Confidence and Uncertainty in Judgmental Forecasting: Differential Effects of Scenario Presentation

Multiple scenario analysis is used by many organizations for long-term planning, in part because the development of more than one scenario of the future is thought to prevent overconfidence in any one specific forecast. The present study attempts to clarify some of the questions concerning the cognitive effects of scenario presentation by distinguishing between confidence and subjective uncertainty. It examined the impact of different types of scenario information on confidence ratings, credible intervals, and features of forecast series. Subjects (N=186) read either one, two, or no scenario(s) describing potential changes in the level of a stimulus variable, then made forecasts of that variable over the next fifty years. Reading any type of scenario information increased confidence in forecasts; there was no reduction in confidence due to presentation of multiple conflicting scenarios, compared to presentation of only one scenario. Differences in number and in type of scenarios presented did, however, affect subjective uncertainty.     

Organizing Interactions in the Study of Judgmental Accuracy

Over the last two decades, an emphasis on cognitive factors in depression has contributed significantly to the psychological modeling of this disorder and to the development of effective treatments. This work has spanned basic processes of mood and cognition regulation as well as more applied work in the evaluation of psychotherapy outcome, short-term therapy delivery, and adherence to protocol. Reconciliation of cognitive models of depression with more recent experimental work, and the implications of the success of models that emphasize primarily noncognitive variables in predicting and treating depression, has yet to be fully explored. To grapple with these challenges, the Consensus Development Conference on Cognitive Models of Depression was convened to appraise the field and advise on future directions in the areas of cognitive models, cognitive assessment, cognitive vulnerability, and theoretical integration. This report describes obstacles to the continued progress of this approach for understanding affective disorders and psychological distress in general and offers specific recommendations for research strategies thought to be most productive for their resolution.     

The Effects of the Cognitive Interview on Recall,Identification, Confidence and the Confidence/Accuracy Relationship

The effects of two interview techniques, the Cognitive Interview (CI) and the Structured Interview (SI), were examined in relation to recall, recognition, confidence and the confidence/accuracy relationship. Volunteer subjects witnessed a live staged event, and at set time delays (48 and 96 hours) were interviewed by means of either the CI or SI and made lineup identifications from both blank and filled lineup presentations. The CI significantly improved total recall (p<0.001) and correct recall (p<0.001) relative to the SI. There were no differences in either accuracy or error rates for the two conditions. The CI produced significantly higher ‘pre-post interview’ confidence ratings than the SI (p<0.05). Within-, between- and event-confidence ratings were not predictive of recall or recognition accuracy. Failure to find a significant consistent confidence/accuracy relationship was suggested to have occurred because of the operation of an accuracy assessment heuristic. The CI did not reliably improve identification from a filled lineup presentation relative to the SI, but did produce better performance on a blank lineup presentation (p<0.001). Confidence and the confidence/accuracy relationship involving identifications were not found to differ as a function of interview condition. Throughout the study multiple regression analyses failed to reveal consistent predictors of recall or recognition accuracy, confidence or the confidence/accuracy relationship of these two domains. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Confidence-Accuracy Relationship: The Effects of Confidence Assessment and Choosing1

Male and female college undergraduates were exposed to a staged theft. For half of the subjects, confidence judgments were assessed both before and after viewing a photo lineup. For the other half, confidence judgments were assessed only after viewing the lineup. Subjects in both conditions viewed a target-present or target-absent lineup under negativey biased, unbiased, or positively biased instructions. Across all subjects, confidence and accuracy were significantly correlated (r= .30). There was a significantly stronger relationship between confidence and accuracy among choosers (r= 50) than among nonchoosers (r= .14). Choosing and confidence did not correlate significantly with each other. Identification accuracy was significantly poorer when witnesses had been asked before viewing the lineup to state their confidence that they would make an accurate identification than when confidence was measured only after an identification had been attempted. However, the before-after manipulation did not affect the magnitude of the confidence-accuracy relationship. The present results offer some support for the general proposition that choosing and the timing of confidence assessments should be viewed as moderating variables in the interpretation of the confidence-accuracy relationship. These data offer little support for predictions based upon self-perception theory and are in direct disagreement with the widely held assertion that witnesses are confident in whatever choice they make, regardless of its correctness.     

