Beliefs about Overconfidence,Including Its Cross-National Variation

A commonly used judgment research task requires the subject to choose among alternative answers to a general knowledge question and then state a probability that the selected response is correct. People often exhibit overconfidence in this task. Such overconfidence is stronger in most Asian countries than in Western countries. This article addresses lay expectations and accounts for this difference, as well as for such overconfidence more generally. An empirical study demonstrated that subjects in both Taiwan and the United States typically expect cross-national variations to be the opposite of those that actually occur. It also showed that dominant lay theories for overconfidence rest exclusively on factors such as inflated self-appraisals. A review revealed that such accounts are consistent with scholarly self-esteem explanations for a variety of self-appraisals. However, existing data imply that overconfidence in general knowledge rests on other mechanisms. The extensive theoretical and practical implications of the observed overconfidence misattributions and cross-national variations are discussed.     

The availability explanation of excessive plausibility assessments

The assessment of hypotheses in hypothesis generation involves a comparison between those hypotheses that have been generated (specified) and those that are not generated (unspecified). Experiment 1 was an investigation of an “availability explanation” for subjects' overconfidence in the probability of specified hypotheses. The conjecture is that subjects have difficulty retrieving unspecified hypotheses from memory. Therefore, the underpopulated set of unspecified hypotheses is assessed as less probable then it actually is and the specified set is assessed as more probable. Two manipulations to increase the availability of unspecified hypotheses were investigated. One involved explicitly requesting subjects to populate the unspecified set; the other was a computer presentation of candidate unspecified hypotheses. Results of experiment 1 were that assessment overconfidence for both experimental groups was reduced. The results support the conjecture that the availability heuristic is at least partially responsible for subjects' overconfidence. The main result of experiment 2 was that the overconfidence bias persisted with different assessment methods for both subject-generated and experimenter-supplied hypotheses.     

过度自信的跨文化差异

过度自信是指个体过高地估计自身判断的精确度,其经典的研究范式是常识问题及常识问题的变式现实情境问题。使用常识问题的研究一致发现,东方人显著比西方人更过度自信;使用现实情景问题的研究则发现,西方人比东方人更过度自信或两者无显著性差异。对“东方人比西方人过度自信”的解释包括认知习惯和教育系统两种主流观点。最后对出现不同研究结果的原因进行讨论,并进一步探讨解释的有效性和“西方人比东方人过度自信”的原因。     

Perceived impact of socially anxious behaviors on individuals' lives in Western and East Asian countries

The current study compared the predicted social and career impact of socially withdrawn and reticent behaviors among participants from Western and East Asian countries. Three hundred sixty-one college students from 5 Western countries and 455 students from 3 East Asian countries read hypothetical vignettes describing socially withdrawn and shy behaviors versus socially outgoing and confident behaviors. Participants then answered questions following each vignette indicating the extent to which they would expect the subject of the vignette to be socially liked and to succeed in their career. Participants also completed measures of their own social anxiety and quality of life. The results indicated significant vignette-by-country interactions in that the difference in perceived social and career impact between shy and outgoing vignettes was smaller among participants from East Asian countries than from Western countries. In addition, significant negative correlations were shown between personal level of shyness and experienced quality of life for participants from both groups of countries, but the size of this relationship was greater for participants from Western than East Asian countries. The results point to the more negative impact of withdrawn and socially reticent behaviors for people from Western countries relative to those from East Asia.     

A qualitative study of body image and appearance among men of Chinese ancestry in Australia

Little is known about the body image of non-White men living in Western countries, even though it has been suggested that they may be more at risk of body image concerns, especially if they internalize Western ideals. This study focused on identifying the main body image and appearance themes among 15 men of Chinese ancestry in Australia using semi-structured interviews and grounded theory. Moderate muscularity was the preferred ideal and height dissatisfaction was shown to be the primary concern. The majority was not invested in achieving muscularity and had a “holistic” approach to their body image that included concerns about hairstyling and clothing. In addition, the men were influenced by both Asian and Western ideals, and this included comparison targets with both Asian and Western men. Further studies are needed to assess the extent of men's body image and appearance concerns, and the role played by Asian and Western influences.     

