Decision Making: Research and Theory Challenges for Applied Social Psychology

The potential for contributions by applied social psychology to decision research and theory is explored. Most decisions by groups and individuals are social in origin or impact, suggesting that social psychologists should consider decision making as a relevant topic. Early applied work is considered. Mathematical model approaches are explored. Both are found wanting, especially where we wish to apply our science to complex and multiple uncertain decision problems. Examples of recent relevant research that fit well into an applied social psychological framework are provided, indicating the variety of potential topics for investigations. Finally, the need for encompassing theory is considered. The characteristics of needed theory are discussed.     

Individual Versus Group Decision Making: Social Comparison in Goals for Individual Task Performance

This experiment compares the decisions of individuals and groups on goals for the performance expected from individuals on a problem-solving or an error-checking task. For both tasks, two versions were constructed to reflect low and high levels of task difficulty. Predictions from two different social comparison of abilities approaches were formulated, with the social comparison based on success approach predicting that group goals would be easier than individual goals, while social comparison based on performance predicted the opposite pattern. Consistent with the social comparison based on success predictions, group goals were observed to be significantly less difficult than individual goals for both tasks, both levels of task difficulty, and for both an initial and a second goal-setting occasion. Of particular interest was a finding that the easier group goals reflected group member preferences for easy goals in anticipation of group decision making. It is proposed that social factors such as evaluation apprehension and social comparison may be responsible for the differences observed in group and individual goal decisions, and that social factors may have an important role in a variety of goal-setting situations.     

The Rank-Order Effect in Group Decision Making

Many studies indicate that group discussion candisproportionately reflect information known by all group members,at the expense of information known to only one group member, andthis is associated with suboptimal group decisions (Stasser &Titus, 1985). The present study examined the impact of threeprocedural factors on information sharing and quality of groupdecision: (a) group decision procedure (an instruction to "rankorder the alternatives" vs "choose the best alternative"), (b)information access during group discussion (reliance on memory vscomplete access), and (c) communication technology (computer vsface to face). Three-person groups worked on an investment decisionthat was structured as a hidden-profile task where criticalinformation was distributed unevenly prior to group discussion. Thedata provided support for a rank-order effect: Groups instructedto rank order the alternatives, compared to groups instructed tochoose the best alternative, were more likely to fully consider allof the alternatives, exchange information about unpopularalternatives, and make the best decision. But these effects onlyoccurred in face-to-face groups. In computer-mediated groups, therewas general information suppression and no effect of group decisionprocedure. Access to information during group discussion increaseddiscussion of both unique and common information, in theface-to-face conditions, but had no effect on group decisionquality. Taken together, the data suggest that procedural aspectsof group discussion may help overcome the impact of prediscussionpreferences on information processes and group decision.     

The Theory and Practice of Foreign Policy Decision Making

Central to Alex George's work was a concern with the psychology of presidential decision making. Our analysis focuses on George's work at the intersection of leadership psychology and the psychology of judgment in the making of consequential foreign policy decisions, specifically those dealing with issues of war and peace. We begin with a review of the fundamental dilemmas of political decision making, focusing on the various factors that present challenges to leaders seeking to make high-quality decisions. We then move to an analysis of the nature of judgment and the ways in which it both shapes and is shaped by cognitive dynamics and conclude by examining a number of steps designed to help leaders avoid the most damaging blind spots of their own psychologies and cognitive biases.     

Decision Making in Vocational Theory: Evolution and Implications

This article examines the evolution of decision making from a position of minor significance to one of primary importance in vocational theory.     

