Independence and dependence in human causal reasoning

Causal graphical models (CGMs) are a popular formalism used to model human causal reasoning and learning. The key property of CGMs is the causal Markov condition, which stipulates patterns of independence and dependence among causally related variables. Five experiments found that while adult’s causal inferences exhibited aspects of veridical causal reasoning, they also exhibited a small but tenacious tendency to violate the Markov condition. They also failed to exhibit robust discounting in which the presence of one cause as an explanation of an effect makes the presence of another less likely. Instead, subjects often reasoned “associatively,” that is, assumed that the presence of one variable implied the presence of other, causally related variables, even those that were (according to the Markov condition) conditionally independent. This tendency was unaffected by manipulations (e.g., response deadlines) known to influence fast and intuitive reasoning processes, suggesting that an associative response to a causal reasoning question is sometimes the product of careful and deliberate thinking. That about 60% of the erroneous associative inferences were made by about a quarter of the subjects suggests the presence of substantial individual differences in this tendency. There was also evidence that inferences were influenced by subjects’ assumptions about factors that disable causal relations and their use of a conjunctive reasoning strategy. Theories that strive to provide high fidelity accounts of human causal reasoning will need to relax the independence constraints imposed by CGMs.     

Evidence that logical reasoning depends on conscious processing

Humans, unlike other animals, are equipped with a powerful brain that permits conscious awareness and reflection. A growing trend in psychological science has questioned the benefits of consciousness, however. Testing a hypothesis advanced by [Lieberman, M. D., Gaunt, R., Gilbert, D. T., & Trope, Y. (2002). Reflection and reflexion: A social cognitive neuroscience approach to attributional inference. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 34, 199-249], four studies suggested that the conscious, reflective processing system is vital for logical reasoning. Substantial decrements in logical reasoning were found when a cognitive load manipulation preoccupied conscious processing, while hampering the nonconscious system with consciously suppressed thoughts failed to impair reasoning (Experiment 1). Nonconscious activation (priming) of the idea of logical reasoning increased the activation of logic-relevant concepts, but failed to improve logical reasoning performance (Experiments 2a-2c) unless the logical conclusions were largely intuitive and thus not reliant on logical reasoning (Experiment 3). Meanwhile, stimulating the conscious goal of reasoning well led to improvements in reasoning performance (Experiment 4). These findings offer evidence that logical reasoning is aided by the conscious, reflective processing system.     

The relationship between reward and probability: Evidence that exploration may be intrinsically rewarding

ABSTRACT

The probability of an event occurring and the reward associated with the event can both modulate behaviour. Response times are decreased to stimuli that are either more rewarding or more likely. These two factors can be combined to give an Expected Value (EV) associated with the event (i.e., probability of the event x reward magnitude). In four experiments we investigate the effect of reward and probability on both saccadic and manual responses. When tested separately we find evidence for both a reward and probability effect across response types. When manipulations of reward magnitude and probability of the event were combined, the probability modulations dominated and these data were not well accounted for by the EV. However, a post-hoc model that included an additional intrinsic reward associated with responding provided an excellent account for the data. We argue that reward consists of both an explicit and intrinsic component. In our task, the saccadic and manual responses are linked to the information provided by the targets and the goals of the task, and successful completion of these is in itself rewarding. As a result, targets associated with a higher probability of being presented have a higher intrinsic reward.     

The influence of complexity and reasoning direction on children's causal reasoning

Causal reasoning is the core and basis of cognition about the objective world. This experiment studied the development of causal reasoning in 86 3.5–4.5-year-olds using a ramp apparatus with two input holes and two output holes [Frye, D., Zelazo, P. D., & Palfai, T. (1995). Theory of mind and rule-based reasoning. Cognitive Development 10, 483–527]. Results revealed that: (1) children performed better on cause–effect inferences than on effect–cause inferences; (2) there was an effect of rule complexity such that uni-dimensional causal inferences were easier than bi-dimensional inferences which, in turn, were easier than tri-dimensional causal inferences; and (3) children's causal reasoning develops rapidly between the ages of age of 3.5 and 4 years.     

