Hypnotic interviewing: the best way to interview eyewitnesses?

It has been suggested that hypnosis techniques may have the potential to enhance eyewitness memory in forensic investigations. However, laboratory research shows that increases in recall with hypnosis techniques are often associated with decreases in accuracy, false confidence in incorrect information, and increased suggestibility to leading questions and misleading post-event information. These problems limit the usefulness of hypnosis as an interviewing procedure. However, in practical investigations, many factors associated with hypnosis, apart from the hypnotic induction itself, might lead to memory enhancement compared with standard police interviews. For example, hypnotic interviewers, because of their psychological, clinical, and interpersonal skills, may be better interviewers than police officers. They may use effective interviewing strategies such as those associated with the “cognitive interview”; a procedure which has the potential to enhance recall by approximately 35% without the problems of memory distortion associated with hypnosis. It is concluded, therefore, that a cognitive interview procedure should be used in preference to hypnosis. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Vector Reliability: A new Approach to Epistemic Justification

Critics of reliability theories of epistemic justificationoften claim that the `generality problem' is an insurmountabledifficulty for such theories. The generality problem is theproblem of specifying the level of generality at which abelief-forming process is to be described for the purposeof assessing its reliability. This problem is not asintractable as it seems. There are illuminating solutionsto analogous problems in the ethics literature. Reliabilistsought to attend to utilitarian approaches to choices betweeninfinite utility streams; they also ought to attend towelfarist approaches to social choice situations that donot demand full aggregation of individual welfares.These analogies suggest that the traditional `single number'approach to reliability is misguided. I argue that a newapproach – the `vector reliability' approach – is preferable.Vector reliability theories associate target beliefs withreliability vectors – that is, structured collections ofreliability numbers – and construct criteria of epistemicjustification that appeal to these vectors. The bulk of thetheoretical labor involved in a reliability account of epistemicjustification is thus transferred from picking a uniquereliability number to constructing a plausible criterionof epistemic justification.     

Androgyny and Sex-Typing as Continuous Independent Factors,and a Glimpse of the Future

Models for operationalizing the sex-role constructs androgyny and sex-typing are reviewed, and problems discussed. A new (principal components) model representing an exact solution is derived and shown to solve existing problems. In this model, androgyny is a function of the sum of standardized instrumentality and expressiveness scores, and sex-typing a function of the difference between these scores. Formal operationalization of these constructs reveals that they may have theoretical utility in only very contrived contingencies, and an alternative profile matching model is proposed. This latter theory, which is not yet fully specified, hypothesizes that an individual's performance is maximized when the critical operating characteristics of a contingency (i.e., instrumental and expressive behaviors required for maximal performance to result) exactly match the individual's specific instrumental and expressive predispositions, and that performance decreases as the discrepancy between the instrumental/expressive profiles of the individual and the contingency increases.     

Modification of excessive drinking by cue exposure

The value of an individual case study depends to a large extent on the nature of the predictions which are tested. If, for example, behaviour is modified by a method which flies in the face of current theory and practice, then it is worth reporting, and if detailed predictions about day-to-day changes are confirmed, so much the better. This individual case study was designed to test the possibility that excessive drinking behaviour can be modified by prolonged exposure to drinking cues.Our approach is based on the hypothesis that addictive behaviour is analogous to discriminated operants. We are also making the assumption that drinking, in the alcoholic, is frequently reinforced through the avoidance of unpleasant consequences (e.g. an escalation in anxiety, frustration or withdrawal symptoms) and that these avoidance responses are discriminated since they are triggered only by certain cues.Avoidance learning has been investigated in humans and animals for at least 50 years but in recent years strong evidence has accumulated which suggests a particular modification procedure. First, it has now been demonstrated that, in animals, a very effective extinction procedure involves exposure to the discriminative stimulus (i.e. cue) whilst blocking the avoidance response (Baum, 1969). Second, psychologists have considered obsessive-compulsive rituals to be analogous to avoidance responses (Hodgson and Rachman, 1972). Compulsive gas-tap checking, for example, avoids both catastrophic events and also unpleasant emotional states. During the last ten years an effective method of modifying obsessive-compulsive rituals has been developed which involves exposure to significant cues followed by response prevention which is either supervised (Meyer, 1966) or self-imposed (Rachman et al., 1971; Hodgson et al., 1972). The same method has also been successful in the modification of compulsive masturbation (Hodgson and Rachman, 1975).     

