Feelings and Consumer Decision Making: The Appraisal‐Tendency Framework

This article presents the Appraisal‐Tendency Framework (ATF; Lerner & Keltner, 2000, 2001; Lerner & Tiedens, 2006) as a basis for predicting the influence of specific emotions on consumer decision making. In particular, the ATF addresses how and why specific emotions carry over from past situations to color future judgments and choices. After reviewing the main assumptions and the 5 main principles of the framework, 2 streams of research are presented. One stream addresses emotional carryover effects on the assessment of risk; the other addresses carryover effects on the assessment of monetary value. Because risk assessment and value assessment are fundamental psychological processes, understanding them has the potential to yield manifold implications for consumer judgment and decision making. The concluding sections highlight limitations and future directions of the framework.     

Appraising the Appraisal‐Tendency Framework

This article considers the consumer research implications of the Appraisal‐Tendency Framework (ATF; Han, Lerner, & Keltner, 2007). This article outlines how the ATF approach could be applied to sequential consumer choices (e.g., effects of emotional responses to stockouts on later decisions) and high‐stakes decisions (e.g., medical decisions). This article also proposes several areas in which the ATF might be extended: examining complex sequences of choices with emotional consequences, considering how incidental and integral emotions interact, characterizing how both evaluative and regulatory mechanisms may influence the effects of emotion on judgment and choice, and extending the range of positive emotions and appraisal dimensions considered.     

Problem Representation,Option Generation,and Poliheuristic Theory: An Experimental Analysis

Poliheuristic (PH) theory has received strong empirical support for its depiction of the option selection process: it explains how leaders evaluate, weigh, and ultimately choose among a set of policy options. But PH theory does not explain how this initial set of options is generated. Foreign policy problem representation (PR) research has shown that the way in which leaders mentally represent decision problems determines which options are generated for consideration. In this article, we develop a hybrid PR‐PH framework in which leaders’ problem representations drive an unconscious screening process that occurs prior to the conscious screening of PH stage 1. We test hypotheses drawn from this framework experimentally and find that key elements of PR (most notably, perceived threat) determine which options consciously occur to decision makers and which options are not generated during a simulated foreign policy crisis.     

Adaptation of a behavioral parent‐training curriculum for Hispanic caregivers: HOT DOCS Español

This article presents the process utilized to adapt a behavioral parent‐training curriculum for Hispanic caregivers from a program currently available in English. Throughout this process, a number of cultural and language elements were identified as needing to be modified to meet the needs of the Hispanic population served. Fidelity and fit were balanced to develop a curriculum acceptable to diverse Hispanic caregivers while also incorporating all the essential elements of a theory‐based approach to training caregivers. The lessons learned from this adaptation may assist others in their attempts to meet the needs of Hispanic families.     

Going beyond a positive–negative dichotomy in judgment and decision‐making research: Insights for framing,counterfactual thinking,and ambivalence

Many areas of judgment and decision‐making research have historically relied on a simple positive–negative dichotomy (e.g., positive vs. negative framing). Although this classic assumption about the conceptual space has contributed to some of the field's more impactful findings (e.g., framing effects), it may also have mistakenly led us to believe that these findings told a complete story about biases in processing positive and negative information. Building on a tradition of theoretical accounts outlining how positive and negative information is more complex, the first part of this paper considers how the following three elements jointly help to tell a more complete story about framing effects: (a) regulatory focus theory's concept of the domain (loss vs. gain) of an outcome, (b) the sequencing of positive and negative frames, and (c) the asymmetric influences of positive and negative evaluative processes. Next, the paper reviews research that has contributed to integrating these elements, highlighting opportunities for further integration to generate new insights for framing effects, risky decision‐making, counterfactual thinking, and ambivalence. The reviewed studies suggest that a more sophisticated conceptualization of positive and negative information contributes to a deeper understanding of the basic processes that govern human judgment and decision‐making.     