The Role of Individual Differences in the Accuracy of Confidence Judgments

Generally, self-assessment of accuracy in the cognitive domain produces overconfidence, whereas self-assessment of visual perceptual judgments results in under-confidence. Despite contrary empirical evidence, in models attempting to explain those phenomena, individual differences have often been disregarded. The authors report on 2 studies in which that shortcoming was addressed. In Experiment 1, participants (N = 520) completed a large number of cognitive-ability tests. Results indicated that individual differences provide a meaningful source of overconfidence and that a metacognitive trait might mediate that effect. In further analysis, there was only a relatively small correlation between test accuracy and confidence bias. In Experiment 2 (N = 107 participants), both perceptual and cognitive ability tests were included, along with measures of personality. Results again indicated the presence of a confidence factor that transcended the nature of the testing vehicle. Furthermore, a small relationship was found between that factor and some self-reported personality measures. Thus, personality traits and cognitive ability appeared to play only a small role in determining the accuracy of self-assessment. Collectively, the present results suggest that there are multiple causes of miscalibration, which current models of over- and underconfidence fail to encompass.     

Gender Differences in the Self-Assessment of Accuracy on Cognitive Tasks

Generally, self-assessment of accuracy in the cognitive domain produces overconfidence, whereas self-assessment of the accuracy of visual perceptual judgments produces underconfidence. The possible effect of gender differences on these robust findings appears to be underinvestigated. In this paper, I report two studies that take a step toward redressing this shortcoming. In Study 1, a group of young adults (N =185) were presented with a test of General Knowledge and a visual perceptual task. The results indicated the typical over/underconfidence phenomena noted above, but, when analyzed by sex, indicated statistically significant differences; men were more confident than women on both tasks. In Study 2, participants (N =303) with a wider age range completed 4 tests of cognitive ability, which were drawn from the theory of fluid and crystallized intelligence. Results indicated that the tendency for men to express higher levels of confidence than women in the accuracy of their work appears to remain constant across the life-span. These findings are discussed in relation to self-concept and gender stereotyping.     

Stability/Instability of Cognitive Strategies Across Tasks Determine Whether Stress Will Affect Judgmental Processes'

Previous research indicates that individuals employ various cognitive heuristics and decision modes in making decisions and judgmental tasks that do not follow an expected value model. It further indicates that several cognitive faculties are affected by stress. The purpose of this study was twofold: first, to examine whether individual differences exist in the use of cognitive heuristics and risk-assessment decision modes; second, to examine whether stress would affect the use of these cognitive strategies. Three versions of a questionnaire measuring the representativeness and availability heuristics, and risk-seeking and risk-aversion decision modes were administered to three different groups of subjects. Consistent individual differences were only observed in the subscales measuring risk-seeking and risk-aversion modes, but not in the use of the heuristics. In a different group of subjects, exposure to noise and task overload stress increased the use of the representativeness heuristic, but did not alter the use of risk-seeking and risk-aversion decision modes. These results indicate that the existence of individual differences in cognitive strategies may determine, in part, whether stress will modify judgmental processes.     

Determinants of Confidence in Accuracy of Knowledge Retrieval

It was hypothesised that retrospective feelings of confidence in accuracy of knowledge retrieval are, at least in part, influenced by factors that differ from those responsible for the accuracy of knowledge retrieval. The initial level of confidence was suggested to be a major determinant of retrospective confidence which does not affect performance, and quality of available information was thought to be a determinant of performance quality which does not affect retrospective feelings of confidence. To test these hypotheses, bank managers were presented with cases of trials in the domain of banking law. The managers were provided with information which could have either low, medium or high diagnostic value and were asked to predict the trial outcome. Half the cases were difficult and half were easy in terms of being able to predict the outcome. Levels of managers' initial and retrospective feelings of confidence were measured. The hypotheses were supported and it was suggested that the lack of sensitivity of a person's retrospective confidence to his or her actual performance level is related to the dissociation between processes leading to feelings of retrospective confidence and processes responsible for performance quality.     

