“Of course I will ...”: The combined effect of certainty and level of expectancies on persistence and performance

The importance of performance expectancies for the prediction of regulation of behavior and actual performance has long been established. Building on theories from the field of social cognition, we suggest that the level of performance expectancies, as well as the certainty of the expectancy, have a joint influence on an individual’s beliefs and behavior. In two studies (one cross sectional using a sample of secondary school students and one longitudinal using a sample of university students) we found that expectancies more strongly predicted persistence, and subsequent performance, the more certain the expectancy was. This pattern was found even if prior performance was controlled, as in Study 2. The data give an indication that it may be useful to include certainty as an additional variable in expectancy models.     

The relation between achievement goal and expectancy-value theories in predicting achievement-related outcomes: A test of four theoretical conceptions

Although achievement goal and expectancy-value theories are both dominant in the achievement motivation literature, the relation between goals and expectancy-value variables in predicting achievement-related behaviors remains unclear. The present study evaluated the empirical validity of four contrasting theoretical conceptions which posit that (1) goals and expectancy-value variables are independent predictors of achievement-related outcomes (2) goals predict expectancy-values, (3) goals mediate the relation between expectancies and task-values, and (4) goals partially mediate the relation between expectancy-values and achievement outcomes, in predicting course performance, career intentions and academic aspirations. Path models evaluating these conceptions were tested separately in mathematics and language arts domains among 697 6th and 8th grade students. Results supported the fourth theoretical approach suggesting that expectancy-value variables predict achievement-related outcomes both directly and indirectly through achievement goals. These findings provide insight about the relation between expectancy-value and achievement goal theories and highlight their complementary role in predicting achievement behaviors.     

Predicting Adolescent Drinking From Alcohol Expectancy Values: A Comparison of Additive,Interactive, and Nonlinear Models1

Additive, interactive, and nonlinear models of alcohol expectancy values were compared using survey data from 1,758 high school students. Expectancies and values independently predicted drinking in the additive model. Expectancies were more important as predictors than were values, and negative expectancies were more important than positive expectancies. Significant expectancy-value interactions also were found. Drinking was highest when positive consequences were believed to be likely and desirable and was lowest when negative consequences were believed to be likely and undesirable. Significant nonlinearities indicated that beliefs about negative consequences had greater effects at lower levels of likelihood and evaluation whereas beliefs about positive consequences had greater effects at higher levels of likelihood and evaluation. However, the interactive and nonlinear effects were small.     

Testing the Assumptions of Attribution Theory in India

Abstract

Although numerous studies have investigated Weiner's (Weiner et al., 1971) attribution theory, little of this work has been conducted outside the West. Thus, the cultural boundaries of the theory have not been well established. In the present research, the basic tenets of the theory were tested in a conservative Asian Indian setting by examining the patterns of causal attributions, task evaluations, affective responses, and predictions for future performance among Asian Indian students when task outcomes were similar or discrepant with initial expectancies. Patterns of sex differences were also examined. The results showed that high expectancy individuals attributed their success more than their failure to ability and were less outcome contingent in their affective and cognitive reactions to their performance than lower expectancy groups. Indian women held slightly lower generalized expectancies than Indian men and attributed outcomes less to ability if initial performance expectancies were not high. The general pattern of results showed that Weiner's theoretical model was quite generalizable to the non-Western Asian setting.     

Predicting problem behaviors with multiple expectancies: expanding expectancy-value theory

Expectancy-value theory emphasizes the importance of outcome expectancies for behavioral decisions, but most tests of the theory focus on a single behavior and a single expectancy. However, the matching law suggests that individuals consider expected outcomes for both the target behavior and alternative behaviors when making decisions. In this study, we expanded expectancy-value theory to evaluate the contributions of two competing expectancies to adolescent behavior problems. One hundred twenty-one high school students completed measures of behavior problems, expectancies for both acting out and academic effort, and perceived academic competence. Students' self-reported behavior problems covaried mostly with perceived competence and academic expectancies and only nominally with problem behavior expectancies. We suggest that behavior problems may result from students perceiving a lack of valued or feasible alternative behaviors, such as studying. We discuss implications for interventions and suggest that future research continue to investigate the contribution of alternative expectancies to behavioral decisions.     