The development of adaptive conformity in young children: effects of uncertainty and consensus

Human culture relies on extensive use of social transmission, which must be integrated with independently acquired (i.e. asocial) information for effective decision‐making. Formal evolutionary theory predicts that natural selection should favor adaptive learning strategies, including a bias to copy when uncertain, and a bias to disproportionately copy the majority (known as ‘conformist transmission’). Although the function and causation of these evolved strategies has been comparatively well studied, little is known of their development. We experimentally investigated the development of the bias to copy‐when‐uncertain and conformist transmission in children from the ages of 3 to 7, testing predictions derived from theoretical models. Children first attempted to solve a binary‐choice quantity discrimination task themselves using asocial information, but were then given the decisions of informants, and an opportunity to revise their answer. We investigated whether children's revised judgments were adaptively contingent on (i) the difficulty of the trial and (ii) the degree of consensus amongst informants. As predicted, older but not younger children copied others more on more difficult trials than on easier trials, even though older children also showed a tendency to stick with their initial, asocial decision. We also found that older children, like adults, were disproportionately receptive to non‐total majorities (i.e. were conformist) whereas younger children were receptive only to total (i.e. unanimous) majorities. We conclude that, whilst the mechanism for incorporating social information into decision‐making is initially very blunt, across the course of early childhood it converges on the adaptive learning mechanisms observed in adults and predicted by cultural evolutionary theory. A video abstract of this article can be viewed at http://youtu.be/Qb6JINGYqVk     

Autonomy,Respect, and the Rights of Persons with Disabilities in Crisis

Article 12(2) of the UN Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities guarantees persons with disabilities ‘the right to legal capacity on an equal basis with others in all aspects of life.’ In its General Comment on Article 12, the Committee on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities claims that this guarantee necessitates the abolition of the world's dominant approach to mental capacity law. According to this approach, when a person lacks the mental capacity to make a particular legal decision at the material time, the state authorises a third‐party to make it on her behalf. The Committee declares such substituted decision‐making a violation of the Convention's guarantee of legal capacity on an equal basis, and therefore demands it be replaced by an allegedly non‐discriminatory alternative called supported decision‐making. This article argues that we should reject the Committee's demand in its current form, because the most influential version of the new approach to supported decision‐making suffers from serious conceptual flaws that make it inferior to the mental capacity approach. However, I then argue that the Committee's demand stems from a legitimate ethical concern with respect and equality that ought to inform the CRPD's implementation process.     

Information‐Seeking Strategies,Uncertainty, and Computer‐Mediated Communication

This article argues that existing theory and research on computer‐mediated communication (CMC) provide a limited view of information‐seeking behavior and proposes a conceptual model for its examination via CMC and new media. Although most CMC environments eliminate or severely reduce nonverbal and contextual information available to address uncertainty, form impressions, and develop relationships, such environments offer alternative mechanisms for acquiring social information about others. The article discusses strategies for seeking social information and identifies factors influencing their selection from alternatives, incorporating them into a conceptual model. Finally, 2 promising approaches for examining the effects and effectiveness of social information seeking in CMC are described, with an emphasis on how the proposed conceptual model can aid in the development of each.     

Cultural Chameleons: Biculturals,Conformity Motives,and Decision Making

Prior research suggests that bicultural individuals (i.e., individuals with 2 distinct sets of cultural values) shift the values they espouse depending on cues such as language. The authors examined whether the effects of language extend to a potentially less malleable domain, behavioral decisions, exploring the extent to which bilingual individuals shift the underlying strategies used to resolve choice problems. Although past research has explained language‐induced shifts in terms of knowledge accessibility principles, the motivation to conform to observers’ norms can also drive these shifts. This article focuses on shifts in the general strategy of avoiding losses rather than pursuing gains, which is more often exhibited by Chinese than by Westerners. Five studies of Hong Kong bicultural individuals found that language manipulation (Cantonese vs. English) increases tendencies to choose compromise options in a product decision task, endorse associated decision guidelines that advocate moderation as opposed to extreme paths, defer decision making in problems where it can be postponed, and endorse decision guidelines that advocate caution rather than decisive action. A motivational explanation of these effects was confirmed.     

