A closer look at the probabilities of the notorious three prisoners.

The "problem of three prisoners", a counterintuitive teaser, is analyzed. It is representative of a class of probability puzzles where the correct solution depends on explication of underlying assumptions. Spontaneous beliefs concerning the problem and intuitive heuristics are reviewed. The psychological background of these beliefs is explored. Several attempts to find a simple criterion to predict whether and how the probability of the target event will change as a result of obtaining evidence are examined. However, despite the psychological appeal of these attempts, none proves to be valid in general. A necessary and sufficient condition for change in the probability of the target event, following observation of new data, is proposed. That criterion is an extension of the likelihood-ratio principle (which holds in the case of only two complementary alternatives) to any number of alternatives. Some didactic implications concerning the significance of the chance set-up and reliance on analogies are discussed.     

The recovering female alcoholic: A family affair

Supported by a review of relevant literature and a case study, the author argues that family therapy intervention enhances the likelihood of a female alcoholic's positive prognosis. With a basis in systems theory, family therapy views the family as a system and, hence, perceives the alcoholism as a symptom of that family. A profile of the female alcoholic, how her drinking affects her family, and the role that family therapy plays in the recovery process are examined.     

Therapy for couples after an affair: A randomized-controlled trial

To examine the efficacy of a couples treatment approach for promoting recovery from a recently disclosed affair, 89 couples that disclosed an affair by one of the partners in the past 6 months were randomly assigned to treatment (n = 46) or to a control group that waited about 3 months for treatment (n = 43). The couples completed self-report measures (Beck Depression Inventory, Impact of Event Scale-Revised, Partnership Questionnaire) at pre- and post-treatment. Since about half of the couples dropped out for various reasons (e.g., ongoing affair, separation), we used multiple imputations to handle the missing data problem. We analyzed the dyadic data with hierarchical linear modeling in a two-level model. Significant improvements on scores of anxiety corresponded with large effect sizes for both partners. Yet significant improvements on depression scores were only found for the unfaithful partner with moderate effect size. Results suggest that the treatment can improve individual complaints, but not relationship satisfaction in a sufficient amount for both partners. Hence, future research should address how this intervention could encourage couples to maintain therapy, and how they might achieve more and sustained improvement in relationship satisfaction.     

江充巫蛊事件略述

江充,本赵国人。因得罪于赵太子而逃亡入关,得到(汉)武帝重用。后与太子生嫌隙,遂造巫蛊之谋,诬太子以巫术厌帝。太子收斩充,举兵反,事败,太子亦自杀。     

Mourning is a family affair

Mourning is a process of social disengagement. In our modern society, however, the influence of social and religious institutions on the process of mourning has significantly diminished and been partially replaced by mental health clinics. Given the latter's penchant for the intrapsychic view, the perspective on mourning has become reduced to the individual. These trends are clearly reflected in a review of current literature and research on mourning. This paper proposes an interactional, systemic view of mourning through the analysis of two different families. Findings indicate that despite contextual differences between these two families, some basic commonalities render generalizations possible: (a) The selection of the identified patient is not coincidental to the stage of the family life cycle and to the role of the deceased member in the system. (b) Although death affects each individual differently, depending upon his or her relationship with the deceased, it continues to influence all family relations with equal powers. (c) Nonresolution of mourning permits a ghost to become an integral member of the family system. Examination of the treatment process demonstrates that a systemic approach is effective, even when individuals are interviewed alone.     

Codes of medical ethics and the exportation of less-than-standard care

Recently a number of AIDS/AZT research studies, carried out by U.S. universities, have come under intense ethical scrutiny. In these studies, control groups of HIV-positive pregnant women were being given a placebo rather than AZT. Such research protocols would be illegal if practiced in the U.S. I examine a number of lamentable ethical lapses in the studies, and conclude that at least some of these ethical problems are traceable to a troubling contradiction between differing international codes of ethics. In a word, some international codes mandate that all research subjects (including control groups) receive the best standard of care available in the country sponsoring the research, while others suggest that providing only a "local" standard of care is ethically appropriate. I argue that these two ethical mandates cannot both be satisfied, and that host country populations will remain subject to exploitation unless this contradiction is resolved.     

Worms are a family affair!

It is extremely rare for the journal to publish any of the many press releases received in the journal office. However, given the new meaning attached to family therapy by the manufacturers of Pripsen we felt it was important that our readership be kept up-to-date!     

Selective interest and psychological practice: A new interpretation of the Burt affair

Anomalies in Burt's twin data have precipitated a prolonged and inconclusive controversy between those who accuse him of fabrication and those who defend his integrity. Here it is suggested that the argument arose in part because differing personal, and especially political, interests predisposed psychologists to diverse interpretations of the evidence. ‘Selective interest’ (James, 1890) leads to a concentration of attention on partial data. The participants in the controversy readily detected this fault in their opponents, but rarely in themselves. It is then suggested that this same factor accounts for the deficiencies in Burt's kinship data. His research was especially vulnerable to ‘selective interest’, and the numerical anomalies in his reports are consistent with this interpretation. It is questioned whether scientific techniques can ever wholly replace personal judgment, with its potential for selective bias.