承诺续扩现象及其心理机制

承诺续扩是指决策者在面对失败的结果时,仍然决定向先前的行动持续投入资源的现象。目前,自我申辩理论、前景理论和决策困境理论是承诺续扩解释机制中较有影响的三种理论。以往的相关实证研究所发现的影响承诺续扩的因素可以归为计划因素、心理因素、个体差异因素以及情境因素等四类。今后的研究有必要关注各解释机制的整合、相关变量之间关系体系的构建和因果路径的确定以及承诺续扩对决策者心理与行为可能造成的影响等问题     

The Effect of Goal Difficulty on Escalation of Commitment

Escalation of commitment to a failing course of action is a problem in behavioral decision making that occurs across a wide range of social contexts. In this research, we show that examining escalation of commitment from a goal setting theory perspective provides fresh insights into how goal difficulty influences escalation of commitment. Specifically, through a series of two experiments, we found a curvilinear relationship between goal difficulty and post‐feedback goal commitment, which was mediated by valence and expectancy associated with goal attainment. In turn, it is commitment to goals that leads individuals to continue a previous course of action despite negative feedback. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Comparison of Allocations by Individuals and Interacting Groups in an Escalation of Commitment Situation1

In this study, individuals and interacting 3‐person groups were asked to make a series of allocation decisions using a modified version of the A&S decision case (Staw, 1976). Based on the choice‐shift effect, it was hypothesized that groups would allocate more to a failing course of action than would individuals, and that these differences would emerge only after repeated sequential decisions. Both hypotheses were supported. These findings suggest that processes unique to groups account for the greater allocations of groups, relative to individuals in escalation situations. The implications of these findings in applied settings are discussed.     

The Effects of Goal Distance and Value in Escalation of Commitment

Escalation of commitment describes individuals’ tendencies to spend resources beyond the point of rationality in order to persist in a chosen course of action, and most believe that sunk cost is the primary cause. However, it has been noted that sunk costs are confounded with progress made toward a goal, and that sunk costs do not affect individuals’ tendencies to escalate as all economic information is ignored in pursuit of the goal. Thus, the apparent escalation tendency may be a consequence of goal proximity instead of sunk costs. In Experiment 1, I show that individuals’ tendencies to escalate reflect the goal-gradient effect after controlling for the sunk costs. Experiment 2 provides a psychological process model to explain why goal-gradient influences individuals’ tendencies to escalate commitment by demonstrating that as individuals progress toward their goal, they exaggerate the value difference between the object that they are pursuing and the object that they are not pursuing. This perceived value difference, in turn, influences individuals’ tendencies to commit escalation of commitment. Results suggest a new interpretation for escalation of commitment and new approaches to guiding people to avoid it.     

Escalation of Commitment and the Framing Effect: An Empirical Investigation

Research and theory are reviewed which consider two decision biases: escalation of commitment and decision framing. Some authors (Bazerman, 1986; Whyte, 1986) have suggested that escalation of commitment may be explained by the decision framing used in the research paradigms. A study was conducted which simultaneously manipulated both responsibility for a prior decision and decision frame. Results show a main effect on resource allocation for responsibility and no effect for decision frame. A follow-up study found that amount of information provided systematically affected the framing bias, and that when responsibility was added to a large amount of contextual information, the framing effect became nonsignificant. These results suggest a need to further examine the boundary conditions of framing.     

Escalation of Commitment: The Effect of Number and Attractiveness of Available Investment Alternatives

Purpose  

The purpose of this study was to examine the hypothesis that decision difficulty increases the likelihood of commitment to a failing project (escalation). The hypothesis was based on findings regarding status quo bias. Three aspects of decision difficulty were tested: equivalence of options, option set size and attractiveness structure of the alternatives.     