Participatory and multiobjective development of watercourse regulation—creation of regulation alternatives from stakeholders' preferences

Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods have been recently applied in many environmental problems. Major aims have been to structure and to analyse multifaceted and complex problems, to compare incommensurable impacts and to clarify the preference order of alternatives. Most MCDA tools concentrate on aiding the process of choice among alternatives. The choice usually occurs at the end of the decision‐making process, but MCDA tools can also assist earlier in the process. In this article, we present a new MCDA‐based method in order to create watercourse regulation alternatives, which meet the objectives of stakeholders. The method is comprised of three elements: (1) framework for the planning and learning process partly based on the Image Theory, (2) analysis and evaluation of ecological, social and economic impacts of regulation, and (3) visual interactive Excel implementation of value‐tree analysis (REGAIM‐model). We show how the method was applied in a complex watercourse regulation development project in Finland. Altogether 36 face‐to‐face computer‐aided interviews were undertaken with the REGAIM model with representatives of different stakeholder groups. We present the main results of the interviews and discuss how these interviews supported generation of new watercourse regulation alternatives. We also describe the advantages of the new approach in the participatory watercourse management, and discuss the applicability of Image Theory in the watercourse regulation context. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The development of perceptual averaging: learning what to do,not just how to do it

The mature visual system condenses complex scenes into simple summary statistics (e.g., average size, location, orientation, etc.). However, children, often perform poorly on perceptual averaging tasks. Children's difficulties are typically thought to represent the suboptimal implementation of an adult‐like strategy. This paper examines another possibility: that children actually make decisions in a qualitatively different way to adults (optimal implementation of a non‐ideal strategy). Ninety children (6–7, 8–9, 10–11 years) and 30 adults were asked to locate the middle of randomly generated dot‐clouds. Nine plausible decision strategies were formulated, and each was fitted to observers' trial‐by‐trial response data (Reverse Correlation). When the number of visual elements was low (N < 6), children used a qualitatively different decision strategy from adults: appearing to “join up the dots” and locate the gravitational center of the enclosing shape. Given denser displays, both children and adults used an ideal strategy of arithmetically averaging individual points. Accounting for this difference in decision strategy explained 29% of children's lower precision. These findings suggest that children are not simply suboptimal at performing adult‐like computations, but may at times use sensible, but qualitatively different strategies to make perceptual judgments. Learning which strategy is best in which circumstance might be an important driving factor of perceptual development.     

Group‐analytic network process for balancing stakeholder views on fire protection of steel‐framed buildings

To select appropriate fire protection options for buildings during their design stage, economic, safety, environmental, and societal criteria need to be accounted for. The divergent and sometimes conflictual desires from different fire design stakeholders involved in the process present a multicriteria decision problem. Design decision criteria and fire protection options can be interdependent, and so there is a need to manage these desires with an advanced decision analysis technique, thereby reducing uncertainties in the complex decision‐making process. The aim of this paper is to use the weighted/geometric mean method‐analytic network process (W/GMM‐ANP) to balance the opinions of fire design stakeholders extracted from 42 structured stakeholder interviews on selecting the most suitable fire protection option for buildings constructed of steel frames. Different categories of interdependent decision elements were developed from 22 design decision criteria and 5 proposed fire protection options to produce a network of decision clusters for multicriteria decision analysis. In the synthesis and ranking of fire protection options, the W/GMM‐ANP accounted for the multiple interdependencies of weighted and unweighted stakeholder desires and managed the complexity of the decision‐making problem. The technique is proposed for approaching suitable group decisions in structural fire design of steel‐framed buildings as well as other performance‐based engineering decision making that may involve multidisciplinary stakeholders.     

