Vocational choice: A decision making perspective

We propose a model of vocational choice that can be used for analyzing and guiding the decision processes underlying career and job choices. Our model is based on research in behavioral decision making (BDM), in particular the choice goals framework developed by Bettman, Luce, and Payne (1998). The basic model involves two major processes. First, the selection of a decision strategy according to four choice goals: maximizing decision accuracy, minimizing cognitive effort, minimizing negative emotion, and maximizing justifiability of the decision. Second, the construction of situation-specific preferences, which can reflect irrelevant task and context factors such as the evaluation mode. This basic model is extended to account for social influences and the long decision time typical of most career and job decisions. We review research on vocational choice in light of this model, discuss normative implications for counseling, and outline a research agenda for studying vocational choice from a behavioral decision making perspective.     

In search of the point of no return: the control of response processes

Control processes underlying response inhibition were examined. Six Ss performed a visual choice reaction task and were occasionally presented with a tone that told them to withhold the response. Reaction time results were in agreement with a model that assumes a race between response activation and response inhibition processes. Event-related brain potentials, electromyogram, and continuous response measures showed that responses could be interrupted at any time. Evidence was obtained for two inhibitory mechanisms: inhibition of central activation processes and inhibition of transmission of motor commands from central to peripheral structures. Results have implications for the distinction between controlled and ballistic processes.     

A discounting framework for choice with delayed and probabilistic rewards

When choosing between delayed or uncertain outcomes, individuals discount the value of such outcomes on the basis of the expected time to or the likelihood of their occurrence. In an integrative review of the expanding experimental literature on discounting, the authors show that although the same form of hyperbola-like function describes discounting of both delayed and probabilistic outcomes, a variety of recent findings are inconsistent with a single-process account. The authors also review studies that compare discounting in different populations and discuss the theoretical and practical implications of the findings. The present effort illustrates the value of studying choice involving both delayed and probabilistic outcomes within a general discounting framework that uses similar experimental procedures and a common analytical approach.     

Translating self-efficacy in job performance over time: The role of job crafting

This investigation intends to uncover the mechanisms linking self-efficacy to job performance by analyzing the mediating role of job crafting. A two-wave study on 465 white-collar workers was conducted, matching participants’ self-report data (i.e., self-efficacy and job crafting) with supervisory performance ratings. The structural equation model showed a positive reciprocal relationship between self-efficacy and crafting behaviors. In turn, job crafting predicted performance positively over time. More importantly, results confirmed the mediating role of crafting actions, which may represent the behavioral process underlying the positive effect of self-efficacy on individual outcomes. Practical implications for organizations, such as encouraging bottom-up job design or designing job-crafting interventions, and future research directions are also offered.     

跨期决策中的负折扣现象及其机制

主流跨期决策模型认为, 跨期决策存在一个时间折扣过程。时间折扣是指人们会根据将来获益或损失的延迟时间对其效用进行折扣, 折扣后的效用小于原来的效用, 而负折扣现象违背了时间折扣过程。负折扣现象出现在金钱、非金钱的获益与损失领域, 其可能的解释机制为预期情绪。目前关于负折扣现象的研究, 较少验证其影响机制, 未来的研究可以结合眼动追踪和fMRI技术探讨其机制, 并丰富对负折扣现象的影响因素研究。     

Trying Hard or Hardly Trying: An Analysis of Context Effects in Choice

Several studies have shown that consumer choice is often influenced by the context or the set of alternatives under consideration. Context effects have largely been explained in terms of constructive preferences that are consistent with 2 theoretical accounts—effort minimization and perceptual contrast—that emphasize different underlying motivations. We propose that the effect of time pressure on context effects can be used as a moderating variable to determine which of the 2 motives is supported. Specifically, if context effects bias preferences due to effort minimization, time pressure should increase the magnitude of such effects. In contrast, if context effects arise due to an excessive focus on the relational characteristics of the alternatives provided, time pressure should reduce the magnitude of such effects. We examine this proposition in relation to the compromise effect and a choice between an extreme and an all‐average option. We find that the compromise effect and the preference for an all‐average alternative are both reduced under time pressure. A study using Mouselab provides additional support for the underlying decision mechanisms. We discuss the theoretical implications of this research and explore its consequences for marketers.     

