《条件推理的条件概率模型》的新进展

推理心理学中的任何重要的理论模型在提出后都有一个不断修订和完善的发展过程。Oaksford等为了解释他们在"Wason四卡片选择任务"的实验研究结果,于1994年提出了"最佳数据选择模型";2000年将这一模型扩展为"条件推理的条件概率模型"用于解释人类进行条件推理的心理加工机制;2007年又将这一模型做了新的修订。本文拟对这一模型新进展的内涵介绍给我国对推理心理学研究领域有兴趣的研究者。     

条件推理与概率判断

选取6个具体内容的条件命题和1个纯形式的条件命题作为实验材料,以大学生为被试,深入探讨了条件推理的认知加工机制。结果发现,大学生被试对四种推理形式的认可程度主要与范畴前提的概率值成正比,条件推理似乎是一种基于概率判断的直觉而高效的认知加工过程,进一步证实了Oaksford（2000）以及Evans（2003）等人的观点。     

命题内容对青少年条件推理的影响

选取3个具体内容的条件命题作为实验材料,以小四、初一、高一、大三的学生为被试,探讨了命题内容对青少年条件推理的影响机制及其发展特点。结果表明:(1)对同一年级而言,不同内容的条件命题的相同推理(MP、MT、DA、AC)之间表现出显著的差异;对不同年级而言,相同内容的条件命题的四种推理之间也存在显著的差异。(2)青少年的条件推理过程似乎是一种基于对事件发生概率估计的直觉判断,这一判断过程主要取决于个体知识经验的增长和主体认知水平的提高,而用形式逻辑的标准来衡量个体条件推理能力的高低似乎并不妥当。     

条件推理:“演绎”与“概率”两种实验研究范式之比较

本研究通过推理心理学研究中的“演绎”和“概率”两种实验范式设计对同一个班级的大学生参与者(实验一中N=57,实验二中N=43)进行先后两次有关条件推理的实验研究后,得出如下主要结果:(1)推理者在对不同的“纯形式条件命题本身的认可度”以及对由它们各自建构的同类型推理题的推理结果之间的作答反应模式之间的差异都很小且具有较高的一致性;(2)对由不同的“含具体内容的假言命题”本身的认可度之间以及由它们建构的同类型条件推理题的推理结果之间具有较大的差异性;(3)推理者对“演绎”和“概率”两种不同实验范式分别建构的内容近似的推进题进行推理时具有大致相同的作答反应趋势。由此可以推论推理者在“概率推理实验范式”中的作答或推理结果可以被视为只是对“演绎推理实验范式”的相应推理题给出“概率解”的心理加工过程。     

条件推理的类比转换运用

该文通过2个实验研究旨在探究将演绎推理和类比推理结合在一起的四卡条件推理的类比转换运用的特点。结果表明：1）假设检验的条件推理过程在特定的实验条件下,表现出推理过程转换的心理加工特点;2）改善问题的陈述形式,使之和样例问题一样,能够降低推理过程转换的难度,促进推理过程转换的成绩;3）2个样例归纳的图式促进同形问题的解答,却对推理转换过程有抑制作用。     

论条件推理中的两种"高概率结论效应"

用随机抽取的139名大学生和研究生被试,对Oaksford设计的4条条件推理规则的认可度,以及对组成这4条条件推理规则的前后件认可度进行了评定,并根据被试对"条件规则"、组成条件规则的"前件"和"后件"等三个因素上的评定结果各区分为"高"和"低"两个水平.而后对被试在不同评定条件下对每条规则的四种推理结果进行了统计分析.实验结果既支持Oaksford等提出的"推理者对组成条件推理规则的不同的前后件概率组合对推理结论的认可度会有影响"这一观点,也支持邱江等得出的"不同的条件概率对推理者进行推理时对结论认可度的高低会有影响"的论断.前者可称之为"前后件概率的高概率结论效应",后者可称之为"条件概率的高概率结论效应".     

