The ‘healthy’ family*

The importance of concepts and hypotheses about ‘healthy’ families for family therapists is stressed. A number of different approaches to defining ‘health’ is described. Concepts and hypotheses of family therapists from different schools are integrated into a more encompassing theory, thereby focusing on statements with respect to personality, cognition, behaviour, communication, relationship, role, family system and network. It is noted that family therapy literature lacks information about ‘healthy’ families. Moreover, nearly all statements are non-scientific and normative as they are not founded on empirical research.     

The cost of richness: the effect of the size and diversity of decision sets on post-decision regret

Decision making is often made difficult by the knowledge that one has to live with the outcomes of one's choices and with the regret that these might engender. Formal theories propose that regret is proportional to the difference between the outcome of the option chosen and the expected outcome of the next best alternative that one may have chosen instead. It follows that the number of alternatives available for choice does not affect post-decisional regret. In this study, however, the authors proposed that regret is related to the comparison between the alternative chosen and the union of the positive attributes of the alternatives rejected. This general proposition yielded 2 hypotheses: (a) the larger number of alternatives from which one can choose and (b) the more diverse those alternatives are, the stronger the regret that an unsatisfactory choice would cause. These hypotheses were tested and supported by 4 experiments.     

Assimilation and contrast in perceptual judgments

An attempt is made to specify the differential conditions underlying two opposite context effects: assimilation and contrast. Assimilation occurs when the judgment of the current stimulus shifts in the direction of the preceding stimulus; contrast occurs when the judgment shifts in the opposite direction. Both effects are brought together and demonstrated in a single paradigm. It is hypothesized that the number of contextual stimuli is the differentiating factor. Two alternative hypotheses, the differential stimulation hypothesis and the temporal position hypothesis, are also tested. The differential stimulation hypothesis proposes that the intensity difference between the contextual and judged stimulus determines whether assimilation or contrast occur, and the temporal position hypothesis proposes that varying the temporal position of the contextual stimulus is the critical factor. While the results do not support either of these alternative hypotheses, it is shown that the number of contextual stimuli does determine whether assimilation or contrast occur.     

Conditional reasoning processes in a logical deduction game

Two experiments examined the role of conditional reasoning in the logical deduction game, Mastermind. An analysis suggested that Modus Tollens (MT) reasoning could be used to determine the code structure, for example, in determining if any of the colours in the code are repeated. Consistent with this analysis, Experiment 1 showed that only MT errors are correlated with the number of hypotheses advanced in Mastermind. A subsequent analysis showed that conditional reasoning such as Affirming the Consequent (AC) and Denying the Antecedent (DA) could lead to particularly damaging inferences only when the code was four different colours. When that was known before play, Experiment 2 showed that AC errors, but not MT errors, were significantly correlated with Mastermind hypotheses advanced. A stepwise multiple regression analysis supported these findings: When the solvers knew they were playing a four-colour code, there was a slight diminution in the variance explained by MT errors, and a significant increase in the variance explained by AC errors. An analysis of the number of different possible codes that could be consistent with hypotheses actually played showed that the number of such codes is far fewer when the code consists of four different colours than when its structure is not known. This analysis suggests that reasoners are therefore unlikely to discover many alternative causes for the feedback given when the code consists of four different colours, and it is under these conditions that humans are most likely to engage in AC reasoning.     

Decision making and professional experience: an experimental study of generating, evaluating and modifying diagnostic hypotheses

Experimental investigations on generation, evaluation, and modification of diagnostic hypotheses in symptom pattern classification revealed in different domains (e.g. clinical decision making) that reasoning in non-experts and experts differ in the 'content' (e.g. issue-directed substance of concepts) rather than in the 'form' of reasoning (e.g. number, specificity of hypotheses). These results are essentially accounted for by the experts' upper-level flexibility in the interpretation of data. In a two-factorial design (competence x predictive value of data), patients' clinical data with varying predictive value were given singularly in succession to two groups (experts and novices; n = 20) of subjects. The task of the subjects was (a) to name their assumptions and (b) give a summarizing decision on the--probable--diagnostic category of hypothetical cases. Results: Between experts and novices no difference was found in the number and degree of specification of hypotheses; in summarizing decisions, experts considered more categories as plausible than novices; on patient data with low predictive value, experts considered more specific categories. The moment of hypothesis formation depends not on the competence level but on the predictive value of the patient's clinical data.     