多时点结果跨期选择的决策效应及其心理机制

多时点结果跨期选择涉及两个及两个以上多个时点结果的权衡, 正日益成为跨期选择的研究重点。现有研究主要从两时点结果和序列结果两方面深入探讨了多时点结果跨期选择中的诸多决策效应, 包括：隐藏的零效应、象征效应、额外金额效应、前端金额效应以及序列效应, 并运用序列模型和权衡模型对上述决策效应进行阐释。未来还应深入探索同时涉及损益结果混合的多时点结果跨期选择, 运用决策过程追踪技术揭示决策效应的过程机制。     

When Time Is Money: Decision Behavior under Opportunity-Cost Time Pressure

Decison-making dilemmas can arise because errors may result either from deciding too soon or from delaying decisions too long. Delay can result in lost opportunities or reductions in payoffs from the most accurate decision. This paper investigates decision processes in environments where there is time stress due to the opportunity cost of delaying decisions. First, using computer simulation, the relative accuracy of alternative decision strategies is examined in environments that differ in terms of the levels of opportunity cost of delay. The lexicographic choice rule is shown to be a very attractive decision process in situations where there is opportunity-cost time pressure. Two experiments test the adaptivity of actual decision behavior to the presence or absence of opportunity-cost time pressure along with variations in goals (accuracy emphasized vs. effort savings emphasized), dispersion in probabilities or weights across the outcomes of the choice options, and the degree of correlation among the outcomes. Subjects were generally adaptive to opportunity-cost time pressure. However, failures in adaptivity were identified when choice environment properties with conflicting implications for adaptation were present simultaneously. In particular, under opportunity-cost time pressure, subjects received a lower expected payoff when the goal was to emphasize choice accuracy than when the goal was to emphasize savings in effort. The question of when adaptivity in decision making might fail is discussed.     

Choice and foraging: the effects of accessibility on acceptability.

Pigeons responded in a successive-encounters choice procedure in which accessibility of the less profitable of two outcomes varied either in terms of probability of encounter or search time to encounter (keeping search time to the more profitable outcome constant). When the less profitable outcome was made more probable its acceptance became more likely. However, when search time to encounter the less profitable outcome was shortened, its acceptance became less likely. Both results are consistent with the delay-reduction hypothesis and with an optimality model developed for application to the successive-encounters choice procedure.     

Eyes on the Prize? Evidence of Diminishing Attention to Experienced and Foregone Outcomes in Repeated Experiential Choice

Recently, there has been increased interest in decisions‐from‐experience (where decision makers learn from observing the outcomes of previous choices), which provide valuable insights into the learning and preference construction processes underlying many daily decisions. Several process models have been developed to capture these processes, and while such models often fit the data well, many assume that the decision maker is a vigilant observer, processing each outcome. In two studies, we provide a critical test of this assumption using eye tracking to record directed visual attention when participants choose repeatedly among two options, each time being shown the outcome for their chosen option and for the foregone option. Consistently, we find that the vigilance assumption is not supported, with decision makers often not attending to outcome information. Moreover, (in)attention to outcomes is predictable, with vigilance decreasing as more choices are made, and being greater for obtained than for foregone outcomes, and when options deliver only gains as opposed to losses or a mixture of gains and losses. Furthermore, we find that this variation in attentional allocation plays a central role in the apparent indecisiveness (inconsistency) in choice, with increased attention to foregone outcomes predicting switches to that option on the next choice. Together, these findings highlight the value of eye tracking in investigations of decisions‐from‐experience, providing novel insight into the cognitive processes underlying them. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Valuing Environmental Outcomes: Preferences for Constant or Improving Sequences

Experimental results on individuals' preferences for temporal sequences of environmental outcomes related to air quality and near-shore ocean water quality are compared with preferences for sequences of health and monetary outcomes. Generally, graduate business student participants gave significantly lower ratings to environmental and health sequences (with equal means) that worsened over time, relative to the ratings they gave to sequences that either remained the same or improved over time. This pattern was reversed by the participants when they faced sequences of monetary payments. This preference structure held for both short (5-year) and long (50-year) time horizons, and it was confirmed with choice data. A model proposed by Loewenstein and Prelec for the valuation of sequences of outcomes was applied to the current data set and compared to the traditional discounting model. In all cases, the model that incorporated “Gestalt” features of the sequence (slope and uniformity) performed better than the net present value discounting model at predicting the mean ratings for the sequences in the different domains.     