The Effects of Feedback Equivocality on Escalation of Commitment: An Empirical Investigation of Decision Dilemma Theory1

The effects of feedback equivocality on escalation of commitment were examined in a laboratory study. Subjects had multiple opportunities to allocate money to market a software product. During the initial phase, subjects received feedback that was of either low or high equivocality. Half of the subjects in each equivocality level were given a standard by which to judge the feedback. In the second phase, all subjects received negative feedback. Consistent with Bowen's (1987) decision dilemma theory, subjects who received low equivocality feedback did not escalate allocations, and subjects who received high equivocal feedback escalated allocations. The presence of a standard or goal attenuated escalation. These results are consonant with a dynamic, temporally based account of escalation and are discussed in a synthesis of the literatures in behavior analysis, economics, forecasting, and psychology.     

The Relationship between Workplace Status and Workplace Religious Expression

A growing body of literature explores religious expression in workplaces, but comparatively little research examines how religious expression might be shaped by inequality in workplace status. We hypothesize that perceived work autonomy and socioeconomic status (SES) both function as mediating links between organizational status and religious expression. Drawing on a sample of employed adults from a nationally-representative survey in the United States (n = 8611), we examine three modes of religious expression at work: displaying faith, feeling comfortable talking about faith, and expressing views when observing unfair work practices that conflict with faith. Results revealed that workers at the bottom of their organizations express their religiosity less than those at the top. Religious expression in the workplace is thus not simply a reflection of individual religiosity or religious identity, but also workplace power. Although perceived work autonomy mediated the relationship, SES buffered the relationship. Findings have important implications for workplace policy.     

内隐人格观对承诺升级的影响——成功期望的中介效应

研究旨在探讨内隐人格观对承诺升级的影响以及期望在其中的中介作用。研究1比较了个体的实体启动、渐变启动和无启动对照三种条件下,个体的承诺升级倾向是否受不同启动类型的影响。结果发现,被启动渐变论的被试与无启动和实体启动的被试相比,前者表现出更多的承诺升级倾向。研究2使用情景模拟任务,分析了个体不同内隐人格观与承诺升级的关系,并在此基础上探讨了成功期望的中介作用。结果发现:(1)个体越倾向渐变论则更多的产生承诺升级行为;(2)成功期望在内隐人格观与承诺升级的关系中起完全中介作用。     

The Role of Theory in Testing Hypothesized Interactions: An Example from the Research on Escalation of Commitment1

Theory should guide the choice of analytic strategy in testing research hypotheses. This thesis is developed primarily with respect to the testing of interaction hypotheses, with some discussion of the implications for testing hypotheses regarding main effects. Previously published data on the escalation bias (Schoorman, 1988) are re-analyzed using planned contrasts, two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA), and regression analyses using dummy and effect coded variables, with both simultaneous and hierarchical entry. Each analysis yields different results, which demonstrates that different analytic strategies can lead to conflicting interpretations regarding the theory of interest. The reasons for these differences and the implications of these findings for the choice of analytic strategies are discussed.     

The Effects of Goal Publicity and Self‐Monitoring on Escalation of Goal Commitment

The current research examines whether the public or private nature of consumer goals affects goal‐commitment escalation following initial goal failure. In particular, the authors explore the moderating role of self‐monitoring. Across three experiments, the authors demonstrate that high self‐monitors are more likely to persist following a public failure than a private failure. However, the public versus private nature of the goal failure does not affect low self‐monitors’ persistence. The authors also explore two boundary conditions for this effect by manipulating the timing of feedback and by testing the role of the perceived value of the incentive for achieving the goal. The article concludes with a discussion of theoretical and managerial insights from this work.     

The Influence of Compensation Method and Disclosure Level on Information Search Strategy and Escalation of Commitment

In this study we examined the extent to which compensation method and public disclosure influenced information search strategy and escalation of commitment. A laboratory experiment involving 182 student subjects employed a 3 (compensation: no-pay, salary, and contingent) by 2 (disclosure level: public and private) fully randomized, crossed design. Results show that in light of negative feedback concerning performance results of an investment portfolio, subjects whose initial allocation decisions were announced publicly reduced their search for prospective information, increased the search for retrospective information, and exhibited greater escalation of commitment than subjects who did not announce their initial investment strategy. The search for retrospective information and escalation of commitment was monotonically higher across the no-pay, salary, and contingent pay conditions respectively, while the search for prospective information decreased correspondingly. This study provides evidence that escalation of commitment is positively related to the search for retrospective information and negatively related to the search for prospective information. The results obtained from this experiment complement and extend prior work in the areas of accountability, cognitive dissonance and escalation of commitment. © 1997 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Workplace Bullying and Intention to Leave Among Schoolteachers in China: The Mediating Effect of Affective Commitment1