Image and anti-image covariance matrices from a correlation matrix that may be singular

Following the work of Tucker, Cooper, and Meredith, image and anti-image covariance matrices from a correlation matrix that may be singular are derived.     

Height preferences in humans may not be universal: Evidence from the Datoga people of Tanzania

Many studies in Western societies have shown that women prefer relatively taller men as potential partners, whereas men prefer women who are slightly shorter than themselves. Here, we discuss possible limitations of previous results within the context of the stimuli used (i.e., differences in the perceived body size of female silhouettes). Our results show that, at least in a Polish sample (N = 231), modified stimuli did not essentially change the observed male-taller preferences. In contrast, we report height preferences in a traditional ethnic group, the Datoga people from Tanzania (N = 107), in which men and women preferred extreme sexual dimorphism in stature (SDS) sets (i.e., men and women chose women much taller or much shorter than themselves). Thus, our data do not accord with the suggestion of a universal preference for taller men, but rather suggests that height preferences may be influenced by cultural, environmental, and ecological conditions.     

Children’s causal inferences from indirect evidence: Backwards blocking and Bayesian reasoning in preschoolers

Previous research suggests that children can infer causal relations from patterns of events. However, what appear to be cases of causal inference may simply reduce to children recognizing relevant associations among events, and responding based on those associations. To examine this claim, in Experiments 1 and 2, children were introduced to a “blicket detector,” a machine that lit up and played music when certain objects were placed upon it. Children observed patterns of contingency between objects and the machine’s activation that required them to use indirect evidence to make causal inferences. Critically, associative models either made no predictions, or made incorrect predictions about these inferences. In general, children were able to make these inferences, but some developmental differences between 3- and 4-year-olds were found. We suggest that children’s causal inferences are not based on recognizing associations, but rather that children develop a mechanism for Bayesian structure learning. Experiment 3 explicitly tests a prediction of this account. Children were asked to make an inference about ambiguous data based on the base rate of certain events occurring. Four-year-olds, but not 3-year-olds were able to make this inference.     

Objectifying Sarah Palin: Evidence that objectification causes women to be perceived as less competent and less fully human

Although a great deal of research has examined the effects of objectification on women’s self-perceptions and behavior, empirical research has yet to address how objectifying a woman affects the way she is perceived by others. We hypothesize that focusing on a woman’s appearance will promote reduced perceptions of competence, and also, by virtue of construing the women as an “object”, perceptions of the woman as less human. We found initial experimental evidence for these hypotheses as a function of objectifying two targets - Sarah Palin and Angelina Jolie. In addition, focusing on Palin’s appearance reduced intentions to vote for the McCain-Palin ticket (prior to the 2008 US Presidential election). We discuss these findings in the context of the election and the objectification of women.     

Deductive reasoning and matching-bias inhibition training: Evidence from a debiasing paradigm

Using the matching bias example, the aim of the present studies was to show that adults' reasoning biases are due to faulty executive inhibition programming. In the first study, the subjects were trained on Wason's classical card selection task; half were given training in how to inhibit the perceptual matching bias (experimental group) and half in logic without the inhibition component (control group). On the pre- and post-tests, their performance was assessed on the Evans conditional rule falsification task (with a negation in the antecedent of the rule), a task that also involves matching bias. In addition, subjects were tested for perceptual field dependence/independence using the Embedded Figures Test. The results brought out a specific inhibition training effect, as well as a clear-cut relationship in the experimental group between receptiveness to training and perceptual field independence. In the second study, the training paradigm was the same except that on the pre- and post-tests, the negation was in the consequent of the conditional rule (in this case, the perceptual matching response corresponds to the logical response). The subjects succeeded on the pre-test, and the matching-bias inhibition training had a negative effect on post-test performance. This specific negative priming effect confirms the inhibitory impact of our experimental training and outlines the dissociation of inhibition and logical components.     

