取样大小对因果强度推理的影响研究

摘 要：使用纸笔测验探讨表格集中呈现信息条件下取样大小对单一因果关系强度推理的影响,并比较五种模型ΔP、效力PC、SS效力、Support和χ2的预测与实验数据的相关。结果显示：（1）取样大小对不同的问题有不同的影响：高取样在ΔP=0时导致了低估计值,在0<|ΔP|=PPC时没有效果,在|ΔP|相似文献   

Artifacts and natural kinds: children's judgments about whether objects are owned

People's behavior in relation to objects depends on whether they are owned. But how do people judge whether objects are owned? We propose that people expect human-made objects (artifacts) to be more likely to be owned than naturally occurring objects (natural kinds), and we examine the development of these expectations in young children. Experiment 1 found that when shown pictures of familiar kinds of objects, 3-year-olds expected artifacts to be owned and inanimate natural kinds to be non-owned. In Experiments 2A and 2B, 3-6-year-olds likewise had different expectations about the ownership of unfamiliar artifacts and natural kinds. Children at all ages viewed unfamiliar natural kinds as non-owned, but children younger than 6 years of age only endorsed artifacts as owned at chance rates. In Experiment 3, children saw the same pictures but were also told whether objects were human-made. With this information provided, even 3-year-olds viewed unfamiliar artifacts as owned. Finally, in Experiment 4, 4- and 5-year-olds chose unfamiliar artifacts over natural kinds when judging which object in a pair belongs to a person, but not when judging which the person prefers. These experiments provide first evidence about how children judge whether objects are owned. In contrast to claims that children think about natural kinds as being similar to artifacts, the current findings reveal that children have differing expectations about whether they are owned.     

Statistical judgments are influenced by the implied likelihood that samples represent the same population

When sample information is combined, it is generally considered normative to weight information based on larger samples more heavily than information based on smaller samples. However, if samples appear likely to have been drawn from different subpopulations, it is reasonable to combine estimates of these subpopulation means (typically, the sample means) without weighting these estimates by sample size. This study investigated whether laypeople are influenced by the likelihood of samples coming from the same population when determining how to combine information. In two experiments we show that (1) implied binomial variability affected participants’ judgments of the likelihood that a sample was drawn from a given population, (2) participants' judgments were more affected by sample size when samples were implied to be drawn randomly from a general population, compared to when they were implied to be drawn from different subpopulations, and (3) people higher in numeracy gave more normative responses. We conclude that when determining how to weight and combine samples, laypeople use not only the provided data, but also information about likelihood and sampling processes that these data imply.     

Vertical disparity affects shape and size judgments across surfaces separated in depth

Vertical binocular disparity provides a useful source of information allowing three-dimensional (3-D) shape to be recovered from horizontal binocular disparity. In order to influence metric shape judgments, a large field of view is required, suggesting that vertical disparity may play a limited role in the perception of objects projecting small retinal images. This limitation could be overcome if vertical disparity information could be pooled over wide areas of 3-D space. This was investigated by assessing the effect of vertical disparity scaling of a large surround surface on the perceived size and 3-D shape of a small, central object. Observers adjusted the size and shape of a virtual, binocularly defined ellipsoid to match those of a real, hand-held tennis ball. The virtual ball was presented at three distances (200, 325, and 450 mm). Vertical disparities in a large surround surface were manipulated to be consistent with a distance of 160 mm or infinity. Both shape and size settings were influenced by this manipulation. This effect did not depend on presenting the surround and target objects at the same distance. These results suggest that the influence of vertical disparity on the perceived distance to a surface also affects the estimated distance of other visible surfaces. Vertical disparities are therefore important in the perception of metric depth, even for objects that in themselves subtend only small retinal images.     

Determining whether attentional control settings are inclusive or exclusive

The aim of the present study was to determine whether attentional control settings operate with an inclusive rule (orient attention to stimuli that share a task-relevant feature with the target) or an exclusive rule (do not orient attention to stimuli that do not share a task-relevant feature with the target). All three experiments used a variation of the Folk and Remington (e.g., Folk, Remington, & Johnston, 1992) paradigm. In Experiment 1, cuing effects were found for combination cues (cues containing an onset feature and a color feature) with both onset and color targets. Experiment 2, using a delay between cue and target, revealed inhibition of return (IOR) for combination cues with onset and color targets. Unexpectedly, IOR was also found for onset cues with color targets, and this finding was confirmed in Experiment 3. These findings indicate that attentional control settings use an inclusive rule. Moreover, the presence of IOR with onset cues and color targets suggests that onset cues may automatically capture attention, but attention control settings allow for rapid disengagement when the onset cue does not contain a task-relevant feature.     