Delay and Age Effects on Identification Accuracy and Confidence: An Investigation Using a Video Identification Parade

A total of 236 children (7–8‐year‐olds and 13–14‐year‐olds) attempted identification from either target‐present (TP) or target‐absent (TA) video parades, after either two days or two weeks, following exposure to a live target. It was found that with TP line‐ups, the most frequent response was a correct identification, but in the TA condition, the most frequent response was a false identification. Under both TP and TA conditions, the 3‐way interaction of delay, age and response was significant. Further analysis revealed that delay was the major contributor of variance, causing an increase in errors for both age groups in TP delayed line‐ups but only for the younger age group in TA delayed line‐ups. Confidence varied as a function of type of identification response made, with the highest confidence being given to a correct identification in a TP line‐up. However, response confidence entered into a number of interactions involving both delay and age. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effects of Fluency Versus Accuracy Training on Endurance and Retention of Assembly Tasks by Four Adolescents with Developmental Disabilities

Schools are increasingly being encouraged to teach vocational skills to middle and high school students. Although extensive research exists demonstrating the benefits of fluency instruction when teaching academic skills to this population of students, few studies have examined the importance of fluency training when teaching vocational skills. Using an alternating treatments design, the present study examined the effects of fluency versus accuracy training on 4 students’ fluency in completing 2 vocational tasks. Following the training phase, students completed each task during 20- and 40-min work sessions to assess endurance and retention of the trained skills. Overall, results suggest that the fluency condition produced greater work productivity.     

The Influence of Perpetrator Exposure Time and Weapon Presence/Timing on Eyewitness Confidence and Accuracy

Crimes can occur in a matter of seconds, with little time available for an eyewitness to encode a perpetrator's face. The presence of a weapon can further exacerbate this situation. Few studies have featured mock crimes of short duration, especially with a weapon manipulation. We conducted an experiment to investigate the impact of weapon presence and short perpetrator exposure times (3 vs. 10 seconds) on eyewitness confidence and accuracy. We found that recall concerning the perpetrator was worse when a weapon was present, replicating the weapon focus effect. However, there was no effect on eyewitness identification accuracy. Calibration analyses revealed that all conditions produced a strong confidence–accuracy relationship. Confidence–accuracy characteristic curves illustrated almost perfect accuracy for suspect identifications at the highest levels of confidence. We conclude that weapon presence during a brief crime does not necessarily result in negative consequences for either eyewitness identification accuracy or the confidence–accuracy relationship. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

学生提取自信度判断准确性的发展

采用3×3×2(年龄,材料,性别)三因素混合实验设计,按照学习成绩好、中、差分层随机选取小二、初二、大二学生被试各18名,其中男女各半,利用不同难度的材料,对被试提取自信度准确性的发展进行了考察。被试的判断等级与被试的记忆成绩之间的两点距随年龄而变化。而这种变化在不同难度间有不同的表现。(1)提取自信度准确性从小二到初二发展迅速,表现出显著差异;初二到大二阶段年龄差异不显著。材料难度对不同年级的被试提取自信度判断准确性的影响不同。材料难度越小,提取自信度准确性发展得越早。(2)提取自信度准确性发展的性别差异不显著。     

不同回忆任务下小学生即时学习判断的准确性

学习判断是指对当前已经学习的项目在以后测验中成绩的预见性判断。本研究以小学五年级学生为被试,选取正向词对和反向词对为实验材料,考察不同回忆任务下小学生学习判断的准确性及偏差。研究发现,小学五年级学生的即时学习判断的准确性受到词对类型和回忆任务的影响:(1)小学生线索回忆任务下的学习判断中,正向词对的准确性较好,反向词对出现了高估,表现出了学习判断的预见偏差;(2)自由回忆任务下的学习判断中,两种词对都出现了显著的高估。研究结果丰富和细化了流畅性假说对学习判断加工机制的解释,并提出即时学习判断准确性的偏差是由于编码流畅性和提取流畅性的差异造成的。     

The Effects of Group Discussion on Eyewitness Accuracy

Previous research on group performance in judgmental tasks reveals that groups are rarely inferior, and often superior, to the average individual. The present study examined whether this pattern of results extends to the accuracy of eyewitness reports of a crime. It was found that group discussion led to accounts that were significantly more accurate than the average individual. A requirement to reach a unanimous decision did not alter any of the effects of group discussion. Group superiority was especially clear in terms of the completeness of the reports and in estimations of the duration of the incident. The discussion considered the implications of the present results for the current practice of prohibiting group discussion as an aid to the preparation of testimony.     

