Overconfidence in Probability and Frequency Judgments: A Critical Examination

The overconfidence observed in calibration studies has recently been questioned on both psychological and methodological grounds. In the first part of the article we discuss these issues and argue that overconfidence cannot be explained as a selection bias, and that it is not eliminated by random sampling of questions. In the second part of the article, we compare probability judgments for single events with judgments of relative frequency. Subjects received a target individual's personality profile and then predicted the target's responses to a series of binary questions. One group predicted the responses of an individual target, while a second group estimated the relative frequency of responses among all target subjects who shared a given personality profile. Judgments of confidence and estimates of relative frequency were practically indistinguishable; both exhibited substantial overconfidence and were highly correlated with independent judgments of representativeness.     

The Role of the Group in the Induction of Therapeutic Change

This article presents interventions appropriate to three forms of resistance commonly encountered in the group. One is the tendency of members to talk in the past tense instead of the present. A second is the disposition of members to dwell on the future. The third is their tendency to occupy the group with issues in their outside lives. Also mentioned are certain other common resistances to interaction that all group therapists will sometimes encounter. As important as the techniques themselves is the therapist's recognition of the need to keep groups moving forward in new and productive ways. Doing this is the essence of the work.     

Natural Properties,Necessary Connections,and the Problem of Induction

The necessitarian solution to the problem of induction involves two claims: first, that necessary connections are justified by an inference to the best explanation; second, that the best theory of necessary connections entails the timeless uniformity of nature. In this paper, I defend the second claim. My arguments are based on considerations from the metaphysics of laws, properties, and fundamentality.     

Flicker fusion frequency and organic syndrome in alcoholics

Flicker fusion frequencies of 48 healthy controls and of 35 alcoholics were measured to detect possible associations between flicker fusion and signs of nonspecific brain damage, the aim of the study. FFF was statistically significantly lower in patients addicted to alcohol than in healthy subjects. Lower flicker fusion frequencies were associated with the severeness of organic psychosis as rated psychopathologically. The hypothesis that addiction to alcohol is a sign of diffuse, nonspecific, organic brain damage was discussed.     

Enriching the Inoculation Construct The Role of Critical Components in the Process of Resistance

This investigation tested the effectiveness of inoculation treatments on 790 participants. The study probed the relationship between threat and involvement, their role in inoculation, and the nature of cognitive processes triggered via inoculation. The pattern of results suggests that inoculation elicits threat, threat contributes to resistance, and resistance is most pronounced for more involved receivers and on behalf of more involving topics. Finally, the results shed additional light on the process of inoculation but revealed a process considerably more intricate than was initially predicted. Structural equation analyses indicated that inoculation and involvement exert parallel, but independent, effects throughout the process of resistance. Both contributed directly to resistance, and both indirectly furthered resistance, but along unique paths. Whereas inoculation elicited receiver threat, which indirectly enhanced resistance through its sizable and immediate impact on Phase 2 attitudes, involvement contributed to the process of counterarguing and, thus, exerted a delayed indirect impact on Phase 3 attitudes.     

Flicker adaptation in the periphery at constant perceived modulation depth

At constant physical flicker modulation depth, the time taken to adapt to flicker in the periphery varies inversely with temporal frequency. It has recently been suggested that this effect may indicate differential susceptibility to adaptation of the underlying temporal mechanisms. Using suprathreshold gratings, temporally modulated in contrast at constant perceived, rather than physical, modulation depth, we found the opposite result: the time required to adapt increased with temporal frequency. Given some uncertainty concerning the appropriateness of employing apparent or physically constant modulation depths, we conclude that rate of adaptation does not, at present, provide clear evidence as to the nature of the underlying temporal mechanisms.     