多层次团队决策理论及其进展

1 引言随着组织扁平化的发展,分布式专长团队在组织中得到广泛运用。这种团队的特点是:团队包括一个团队领导;成员专长具有差异性和互补性;成员可以来自相同或不同的组织;团队领导作最终决策;衡量决策质量的标准是决策结果的对或错。当前有关群体决策的研究相当多,其特点是群体成员的地位平等,共同分享有关决策问题的知识,决策的主要目标是达成认知一致。因此,传统的群体决策理论不能简单地推广到分布式专长团队中,团队决策需要新的理论支撑。本文介绍其中的多层次团队决策理论及其最新研究进展。     

Making a Difference: The Social Ecology of Social Transformation

A multidisciplinary and multilevel framework for social transformation is proposed, encompassing four foundational goals: capacity-building, group empowerment, relational community-building, and culture-challenge. Intervention approaches related to each goal are presented at the setting, geographic community, and societal levels. Four exemplars of social transformation work are then discussed: the Accelerated Schools Project, Meyerhoff Program, ManKind Project, and women's movement. These examples illustrate the synergistic relationship among the four transformational goals, within and across levels of analysis, which is at the heart of the social transformation process. The paper concludes with three challenges to guide our efforts as we enter the new century: (1) to move social transformation to the center of our consciousness as a field; (2) to articulate jointly with allied disciplines, organizations, and citizen groups an encompassing, multidisciplinary, and multilevel framework for social transformation; and (3) to do the above with heart, soul, and humility.     

决策的加工过程及个体差异:模糊痕迹理论视角

模糊痕迹理论是行为决策领域的重要解释理论,它认为个体在加工信息时存在字面加工和要义加工两种方式,在决策时个体更倾向于使用要义加工,而且这两种加工存在个体差异。决策的加工模型依据模糊痕迹理论提出,以框架效应和风险知觉为例对该模型进行解释。模糊痕迹理论通过分析加工方式的个体差异来解释决策的个体差异。未来研究应进一步比较模糊痕迹理论与其他理论,完善根据模糊痕迹理论提出的决策加工模型,并深入探索决策的个体差异。     

不对称社会困境中的决策:行为的双重模式

社会困境中的互依结构与不对称关系共同造就了两种不同且稳定的社会知觉模式。与此相应,个体存在两种行为模式,即(1)关注于力量与分层的垂直模式;(2)关注于道德与和谐的水平模式。在不对称社会困境中,那些在社会中占据强势位置的个体更可能采取垂直取向的行为模式,从而做出背叛选择,而那些占据弱势位置的个体则更可能采取水平取向的行为模式,从而做出合作选择。然而,个体动机会改变这种不对称社会结构与社会困境中决策之间的关系。这一观点很好地解释了相关研究,但仍需要深入发展和检验。     

The Effect of Other-Oriented Values on Decision Making: A Test of Propositions of a Theory of Concern for Others in Organizations

Based on recent theoretical work by Simon (1990, 1993), we proposed that the value of concern for others would reflect a general process whereby individuals place less value on personal outcomes and are less disposed to engage in rational calculations involving costs and benefits. We conducted two studies to examine whether these mechanisms generalize to situations that do not involve helping others. In the first study, persons high in concern for others were less attracted to choices involving the prospect of personal gain and were less discerning about the value and risk involved in making choices than were individuals low in concern for others. The second study showed that positive affective arousal, which is likely to focus attention on personal concerns, moderated the effects observed in the first study. Results suggest that other-oriented values such as concern for others may have a substantial impact on a wide range of organizational processes beyond helping.     

基于信号检测论的新业务投资决策有限理性实验

采用情境模拟实验,以60名MBA/EMBA学员为被试,对新业务投资决策的4个主要因素、36个处理、12个信号检测单元进行了观察分析.研究发现:①辨别力最强的决策信息组合、判断标准最高的决策信息组合,以及辨别力和判断标准 "双低"的决策信息组合;②影响决策者的有限理性存在程度差别,强弱依次是投资情境、面对机会、投资模式和以往机会.     

Information Suppression and Status Persistence in Group Decision Making The Effects of Communication Media

This experiment investigated the conditions under which a member with information critical for making the best group decision will positively influence the group's final choice. The impact of two factors on group decision quality, information exchange, and perceptions of influence was examined: (a) status differences among members (equal-status vs. mixed-status groups) and (b) communication media (face-to-face vs. computer-mediated communication). Three-person groups were composed such that the critical information required to make the best decision was given only to the low-status member in the mixed-status groups and randomly assigned to one member in the equal-status groups. The results indicated that the mixed-status groups made poorer decisions and made fewer references to critical information than equal-status groups, regardless of the communication medium. Computer-mediated communication suppressed information exchange and the perceived influence of group members, suggesting that the relation between status and communication media is more complex than proposed in past research.     

