Goodness of fit of trend curves and significance of trend differences

Experimental studies of the successive changes (frequently represented by curves describing laws of learning and other similar functional relationships) in a criterion variable accompanying experimental variations in a given treatment, and experimental comparisons of such changes for different populations or for different treatments, constitute a large and important class of psychological experiments. In most such experiments, no attempt has been made to analyze or to make allowance for errors of sampling or of observation. In many others, the techniques of error analysis that have been employed have been inefficient, inexact, or inappropriate. This paper suggests tests, using the methods of analysis of variance, of certain hypotheses concerning trends and trend differences in sample means obtained in experiments of this general type. For means of successive independent samples, tests are provided of the hypotheses: (H ₁) that there is no trend, or that the trend is a horizontal straight line, (H ₃) that there is a linear trend, (H ₅) that the trend is as described by a line not derived from the observed means, and (H ₇) that the trend is as described by a line fitted to the observed means. Tests are also provided of similar hypotheses (H ₂,H ₄,H ₆, andH ₈, respectively) for means of successive measurements of the same sample. Finally, tests are provided of the null hypotheses that there is no difference in trend in two series of means: (H ₉) when each mean in each series is based on an independent sample, (H ₁₀) when each pair of corresponding means is based on an independent sample, (H ₁₁) when each series of means is based on an independent sample, and (H ₁₂) when both series are based on a single sample.     

Alternative measures of fit for the Schönemann-carroll matrix fitting algorithm

In connection with a least-squares solution for fitting one matrix,A, to another,B, under optimal choice of a rigid motion and a dilation, Schönemann and Carroll suggested two measures of fit: a raw measure,e, and a refined similarity measure,e _s , which is symmetric. Both measures share the weakness of depending upon the norm of the target matrix,B,e.g.,e(A,kB) ≠e(A,B) fork ≠ 1. Therefore, both measures are useless for answering questions of the type: “DoesA fitB better thanA fitsC?”. In this note two new measures of fit are suggested which do not depend upon the norms ofA andB, which are (0, 1)-bounded, and which, therefore, provide meaningful answers for comparative analyses.     

The larger the cause,the larger the effect: evidence of speed judgment biases in causal scenarios

ABSTRACT

When two motions appear to be causally related, the spatiotemporal features of motions are sometimes distorted in order to increase the consistency with causal impressions. Here, in four experiments, we tested if varying the speed of an object A could affect the judged speed of an object B that appeared to be causally related to A. Participants were presented with classic launching stimuli (Experiment 1), a variant of launching stimuli in which A could move with uniformly accelerated or decelerated motion (Experiment 2), non-launching stimuli that elicited a causal impression (Experiment 3), and stimuli showing a three-object launching event (Experiment 4). Main results showed that the judged speed of B was systematically biased towards the speed of A, and moreover that the judged speed of B depended on the average speed of A, rather than on the speed of A at the moment of collision as it would be predicted by Newtonian mechanics. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that internal representations of causal events based on property transmission (for instance, impetus) can affect judgments of the low-level properties of causal scenarios.     

Betting on conditionals

A study is reported testing two hypotheses about a close parallel relation between indicative conditionals, if A then B, and conditional bets, I bet you that if A then B. The first is that both the indicative conditional and the conditional bet are related to the conditional probability, P(B|A). The second is that de Finetti's three-valued truth table has psychological reality for both types of conditional—true, false, or void for indicative conditionals and win, lose, or void for conditional bets. The participants were presented with an array of chips in two different colours and two different shapes, and an indicative conditional or a conditional bet about a random chip. They had to make judgements in two conditions: either about the chances of making the indicative conditional true or false or about the chances of winning or losing the conditional bet. The observed distributions of responses in the two conditions were generally related to the conditional probability, supporting the first hypothesis. In addition, a majority of participants in further conditions chose the third option, “void”, when the antecedent of the conditional was false, supporting the second hypothesis.     