Ignorance is no excuse: moral judgments are influenced by a genetic variation on the oxytocin receptor gene

Perspective-taking has become a main focus of studies on moral judgments. Recent fMRI studies have demonstrated that individual differences in brain activation predict moral decision making. In particular, pharmacological studies highlighted the crucial role for the neuropeptide oxytocin in social behavior and emotional perception. In the present study N=154 participants were genotyped for a functional polymorphism (rs2268498) in the promoter region of the OXTR gene. We found a significant difference between carriers and non-carriers of the C-allele in exculpating agents for accidental harms (F((1,152))=11.49, p=.001, η(2)=.07) indicating that carriers of the C-allele rated accidentally committed harm as significantly more blameworthy than non-carriers. This is the first study providing evidence for a genetic contribution to moral judgments.     

Predictability influences whether outcomes are processed in terms of original or relative values

Previous studies have provided insights into the representations of original and relative values and the influence of predictability on decision making. However, whether the predictability of outcomes can influence the processing manner of outcomes (i.e. whether the outcomes are processed in terms of original or relative values) is still unknown. To investigate this issue, we had participants perform a monetary decision task which resulted in two outcomes with the same relative values but different original values in either a predictable or unpredictable condition, while recording event-related potentials (ERP). ERP results showed that the outcome processing in the unpredictable condition elicited more positive deflections in the time window of 300–500 ms (P300) than did those in the predictable condition. More importantly, the outcome with high original value elicited a greater P300 component than did that with low original value in the unpredictable condition even though these two outcomes had the same relative values, while in the predictable condition no significant difference was observed between ERPs elicited by the two outcomes even though their original values were different. These results suggest that the outcomes might be processed in terms of relative values in the predictable condition but original values in the unpredictable condition.     

The relative position priming effect depends on whether letters are vowels or consonants

The relative position priming effect is a type of subset priming in which target word recognition is facilitated as a consequence of priming the word with some of its letters, maintaining their relative position (e.g., csn as a prime for casino). Five experiments were conducted to test whether vowel-only and consonant-only subset primes contribute equally to this effect. Experiment 1 revealed that this subset priming effect emerged when primes were composed exclusively of consonants, compared with vowel-only primes (csn-casino vs. aia-animal). Experiment 2 tested the impact of letter frequency in this asymmetry. Subset priming effects were obtained for both high- and low-frequency consonants but not for vowels, which rules out a letter frequency explanation. Experiment 3 tested the role of phonology and its contribution to the priming effects observed, by decreasing the prime duration. The results showed virtually the same effects as in the previous experiments. Finally, Experiments 4 and 5 explored the influence of repeated letters in the primes on the magnitude of the priming effects obtained for consonant and vowel subset primes (iuo-dibujo and aea-madera vs. mgn-imagen and rtr-frutero). Again, the results confirmed the priming asymmetry. We propose that a functional distinction between consonants and vowels, mainly based on the lexical constraints imposed by each of these types of letters, might provide an explanation for the whole set of results.     

The environment influences whether high-fat foods are associated with palatable or with unhealthy

This study investigated whether relatively automatic evaluations of food differ between situations and between obese people and lean controls. These evaluations were assessed in the affective priming paradigm (APP) -- a response latency based measure for associations. In Experiment 1, we either focused participants (33 obese and 26 lean controls) on the palatability (restaurant condition) or on the healthiness (health condition) of food, prior to the APP. Independent of weight-status, relatively automatic evaluations of food were based on palatability in the restaurant condition, and on health in the health condition. So, the current focus of attention can shape the way foods are evaluated relatively automatically. In Experiment 2, craving was induced in participants (27 obese and 29 lean controls). Unexpectedly, the craving induction did not achieve its goal of focusing on the palatability of food in general, but just for low-fat foods, possibly because of the health-emphasizing environment -- a hospital. Interestingly, obese people showed a stronger palatability priming effect with increasing levels of initial craving. For normal weight controls the effect was in the same direction, but missed significance. In our environment, palatability of food may be too salient, and health may not be salient enough, influencing automatic food-evaluations.     

To generalize or not to generalize: spatial categories are influenced by physical attributes and language

The current work explored the conditions under which infants generalize spatial relationships from one event to another. English‐learning 5‐month‐olds habituated to a tight‐ or loose‐fit covering event dishabituated to a change in fit during a containment test event, but infants habituated to a visually similar occlusion event did not. Thus, infants’ responses appeared to be driven by the physical nature of the fit rather than visual similarity. This response pattern was replicated with Korean‐speaking adults, but English‐speaking adults showed no sensitivity to change in fit for either event. These findings suggest that language development links linguistic forms to universal, pre‐existing representations of meaning, and that linguistic experience can shape sensitivity to distinctions that are marked in one's native language.     