Caution! Warnings as a Useless Countermeasure to Reduce Overconfidence? An Experimental Evaluation in Light of Enhanced and Dynamic Warning Designs

People often display excessive overconfidence when providing interval estimates, which biases decision‐making. Research has investigated the various measures to effectively reduce overconfidence, and the use of warnings has subsequently been considered to have a negligible reduction effect. We demonstrate with two separate experiments that the impact of warnings has to be reviewed in light of dynamic warning designs and cognitive warning process models. In experiment 1, in contrast to previous studies that only used unstructured warnings, we implement a warning incorporating some core elements of a structured warning design based on research in the fields of human factors and ergonomics. Furthermore, accounting for recent developments in the warning literature, we distinguish between static and dynamic warning design. In experiment 2, we examine the effectiveness of different elements of dynamic warnings. We show that a significantly higher reduction of overconfidence can be achieved by combining a structured warning content with a dynamic stimulus change to increase the warning's noticeability. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of sleep deprivation on executive functioning,cognitive abilities,metacognitive confidence,and decision making

Performance on many decision‐making tasks is underpinned by metacognitive monitoring, cognitive abilities, and executive functioning. Fatigue‐inducing conditions, such as sleep loss, compromise these factors, leading to decline in decision performance. Using a 40‐hr sleep deprivation protocol, we examined these factors and the resulting decision performance. Thirteen Australian Army male volunteers (aged 20–30 years) were tested at multiple time points on psychomotor vigilance, inhibitory control, task switching, working memory, short‐term memory, fluid intelligence, and decision accuracy and confidence in a medical diagnosis‐making test. Assessment took place in the morning and night over two consecutive days, during which participants were kept awake. Consistent with previous work, cognitive performance declined after a night without sleep. Extending previous findings, self‐regulation and self‐monitoring suffered significantly greater declines immediately after the sleepless night. These results indicate that the known decline in complex decision‐making performance under fatigue‐inducing conditions might be facilitated by metacognitive rather than cognitive mechanisms.     

Externalism,Slow Switching and Privileged Self‐Knowledge1

Recent discussions of externalism about mental content have been dominated by the question whether it undermines the intuitively plausible idea that we have knowledge of the contents of our thoughts. In this article I focus on one main line of reasoning (the so‐called ‘slow switching argument’) for the thesis that externalism and self‐knowledge are incompatible. After criticizing a number of influential responses to the argument, I set out to explain why it fails. It will be claimed that the argument trades on an ambiguity, and that only by incorporating certain controversial assumptions does it stand a chance of establishing its conclusion. Finally, drawing on an analogy with Benacerraf's challenge to Platonism, I shall offer some reasons as to why the slow switching argument fails to reveal the real source of tension between externalism and privileged self‐knowledge.     

Invited Review—Survey of Value‐Focused Thinking: Applications,Research Developments and Areas for Future Research

Criteria are the central focus of multi‐criteria decision analysis. Many authors have suggested using our values (or preferences) to define the criteria we use to evaluate alternatives. Value‐focused thinking (VFT) is an important philosophy that advocates a more fundamental view of values in our decision making in our private and professional lives. VFT proponents advocate starting first with our values and then using our values to create decision opportunities, evaluate alternatives and finally develop improved alternatives. It has been 20 years since VFT was first introduced by Ralph Keeney. This paper surveys the VFT literature to provide a comprehensive summary of the significant applications, describe the main research developments and identify areas for future research. We review the scope and magnitude of VFT applications and the key developments in theory since VFT was introduced in 1992 and found 89 papers written in 29 journals from 1992 to 2010. We develop about 20 research questions that include the type of article (application, theory, case study, etc.), the size of the decision space (which, when given, ranged from $200K to billions of dollars), the contribution documented in the article (application benefits) and the research contributions (categorized by preferences, uncertainties and alternatives). After summarizing the answers to these questions, we conclude the paper with suggestions for improving VFT applications and potential future research. We found a large number of significant VFT applications and several useful research contributions. We also found an increasing number of VFT papers written by international authors. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Team confidence,motivated information processing,and dynamic group decision making

