传递性关系推理的简约模型——诠释传递性关系推理的新理论

Wynne的简约模型是基于动物的传递性关系推理研究所提出的理论模型。该模型假设：个体的传递性关系推理是通过运用刺激的强化值来表征顺序信息,并比较所呈现刺激之间强化值的差异来实现的。研究文献证实简约模型能够说明在人类和其它动物的传递性关系推理研究中所发现的大多数标准化效应,因此其被视为迄今解释传递性关系推理问题最经济的模型。但该模型将人类高级认知活动采用动物的机械学习方式来解释的还原论倾向是值得商榷的,它所探讨的传递性行为是否是“真传递性关系推理”也有待进一步验证。     

The Role of Negation in Conditional Inference

This paper addresses the issue of how negative components affect people's ability to draw conditional inferences. The study was motivated by an attempt to resolve a difficulty for the mental models theory of Johnson-Laird and Byrne, whose account of matching bias in the selection task is apparently inconsistent with Johnson-Laird's explanation of the double negation effects in conditional inference reported by Evans, Clibbens, and Rood (1995). Two experiments are reported, which investigate frequencies of conditional inferences with task presentation similar to that of the selection task in two respects: the presence of a picture of four cards and the use of implicit negations in the premises. The latter variable was shown to be critical and demonstrated a new phenomenon: Conditional inferences of all kinds are substantially suppressed when based on implicitly negative premises. This phenomenon was shown to operate independently of and in addition to the double negation effect. A third experiment showed that the implicit negation effect could be extended to the paradigm in which people are asked to produce their own conclusions. It is argued that these two effects can be explained within either the mental models theory or the inference rule theory, of propositional reasoning, but that each will require some revision in order to offer a convincing account.     

The Role of Inference in Attribute Framing Effects

Previous research has shown that a speaker's choice between logically equivalent frames is influenced by reference point information, and that listeners draw accurate inferences based on the frame. Less clear, however, is whether these inferences play a causal role in generating attribute framing effects. Two experiments are reported, which suggest that frame‐dependent inferences are sufficient to generate attribute framing effects, and that blocking such inferences may block framing effects. Experiment 1 decomposed the typical framing design into two parts: One group of participants saw a target described in one of two attribute frames and reported their estimates (inferences) of the typical attribute value. These estimates were then given to a second group of yoked participants, who evaluated the target. Although this latter group was not exposed to different attribute frames, they nevertheless exhibited a “framing effect” as a result of receiving systematically different inferences. In contrast, Experiment 2 shows that experts—who are familiar with an attribute's distribution and are therefore less likely to draw strong frame‐based inferences—exhibit a diminished framing effect. Together, these findings underscore the role of inferences in the generation and attenuation of attribute framing effects. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

因果模型在类比推理中的作用

通过操纵因果模型的特征维度及推理方向, 探讨因果模型在类比推理中的作用。实验一探讨了当结果特征未知时进行类比推理的情况, 发现在一果多因时, 被试采用因果模型进行类比推理, 而在一因多果时, 被试同时采用因果模型和计算模型进行类比推理。实验二探讨当原因特征未知时进行类比推理的情况, 发现在一果多因和一因多果时, 被试均采用因果模型进行类比推理。结果表明：(1)当结果特征未知时, 人们会建构因果模型进行类比推理。且当因果模型和计算模型处于冲突情境时, 人们会采用因果模型进行类比推理; 但当因果模型和计算模型处于非冲突情境时, 人们会同时采用因果模型和计算模型。(2)当原因特征未知时, 即按照因果模型推理的难度增加时, 人们仍会建构因果模型进行类比推理。     

有关条件推理认知机制的概率理论

条件推理主要有两种研究范式：演绎形式(MP、DA、AC、MT)和变通形式(四卡问题)。已往研究主要探讨了内容因素、情境因素以及元认知因素等对条件推理的影响,形成了若干理论模型和观点。近来、Oaksford等人研究了概率因素对条件推理的影响．提出了条件概率模型。本文对这种新的研究取向作了详细的介绍和评价,并对未来研究进行了展望。     

Exploring the Process of Inference Generation in Sarcasm: A Review of Normal and Clinical Studies

This article evaluates two theoretical accounts of how sarcasm is understood; the traditional model, which asserts that listeners derive a counterfactual inference from the sarcastic comment, and relevance theory, which asserts that listeners recognize sarcasm as a scornful echo of a previous assertion. Evidence from normal speakers provides only partial support for both theories. Evidence from brain-injured populations suggests that aspects of the pragmatic process can be arrested in ways not predicted by either theory. It is concluded that sarcasm is more effortful to process than nonsarcastic comments and that inferences about the facts of the situation and the mental state of the speaker (e.g., attitudes, knowledge, and intentions) are important to comprehending sarcasm. It is questioned whether inferences about mental state are relatively more difficult for brain-injured subjects and, if so, whether this is a continuum of difficulty or reflects reliance upon different cognitive processes.     