Suicide among animals: clues from folklore that may prevent suicidal behaviour in human beings

Knowing the most likely reasons for suicide might increase the chances to identify the early signs of suicide. Folkloric tales on suicide among animals are a possible source of such information, since people probably explain animal suicide using the same reasons they would apply to their kin. Modern naturalistic studies ave found little evidence of self-harming conduct among nonhuman species. Nevertheless, mythological accounts often report suicidal behaviour among animals. Claudius Aelian's De natura animalium, a classic in its genre, written in the 2nd century AD, reports 21 cases of suicide among animals. In Aelian's tales, the severing of social ties emerges as an important motive for suicide, together with incest and rage caused by adultery. Paying attention to the mechanisms leading to suicide described in ancient mythology may help us understand unusual and uncommon motives for suicide and the reasons people feel suicidal.     

Obsessive-compulsive tendencies may be associated with attenuated access to internal states: Evidence from a biofeedback-aided muscle tensing task

The present study was motivated by the hypothesis that inputs from internal states in obsessive-compulsive (OC) individuals are attenuated, which could be one source of the pervasive doubting and checking in OCD. Participants who were high or low in OC tendencies were asked to produce specific levels of muscle tension with and without biofeedback, and their accuracy in producing the required muscle tension levels was assessed. As predicted, high OC participants performed more poorly than low OC participants on this task when biofeedback was not available. When biofeedback was provided, the difference between the groups was eliminated, and withdrawing the monitor again reversed this effect. Finally, when given the opportunity, high OC participants were more likely than low OC participants to request biofeedback. These results suggest that doubt in OCD may be grounded in a real and general deficiency in accessing internal states.     

Syllogistic reasoning tasks and working memory: Evidence from sequential presentation of premises

An experiment is reported concerning the role of working memory components in syllogistic reasoning. In this study, the syllogistic premises were presented sequentially and subjects attempted the syllogisms with and without three secondary tasks (articulatory suppression; spatial suppression and verbal random generation). Taking account of possible trade-offs among the dual tasks, it appeared that syllogisms with sequentially presented premises markedly loaded the central executive and the phonological loop components of working memory and also showed an involvement of the visuo-spatial scratchpad. It appears that the “slave” systems of working memory were more heavily loaded when sequential presentation of premises was used than was found previously with simultaneous premise presentation (Gilhooly, Logie, Wetherick & Wynn, 1993).     

Syllogistic reasoning tasks and working memory: Evidence from sequential presentation of premises

An experiment is reported concerning the role of working memory components in syllogistic reasoning. In this study, the syllogistic premises were presented sequentially and subjects attempted the syllogisms with and without three secondary tasks (articulatory suppression; spatial suppression and verbal random generation). Taking account of possible trade-offs among the dual tasks, it appeared that syllogisms with sequentially presented premises markedly loaded the central executive and the phonological loop components of working memory and also showed an involvement of the visuo-spatial scratchpad. It appears that the “slave” systems of working memory were more heavily loaded when sequential presentation of premises was used than was found previously with simultaneous premise presentation (Gilhooly, Logie, Wetherick & Wynn, 1993).     

Familiarity supports associative recognition memory for face stimuli that can be unitised: Evidence from receiver operating characteristics

According to dual-process models, associative recognition memory mainly relies on recollection without benefiting from familiarity. This study investigates the circumstances under which familiarity may support associative recognition judgements by comparing recognition memory for arbitrarily paired items (i.e., pairs of face stimuli depicting two different persons; interitem associations) with recognition memory for pairs of items that are highly overlapping and can be unitised into a coherent whole (i.e., pairs of physically different but very similar face stimuli depicting the same person; intraitem associations). Estimates of familiarity and recollection were derived from receiver operating characteristics. Consistent with the hypothesis that familiarity is able to support associative recognition memory, but only when the to-be-associated stimuli can be unitised, results from two experiments revealed higher familiarity estimates for intra- compared to interitem associations. By contrast, recollection for recombined pairs was higher for inter- compared to intraitem associations. We propose a hypothetical model on how intraitem associations may benefit from familiarity.     