According to the Motivated Information Processing in Groups (MIP‐G) model, groups should perform ambiguous (non‐ambiguous) tasks better when they have high (low) epistemic motivation and concomitant tendencies to engage in systematic (heuristic) information processing and exchange. The authors tested this prediction in an experiment with four‐person groups performing a complex and dynamic decision making task. Group confidence was measured after extensive training and prior to actual group decision‐making. Task ambiguity was manipulated. Results showed that when task ambiguity was low, group confidence indeed benefits decision quality and group performance. But when task ambiguity was high, group confidence hurt decision quality and group performance. Implications for theory and practice are discussed. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Strategic hybrid approach for selecting suppliers of high‐density polyethylene

Supplier selection is an important process for companies in the plastic sector due to its influence on firm performance and competitiveness. For a proper selection, a number of criteria from different aspects need to be considered by decision makers. Yet, as in different fields, because there are numerous criteria and alternatives to be considered in the plastic industry, choosing an appropriate multicriteria decision‐making approach has become a critical step for selecting suppliers. Therefore, the aim of this research is to define the most suitable supplier of high‐density polyethylene through the integration of powerful multicriteria decision‐making methods. For this purpose, the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP) is initially applied to define initial weights of factors and subfactors under uncertainty, followed by the use of decision‐making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) to evaluate interrelations between the elements of the hierarchy. Then, after combining FAHP and DEMATEL to calculate the final contributions of both factors and subfactors on the basis of interdependence, the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution is used to assess the supplier alternatives. In addition, this paper also explores the differences between the judgments of decision makers for both AHP and DEMATEL methods. To do these, a case study is presented to demonstrate the validity of the proposed approach.     

Thinking styles and risky decision‐making: Further exploration of the affect–probability weighting link

People usually overweight small probabilities and underweight large probabilities leading to the familiar inverse S‐shaped weighting function. This research explores the link between affect and the structure of probability weighting from the perspective of thinking dispositions, a concept central to dual system theories of reasoning. The effects of affective priming and cognitive load on both probability weighting and the value function are also examined. The evidence suggests that thinking styles do have predictive implications for risky decision‐making. Participants with a more affective thinking style tend to be more risk‐seeking in small probability gambles. However, increasing access to the affective system by affective priming or cognitive load manipulations tend to reduce risk‐seeking behavior in small probability gambles as well as reduce risk averse behavior in large probability gambles. Previous research, manipulating the affective nature of lottery outcomes, found evidence for an increase in curvature (more overweighting of small probabilities and more underweighting of large probabilities) of the weighting function for affect‐rich outcomes, lending support to a hope‐and‐fear deconstruction of probability weighting. The present research suggests that increased anticipatory emotions characterized by the elevation of the weighting function (more overweighting at all probabilities) is also important and could sometimes be more significant than hope‐and‐fear in decision‐making under risk. An integrated approach incorporating the impact of affect on all three, the elevation and curvature of probability weighting as well as the curvature of the value function explains the empirical findings. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Weak Consistency for Ensuring Priority Vectors Reliability

Consistency and transitivity are important and leading research topics in the study of decision‐making in terms of pairwise comparison matrices. In this paper, we search for conditions that, in case of inconsistency, guarantee ordinal compatibility between ordinal ranking (actual ranking) derived from a transitive matrix and cardinal rankings provided by the most usual priority vectors proposed in the scientific literature. We provide the notion of weak consistency; it is a condition weaker than consistency and stronger than transitivity and ensures that vectors associated with a matrix, by means of a strictly increasing synthesis functional, provide a preference order, on the related set of decision elements, equal to the actual ranking. This notion extends, to the case in which the decision‐maker can be indifferent between two or more alternatives/criteria, weak consistency introduced in previous papers under constraint of no indifference. Finally, we introduce an order relation on the rows of the matrix, that is, a simple order if and only if weak consistency is satisfied; this simple order allows us to easily determine the actual ranking on the set of decision elements. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.