A sampling approach to biases in conditional probability judgments: beyond base rate neglect and statistical format

Conditional probability judgments of rare events are often inflated. Early accounts assumed a general deficit in using statistical base rates. More recent approaches predict improvement when problems are presented in frequency format or refer to natural categories. The present theory focuses on sampling processes. Experiment 1 showed that a seeming advantage of frequency over probability formats is due to a confounded factor, the need to mentally transform stimulus samples. An information search paradigm was used in Experiment 2. When sampling by the predictor, the probability to be estimated, p(criterion/predictor), was conserved in the samples and judgments were quite accurate. However, when sampling by the criterion, the low base-rate event was strongly overrepresented, accounting for the entire bias. Judgments were quite sensitive to the sampled data, but failed to take sampling constraints into account, as shown in Experiments 3 and 4.     

Performance bias: Why judgments of learning are not affected by learning

Past research has shown a performance bias: People expect their future performance level on a task to match their current performance level, even when there are good reasons to expect future performance to differ from current performance. One explanation of this bias is that judgments are controlled by what learners can observe, and while current performance is usually observable, changes in performance (i.e., learning or forgetting) are not. This explanation makes a prediction that we tested here: If learning becomes observable, it should begin to affect judgments. In three experiments, after practicing a skill, participants estimated how they performed in the past and how they expected to perform in the future. In Experiments 1 and 2, participants knew they had been improving, as shown by their responses, yet they did not predict that they would improve in the future. This finding was particularly striking because (a) they did improve in the future and (b) as Experiment 3 showed, they did hold the conscious belief that past improvement predicted future improvement. In short, when learning and performance are both observable, judgments of learning seem to be guided by performance and not learning.     

More accurate size contrast judgments in the Ebbinghaus Illusion by a remote culture

The Ebbinghaus (Titchener) illusion was examined in a remote culture (Himba) with no words for geometric shapes. The illusion was experienced less strongly by Himba compared with English participants, leading to more accurate size contrast judgments in the Himba. The study included two conditions of inducing stimuli. The illusion was weaker when the inducing stimuli were dissimilar (diamonds) to the target (circle) compared with when they were similar (circles). However, the illusion was weakened to the same extent in both cultures. It is argued that the more accurate size judgments of the Himba derive from their tendency to prioritize the analysis of local details in visual processing of multiple objects, and not from their impoverished naming.     

Optimum sample size allocation to minimize cost or maximize power for the two‐sample trimmed mean test

When planning a study, sample size determination is one of the most important tasks facing the researcher. The size will depend on the purpose of the study, the cost limitations, and the nature of the data. By specifying the standard deviation ratio and/or the sample size ratio, the present study considers the problem of heterogeneous variances and non‐normality for Yuen's two‐group test and develops sample size formulas to minimize the total cost or maximize the power of the test. For a given power, the sample size allocation ratio can be manipulated so that the proposed formulas can minimize the total cost, the total sample size, or the sum of total sample size and total cost. On the other hand, for a given total cost, the optimum sample size allocation ratio can maximize the statistical power of the test. After the sample size is determined, the present simulation applies Yuen's test to the sample generated, and then the procedure is validated in terms of Type I errors and power. Simulation results show that the proposed formulas can control Type I errors and achieve the desired power under the various conditions specified. Finally, the implications for determining sample sizes in experimental studies and future research are discussed.     

Spatio-temporal parameters in infant's reaching movements are influenced by body orientation

Many studies have demonstrated that the seated position is more effective in promoting reaching movements when compared with supine. The aim of this longitudinal study was to verify the effect of seated and supine positions on spatio-temporal parameters of reaching in 4-6-month-old infants. Four infants were observed during reaching trials in both positions. A total of 235 reaches were analyzed by using the 3D movement reconstruction. Our results showed that frequency of reaching and straightness index increased over age. Significant differences between the positions were observed at 4 months, when the frequency increased and the duration and deceleration time decreased in the seated position. There were no significant differences at 5 and 6 months. These findings suggest that young infants are able to change kinematical parameters of reaching to adapt themselves to intrinsic and extrinsic constraints (i.e. age and position).     