Truthlikeness for hypotheses expressed in terms of n quantitative variables

A qualitative theory of truthlikeness, based on a family of quantitative measures, is developed for hypotheses that are concerned with the values of a finite number of real-valued quantities. Representing hypotheses by subsets of ⁿ, I first show that a straightforward application of the basic ideas of the similarity approach to truthlikeness does not work out for hypotheses with zero n-dimensional Lebesgue measure. However, it is easy to give a counterpart for the average measure preferred by Pavel Tichý and Graham Oddie in terms of Hausdorff measures. The task of finding analogies of the min-sum-measure preferred by Ilkka Niiniluoto is more interesting. I present and discuss analogies of two different types for this measure.     

Evaluation of evidence for sufficiency, for necessity, and for necessity-and-sufficiency

We report two experiments with 120 undergraduate subjects. The tasks presented clearly articulated hypotheses concerning necessity, sufficiency, and necessity-and-sufficiency, together with possible combinations of treatment conditions, and required subjects to judge whether, according to the hypotheses, the relevant outcomes will occur, will not occur, or might occur. The patterns of responses reveal how subjects understand the extensions of the concepts, i.e. what each hypothesis permits, requires, and excludes. Only necessity-and-sufficiency hypotheses generally led to logically adequate responses, and the most typical error for both necessity hypotheses and sufficiency hypotheses was to treat them as extensionally equivalent to necessity-and-sufficiency. This error tendency was more evident for necessity than for sufficiency hypotheses. Further, although responses to both necessity hypotheses and sufficiency hypotheses were affected by the complexity of the hypothesized conditions, responses to necessity-and-sufficiency hypotheses were not. We argue that the results are not a function of a response bias but reflect differences in the way the hypotheses are understood. Implications for the causal attribution literature are discussed.     

Experimental mathematics, computers and the a priori

In recent decades, experimental mathematics has emerged as a new branch of mathematics. This new branch is defined less by its subject matter, and more by its use of computer assisted reasoning. Experimental mathematics uses a variety of computer assisted approaches to verify or prove mathematical hypotheses. For example, there is “number crunching” such as searching for very large Mersenne primes, and showing that the Goldbach conjecture holds for all even numbers less than 2 × 1018. There are “verifications” of hypotheses which, while not definitive proofs, provide strong support for those hypotheses, and there are proofs involving an enormous amount of computer hours, which cannot be surveyed by any one mathematician in a lifetime. There have been several attempts to argue that one or another aspect of experimental mathematics shows that mathematics now accepts empirical or inductive methods, and hence shows mathematical apriorism to be false. Assessing this argument is complicated by the fact that there is no agreed definition of what precisely experimental mathematics is. However, I argue that on any plausible account of ’experiment’ these arguments do not succeed.     

Behavioral changes in teachers as a function of student feedback: A case for the achievement motivation theory?

A field experiment tested whether teachers change their behavior when they receive student ratings as feedback on their own behavior and on the behavior of a fictitious ideal teacher (from the students' perspective). Explanation of such behavioral changes in the form of theories of cognitive balance, as suggested by other authors, has been criticized. As an alternative explanation, achievement motivation theory has been considered, from which a series of hypotheses has been deduced. Overall, most of the hypotheses were not confirmed, and it was concluded that the effectiveness of feedback on behavioral changes in teachers cannot be judged to be especially high, although a number of theoretical and methodological qualifications were added.     

Story Remembering Among Children

Abstract

The hypothesis that belief in the paranormal is related to reasoning errors was tested. College students were administered the Belief in the Paranormal Scale (Jones, Russell, &; Nickel, 1977) and a syllogistic reasoning test. A slight but statistically significant correlation was observed between BPS scores and the number of errors made on the reasoning test. This relationship was larger but not significantly so for reasoning items with paranormal content than for symbolic content. An a priori comparison indicated that the relationship between BPS scores and reasoning errors was significantly greater for problems that required subjects to determine the validity of hypotheses given statements of evidence than for problems that required subjects to determine the validity of deduced empirical predictions given hypotheses. Thus, belief in the paranormal among college students was very moderately correlated with reasoning ability and was observed most clearly when the reasoning problems contained paranormal content and when they required subjects to determine the validity of hypotheses given evidential statements.     