Communication of Confidence as a Determinant of Group Judgment Accuracy

The performance of interacting groups is often viewed as a function of the groups' ability to identify and weight their better members' judgments (Einhorn, Hogarth, & Klempner, 1977). Accurate identification of the best group member is facilitated by individuals accurately assessing confidence in their own individual judgments and accurately communicating their confidence during group interaction (Sniezek & Henry, 1989). This paper examines the communication of confidence in interacting groups in two ways: by observing the performance of interacting groups for which confidence is anticipated to be communicated with high accuracy, and by observing the effects of changes in the group interaction setting that vary group members' ability to communicate confidence. This is achieved by examining the performance of a special type of interacting group, a laboratory financial market, that encourages relatively accurate communication of confidence and that can be modified to manipulate the extent to which confidence can be communicated. Results reveal generally high performance of groups which interact in settings that are conducive to communication of confidence, and significant learning from the interaction process by all group members (including the best member). Results also indicate a significant decrease in the performance of groups whose ability to communicate confidence during interaction is reduced.     

Counselor Confidence and Accuracy of Prognoses of Success or Failure

This study assessed the accuracy of predictions of freshman and overall college scholastic performance made by groups of high school counselors, college advisors, and counseling psychologists from a university counseling center in relation to the confidence of these judges that their prognoses were accurate. Predictions were made from three sets of case information. The results revealed that: (1) the degree of confidence counselors indicated in their freshman and overall college “pass” predictions was appropriately related to accuracy; (2) counselor confidence in freshman “fail” predictions was not related to accuracy although the “fail” judgments tended to be more accurate than the “pass” prognoses; (3) counselor confidence in their overall “fail” predictions was not significantly related to accuracy and, unlike the results for the freshman judgments, the overall “fail” predictions were not more accurate than the “pass” predictions; (4) the amount of case data available was not related to counselor predictive accuracy.     

判断预测的心理偏差及产生机制

心理学对判断预测的研究主要关注预测的偏差及产生机制。判断预测中的偏差有两类：偏见和不一致。偏见主要表现：趋势阻尼;提高效应;给预测结果增加随机噪音。不一致包括：信息获得导致的不一致;信息加工导致的不一致。偏差的出现一是与信息加工过程有关,二是与序列的特征与呈现方式有关。研究发现提供反馈、分解、组合和建议采纳等策略可以增进判断预测的准确性。     

Effects of Grammatical Categories on Letter Detection in Continuous Text

The present study focuses on the interplay between the linguistic principles and the psycholinguistic processes involved in reading. Results from 56 participants on a letter detection task reveal that readers do not process all function words in the same manner. Omission rates were highest for function words occupying the head of maximal projections such as complementizers and determiners. Prepositions were shown to occupy an intermediary position between content and function words, with omission rates varying depending on their semantic load. Together these results appear to bolster and offer a finer grained picture of the role of function words within the framework of both the Guidance Organization (Greenberg et al. in Psychon Bull Rev 11(3):428–433, 2004) and Attentional Disengagement (Roy-Charland et al. in Percept Psychophys 69(3):324–337, 2007) reading models. The results of the present study are discussed using an X-bar theory approach with the goal of refining the structural account of letter detection errors.     

自尊对自我确认倾向的影响：来自认知判断的证据

通过改编后的“整体自尊问卷”和“交谈自尊问卷”筛选出整体自尊和交谈自尊高低不同的四组被试,采用认知判断指标测量被试的自我确认倾向,通过模拟现实人际互动情境,在评价人对被试的交谈表现提供不同评价(肯定或否定)及表达不同交友态度(接受或排斥)的条件下,考察了整体自尊与特殊自尊对人际互动过程中自我确认倾向的影响。研究结果表明,与一致性需求的满足有关的特殊自尊调节着自我确认倾向,而与社交需求的满足有关的整体自尊对自我确认倾向的影响在整体上不具普遍性。