An asymptotic likelihood ratio test for a markov chain with bernoullian or contingent input

A Markov chain with transition probabilitiesp _ij () that are functions of a parameter vector is defined. One oft input values is delivered to the chain on each trial. Under the hypothesis H₀ the parameter vector is independent of the input; under the hypothesis H₁ the vector is in general different for each different input. A likelihood ratio test for a single observation on a chain of great length is given for testing H₀ against H₁, given that the distribution of the inputs depends at most on the previous input and the present state of the chain. The test is therefore one of stationarity of the transition probabilities against a specific alternative form of nonstationarity. Application of the approach to a statistical test of lumpability of the states of a chain is indicated. Tests for other related hypotheses are suggested. Application of the test to within-subject effects for individual subjects is considered. Finally, some applications of the results in psychophysical contexts are suggested.Part of the final version of this paper was written at Stanford University during work sessions of a 1967 Summer Conference on Mathematical Models for Perception and Learning. Support was provided by the National Science Foundation through the Committee on Mathematics in the Social Sciences of the Institute for Advanced Study in the Behavioral Sciences.     

Testing for selectivity in the dependence of random variables on external factors

Random variables A and B, whose joint distribution depends on factors (x,y), are selectively influenced by x and y, respectively, if A and B can be represented as functions of, respectively, (x,S_A,C) and (y,S_B,C), where S_A,S_B,C are stochastically independent and do not depend on (x,y). Selective influence implies selective dependence of marginal distributions on the respective factors: thus no parameter of A may depend on y. But parameters characterizing stochastic interdependence of A and B, such as their mixed moments, are generally functions of both x and y. We derive two simple necessary conditions for selective dependence of (A,B) on (x,y), which can be used to conduct a potential infinity of selectiveness tests. One condition is that, for any factor values x,x^′ and y,y^′,

s_xy≤s_xy^′+s_x^′y^′+s_x^′y,     

A fixed interval schedule in which the interval is initiated by a response

The fixed interval schedule described requires the animal to initiate every time interval by making a response on a bar other than the one on which it is reinforced. This response, R_A, demarcates the postreinforcement pause (S^R-R_A interval) from the fixed interval pause (R_A-R_B interval) so that these pauses may be measured separately. Twelve rats and three monkeys, working in two-bar Skinner boxes, were trained and stabilized on this schedule. The resulting performances, presented for individual animals, are analyzed in terms of (1) the relative frequencies with which the animal waits various lengths of time between consecutive responses, (2) the relative frequencies with which various rates of responding appear, (3) the change in response rate throughout the fixed interval, (4) the average length of the postreinforcement pause, (5) the relative frequencies with which the animal waits different lengths of time between the R_A and the first R_B, and (6) the average inter-response time as a function of the rank order in the fixed interval of the inter-response time. The joint interpretation of the several measures taken leads to the following conclusions: 1. The probability of an R_B increases throughout the fixed interval. 2. The increase is discontinuous at the first R_B, at which point the probability increases sharply. 3. The frequency distributions of R_A-R_B pauses exhibit three discrete types of behavior with no intermediate cases. 4. The (main) mode of R_A-R_B interval length usually occurs just below the fixed interval requirement.     

Replacement in Logic

We study a range of issues connected with the idea of replacing one formula by another in a fixed (linguistic) context. The replacement core of a consequence relation ? is the relation holding between a set of formulas {A ₁, ..., A _m , ...} and a formula B when for every context C(·), we have C(A ₁), ..., C(A _m ), ...???C(B). Section 1 looks at some differences between which inferences are lost on passing to the replacement cores of the classical and intuitionistic consequence relations. For example, we find that while the inference from A and B to $A \land B$ , sanctioned by both these initial consequence relations, is retained on passage to the replacement core in the classical case, it is lost in the intuitionistic case. Further discussion of these two (and some other) logics occupies Sections 3 and 4. Section 2 looks at the m?=?1 case, describing A as replaceable by B according to ? when B is a consequence of A by the replacement core of ?, and inquiring as to which choices of ? render this induced replaceability relation symmetric. Section 5 investigates further conceptual refinements— such as a contrast between horizontal and vertical replaceability—suggested by some work of R. B. Angell and R. Harrop (and a comment on the latter by T. J. Smiley) in the 1950s and 1960s. Appendix 1 examines a related aspect of term-for-term replacement in connection with identity in predicate logic. Appendix 2 is a repository for proofs which would otherwise clutter up Section 3.     