Influences of Adaptation to Communist Rule on Value Priorities in Eastern Europe

The basic value priorities prevalent in Eastern Europe are studied in a cross-national comparison. Analyses of the implications of adaptation to life circumstances under communist regimes lead to the hypotheses that East European samples are likely to attribute especially high importance to conservatism and hierarchy values and low importance to egalitarianism, intellectual and affective autonomy, and mastery values. The same hypotheses apply to differences between countries within Eastern Europe in which there was greater or lesser communist penetration. These hypotheses are largely supported with data both from samples of school teachers and of university students from nine Eastern European and 12 Western European countries. Various possible alternative explanations are discussed: national economic level, religion, earlier shared history, effects of totalitarianism, and distinctiveness of Western Europe.     

Mode Transition and Change in Variable Use in Perceptual Learning

Runeson, Juslin, and Olsson (2000) proposed (a) that perceptual learning entails a transition from an inferential to a direct-perceptual mode of apprehension, and (b) that relative confidence—the difference between estimated and actual performance—indicates whether apprehension is inferential or direct. In 3 experiments participants received feedback on judgments of force; the results replicated Runeson et al.'s observed decrease in overconfidence but showed more overconfidence. Relative confidence depended on how performance was defined. An attempt to manipulate confidence failed, but trait confidence affected relative confidence. It was concluded that overconfidence does not necessarily signal inferential functioning and that a decrease in overconfidence might occur in a direct-perceptual mode. A theory of learning within the direct-perceptual mode, in addition to learning through a mode transition, appears necessary.     

先前情绪和过度自信对灾难事件后继风险决策的影响

研究考察了先前情绪和过度自信对灾难事件后继风险决策的影响。结果发现：(1)先前情绪的主效应显著, 积极情绪比消极情绪的个体在灾后风险决策时更加倾向于风险寻求;过度自信的主效应显著, 高过度自信比低过度自信个体在灾后风险决策时更加倾向于风险寻求。(2)先前情绪和过度自信水平交互影响灾难事件后继风险决策。高过度自信者在积极情绪状态下比在消极情绪状态下更倾向于风险寻求; 消极情绪状态下过度自信水平不同的个体之间没有显著差异。     

A random support model of the calibration of subjective probabilities

A stochastic model of the calibration of subjective probabilities based on support theory (Rottenstreich and Tversky, 1997, Tversky and Koehler, 1994) is presented. This model extends support theory—a general representation of probability judgment—to the domain of calibration, the analysis of the correspondence between subjective and objective probability. The random support model can account for the common finding of overconfidence, and also predicts the form of the relationship between overconfidence and item difficulty (the “hard–easy effect”). The parameters of the model have natural psychological interpretations, such as discriminability between correct and incorrect hypotheses, and extremity of judgment. The random support model can be distinguished from other stochastic models of calibration by: (a) using fewer parameters, (b) eliminating the use of variable cutoffs by mapping underlying support directly into judged probability, (c) allowing validation of model parameters with independent assessments of support, and (d) applying to a wide variety of tasks by framing probability judgment in the integrative context of support theory.     

Factors affecting consumers' trust in online product reviews

In this study, we apply the uncertainty reduction theory from communication to delineate the antecedents of consumers' trust in online product reviews. We test the competing effects of information content (argument quality) and social component (perceived background similarity) on consumers' trust in reviews. We also hypothesize that the strength of the effect is moderated by consumers' involvement. To test the hypotheses, we adopted a 2 × 2 × 2 repeated measures experimental design. The results show that both argument quality and perceived similarity contribute to increased trust but in varying degrees. The results provide mixed support to the moderating role of involvement. While argument quality played an important role in the high involvement mode, perceived similarity explained more variance in the low involvement mode. We discuss the implications of these results for both research and practice. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An explanation of the hard-easy effect in studies of realism of confidence in one's general knowledge

Abstract

Recent ecological approaches to realism of confidence in general knowledge (Gigerenzer, Hoffrage & Kleinbolting, 1991; Juslin, in press) argue that people are well-calibrated to their natural environments. Both the overconfidence phenomenon and the hard-easy effect are explained as consequences of informal experimenter-guided selection of almanac items, selection that changes the validity of the cues used by the subjects for selection of answers to the items. The paper presents the ecological approach and reports an experiment showing that: (1) when the objects of judgement are selected randomly from a natural environment, people are well-calibrated; (2) when more and less difficult item samples are created by selecting items with more and less familiar contents, i.e. in a way that does not affect the validity of the cues, no hard-easy effect is observed, and people are well-calibrated both for hard and easy item samples. These results, predicted by the ecological approach, provide further support for the ecological approach to realism of confidence.     