Career decision status as a predictor of resignation behavior five years later

This paper extends earlier research exploring the relationship between career decision status and work outcomes by examining resignation behavior in a group of new graduates five years after initial appointment. On appointment various measures were collected including career decision status variables. Earlier research identified a significant relationship between a number of important work outcomes and career decision status. In the current study two variables–career decidedness and career choice importance–predicted resignation behavior. Those people who on appointment scored higher on career decidedness or lower on career choice importance were significantly more likely to stay in the organization than others. The implications of this finding for individuals and organizations are discussed.     

Speed choice in relation to speed limit and influences from other drivers

Speeding is a general problem in traffic and exploring factors underlying the choice of speed is an important task. In the present paper, based on data from Swedish drivers on 90 km/h roads, drivers’ attitudes towards speeding and influences from other road users on the drivers’ speed choice were investigated. Unobtrusively recorded vehicle speeds were compared with drivers’ responses to questions concerning their speed choice (N=533). The present investigation replicates a previous study on 50 km/h roads, where a model including measures of attitudes and perceptions about others’ behaviour could explain about 15% of observed behaviour. In the present study, where a majority of the drivers observed exceeded the speed limit, a similar model could explain 41% of the variance in observed speed. Theoretical and practical implications of the results are discussed.     

健康的贫富差距及其内在机制

健康的贫富差距是指不同社会经济地位的群体在各种健康指标上的系统差异。在过去30余年间, 国外研究揭示了社会经济地位与各种健康指标的负向关系, 并从环境特征和个人特征两个层面对健康的贫富差距做出了解释。以实证证据为基础, 研究者提出了社会文化自我模型、储备能力模型和生物−心理−社会整合模型等理论模型, 尝试从综合的视角理解健康的贫富差距。未来研究应该从多学科跨领域的视角, 使用多样化的研究方法和统计技术深化对健康的贫富差距内在机制的理解, 充分考虑社会文化背景的影响和个体差异的存在, 为促进我国的健康公平实践工作提供切实有效的理论指导。     

A comparison of concurrent and retrospective trajectories of commitment to wed

How well do dating partners recall the development of commitment to wed and what factors modify recall? Motivations underlying recall suggest retrospections should demonstrate one of two patterns, developmental change or amplification. A random sample of 464 partners in heterosexual relationships graphed changes in commitment to wed monthly for 8 months and then graphed them from memory. Results supported the developmental change hypothesis; retrospective reports of commitment initially were lower than concurrent reports and increased more steeply over time. This effect was moderated by changes in relationship stage, with advancement showing accuracy of recall, maintenance showing developmental change, and regression showing amplification. Accuracy of recall depends upon relationship history, which has implications for relationship outcomes and reliability of retrospective reports.     

Analysis of multivariate mixed longitudinal data: A flexible latent process approach

Multivariate ordinal and quantitative longitudinal data measuring the same latent construct are frequently collected in psychology. We propose an approach to describe change over time of the latent process underlying multiple longitudinal outcomes of different types (binary, ordinal, quantitative). By relying on random‐effect models, this approach handles individually varying and outcome‐specific measurement times. A linear mixed model describes the latent process trajectory while equations of observation combine outcome‐specific threshold models for binary or ordinal outcomes and models based on flexible parameterized non‐linear families of transformations for Gaussian and non‐Gaussian quantitative outcomes. As models assuming continuous distributions may be also used with discrete outcomes, we propose likelihood and information criteria for discrete data to compare the goodness of fit of models assuming either a continuous or a discrete distribution for discrete data. Two analyses of the repeated measures of the Mini‐Mental State Examination, a 20‐item psychometric test, illustrate the method. First, we highlight the usefulness of parameterized non‐linear transformations by comparing different flexible families of transformation for modelling the test as a sum score. Then, change over time of the latent construct underlying directly the 20 items is described using two‐parameter longitudinal item response models that are specific cases of the approach.     

When good news leads to bad choices

Pigeons and other animals sometimes deviate from optimal choice behavior when given informative signals for delayed outcomes. For example, when pigeons are given a choice between an alternative that always leads to food after a delay and an alternative that leads to food only half of the time after a delay, preference changes dramatically depending on whether the stimuli during the delays are correlated with (signal) the outcomes or not. With signaled outcomes, pigeons show a much greater preference for the suboptimal alternative than with unsignaled outcomes. Key variables and research findings related to this phenomenon are reviewed, including the effects of durations of the choice and delay periods, probability of reinforcement, and gaps in the signal. We interpret the available evidence as reflecting a preference induced by signals for good news in a context of uncertainty. Other explanations are briefly summarized and compared.