The linear regression line as a judgmental aid in visual analysis of serially dependent A-B time-series data

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of different types and magnitudes of serial dependence (first-order moving average and autoregression) and of linear regression lines within experimental phases on the agreement between results of visual and results of statistical data analyses. The stimulus material consisted of computer-simulated A-B-design data graphs. The time series were generated with a constant variance, varying degrees of treatment effects (changes in level), five conditions of serial dependency, and with or without linear regression lines. The material was presented to three groups of student raters (n₁=52, n₂=14, n₃=17) who rated the treatment effect in the graphs on a five-point scale. These ratings were compared with statistical results (time-series analyses). Each group had to interpret 70 graphs, 35 of which had regression lines. Data were analyzed by means of two three-factor and one four-factor ANOVA and by graphic display. The linear regression lines generally enhanced the agreement between the raters' estimations and the statistical results. Serial dependency also increased the agreement between the two analysis methods. However, with strong autoregression processes in the data, the raters tended to overestimate treatment effects relative to time-series analysis.Parts of this study were presented at the World Congress on Behavior Therapy, Washington, DC, December 11, 1983. The authors wish to express their appreciation to Christoph Bonk and Willi Ecker for their extensive collaboration in data analysis and for their assistance in carrying out the study.     

Against Probabilistic Measures of Coherence

It is shown that the probabilistic theories of coherence proposed up to now produce a number of counter-intuitive results. The last section provides some reasons for believing that no probabilistic measure will ever be able to adequately capture coherence. First, there can be no function whose arguments are nothing but tuples of probabilities, and which assigns different values to pairs of propositions {A, B} and {A, C} if A implies both B and C, or their negations, and if P(B)=P(C). But such sets may indeed differ in their degree of coherence. Second, coherence is sensitive to explanatory relations between the propositions in question. Explanation, however, can hardly be captured solely in terms of probability.     

Use of correlational data to examine the effects of risk perceptions on precautionary behavior

Abstract

The idea that perceptions of high personal risk lead people to adopt precautionary behavior (the “motivational hypothesis”) is mainly tested with correlational data. A review of studies from selective journals reveals a high proportion with methodological and conceptual problems that make them invalid as tests of this hypthesis. Three problems arc emphasized: (1) the misinterpretation of correlations from cross-sectional studies as testing the motivational hypothesis when they actually indicate the accuracy of risk perceptions; (2) the failure to control for prior behavior in prospective studies; and (3) the we of prospective studies in situations of little behavior change. Path models are used to help explain these problems. Recommendations for selecting research designs and for calculating the least problematic correlations are given, along with warnings about the many assumptions needed to interpret even these correlations.

Summary

Overall, 27 of the 61 cross-sectional analyses listed in Tables 2 and 3 were conducted using clearly inappropriate variables. The appropriateness of the remaining correlations rest on one or two rather questionable assumptions: (1) that people do not distort their risk perceptions to justify their behavior or intentions and (2) that negative screening results a problem like breast cancer do not affect perceptions of future risk. The correlations preferred for testing the motivational hypothesis are listed in Table 4.

Summary

When the amount of precautionary behavior in a population has become relatively stable and behavior at time t+1 is well-predicted from behavior at time t, no independent variable other than B_t will have much predictive value in a prospective design. To avoid this problem, research should be conducted at a time when a substantial change in behavior is occurring, such as soon after the risk is recognized. If this is not possible, interventions that lead people to change their behavior (e.g., by raising risk perceptions or by lowering barriers to action) are required. In effect, they remove the system from equilibrium and allow one to watch what happens as people seek a new equilibrium. The least satisfactory choice is to use a cross-sectional correlation, such as R _H?B, that represents a summation over previous changes in behavior. The assumptions required to interpret such a correlation have been discussed earlier.     