情绪状态对大学生条件推理的影响

采用不同情绪效价的电影片断诱发大学生不同的情绪,并运用眼动仪器记录条件推理的过程和结果,探讨了不同情绪状态对条件推理的影响状况。实验采用3（情绪组别：积极情绪、消极情绪、中性情绪）×4（推理形式：MP、DA、AC、MT）的混合实验设计。研究结果发现,中性情绪状态下的条件推理成绩显著地高于积极和消极情绪状态,结果支持抑制假说。     

条件推理的语义关系表达形式效应

作者用以大学生为被试的实验考察, 基本条件句语义关系表达形式(充分关系、必要关系和析取关系表达形式)和作为心理模型外显建构的可能性判断任务对条件推理的可能影响。实验结果发现, 条件推理的语义关系表达形式效应显著, 条件句语义关系表达形式对被试条件推理有显著的影响, 条件推理成绩随条件句语义关系表达的外显程度增加而增加; 被试在可能性判断任务中对条件句所含心理模型的外显建构并没有明显改善条件推理的成绩; 在有可能性判断任务条件下, 被试外显心理模型建构的成绩变化模式并不能一致地预测条件推理成绩的变化模式。这些结果说明, 人们的条件推理可能并不是完全基于心理模型建构, 而是还受对条件句前后件之间语义关系理解的影响; 条件句表达形式中语义关系的外显内隐模式影响对条件句语义关系的知觉理解难易, 从而影响相应条件推理的成绩。     

材料情绪性对条件推理影响的眼动研究

以大学生为被试,采用不同情绪效价的条件命题作为实验材料,运用眼动仪器记录被试进行条件推理的过程和结果,探讨了材料情绪性对条件推理的影响状况.实验采用3(材料情绪性:正性情绪、负性情绪、中性情绪)×4(推理形式:MP、DA、AC、MT)的重复测量实验设计.研究结果发现,正性和负性情绪材料的条件推理成绩显著地低于中性情绪材料,结果支持抑制假说.     

有关条件推理认知机制的概率理论

条件推理主要有两种研究范式：演绎形式(MP、DA、AC、MT)和变通形式(四卡问题)。已往研究主要探讨了内容因素、情境因素以及元认知因素等对条件推理的影响,形成了若干理论模型和观点。近来、Oaksford等人研究了概率因素对条件推理的影响．提出了条件概率模型。本文对这种新的研究取向作了详细的介绍和评价,并对未来研究进行了展望。     

假言推理中的概率效应

近来Oaksford等人的研究表明,概率信息对假言推理的认知过程有着显著的影响,在一定程度上可以用它来解释和预测个体在推理中的行为反应。该文针对这种新的观点,就假言推理中所涉及的前后件概率信息、条件概率信息、连接概率信息、因果概率信息以及额外前提条件等对假言推理的影响分别做了简要的阐述,并介绍了一些相关的实验研究,最后作了总结和展望。     

Conditional Probability and Defeasible Inference

We offer a probabilistic model of rational consequence relations (Lehmann and Magidor, 1990) by appealing to the extension of the classical Ramsey–Adams test proposed by Vann McGee in (McGee, 1994). Previous and influential models of non-monotonic consequence relations have been produced in terms of the dynamics of expectations (Gärdenfors and Makinson, 1994; Gärdenfors, 1993).Expectation is a term of art in these models, which should not be confused with the notion of expected utility. The expectations of an agent are some form of belief weaker than absolute certainty. Our model offers a modified and extended version of an account of qualitative belief in terms of conditional probability, first presented in (van Fraassen, 1995). We use this model to relate probabilistic and qualitative models of non-monotonic relations in terms of expectations. In doing so we propose a probabilistic model of the notion of expectation. We provide characterization results both for logically finite languages and for logically infinite, but countable, languages. The latter case shows the relevance of the axiom of countable additivity for our probability functions. We show that a rational logic defined over a logically infinite language can only be fully characterized in terms of finitely additive conditional probability. The research of both authors was supported in part by a grant from NSF, and, for Parikh, also by support from the research foundation of CUNY.     