Synergistic Effects of Expectancy and Value on Homework Engagement: The Case for a Within-Person Perspective

Historically, expectancy–value models of motivation assumed a synergistic relation between expectancy and value: motivation is high only when both expectancy and value are high. Motivational processes were studied from a within-person perspective, with expectancies and values being assessed or experimentally manipulated across multiple domains and the focus being placed on intraindividual differences. In contrast, contemporary expectancy–value models in educational psychology concentrate almost exclusively on linear effects of expectancy and value on motivational outcomes, with a focus on between-person differences. Recent advances in latent variable methodology allow both issues to be addressed in observational studies. Using the expectancy–value model of homework motivation as a theoretical framework, this study estimated multilevel structural equation models with latent interactions in a sample of 511 secondary school students and found synergistic effects between domain-specific homework expectancy and homework value in predicting homework engagement in 6 subjects. This approach not only brings the “×” back into expectancy–value theory but also reestablishes the within-person perspective as the appropriate level of analysis for latent expectancy–value models.     

Using a modified Stroop task to implicitly discern the cognitive organization of alcohol expectancies

Alcohol expectancies have been statistically modeled as memory networks that influence future consumption. To test the organization of expectancies suggested by these models, a modified Stroop color-naming task incorporated expectancy words associated in past research with heavy and light drinking. Light and heavy drinkers ink-named expectancy targets after being cued with an alcohol beverage word or a nonalcohol beverage word. Consistent with predictions derived from statistical models, heavy drinkers displayed significant interference when arousing expectancy words had been primed by an alcohol beverage word, whereas light drinkers displayed significant interference when sedating expectancy targets had been so primed. These results reinforce the idea that mediation o falcohol use by expectancies may be implicit as well as explicit.     

Performance Self-Predictions: The Impact of Expectancy Strength and Incentives1

Performance self-predictions represent an individual's anticipated level performance on an upcoming task. This study focused on the accuracy of these predictions, as well as subjective reactions to making them under varying expectancy and incentive conditions. Results indicate that performance-contingent incentives had a positive effect on task performance, but a negative effect on preferences for making performance predictions. Expectancy strength also influenced these predictions, their subjective interpretations, and task performance. Additional results address the role of other task-relevant judgments (e.g., self-assessed ability and intended effort) when predicting one's performance on a task. Implications of these findings for work motivation and judgment accuracy are discussed.     

The effect of performer gender,performer skill level,and opponent gender on self-confidence in a competitive situation

An equal number of male and female subjects (N=48), ranging in age from 17 to 26, were randomly assigned to compete in three competitive video games against a male or female opponent. All subjects were given bogus feedback that they had lost two out of three video games by a standard margin. Initial performance expectancies, as well as postcompetition expectancies, of all subjects were recorded. Initial performance expectancy scores recorded prior to competition were analyzed in a 2 (subject gender)×2 (opponent gender) analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) design with initial skill level on a preliminary game as the covariate. No significant gender differences in initial expectancy scores were found. A 2 (subject gender)×2 (opponent gender) ANCOVA design was utilized to analyze the postcompetition expectancy scores with initial performance expectancy as the covariate. The analysis revealed no significant differences. These findings did not support Corbin's (1981) data suggesting that females express significantly less self-confidence than males for future performance after competing against and losing to a superior opponent on a video task. Initial performance expectancies in the present study were significantly correlated (p.05) to skill level, indicating that performance expectancies may be more related to skill level than to gender. Thus, a realistic perception about one's initial skill level on a particular task may be the most salient determinant of performance expectancies.     

Resolving the theory of planned behaviour's ‘expectancy-value muddle’ using dimensional salience

The theory of planned behaviour is one of the most widely used models of decision-making in the health literature. Unfortunately, the primary method for assessing the theory's belief-based expectancy-value models results in statistically uninterpretable findings, giving rise to what has become known as the ‘expectancy-value muddle’. Moreover, existing methods for resolving this muddle are associated with various conceptual or practical limitations. This study addresses these issues by identifying and evaluating a parsimonious method for resolving the expectancy-value muddle. Three hundred and nine Australian residents aged 18–24 years rated the expectancy and value of 18 beliefs about posthumous organ donation. Participants also nominated their five most salient beliefs using a dimensional salience approach. Salient beliefs were perceived as being more likely to eventuate than non-salient beliefs, indicating that salient beliefs could be used to signify the expectancy component. The expectancy-value term was therefore represented by summing the value ratings of salient beliefs, an approach that predicted attitude (adjusted R ²?=?0.21) and intention (adjusted R ²?=?0.21). These findings suggest that the dimensional salience approach is a useful method for overcoming the expectancy-value muddle in applied research settings.     