文本阅读中回指推理发生的整合性因素

探讨回指距离、干扰词的精细描述、干扰词的典型性 对回指推理（先行词通达）的影响。包括2个实验,被试是华南师范大学一二年级本科生164名。采用移动窗口技术,要求被试阅读一定篇数（如,实验1a每个被试阅读15篇）的文章,对不同条件的探测词的反应时进行统计。实验1探讨干扰词精细描述类型（精细描述高和精细描述低）对回指推理的影响。结果表明,干扰的精细描述并非是影响回指推理的主要因素。实验2探讨干扰词和先行词的典型性类型的相对变化对回指推理的影响。结果表明高典型干扰在不同回指距离条件下都会对回指推理产生影响。本研究结果初步证明在影响回指推理的干扰典型性和干扰精细描述的二个因素中,起主要作用的是干扰的典型性     

篇章阅读中影响回指推理的因素

探讨回指距离、干扰词的精细描述、干扰词的典型性对回指推理的影响。包括2个实验,164名大学生被试。实验1探讨干扰词精细描述类型的影响。结果表明,干扰的精细描述并非是影响回指推理的主要因素。实验2探讨干扰词和先行词的典型性类型的相对变化的影响。结果表明高典型干扰在不同回指距离条件下都会对回指推理产生影响。从而表明高典型的干扰项干扰了回指推理发生。     

The EPR-Experiment and Free Process Theory

As part of the ‘creation-discovery’ interpretation of quantum mechanics Diederik Aerts presented a setting with macroscopical coincidence experiments designed to exhibit significant conceptual analogies between portions of stuff and quantum compound entities in a singlet state in Einstein—Podolsky—Rosen/Bell-experiments (EPR-experiments). One important claim of the creation-discovery view is that the singlet state describes an entity that does not have a definite position in space and thus ‘does not exist in space’. ‘Free Process Theory’ is a recent proposal by Johanna Seibt of an integrated ontology, i.e., of an ontology suitable for the interpretation of theories of the macrophysical and microphysical domain (quantum field theory). The framework of free process theory allows us to show systematically the relevant analogies and disanalogies between Aerts' experiment and EPR-experiments. From free process ontology it also follows quite naturally that the quantum compound entity described by the singlet state ‘does not exist in space.’     

政府在世俗化过程中的角色

本文以北京东岳庙的恢复为例,讨论政府在社会变迁过程中的作用及其角色的多面性。世俗化和非世俗化是国际社会学家对50多年来世界不同地区宗教消沉或复兴的描述方式。在20世纪的中国政府对传统宗教的管理是世界世俗化运动的特殊表现。本文认为最近30年中国形成了新的宗教市场,政府的参与说明中国的世俗化力量还没有彻底摆脱传统宗教的生存形态。     

A Role for Equity Theory in the Turnover Process: An Empirical Test1

The purpose of the present study was to examine the role of equity theory in the context of the contemporary turnover process. A model was developed and tested with 192 hospital employees using structural equation modeling (SEM), which placed satisfaction and intention to quit as mediators of employee turnover. The results strongly support the present model, but also suggest a role for other mediators, some of which are suggested for future research.     

Prediction and Clinical Inference: Forty Years Later

The earlier controversy between clinical and statistical prediction has faded into the shadows. Few people today challenge the necessity for both approaches in seeking to develop and apply knowledge. In more contemporary terms, the issue of which prediction method should be preferred involves choosing between a quest for historical truth (i.e., correspondence demonstrated by staristical methods) and a quest for narrative truth (i.e., coherence achieved by clinical formulations).     

Down the Garden Path: The Role of Conditional Inference Processes in Self‐Persuasion

In a controlled experiment, information format and prior knowledge of risk‐related decision attributes altered the response to decision conflict produced by negatively correlated attributes (NCA) in choice under uncertainty. When dominated choice alternatives were presented in a format in which the displayed attributes were not negatively correlated, decision makers used a simple choice process based on the displayed information. This allowed them to detect the dominated alternatives, regardless of their prior knowledge. However, when the same alternatives were presented in a format in which the displayed attributes were negatively correlated, the more‐knowledgeable decision makers used a compensatory choice process based on the displayed attributes and, consequently, missed the dominated alternatives. The less‐knowledgeable participants, who were unable to use the displayed attributes because of their lack of expertise, calculated the nondisplayed attributes and detected the dominated alternatives. With NCA, the more‐knowledgeable participants followed a conflict‐resolution strategy using the displayed NCAs, whereas the less‐knowledgeable individuals followed a conflict‐avoidance strategy using the uncorrelated, nondisplayed attributes that inadvertently revealed the dominance structure of the decision. The implications of person factors for the effects of NCA and in other types of decisions with NCA are discussed.     