Rules in relevant logic — II: Formula representation

This paper surveys the various forms of Deduction Theorem for a broad range of relevant logics. The logics range from the basic system B of Routley-Meyer through to the system R of relevant implication, and the forms of Deduction Theorem are characterized by the various formula representations of rules that are either unrestricted or restricted in certain ways. The formula representations cover the iterated form,A ₁ .A ₂ . ... .A _n B, the conjunctive form,A ₁&A ₂ & ...A _n B, the combined conjunctive and iterated form, enthymematic version of these three forms, and the classical implicational form,A ₁&A ₂& ...A _n B. The concept of general enthymeme is introduced and the Deduction Theorem is shown to apply for rules essentially derived using Modus Ponens and Adjunction only, with logics containing either (A B)&(B C) .A C orA B .B C .A C.I acknowledge help from anonymous referees for guidance in preparing Part II, and especially for the suggestion that Theorem 9 could be expanded to fully contraction-less logics.     

Effects of response type on pigeons' sensitivity to variation in reinforcer amount and reinforcer delay

Twelve pigeons, divided into two groups, responded on concurrent nonindependent variable-interval schedules to obtain access to grain by either pecking keys or pressing treadles. Either the amount of grain or the delay to the receipt of grain was varied in separate conditions to determine the sensitivity of relative responding to variation in reinforcer amount (s_A), the sensitivity to variation in reinforcer delay (s_D), and s_A/s_D, a measure related to self-control. There were no significant differences between the two groups in the values of s_A, s_D, and s_A/s_D. These results suggest that the values of s_A, s_D, and s_A/s_D for pigeons may be similar across these two types of responses.     

A Nelsonian Response to ‘the Most Embarrassing of All Twelfth-century Arguments’

Alberic of Paris put forward an argument, ‘the most embarrassing of all twelfth-century arguments’ according to Christopher Martin, which shows that the connexive principles contradict some other logical principles that have become deeply entrenched in our most widely accepted logical theories. Building upon some of Everett Nelson’s ideas, we will show that the steps in Alberic of Paris’ argument that should be rejected are precisely the ones that presuppose the validity of schemas that are nowadays taken as some of the most trivial logical truths: (A∧B) →_AB A and (A∧B) →_AB B, i.e. Simplification.     

An Infinitary Extension of Jankov’s Theorem

It is known that for any subdirectly irreducible finite Heyting algebra A and any Heyting algebra B, A is embeddable into a quotient algebra of B, if and only if Jankov’s formula χ _A for A is refuted in B. In this paper, we present an infinitary extension of the above theorem given by Jankov. More precisely, for any cardinal number κ, we present Jankov’s theorem for homomorphisms preserving infinite meets and joins, a class of subdirectly irreducible complete κ-Heyting algebras and κ-infinitary logic, where a κ-Heyting algebra is a Heyting algebra A with # ≥  κ and κ-infinitary logic is the infinitary logic such that for any set Θ of formulas with # Θ ≥  κ, ∨Θ and ∧Θ are well defined formulas.     

Noticing and responding in a discrimination based on a distinguishing element

In learning a successive go/no-go discrimination between a positive display consisting of the elements A and B, and negative display consisting of A-alone, pigeons first trained to peck A shift to pecking the distinguishing B element. In order to learn whether or not the shift to B is facilitated by B's function as a signal of the reinforcer, apart from the direct reinforcement of B responses, six arrangements of the elements with respect to the food reinforcer were used. Discrete trials were terminated by a single peck or after 4 sec. The A and B elements were dots of different color. The most critical comparison was between two groups, both of which received no reinforcement for a response directed to B. In one case, B signaled the reinforcer: An A response was reinforced when B was present but not when A appeared alone. In the other, B signaled the absence of a reinforcer: An A response was nonreinforced when B was present, while the response to A-alone was reinforced. During training and in extinction many more reponses were made to B when it signaled the reinforcer than when it signaled its absence. It is concluded that in a discrimination between AB positive and A negative the shift from pecking A to pecking B is facilitated by B's role as a signal for the reinforcer even on trials in which the peck is not made to B. Results from certain other groups showed that, unless pecks shifted to B within the positive display, pecks to A continued on the negative, A-alone trials as well as on the positive AB trials.     