How need for cognition affects the formation of performance expectancies at school

Individuals with low Need for Cognition (NFC) have been found to process information using a peripheral route compared to individuals higher in NFC. These differences affect the formation of performance expectancies. Based on previous work demonstrating that the formation of performance expectancies can be understood as an information processing event and that inferring expectancies from the specific self-concept requires cognitive motivation, we tested whether students with higher NFC had performance expectancies in a specific subject that more strongly depended on specific self-concept. The participants (554 tenth grade students) reported their NFC, performance expectancies, general self-concept, and specific self-concepts in mathematics and English. Actual performance was assessed for mathematics. Multiple linear regressions supported the interaction-hypothesis concerning performance expectancies in mathematics and English. In addition, the higher the students’ NFC, the stronger actual performance in mathematics related to the specific self-concept. The results suggested that performance expectancies mediated the effect of self-concept on performance. NFC is an important variable influencing motivational processes, and should be included in models describing the relation between self-concepts and individuals beliefs or behaviors.     

青少年饮酒期望与饮酒行为的关系:追踪研究的证据

通过对1000余名青少年为期一年的追踪调查,探讨了青少年饮酒期望与饮酒行为之间的关系,同时考察了饮酒期望的发展和性别差异。研究结果表明:(1)一年来青少年的饮酒行为、饮酒消极期望和饮酒积极期望都显著增加;女生的饮酒行为和饮酒积极期望的增加都显著高于男生。(2)第二次测查时,青少年的饮酒行为、饮酒积极期望和饮酒消极期望高于一年前原同年级的学生。(3)饮酒积极期望、消极期望和饮酒行为之间的基本关系一年来没有发生变化:消极期望可能降低饮酒行为,积极期望可能增加饮酒行为,消极期望对积极期望与饮酒行为的关系具有显著的调节作用。但是消极期望对饮酒行为的作用降低,积极期望的作用升高。     

Expectancy models of alcohol use

The primary goal of the present article is to compare expectancy models with competing attitude models of alcohol use. First, several methodological issues in expectancy research were addressed, to more adequately compare the theoretical models. Study 1 examined the effect of possible self-report biases on associations among expectancy constructs and alcohol use. In Studies 2 and 3, the basic distinction between general factors of positive and negative alcohol expectancies was investigated in both cross-sectional and prospective models. Alternative predictions that were based on competing expectancy and attitude theories were evaluated primarily in Study 3. Results from these studies supported the validity of the expectancy constructs and the proposed distinctions among expectancy and attitude constructs-in terms of strong discriminant validity, absence of self-report bias, and differential prediction of alcohol use. Furthermore, the findings favored certain expectancy models over alternative attitude models of alcohol use, reaffirming the usefulness of the expectancy framework.     

Constructing other persons: A limit on the effect

Numerous studies have documented the effect that expectancies have on perceivers' perceptions of targets, but in few of these studies have the targets been aware of the perceivers' expectancies. In the present study, some perceivers were led to believe that their future interaction partners had a cold personality while others held no such expectancy. Orthogonal to this manipulation, some targets were told that their partners expected them to be cold while others received no such information. Results indicate that expectancy confirmation occurs only when perceivers with expectancies interact with naive targets. Targets who were told that the perceiver held an expectancy about them were able to overcome this expectancy. The relevance of these findings to the process of expectancy confirmation is discussed, and some predictions are made about the conditions under which expectancy confirmation will and will not occur.     

Expectancy,value, and attitudinal semantics

A novel single-attribute test between competing expectancy-value models of attitude was devised using subjects' ratings of clusters of statements located at a range of points within a three-dimensional semantic space with expectancy, value and attitude as the co-ordinates. The data provided strongest support for a model using bipolar scoring for evaluation and unipolar scoring for expectancy.     