Eye fixations are influenced by the distribution of information within words

Reader's eye movements were monitored while they inspected isolated words in preparation for a synonym judgement task. The 10-letter words appeared on a screen near the point of fixation, with the first fixation being imposed near the beginning, or the centre, or the ending of the word. The words themselves had uneven distributions of information, in that the beginnings or the endings contained common sequences of letters in English. Three types of words were used: those with very redundant endings (e.g., yearningly), with moderately redundant endings (e.g., varnishing), and with moderately redundant beginnings (e.g., contravene). Redundancy was defined in terms of the total number of words in English which possess that particular sequence of five letters as the beginning or the ending. The experiments asked whether the convenient viewing location within a word varied according to the distribution of information, and whether the extent of redundancy in a word ending is reflected in the distribution of visual attention given to the word. The results were analysed separately for those cases where the reader made just two fixations upon the word before moving to the synonym task, and for those cases where the reader made exactly three fixations. These were the dominant fixation patterns. Evidence for the notion of a convenient viewing position consisted of long first fixations (when there were just two fixations), when this fixation was near the centre of the word. The distribution of information within the words did not influence the duration of the first fixation, although the duration of the gaze within each half-word did increase when more informative letter sequences were being inspected. The extent of redundancy was also seen to influence the inspection patterns, when a comparison was made between the two types of words with redundant endings. Words with very redundant endings received fewer fixations when the first fixation was at the beginning, and for words gaining exactly two fixations, the second fixation was shorter if the word had a very redundant ending.     

The open-object illusion: size perception is greatly influenced by object boundaries

This study presents a new powerful visual illusion, in which simple “open” objects—ones with missing boundaries—are perceived as bigger than the same size, fully “closed” objects. In a series of experiments that employed a continuous-response adjustment procedure, it was found that the lack of vertical boundaries inflated the perceived width of an object, whereas the lack of horizontal boundaries inflated its perceived length. The effect was highly robust and it was replicated across different stimulus types and experimental parameters, with almost all observers exhibiting a strong effect. In contrast to the overestimation of the size of an object due to missing boundaries, the inclusion of inner boundaries within an object caused observers to underestimate its size, suggesting that filled space sometimes shrinks, rather than inflates, the perceived size of an object. The open-object illusion bears practical implications for graphics and design as well as important theoretical implications. Specifically, it indicates that the perception of an object’s area is not veridical but rather critically depends on contour closure. It is suggested that the visual system extends the missing boundaries of open contour objects, which results in an overestimation of the object’s size.     

Flexible mental processes in numerical size judgments: The case of hebrew letters that are used to convey numbers

In addition to its primary linguistic function, the Hebrew alphabet is sometimes used as a means of number notation (i.e., the system of gematria). Hebrew letters, Arabic numerals, Hebrew number names, and Hebrew letter names were used in a numerical size comparison task, in which two visually presented symbols were compared for numerical value while irrelevant variations in their physical size had to be ignored. A size congruity effect, indicated by faster responses when differences in physical and numerical size were consistent, was larger for Arabic numerals than for number names. The effect for Hebrew letters was similar to that for Arabic numerals and was stronger than that observed for letter names. These results suggest flexible processing of Hebrew letters, so that they function as ideographic symbols in an arithmetic context. A distance effect, indicated by an inverse relationship between reaction time and numerical distance, was found for all notations but was particularly strong for Hebrew letters.     

Sample size for multiple regression: obtaining regression coefficients that are accurate, not simply significant

An approach to sample size planning for multiple regression is presented that emphasizes accuracy in parameter estimation (AIPE). The AIPE approach yields precise estimates of population parameters by providing necessary sample sizes in order for the likely widths of confidence intervals to be sufficiently narrow. One AIPE method yields a sample size such that the expected width of the confidence interval around the standardized population regression coefficient is equal to the width specified. An enhanced formulation ensures, with some stipulated probability, that the width of the confidence interval will be no larger than the width specified. Issues involving standardized regression coefficients and random predictors are discussed, as are the philosophical differences between AIPE and the power analytic approaches to sample size planning.     

Vowel and consonant judgments are not independent when cued by the same information

Despite many attempts to define the major unit of speech perception, none has been generally accepted. In a unique study, Mermelstein (1978) claimed that consonants and vowels are the appropriate units because a single piece of information (duration, in this case) can be used for one distinction without affecting the other. In a replication, this apparent independence was found, instead, to reflect a lack of statistical power: The vowel and consonant judgments did interact. In another experiment, interdependence of two phonetic judgments was found in responses based on the fricative noise and the vocalic formants of a fricative-vowel syllable. These results show that each judgment made on speech signals must take into account other judgments that compete for information in the same signal. An account is proposed that takes segments as the primary units, with syllables imposing constraints on the shape they may take.