Igniting the Flicker of Freedom: Revisiting the Frankfurt Scenario

This paper aims to challenge the view that the sign present in many Frankfurt-style scenarios is insufficiently robust to constitute evidence for the possibility of an alternate decision, and therefore inadequate as a means of determining moral responsibility. I have amended Frankfurt’s original scenario, so as to allow Jones, as well as Black, the opportunity to monitor his (Jones’s) own inclination towards a particular decision (the sign). Different outcome possibilities are presented, to the effect that Jones’s awareness of his own inclinations leads to the conclusion that the sign must be either (a) a prior determinate of the decision about to be made, (b) prior and indeterminate (therefore allowing for a contra-inclination decision to be made), or (c) constitutive of a decision that Jones has made but is not yet aware of. In effect, this means that, prior to the intervention of Black, Jones must have decided to do otherwise or could have so decided. Either way, although Frankfurt’s conclusion, that Jones could not have done other than he did, is upheld, the idea that he could not have decided otherwise must be rejected, and with it the view that the sign is nothing more than a flicker of freedom insufficient for assigning morally responsibility.

Flicker contrast sensitivity in normal and specifically disabled readers

Temporal contrast sensitivity for counterphase flicker was determined for specifically disabled and normal readers to investigate whether the two groups differ in the functioning of their transient systems. In experiment 1, temporal contrast sensitivity was measured over a range of temporal frequencies with a spatial frequency of 2 cycles deg-1. Disabled readers were less sensitive than the control subjects at all temporal frequencies. In experiment 2, temporal contrast sensitivity was measured at a temporal frequency of 20 Hz over a range of spatial frequencies. Disabled readers were less sensitive than the controls at all spatial frequencies, with the differences between the groups increasing as spatial frequency increased. Both these findings are interpreted as supporting the hypothesis of a transient-system deficit in the visual systems of disabled readers.     

Toward the Unification of Molecular and Molar Analyses

Three categories of behavior analysis may be called molecular, molar, and unified. Molecular analyses focus on how manual shaping segments moment-to-moment behaving into new, unified, hierarchically organized patterns. Manual shaping is largely atheoretical, qualitative, and practical. Molar analyses aggregate behaviors and then compute a numerical average for the aggregate. Typical molar analyses involve average rate of, or average time allocated to, the aggregated behaviors. Some molar analyses have no known relation to any behavior stream. Molar analyses are usually quantitative and often theoretical. Unified analyses combine automated shaping of moment-to-moment behaving and molar aggregates of the shaped patterns. Unified controlling relations suggest that molar controlling relations like matching confound shaping and strengthening effects of reinforcement. If a molecular analysis is about how reinforcement organizes individual behavior moment by moment, and a molar analysis is about how reinforcement encourages more or less of an activity aggregated over time, then a unified analysis handles both kinds of analyses. Only theories engendered by computer simulation appear to be able to unify all three categories of behavior analysis.     

基于原型特征因果关系的归纳推理研究

两个实验探讨新特征与类别原型特征之间存在因果关系时,因果关系对归纳推理的影响.实验1探讨不同典型性条件下,新特征与原型特征间的因果关系对归纳推理的影响.实验2探讨不同多样性条件下,新特征与原型特征间的因果关系对归纳推理的影响.研究结果表明,当新特征与原型特征之间存在因果关系时,因果关系会影响归纳推理的力度,但样例典型性和多样性仍是影响人们归纳推理的重要因素.     

其它可能原因对于因果共变信息作用的影响

研究使用相继呈现信息的方法控制了被试获得信息的顺序,将其它可能原因在因果判断过程中所起到的作用分离了出来,并按照其对不同共变信息的影响进行了分析。研究结果表明：(1)其它可能原因会影响到被试利用因果共变信息而进行的因果推断。(2)其它可能原因与待判断原因共同存在的程度在很大程度上影响着其它可能原因所起到的作用。(3)其它可能原因对于不同共变信息的影响有着明显的差别。     

The Effects of Role Induction on Trainees' Perceptions of Supervision

The effects of a role-induction procedure on beginning counselor-trainees' perceptions of supervision were examined using a 10-minute audiotaped summary of Bernard's (1979) model of supervision. Nineteen trainees were administered the role-induction procedure at either the 2nd, 5th, or 9th week of the academic term. Two self-report scales assessed trainees' conceptualization of supervision as well as expectations and attitudes toward the supervisory process. Results indicated that trainees evaluated supervision more negatively over the time period before the role induction. Following role induction, trainees reported a clearer conceptualization of supervision and a greater willingness to reveal concerns to their supervisors.