The development of beliefs about spelling and their relationship to spelling performance

This study examined relations among spelling performance and students' beliefs about spelling, including self-efficacy for spelling ability, outcome expectancy for spelling, and attributions for good spelling across grades 4, 7, and 10. Spelling self-efficacy remained relatively constant across grades. Spelling outcome expectancies for adult life and school declined across grades, as did effort and ability attributions for spelling success, with a disproportional decrease in ability attributions between grades 4 and 7. Self-efficacy was the strongest predictor of spelling performance at all grade levels; attribution for ability entered into the regression for grade 4 students, while outcome expectancies for school and writing were more important in grades 7 and 10. Cluster analyses on the grade 10 sample showed that students with high efficacy as spellers and high outcome expectancy of spelling for writing were the best spellers, with the highest performance reserved for those who attributed good spelling more to effort than ability. The impact of spelling instruction on developing beliefs is discussed.     

The effects of affective states on the formation of performance expectancies

Positive vs. negative affective states are associated with the use of broad vs. specific knowledge structures. These findings were applied to the field of performance expectancies. It was predicted that individuals with positive mood should infer their performance expectancies concerning a specific task from their general self-concept, whereas given negative mood, performance expectancies should be inferred from the relevant specific self-concept. In an experiment, positive vs. negative mood was induced in 158 university students. General and specific self-concepts were assessed. Furthermore, we assessed task-specific performance expectancies and task performance. Specific self-concept was predictive of expectancies given negative mood, whereas with positive mood, expectancies could only be predicted on the basis of the general self-concept. Furthermore, mean expectancies were higher and less accurate with positive mood. The results are in line with the theoretical predictions. They underline that affective states also influence the formation of motivational variables like performance expectancies.     

Resolving the theory of planned behaviour's 'expectancy-value muddle' using dimensional salience

The theory of planned behaviour is one of the most widely used models of decision-making in the health literature. Unfortunately, the primary method for assessing the theory's belief-based expectancy-value models results in statistically uninterpretable findings, giving rise to what has become known as the 'expectancy-value muddle'. Moreover, existing methods for resolving this muddle are associated with various conceptual or practical limitations. This study addresses these issues by identifying and evaluating a parsimonious method for resolving the expectancy-value muddle. Three hundred and nine Australian residents aged 18-24 years rated the expectancy and value of 18 beliefs about posthumous organ donation. Participants also nominated their five most salient beliefs using a dimensional salience approach. Salient beliefs were perceived as being more likely to eventuate than non-salient beliefs, indicating that salient beliefs could be used to signify the expectancy component. The expectancy-value term was therefore represented by summing the value ratings of salient beliefs, an approach that predicted attitude (adjusted R2?=?0.21) and intention (adjusted R2?=?0.21). These findings suggest that the dimensional salience approach is a useful method for overcoming the expectancy-value muddle in applied research settings.     

Across-persons versus within-persons tests of expectancy-value models: A methodological note

It has been asserted that (I) tests of expectancy-value models require within-persons analyses and that (2) within-persons analyses yield better predictions of behavioral tendencies than do across-persons analyses. The first assertion is correct; the second is not. Justification for within-persons tests of expectancy-value models must be made on theoretical rather than empirical grounds.     

Understanding perfectionism and depression in an adult clinical population: Is outcome expectancy relevant to psychological functioning?

Perfectionism is a personality trait defined by high standards of performance, which has been identified as a risk factor for major depressive disorder (MDD). The present study examined if outcome expectancy involved in perfectionism differs for individuals with depression compared to non-depressed controls, and how outcome expectancy relates to depression symptoms. This study included 49 depressed and 42 non-depressed participants. Perfectionism and depression severity were measured via self-report instruments. This study is the first to provide preliminary evidence that outcome expectancies involved in perfectionism may be related to psychological functioning in depression. Individuals with depression demonstrated higher negative and lower positive outcome expectancies associated with perfectionism compared to non-depressed participants. Perfectionism outcome expectancies are also related to depression severity and symptoms. Future research should prospectively investigate relationships of outcome expectancy involved in perfectionism in individuals at risk for depression.