Workplace bullying includes behaviors such as harassing, offending, or socially excluding the target. This study examines whether the relationship between workplace bullying and intention to leave is mediated by affective commitment. Based on data from 142 schoolteachers in China, a partial least squares analysis revealed that affective commitment partially mediates the effect of bullying on intention to leave. Furthermore, the direct effect of bullying on intention to leave is stronger than the indirect effect. Theoretical and practical implications include that awareness needs to be raised about what constitutes bullying behavior and that more emphasis needs to be placed on preventing bullying in the workplace.     

When Thinking Rationally Increases Biases: The Role of Rational Thinking Style in Escalation of Commitment

This paper reports three studies examining the relationship between the rational thinking style (RTS, i.e. individual differences in relying on a conscious, analytical, and relatively affect‐free information processing system) and decision quality in an escalation situation. In contrast to conventional wisdom that rational thinking increases decision quality, but consistent with the predictions derived from the cognitive dissonance theory, results of Studies 1 and 2 revealed that high scorers in Pacini and Epstein's (1999 ) rationality inventory were more likely to have escalation bias than were low scorers. The results further showed that only the ability component of rationality, not the engagement component, was positively correlated with escalating commitment. Similar patterns of results were obtained for situations when participants were personally responsible for prior decisions (Study 1) and when they were not (Study 2). Results of Study 3 showed that the underlying process responsible for the effect of RTS on the escalating tendency is that RTS increases beliefs in prior decisions, which in turn increases escalation. Implications for our understanding of escalation of commitment, rationality theory, and managerial practices are discussed. Cet article rend compte de 3 études examinant la relation entre le style de pensée rationnelle (RTS i.e. les différences individuelles reposent sur un système de traitement de l’information consciente, analytique et relativement libre d’affects) et la qualité de la décision dans une situation d’escalade d’engagement. Contrairement à l’opinion communément admise pour laquelle la pensée rationnelle accroît la qualité de la décision, mais consistante avec les prédictions découlant de la théorie de la dissonance cognitive, les résultats des études 1 et 2 indiquent que des personnes obtenant un score élevéà l’Inventaire Rationnel‐Expérientiel de Pacini et Esptein (1999) sont plus enclines à tomber dans le piège de l’escalade d’engagement que celles dont le score est bas. D’autres résultats montrent que la capacitéà la rationalité, non celle à l’engagement, est positivement corrélée avec l’escalade d’engagement. Des résultats semblables sont obtenus lors de situations où les participants sont personnellement responsables de leurs décisions antérieures (Etude 1) ou non (Etude 2). Les résultats de l’étude 3 montrent que le processus responsable de l’effet du RTS sur la tendance à s’engager est le suivant: il accroît les croyances dans les décisions antérieures qui augmentent à leur tour l’engagement. Ces résultats nous permettent de mieux comprendre l’escalade d’engagement, la théorie rationnelle et les pratiques managériales.     

Escalation and De-escalation of Commitment in Response to Sunk Costs: The Role of Budgeting in Mental Accounting

Research has traditionally assumed that people increase investment (or "escalate commitment") in response to previous investments (sunk costs). This paper presents several demonstrations which show that people will incorrectly de-escalate investment in response to sunk costs. I propose that people set mental budgets to control their resource expenditures: they set a budget for a class of expenses and track their investments against their budget. A lab study with real monetary incentives shows support for de-escalation and supports a specific rule for how people set budgets - based on the breakeven of total costs and total benefits. The budgeting process suggests that people are only likely to escalate commitment when they fail to set a budget or when expenses are difficult to track. The later part of the paper organizes the previous literature on escalation around these processes and provides additional experiments to illustrate each point. For example, I argue that previous demonstrations that have shown errors of escalation exclusively involve "incidental" investments that are difficult to track. A study in the current paper shows that people are more willing to invest time than money to salvage a monetary sunk cost and more willing to invest money than time to salvage a sunk cost of time, even when the time and money investments are of equal value. The paper concludes by discussing the rationality of escalation and de-escalation.     