CHull: A generic convex-hull-based model selection method

When analyzing data, researchers are often confronted with a model selection problem (e.g., determining the number of components/factors in principal components analysis [PCA]/factor analysis or identifying the most important predictors in a regression analysis). To tackle such a problem, researchers may apply some objective procedure, like parallel analysis in PCA/factor analysis or stepwise selection methods in regression analysis. A drawback of these procedures is that they can only be applied to the model selection problem at hand. An interesting alternative is the CHull model selection procedure, which was originally developed for multiway analysis (e.g., multimode partitioning). However, the key idea behind the CHull procedure—identifying a model that optimally balances model goodness of fit/misfit and model complexity—is quite generic. Therefore, the procedure may also be used when applying many other analysis techniques. The aim of this article is twofold. First, we demonstrate the wide applicability of the CHull method by showing how it can be used to solve various model selection problems in the context of PCA, reduced K-means, best-subset regression, and partial least squares regression. Moreover, a comparison of CHull with standard model selection methods for these problems is performed. Second, we present the CHULL software, which may be downloaded from http://ppw.kuleuven.be/okp/software/CHULL/, to assist the user in applying the CHull procedure.     

Hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation for cumulative prospect theory

Cumulative prospect theory (CPT Tversky & Kahneman, 1992) has provided one of the most influential accounts of how people make decisions under risk. CPT is a formal model with parameters that quantify psychological processes such as loss aversion, subjective values of gains and losses, and subjective probabilities. In practical applications of CPT, the model’s parameters are usually estimated using a single-participant maximum likelihood approach. The present study shows the advantages of an alternative, hierarchical Bayesian parameter estimation procedure. Performance of the procedure is illustrated with a parameter recovery study and application to a real data set. The work reveals that without particular constraints on the parameter space, CPT can produce loss aversion without the parameter that has traditionally been associated with loss aversion. In general, the results illustrate that inferences about people’s decision processes can crucially depend on the method used to estimate model parameters.     

Suicide Risk Assessment and Risk Formulation Part I: A Focus on Suicide Ideation in Assessing Suicide Risk

The main procedure used by clinicians to determine whether an individual may be at risk of suicidal behaviors is the suicide risk assessment (SRA). The purpose of the SRA is to identify risk and protective factors that then provide the data for the formulation of suicide risk. The suicide risk formulation (SRF) assigns a level of suicide risk that ideally leads to triage and treatment deemed appropriate for that level of risk. Some of the problems with the SRA are explored here, with an emphasis on addressing the over reliance on communicated suicide ideation, and recommendations are made for improvements. Part II of this article (Berman & Silverman, 2013, also appears in this issue of STLB) examines the process of an SRF and, similarly, makes recommendations to improve clinical practice toward the desired end of saving lives.     

The critical role of group studies in neuropsychology: comprehension regularities in Broca's aphasia

We reexamine the empirical record of the comprehension abilities of Broca's aphasic patients. We establish clear, commonly accepted, selection criteria and obtain a pool of results. We then subject these results to a detailed statistical analysis and show that these patients comprehend certain canonical sentences (actives, subject relatives, and clefts with agentive predicates) at above-chance levels, whereas comprehension of sentences that contain deviations from canonicity (passives, object-gap relatives, and clefts) is distinct and is at chance. That the latter is the case, and patients indeed guess at such structures, we show by comparing the distribution of individual results in passive comprehension to that of a model for such guessing-an analogous series of tosses of an unbiased coin. The two distributions are virtually identical. We conclude that the group's performance is stable, and well-delineated, despite intersubject variation whose source is now identified. This means that certain comprehension tests may not always be used for the diagnosis of individual patients, but they do characterize the group. It also means that group studies are not just a valid option in neuropsychology; they are a must, since demonstrations like ours indiciate very clearly that single-case studies may be misleading. As we show, the findings from any one patient, without the context of a group, may give a distorted picture of the pathological reality. Our conclusions thus promote studies of groups of brain-damaged patients as a central tool for the investigation of brain/behavior relations.     