A 10-day developmental voyage: converging evidence from three studies showing that self-esteem may be elevated and maintained without negative outcomes

Empirical evidence shows that educational experiences in the context of the outdoors lead to elevated self-esteem. Although elevated self-esteem is widely assumed to promote beneficial outcomes, recent evidence suggests that elevated self-esteem may also facilitate a variety of negative outcomes (i.e., increased prejudice, aggression, drug and alcohol abuse). The current research was conducted in order to examine whether one type of outdoor educational experience—a 10-day developmental voyage—could elevate adolescents’ self-esteem without also elevating negative outcomes. The data from three separate studies are reported. Study one revealed that adolescents who undertook the voyage manifested elevated self-esteem and decreased gender prejudice (i.e., less negative ratings of opposite sex outgroup members). Study two replicated these findings and further demonstrated that these effects were maintained 4–5 months following the voyage. In study three, in addition to self-esteem, risky attitudes (i.e., towards drug and alcohol use), physical aggression, verbal aggression, racial and gender bias were also examined. Adolescents again showed elevated self-esteem that was maintained 4–5 months following the voyage. There were no changes in risky attitudes, aggression, or racial and gender bias. Taken together these results indicate that taking part in a 10-day developmental voyage—can lead to an elevation in self-esteem, that is maintained over time and which does not facilitate a variety of negative outcomes.     

Linking metaphor comprehension with analogical reasoning: Evidence from typical development and autism spectrum disorder

We examined the relationship between metaphor comprehension and verbal analogical reasoning in young adults who were either typically developing (TD) or diagnosed with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD). The ASD sample was highly educated and high in verbal ability, and closely matched to a subset of TD participants on age, gender, educational background, and verbal ability. Additional TD participants with a broader range of abilities were also tested. Each participant solved sets of verbal analogies and metaphors in verification formats, allowing measurement of both accuracy and reaction times. Measures of individual differences in vocabulary, verbal working memory, and autistic traits were also obtained. Accuracy for both the verbal analogy and the metaphor task was very similar across the ASD and matched TD groups. However, reaction times on both tasks were longer for the ASD group. Additionally, stronger correlations between verbal analogical reasoning and working memory capacity in the ASD group indicated that processing verbal analogies was more effortful for them. In the case of both groups, accuracy on the metaphor and analogy tasks was correlated. A mediation analysis revealed that after controlling for working memory capacity, the inter-task correlation could be accounted for by the mediating variable of vocabulary knowledge, suggesting that the primary common mechanisms linking the two tasks involve language skills.     

Motivated reasoning and verbal vs. numerical probability assessment: Evidence from an accounting context

A perplexing yet persistent empirical finding is that individuals assess probabilities in words and in numbers nearly equivalently, and theorists have called for future research to search for factors that cause differences. This study uses an accounting context in which individuals are commonly motivated to reach preferred (rather than accurate) conclusions. Within this context, I predict new differences between verbal and numerical probability assessments, as follows: first, individuals will justify an optimistic verbal assessment (e.g., somewhat possible) by retaining the option of re-defining it, in case of negative outcomes, as though the phrase really means something different, and, for that matter, means more things. This re-definition will maintain some connection to the original meaning of the phrase, but de-emphasized relative to the new meaning. Second, based on this behavior, I also predict individuals’ verbal probability assessments to be (1) more biased and yet (2) perceived as more justifiable than their numerical assessments. I find supportive evidence in an experiment designed to test the hypotheses. This study contributes to motivated reasoning and probability assessment theories (1) with new evidence of how individuals can word-smith in multiple attributes of a phrase to justify reaching a preferred conclusion, and (2) with new, reliable differences between verbal and numerical probability assessments. This study has important theoretical and practical implications relevant to organizational contexts in which people assess the likelihoods of uncertainties in words or numbers, and with motivations to reach a preferred conclusion.     