Conditional covariance structure of generalized compensatory multidimensional items

Some nonparametric dimensionality assessment procedures, such as DIMTEST and DETECT, use nonparametric estimates of item pair conditional covariances given an appropriately chosen subtest score as their basic building blocks. Such conditional covariances given some subtest score can be regarded as an approximation to the conditional covariances given an appropriately chosen unidimensional latent composite, where the composite is oriented in the multidimensional test space direction in which the subtest score measures best. In this paper, the structure and properties of such item pair conditional covariances given a unidimensional latent composite are thoroughly investigated, assuming a semiparametric IRT modeling framework called a generalized compensatory model. It is shown that such conditional covariances are highly informative about the multidimensionality structure of a test. The theory developed here is very useful in establishing properties of dimensionality assessment procedures, current and yet to be developed, that are based upon estimating such conditional covariances.In particular, the new theory is used to justify the DIMTEST procedure. Because of the importance of conditional covariance estimation, a new bias reducing approach is presented. A byproduct of likely independent importance beyond the study of conditional covariances is a rigorous score information based definition of an item's and a score's direction of best measurement in the multidimensional test space.This paper is based on a chapter of the first author's doctoral dissertation, written at the University of Illinois and supervised by the second author. Part of this research has been presented at the annual meeting of the National Council on Measurement in Education, San Francisco, April 1995.The authors would like to thank Jeff Douglas, Xuming He and Ming-mei Wang for their comments and suggestions. The research of the first author was partially supported by an ETS/GREB Psychometric Fellowship, and by Educational Testing Service Research Allocation Project 884-01. The research of the second author was partially supported by NSF grant DMS 97-04474.     

Conditional discrimination learning: A critique and amplification

Carter and Werner recently reviewed the literature on conditional discrimination learning by pigeons, which consists of studies of matching-to-sample and oddity-from-sample. They also discussed three models of such learning: the “multiple-rule” model (learning of stimulus-specific relations), the “configuration” model, and the “single-rule” model (concept learning). Although their treatment of the multiple-rule model, which seems most applicable to the pigeon data, is generally excellent, their discussion of the other two models is incomplete and sometimes inaccurate. Potential problems of terminology are discussed in the present paper, as are additional lines of research that deserve consideration by those interested in further work in this area. The issue of response versus stimulus selection (configuration versus compound-cue learning) is discussed in connection with the configuration model. Particular attention is given to Carter and Werner's criticism of the application, in studies with other species, of the learning set procedure in testing for single-rule learning. Some of the important related issues are: the bias for improvement on new problems in a series, the adequacy of a multiple-rule model to explain learning set formation, and evidence in favor of the single-rule model, at least in primates. Consideration of these additional contributions to the study of conditional discrimination learning emphasizes the usefulness of this task in the comparative study of cognitive processes.     

A Sequent Formulation of Conditional Logic Based on Belief Change Operations

Peter Gärdenfors has developed a semantics for conditional logic, based on the operations of expansion and revision applied to states of information. The account amounts to a formalisation of the Ramsey test for conditionals. A conditional A > B is declared accepted in a state of information K if B is accepted in the state of information which is the result of revising K with respect to A. While Gärdenfors's account takes the truth-functional part of the logic as given, the present paper proposes a semantics entirely based on epistemic states and operations on these states. The semantics is accompanied by a syntactic treatment of conditional logic which is formally similar to Gentzen's sequent formulation of natural deduction rules. Three of David Lewis's systems of conditional logic are represented. The formulations are attractive by virtue of their transparency and simplicity.     

Obligation and the Conditional in Stit Theory

In this paper, we consider two different ways in which modus-ponens type reasoning with conditional obligations may be formalized. We develop necessary and sufficient conditions for the validity of each, and make some philosophical observations about the differences between the minor premises that each formalization requires. All this is done within the context of the Belnap-Perloff stit theory.     

有关条件推理中概率效应的实验研究

通过预备实验选取了四种不同条件概率的条件规则和四种不同前后件概率组合的条件规则作为实验材料,以大学生为被试,考察了两种概率因素(条件概率和前后件概率)对条件推理的演绎形式(MP、DA、AC、MT)以及变通形式(四卡问题)的影响。结果表明,两种概率因素对四种条件推理的影响都非常显著,研究进一步证实了人们对四种推理的认可程度主要与范畴前提的概率成正比的结论;但概率因素对四卡问题的解决影响不明显。