权力、任务框架对自我和为他人决策时风险偏好的影响

采用情境回忆任务启动被试的权力,并引入收益和损失两种任务框架,综合考察权力高低、任务框架对自我决策和为他人决策时风险偏好的影响。结果表明:(1)在为他人决策中,启动高权力被试有更强的风险偏好,而自我决策中,高、低权力启动组被试风险偏好上无显著差异;(2)在为他人决策中,被试在收益框架和损失框架下的风险偏好差异不显著,而在自我决策中,损失框架下的风险偏好显著高于收益框架;(3)低权力启动的被试,在损失框架下,为他人决策的风险偏好要小于自我决策,而在收益框架下差异不显著;高权力启动的被试无论在收益框架还是损失框架,自我-他人风险决策都不存在显著差异。     

Cognitive Diversity and Consensus in Group Decision Making: The Role of Inputs, Processes, and Outcomes

This study contributes to the new and growing body of research on shared cognition by examining how individuals entering a group decision-making context with different perspectives of the issues to be discussed arrive at cognitive consensus. Cognitive consensus refers to similarity among group members regarding how key matters are conceptualized and was operationalized as shared assumptions underlying decision issues in the present research. Utilizing 37 student groups participating in a multi-issue decision-making exercise, the study investigated antecedents and correlates of cognitive consensus. Results revealed that unanimity decision rule groups achieved more cognitive consensus than majority rule groups. In addition, group members inquiring concerning the reasons underlying others' decision preferences, accepting others' viewpoints as legitimate, and incorporating others' perspectives into their own interpretations of the issues was positively related to arriving at a greater degree of cognitive consensus. Cognitive consensus also positively influenced expectations regarding decision implementation and satisfaction.     

The Effects of Decision Outcome Dispersion Upon Organizational Decision Making

The effects of varying decision outcome dispersion on organizational decision making were investigated under individual and group decision making conditions. Thirty-six female and pg]36 male subjects made decisions for organizational decision scenarios in which outcomes affected primarily the decision maker, people other than the decision maker, or a group of which the decision maker was a member. Subjects rated their levels of perceived risk and confidence in their decisions and made decisions within a simulated context of either a small or a large organization. Results indicated that subjects perceived significantly less risk and more confidence in their decisions when outcomes affected primarily themselves rather than others regardless of whether the decisions were made individually or by a group. Males perceived their decisions as significantly more risky than females. Induced organizational size did not significantly influence decision making.

     

The Evaluation of Culpability for Rape: A Model of Legal Decision Making

An analogy was borrowed from the law to develop a legal model of the attribution of responsibility for rape. According to the model, judgments of physical and psychological causality of an alleged rapist are combined into overall evaluations of attacker responsibility. An experimental test of the model was conducted with college students. Results showed that witness identification information influenced judgments of physical causality (i.e., extent to which the situation was perceived as rape), and information about the relationship between the alleged attacker and victim influenced judgments of psychological causality (i.e., intention to rape). Judgments of physical and psychological causality interacted significantly with overall attributions of attacker responsibility.     

Group and Individual Decision Making for Task Performance Goals: Processes in the Establishment of Goals:in Groups1

The study examines the processes by which goals in groups are established. Performance goals and preferences for goals were stated by individuals acting alone, by groups deciding in unison, and by group members. All subjects performed a card-sorting task as individuals, and self-set goals were selected for expected levels of individual performance. Groups selected goals that were less difficult than individual goals on several occasions of goal setting. Analysis of the group goal decisions suggests that a success-based social comparison process occurs that implies groups select a goal slightly lower than the average of the member preferences so that the group members may appear successful. Analyses also indicated that the lower group goals arose quickly in the group interaction, and that group members readily adopted the lower goals as appropriate levels of performance. Discussion focuses on the observed differences among group, group member, and individual performance goals, and the ability of the success-based social comparison process to account for these differences.