Usefulness and limitation of spatial representation

What discussed herein is not an “open problem” in the sense of mathematics. It is a problem that psychologists should keep in mind when presenting a formal model. A model will be useful for phenomena on which the model has been formulated. However, the model may contain a number of remaining properties that not necessarily represent related psychological phenomena adequately. The situation is analogous to that the particle model of light does not represent diffraction whereas the wave model of light is not adequate for the Compton effect. When presenting a model, mathematical psychologists should be especially keen about this point. The problem is discussed with a concrete example.     

Analogical inference: the role of awareness in abstract learning

The acquisition and flexible expression of complex relations is often attributed to declarative memory processes. The extent to which such tasks may be done implicitly has not been sufficiently explored. We report that analogical or transfer processes may be accomplished implicitly. Our analogy task requires acquisition of a transverse patterning set, and then tests for transfer on an unrelated set. Participants learn the relations A>B (given a choice between A and B choose A) and B>C and the unrelated set X>Y and Y>Z. Only the experimental group was trained on the transverse pair C>A. At test all trials are unreinforced: A?B, B?C, A?C, X?Y, Y?Z, X?Z. Analogy was observed when the experimental group chose Z>X at greater frequency than controls who uniformly chose X>Z. Analogy occurred with or without awareness of the transfer. The capacity to transfer relations to an analogous set demonstrates a level of flexibility and abstraction not generally thought to be possible for implicit processes.     

Olfactory learning in individually assayed Drosophila larvae

Insect and mammalian olfactory systems are strikingly similar. Therefore, Drosophila can be used as a simple model for olfaction and olfactory learning. The brain of adult Drosophila, however, is still complex. We therefore chose to work on the larva with its yet simpler but adult-like olfactory system and provide evidence for olfactory learning in individually assayed Drosophila larvae. We developed a differential conditioning paradigm in which odorants are paired with positive (“+” fructose) or negative (“-” quinine or sodium chloride) gustatory reinforcers. Test performance of individuals from two treatment conditions is compared—one received odorant A with the positive reinforcer and odorant B with a negative reinforcer (A+/B-); animals from the other treatment condition were trained reciprocally (A-/B+). During test, differences in choice between A and B of individuals having undergone either A+/B- or A-/B+ training therefore indicate associative learning. We provide such evidence for both combinations of reinforcers; this was replicable across repetitions, laboratories, and experimenters. We further show that breaks improve performance, in accord with basic principles of associative learning. The present individual assay will facilitate electrophysiological studies, which necessarily use individuals. As such approaches are established for the larval neuromuscular synapse, but not in adults, an individual larval learning paradigm will serve to link behavioral levels of analysis to synaptic physiology.     

Comment on Levine's blank trial method: A procedure for estimating true hypothesis behavior

When Levine's method of blank trial probes is used to study hypothesis behavior the probability that a probe results in a cue-defined choice combination usually lies between .70 and .90, depending upon the age group and the treatment conditions. It may not be safe to assume that each such combination signifies an hypothesis. A procedure for estimating the probability of true hypothesis behavior is presented, including a validity test for the resulting estimate. The procedure is applied to data taken from three research reports, and reveals substantial differences between age and treatment groups. Implications of the procedure for correctly interpreting empirical results are discussed.     

Nonmetric individual differences multidimensional scaling: An alternating least squares method with optimal scaling features