Escalation of Commitment and Nonorthogonal Analysis of Variance Revisited: A Comment on Schoorman, Bobko, and Rentsch

Schoorman, Bobko, and Rentsch (1991) reanalyzed previously published data (Schoorman, 1988) and claimed that, in contrast to the original analysis, the data supported Schoorman's negative escalation hypothesis. We contend that this reanalysis was conceptually and technically flawed, and that Schoorman's original analysis yielded the correct (negative) conclusion. Schoorman et al. also discussed a variety of alternatives for conducting a factorial analysis of variance with unequal cell sizes, demonstrating that different procedures can lead to different statistical conclusions. However, their discussion is misleading and overlooks recent literature that has removed much of the mystery from the unequal- n problem. We offer a brief review of the fundamental problems, and their solutions, in analysis of variance with unequal ns .     

Investigating Emotions Philosophically1

Among today's philosophers of emotion there are, on the one hand, those that do “conceptual analysis” and, on the other hand, those that oppose such an approach as empirically naïve, as sanctifying our ordinary use of words and as based on an analytic/synthetic distinction and an outmoded theory of meaning. This paper is an attempt to show why this critique is misplaced and to clarify how conceptual investigations of emotions relate to empirical investigations.     

Alcohol Expectancies and Workplace Drinking1

The relationship between alcohol expectancies and work-related drinking was investigated in a survey of 984 employees from a large unionized manufacturing plant. Respondents were asked about their drinking at work, just prior to work, and in other contexts. Alcohol expectancies were measured by asking how likely or unlikely it was that work-related drinking would lead to 13 personal consequences. The items for this scale were derived from ethnographic interviews and observations in the plant and from a review of the workplace literature. Exploratory factor analysis indicated that the expectancy items formed two scales representing positive and negative consequences. These scales predicted work-related drinking in a simultaneous equations path analysis, even when general drinking practices and background variables were controlled. The analysis also indicated that workers who were younger, Caucasian, hourly, on evening or night shifts, and frequent or heavy drinkers outside of work may be at risk for work-related drinking because of their alcohol expectancies.     

Self-Serving Evaluations of Conflict Behavior and Escalation of the Dispute1

There is good evidence that people generally tend to evaluate behaviors, contributions, and outcomes in terms favorable to the self. The present series of studies expands this finding by showing that professional negotiators (Study 1), governmental decision makers (Study 2), and organizational consultants (Study 3) make self-serving evaluations of conflict behavior: They view their own conflict behaviors as more constructive and as less destructive than those of their opponents. In addition, results revealed that self-serving evaluation of conflict behavior is associated with increased frustration, with reduced problem solving, and with enhanced likelihood of future conflict. It is argued that these findings expand the conflict literature in that they provide better insight into the motivational-cognitive antecedents and consequences of conflict escalation.     

Equivocality and Escalation: A Replication and Preliminary Examination of Frustration1

An equivocality theory account of escalation of commitment was investigated using a computer simulated marketing scenario in a replication and extension of Hantula and DeNicolis Bragger (1999). Participants acted as marketing executives and invested money to promote sales of a new sneaker, and received high or low equivocality feedback from their investments for one phase and then received failure feedback in a second phase. Participants were videotaped throughout the experiment. Replicating previous research, participants receiving highly equivocal feedback invested a greater relative amount of money during failure than did those who received feedback low in equivocality. Furthermore, analyses of the videotapes for behaviors indicative of frustration showed that participants in both feedback groups displayed a greater degree of frustration while receiving failure feedback than during the first phase of the study. These data replicate and extend previous equivocality findings, but do not resolve the role of frustration in escalation unambiguously.