The Role of Process in the Rational Analysis of Memory

The rational analysis of memory (Anderson, 1990) proposes that memory's sensitivity to statistical structure in the environment enables it to optimally estimate the odds that a memory trace will be needed. We have analyzed sources of informational demand in the environment: speech to children and word usage in the front page headlines of the New York Times. In a previous paper (Anderson & Schooler, 1991) we have shown that factors that govern memory performance, including recency, also predict the odds that an item (e.g., a word) will be encountered. In the present paper we develop the theory to make precise predictions about how the odds of encountering an item now varies as a joint function of (1) the statistical associations between the item and elements of the current context and (2) how long it has been since the item was last encountered. The prediction was confirmed environmentally by analyses of the New York Times and speech to children. The corresponding behavioral prediction was tested, using a cued recall task in which the cues were either strongly associated or unassociated to the targets. In contrast to the environmental results, recall performance is more sensitive to the length of the retention interval in the presence of unassociated cues than in the presence of associated cues. Further modeling shows that incorporating estimates of the influence of non-retrieval processes (e.g., reading a word, deciding to respond, etc.) on overall performance reduces the discrepancy between the theoretical predictions and the observed data.     

Social Role Theory and the Perceived Gender Role Orientation of Athletes

In this research we examined the influence of athletic roles upon the perceived gender role orientations of male and female athletes. Participants were 148 students who read a bogus newspaper article that described either a male or female athlete who had successfully competed in an athletic event. The type of sport (football, basketball, and cheerleading) was manipulated. Female football players and basketball players were perceived as higher in agency than female cheerleaders. Male cheerleaders were perceived as higher in communality than male football players and male basketball players. Participants made external attributions concerning the motivations of athletes who competed in gender traditional sports. They made internal attributions concerning the motivations of athletes who competed in gender nontraditional sports. These findings are examined in relation to social role theory.     

The Context of Inference

There is an ambiguity in the concept of deductive validity that went unnoticed until the middle of the twentieth century. Sometimes an inference rule is called valid because its conclusion is a theorem whenever its premises are. But often something different is meant: The rule's conclusion follows from its premises even in the presence of other assumptions. In many logical environments, these two definitions pick out the same rules. But other environments are context-sensitive, and in these environments the second notion is stronger. Sorting out this ambiguity has led to profound mathematical investigations with applications in complexity theory and computer science. The origins of this ambiguity and the history of its resolution deserve philosophical attention, because our understanding of logic stands to benefit from their details.

I am eager to examine together with you, Crito, whether this argument will appear in any way different to me in my present circumstances, or whether it remains the same, whether we are to abandon it or believe in it.—Plato Crito, 46d     

The Role of Structural Reasoning in the Genesis of Graph Theory

The concept of quantity (Größe) plays a key role in Frege's theory of real numbers. Typically enough, he refers to this theory as ‘theory of quantity’ (‘Größenlehre’) in the second volume of his opus magnum Grundgesetze der Arithmetik (Frege 1903). In this essay, I deal, in a critical way, with Frege's treatment of the concept of quantity and his approach to analysis from the beginning of his academic career until Frege 1903. I begin with a few introductory remarks. In Section 2, I first analyze Frege's use of the term ‘source of knowledge’ (‘Erkenntnisquelle’) with particular emphasis on the logical source of knowledge. The analysis includes a brief comparison between Frege and Kant's conceptions of logic and the logical source of knowledge. In a second step, I examine Frege's theory of quantity in Rechnungsmethoden, die sich auf eine Erweiterung des Größenbegriffes gründen (Frege 1874). Section 3 contains a couple of critical observations on Frege's comments on Hankel's theory of real numbers in Die Grundlagen der Arithmetik (Frege 1884). In Section 4, I consider Frege's discussion of the concept of quantity in Frege 1903. Section 5 is devoted to Cantor's theory of irrational numbers and the critique deployed by Frege. In Section 6, I return to Frege's own constructive treatment of analysis in Frege 1903 and succinctly describe what I take to be the quintessence of his account.