Associative learning of discrimination with masked stimuli

Great controversy exists on whether associative learning occurs without awareness. In Experiment 1, 31 participants received discrimination training by repeated presentations of two stimulus sequences (S1_A → S2_A, and S1_B → S2_B), S1 being a masked stimulus. S2 were imperative stimuli for a reaction time (RT) task. After the acquisition phase, all participants were tested with 20 presentations of congruent (S1_A → S2_A and S1_B → S2_B) and incongruent (S1_A → S2_B and S1_B → S2_A) stimulus sequences. The RT in the testing phase was faster in congruent than in incongruent stimulus sequences. These results are considered strong evidence of associative learning without awareness of the contingency between the stimuli. A second experiment was designed with SOA varied between three groups (23, 58, and 117 ms). The results showed that the participants responded more quickly to congruent stimulus sequences and that the SOA did not affect RT. The SOA did not modify the effect of congruence either, although the interaction was near significance.     

Robust tests of equivalence for k independent groups

A common question of interest to researchers in psychology is the equivalence of two or more groups. Failure to reject the null hypothesis of traditional hypothesis tests such as the ANOVA F‐test (i.e., H₀: μ₁ = … = μ_k) does not imply the equivalence of the population means. Researchers interested in determining the equivalence of k independent groups should apply a one‐way test of equivalence (e.g., Wellek, 2003). The goals of this study were to investigate the robustness of the one‐way Wellek test of equivalence to violations of homogeneity of variance assumption, and compare the Type I error rates and power of the Wellek test with a heteroscedastic version which was based on the logic of the one‐way Welch (1951) F‐test. The results indicate that the proposed Wellek–Welch test was insensitive to violations of the homogeneity of variance assumption, whereas the original Wellek test was not appropriate when the population variances were not equal.     

A representation theorem for finite random scale systems

This paper investigates necessary and sufficient conditions on choice probabilities P_a,B (of picking an element a in an offered set B), for the existence of random variables U_a, satisfying the equation P_a,B = $\text{P}${U_a = max {U_b | b ∈ B}} for all nonempty finite subsets B in a fixed set A, and all a ∈ B. A complete solution to this representation problem is obtained in the case where A is finite. The proof of the representation theorem provides an algorithm to construct the random variables U_a, up to some uniqueness properties. Investigation of these uniqueness properties show that an important part of the ordinal structure of the underlying random variables can be recovered.     

Non-Adjunctive Inference and Classical Modalities

The article focuses on representing different forms of non-adjunctive inference as sub-Kripkean systems of classical modal logic, where the inference from □A and □B to □A∧B fails. In particular we prove a completeness result showing that the modal system that Schotch and Jennings derive from a form of non-adjunctive inference in (Schotch and Jennings, 1980) is a classical system strictly stronger than EMN and weaker than K (following the notation for classical modalities presented in Chellas, 1980). The unified semantical characterization in terms of neighborhoods permits comparisons between different forms of non-adjunctive inference. For example, we show that the non-adjunctive logic proposed in (Schotch and Jennings, 1980) is not adequate in general for representing the logic of high probability operators. An alternative interpretation of the forcing relation of Schotch and Jennings is derived from the proposed unified semantics and utilized in order to propose a more fine-grained measure of epistemic coherence than the one presented in (Schotch and Jennings, 1980). Finally we propose a syntactic translation of the purely implicative part of Jaśkowski's system D₂ into a classical system preserving all the theorems (and non-theorems) explicilty mentioned in (Jaśkowski, 1969). The translation method can be used in order to develop epistemic semantics for a larger class of non-adjunctive (discursive) logics than the ones historically investigated by Jaśkowski.