Differences in Fear of Isolation as an explanation of Cultural Differences: Evidence from memory and reasoning

Previous research suggests that members of East Asian cultures show a greater preference for dialectical thinking and sensitivity to context information than do Westerners. We suggest this difference is rooted in a greater chronic Fear of Isolation (FOI) in East Asians than in Westerners. To support this hypothesis, we manipulated FOI in a group of Westerners and assessed their relative preference for dialectical proverbs and sensitivity to context. For cross-cultural validation of our hypothesis, we assessed the relationship between chronic levels of FOI and dialectical reasoning in Koreans. Consistent with our proposal, both experimentally primed FOI (Experiment 1A and 2) and chronic levels of FOI (Experiment 1B) were positively related to relative preference for dialectical proverbs. This effect was independent of participants’ level of negative mood (Experiment 2). A third experiment showed that sensitivity to context was affected by FOI in a manner consistent with previous studies of cultural differences (Experiment 3).     

Matching bias in syllogistic reasoning: Evidence for a dual-process account from response times and confidence ratings

We examined matching bias in syllogistic reasoning by analysing response times, confidence ratings, and individual differences. Roberts’ (2005) “negations paradigm” was used to generate conflict between the surface features of problems and the logical status of conclusions. The experiment replicated matching bias effects in conclusion evaluation (Stupple & Waterhouse, 2009), revealing increased processing times for matching/logic “conflict problems”. Results paralleled chronometric evidence from the belief bias paradigm indicating that logic/belief conflict problems take longer to process than non-conflict problems (Stupple, Ball, Evans, & Kamal-Smith, 2011). Individuals’ response times for conflict problems also showed patterns of association with the degree of overall normative responding. Acceptance rates, response times, metacognitive confidence judgements, and individual differences all converged in supporting dual-process theory. This is noteworthy because dual-process predictions about heuristic/analytic conflict in syllogistic reasoning generalised from the belief bias paradigm to a situation where matching features of conclusions, rather than beliefs, were set in opposition to logic.     

Suppression of valid inferences and knowledge structures: the curious effect of producing alternative antecedents on reasoning with causal conditionals

These studies looked at the difficulty that reasoners have in accepting conditional ("If P then Q") major premises that are not necessarily true empirically, as a basis for deductive reasoning. Preliminary results have shown that when reasoners are asked to produce possible alternate antecedents to the major premise ("If A then Q"), they paradoxically tend to deny the modus ponens (MP) inference ("If P is true, then Q is true"). Three studies further explored these results. The first study gave university students paper-and-pencil tests in which instructions to "suppose that the major premise is true" was followed by a request to determine the next number in a sequence, to retrieve information unrelated to the premises, or to retrieve a possible case of "If A then Q." Relative to a control group, reasoners asked to produce an alternative antecedent showed a significant tendency to deny the MP inference, whereas no such tendency was observed for the two other tasks used. A second study compared performance on a condition in which reasoners were asked to produce an alternative antecedent with that when they were given an explicit alternative. Premises used in this study were such that the latter alternative antecedent was also spontaneously produced by over 70% of reasoners. Results showed that the tendency to refuse the MP premise could not be accounted for by the specific nature of the alternative produced. A third study found that the tendency to refuse the MP inference after producing an alternative antecedent was affected by the number of "disabling conditions" (i.e., conditions that allow "P to be true" and "Q to be false") available for the major premise. These results are interpreted as being consistent with a model that supposes that logical reasoning requires selective inhibition of real-world knowledge.