An investigation of some hypotheses concerning rape and murder

The study compared three groups of incarcerated criminals, including 40 men convicted of rape, 40 convicted of murder (of another male) and 40 sentenced for property offenses. A number of personality and attitude scales, behavioral records and a binocular rivalry test were used to test various hypotheses concerning rape and murder. Rapists and murderers did not differ on general control of aggressive behavior but both showed more control than convicted felons. In the binocular rivalry task rapists and murderers were less prone to perceive sexuality than property felons, but the three groups did not differ on perceived aggression toward women. Rapists and murderers were more prone to deny feminine traits than property felons. Rapists had heterosexual experience with more partners than property felons. The three groups did not differ on attitudes toward women or on disinhibition as a mode of sensation seeking. In general, rapists resemble murderers more than ordinary felons and the evidence does not support hypotheses that characterize them as significantly more hostile toward women than are other types of criminals.     

Epistemic and Dialectical Models of Begging the Question

This paper addresses the problem posed by the current split between the two opposed hypotheses in the growing literature on the fallacy of begging the question the epistemic hypothesis, based on knowledge and belief, and the dialectical one, based on formal dialogue systems. In the first section, the nature of split is explained, and it is shown how each hypothesis has developed. To get the beginning reader up to speed in the literature, a number of key problematic examples are analyzed illustrating how both approaches can be applied. Useful tools are brought to bear on them, including the automated argument diagramming system Araucaria, and profiles of dialogue used to represent circular argumentation in a dialogue tableau format. These tools are used to both to model circular reasoning and to provide the contextual evidence needed to properly determine whether the circular reasoning in a given case is better judged fallacious or not. A number of technical problems that have impeded the development of both hypotheses are studied. One central problem is the distinction between argument and explanation. It is concluded that the best way to move forward and solve these problems is to reformulate the two hypotheses in such a way that they might be able to co-exist. On this basis, a unified methodology is proposed that allows each hypothesis to move forward as a legitimate avenue for research using the same tools.     

Constraints Children Place on Word Meanings

This paper views lexical acquisition as a problem of induction: Children must figure out the meaning of a given term, given the large number of possible meanings any term could have. If children had to consider, evaluate, and rule out an unlimited number of hypotheses about each word in order to figure out its meaning, learning word meanings would be hopeless. Children must, therefore, be limited in the kinds of hypotheses they consider as possible word meanings. This paper considers three possible constraints on word meanings: (1) The whole object assumption which leads children to interpret novel terms as labels for objects—not parts, substances, or other properties of objects: (2) The taxonomic assumption which leads children to consider labels as referring to objects of like kind, rather than to objects that are thematically related: and (3) The mutual exclusivity assumption which leads children to expect each object to have only one label. Some of the evidence for these constraints is reviewed.     

A reassessment of state-level covariates of militia groups

This study investigated state-level variation in the number of right-wing militia groups. We built on prior quantitative examinations by more carefully operationalizing theoretical concepts and testing alternative hypotheses offered to account for the etiology of social movements generally and of militias specifically. Using negative binomial regression, we found that, consistent with previous research, states with higher levels of farm job loss had more militia groups. However, in contrast to prior studies, we did not find gun culture, hospitable political climate, female empowerment, or general economic deprivation to be associated with the number of militia groups. We also found no relationship between the number of militia groups and levels of fundamentalist religious culture and minority empowerment. Our study was the first to test the effects of social disorganization on the number of militias in a state, and we found the two to be positively and significantly associated. We situate our results in the theoretical and empirical literature and outline two challenges for future research. First, scholars must operationalize variables carefully since different measures of the same theoretical concept may result in diverging conclusions. Second, since one major factor (i.e., social disorganization) found in this study to be associated with the number of militia groups in a state was examined here for the first time, it is important for researchers to continue to investigate new hypotheses.     