A new procedure is discussed which fits either the weighted or simple Euclidian model to data that may (a) be defined at either the nominal, ordinal, interval or ratio levels of measurement; (b) have missing observations; (c) be symmetric or asymmetric; (d) be conditional or unconditional; (e) be replicated or unreplicated; and (f) be continuous or discrete. Various special cases of the procedure include the most commonly used individual differences multidimensional scaling models, the familiar nonmetric multidimensional scaling model, and several other previously undiscussed variants.The procedure optimizes the fit of the model directly to the data (not to scalar products determined from the data) by an alternating least squares procedure which is convergent, very quick, and relatively free from local minimum problems.The procedure is evaluated via both Monte Carlo and empirical data. It is found to be robust in the face of measurement error, capable of recovering the true underlying configuration in the Monte Carlo situation, and capable of obtaining structures equivalent to those obtained by other less general procedures in the empirical situation.This project was supported in part by Research Grant No. MH10006 and Research Grant No. MH26504, awarded by the National Institute of Mental Health, DHEW. We wish to thank Robert F. Baker, J. Douglas Carroll, Joseph Kruskal, and Amnon Rapoport for comments on an earlier draft of this paper. Portions of the research reported here were presented to the spring meeting of the Psychometric Society, 1975. ALSCAL, a program to perform the computations discussed in this paper, may be obtained from any of the authors.Jan de Leeuw is currently at Datatheorie, Central Rekeninstituut, Wassenaarseweg 80, Leiden, The Netherlands. Yoshio Takane can be reached at the Department of Psychology, University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.     

Judgment aggregation and the problem of tracking the truth

The aggregation of consistent individual judgments on logically interconnected propositions into a collective judgment on those propositions has recently drawn much attention. Seemingly reasonable aggregation procedures, such as propositionwise majority voting, cannot ensure an equally consistent collective conclusion. In this paper, we motivate that quite often, we do not only want to make a factually right decision, but also to correctly evaluate the reasons for that decision. In other words, we address the problem of tracking the truth. We set up a probabilistic model that generalizes the analysis of Bovens and Rabinowicz (Synthese 150: 131?C153, 2006) and use it to compare several aggregation procedures. Demanding some reasonable adequacy constraints, we demonstrate that a reasons- or premise-based aggregation procedure tracks the truth better than any other procedure. However, we also illuminate that such a procedure is not in all circumstances easy to implement, leaving actual decision-makers with a tradeoff problem.     

Improving the Accuracy of Group Judgment: A Process Intervention Combining Group Facilitation,Social Judgment Analysis,and Information Technology

Interacting groups fail to make judgments as accurate as those of their most capable members due to problems associated with both interaction processes and cognitive processing. Group process techniques and decision analytic tools have been used with groups to combat these problems. While such techniques and tools do improve the quality of group judgment, they have not enabled groups to make judgments more accurate than those of their most capable members on tasks that evoke a great deal of systematic bias. A new intervention procedure that integrates group facilitation, social judgment analysis, and information technology was developed to overcome more fully the problems typically associated with interaction processes and cognitive processing. The intervention was evaluated by testing the hypothesis that groups using this new procedure can establish judgment policies for cognitive conflict tasks that are more accurate than the ones produced by any of their members. An experiment involving 16 four- and five-member groups was conducted to compare the accuracy of group judgments with the accuracy of the judgments of the most capable group member. A total of 96 participants (48 males and 48 females) completed the individual part of the task; 71 of these participants worked in groups. Results indicated that the process intervention enabled small, interacting groups to perform significantly better than their most capable members on two cognitive conflict tasks (p < .05). The findings suggest that Group Decision Support Systems that integrate facilitation, social judgment analysis, and information technology should be used to improve the accuracy of group judgment.     

Analogical inference: The role of awareness in abstract learning

The acquisition and flexible expression of complex relations is often attributed to declarative memory processes. The extent to which such tasks may be done implicitly has not been sufficiently explored. We report that analogical or transfer processes may be accomplished implicitly. Our analogy task requires acquisition of a transverse patterning set, and then tests for transfer on an unrelated set. Participants learn the relations A>B (given a choice between A and B choose A) and B>C and the unrelated set X>Y and Y>Z. Only the experimental group was trained on the transverse pair C>A. At test all trials are unreinforced: A?B, B?C, A?C, X?Y, Y?Z, X?Z. Analogy was observed when the experimental group chose Z>X at greater frequency than controls who uniformly chose X>Z. Analogy occurred with or without awareness of the transfer. The capacity to transfer relations to an analogous set demonstrates a level of flexibility and abstraction not generally thought to be possible for implicit processes.