Pollyanna and the Glad Game: A potential contribution to positive psychology

The popular 1913 novel, Pollyanna, introduced the Glad Game. Its author showed how the use of the Glad Game could contribute to the mastery of stressful life events and daily hassles. The Glad Game consists of developing the habit of not dwelling on dysphoric emotions in relation to life's disappointments or threats. The player is taught not to deny negative emotions, but to turn one's attention away and to think of something one could feel glad about in the situation. Eleanor Hodgman Porter emphasized that the Glad Game could be taught. Based on the novel, a number of testable psychological hypotheses, potentially useful to practitioners, can be derived. These include the value of persistence in using a psychological mediator to arouse hope, and personality characteristics consequent to the use of the Glad Game. Popular writings are fruitful sources of insight and hypotheses about psychological processes.     

Numerical Subtraction in the Pigeon: Evidence for a Linear Subjective Number Scale

When humans and animals compare two numbers, responding is faster and more accurate with increasing numerical disparity and decreasing numerical size. Researchers explaining these distance and size effects often assume that the subjective number continuum is logarithmically compressed. An alternative hypothesis is that the subjective number continuum is linear, but positions farther along it are proportionately fuzzier, that is, less precisely located. These two hypotheses have been treated as functionally equivalent because of their similar empirical predictions. The current experiment sought to resolve this issue with a paradigm originally developed to address the subjective representation of time (time left). In our adaptation, pigeons were required to compare a constant number with the number remaining after a numerical subtraction. Our results indicate that subjective number is linearly, not logarithmically, related to objective number.     

Where do hypotheses come from?

Why are human inferences sometimes remarkably close to the Bayesian ideal and other times systematically biased? In particular, why do humans make near-rational inferences in some natural domains where the candidate hypotheses are explicitly available, whereas tasks in similar domains requiring the self-generation of hypotheses produce systematic deviations from rational inference. We propose that these deviations arise from algorithmic processes approximating Bayes’ rule. Specifically in our account, hypotheses are generated stochastically from a sampling process, such that the sampled hypotheses form a Monte Carlo approximation of the posterior. While this approximation will converge to the true posterior in the limit of infinite samples, we take a small number of samples as we expect that the number of samples humans take is limited. We show that this model recreates several well-documented experimental findings such as anchoring and adjustment, subadditivity, superadditivity, the crowd within as well as the self-generation effect, the weak evidence, and the dud alternative effects. We confirm the model’s prediction that superadditivity and subadditivity can be induced within the same paradigm by manipulating the unpacking and typicality of hypotheses. We also partially confirm our model’s prediction about the effect of time pressure and cognitive load on these effects.     

Effects of number and strength of competing solutions on the perceptual interference effect

Five-letter fragments of recently studied 8-letter words are easier to solve when presented all at once than when clarified from a more degraded form (i.e., by starting with a 2-letter fragment and adding letters). The competition explanation proposes that highly degraded stimuli activate alternative hypotheses that interfere with target identification. In Experiment 1, the number of solutions that fit the initial, 2-letter fragment was varied. Performance was better in the 2-solution than in the 1-solution condition. In Experiment 2, distractor solutions (solutions that fit the 2-letter fragment but not subsequent fragments) were either primed (previously studied) or unprimed. Solution performance was better when distractors were primed rather than unprimed. Perceptual interference appears to result from negative feedback operating on a prematurely activated correct hypothesis, rather than from competition between hypotheses.     

The production of determiners: evidence from French.

In numerous languages determiner forms depend not only on semantic information but also on several other kinds of information, such as the grammatical gender of the controlling noun or the phonological properties of the context. In the present research we contrasted two possible accounts of determiner retrieval: one in which every type of required information is bundled into a unitized representation for determiner retrieval and one in which each type of information can individually activate determiner forms. These alternative hypotheses were investigated in three experiments in which native speakers of French named pictures with simple [determiner + noun] or complex [determiner + adjective + noun] noun phrases. In the experiments, the properties of the contextual cues that drive the retrieval of the determiner were manipulated - for example, we manipulated the number of determiner forms that are compatible with a given grammatical gender and the number of grammatical genders that a given determiner form can be used with. Neither hypothesis can fully account for the results of the three experiments. However, a hybrid hypothesis that combines the principal features of the two hypotheses provides a good account of the data.