Schooling in western culture promotes context-free processing

Culture has been shown to influence the way people apprehend their physical environment. Cognitive orientation is more holistic in East Asian cultures, which emphasize relationships and connectedness among objects in the field, than in Western cultures, which are more prone to focus exclusively on the object and its attributes. We investigated whether, beyond, or in conjunction with culture, literacy and/or schooling may also have an influence on this cognitive orientation. Using the Framed-Line Test both in Portugal and in Thailand, we compared literate schooled adults with two groups of unschooled adults: one of illiterates and one of ex-illiterates. As in former studies on Western people, Portuguese-schooled literates were more accurate in the absolute task than in the relative task. In contrast, Portuguese illiterates and ex-illiterates were more accurate in the relative task than in the absolute task. Such an effect of schooling was not observed in the Thai groups, all of whom performed better on the relative task. Thus, the capacity to abstract from contextual information does not stem only from passive exposure to the culture or the physical environment of Western countries. Western schooling, as part of or in addition to culture, is a crucial factor.     

Exploring the utility of the CPAI-2 in a South African sample: Implications for the FFM

The Cross-Cultural Personality Assessment Inventory-2 (CPAI-2) was developed as an alternative instrument to measure personality in Asian cultures based on the argument that available instruments are largely based on the Five Factor Model of personality and may not adequately assess personality in Asian cultures. Research on the CPAI-2 was extended to non-Asian particularly Western cultures but not to African cultures. In this study a sample of 425 South African university students completed both the CPAI-2 and the NEO-PI-R to consider the utility of the CPAI-2 and the four factor model in which the instrument is located in an African context. The results were did not provide conclusive support for the four factor model as conceptualised in the CPAI-2. Support for the five factors of the FFM was evident but the results from both the four and five factor models indicated empirical support for a social relational aspect of personality. Based on these results, this paper argues for the necessity of incorporating social relational elements into the existing FFM and reflects on work done in the South African context which can inform this direction.     

Overconfidence in Probability and Frequency Judgments: A Critical Examination

The overconfidence observed in calibration studies has recently been questioned on both psychological and methodological grounds. In the first part of the article we discuss these issues and argue that overconfidence cannot be explained as a selection bias, and that it is not eliminated by random sampling of questions. In the second part of the article, we compare probability judgments for single events with judgments of relative frequency. Subjects received a target individual's personality profile and then predicted the target's responses to a series of binary questions. One group predicted the responses of an individual target, while a second group estimated the relative frequency of responses among all target subjects who shared a given personality profile. Judgments of confidence and estimates of relative frequency were practically indistinguishable; both exhibited substantial overconfidence and were highly correlated with independent judgments of representativeness.     

Gender Differences in Happiness: the Effects of Marriage,Social Roles,and Social Support in East Asia

Studies in Western countries and cross-national comparisons have shown that there are several important factors contributing to the level of happiness of individuals. Utilizing the East Asian Social Survey Health Module (2010), the present study examines this relationship in four East Asian countries: China, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. East Asian countries are an interesting case for this inquiry, due to the cultural contexts such as traditional gender relations. Therefore, we focus on gender differences in predictors of happiness of individuals and attempt to answer four questions: (1) Do gender differences in happiness exist in East Asian countries? (2) Does marriage still serve as the norm and thus contribute to individual’s happiness? (3) Does conforming to traditional gender roles (i.e., employment and parenthood) contribute to individual’s happiness? (4) Is the availability of social support (i.e., emotional, financial, and instrumental) positively associated with individual’s happiness? We find that there are gender differences in the determinants of happiness in East Asian countries. The result also indicates that marital status is a strong indicator of happiness in East Asian countries, especially for men but not necessarily for women. In addition, full time employment is positively associated with men’s happiness in China but negatively associated with women’s in Japan. Finally, social support is positively associated with individual’s happiness, especially for women.     

Around the world,adolescence is a time of heightened sensation seeking and immature self‐regulation

The dual systems model of adolescent risk‐taking portrays the period as one characterized by a combination of heightened sensation seeking and still‐maturing self‐regulation, but most tests of this model have been conducted in the United States or Western Europe. In the present study, these propositions are tested in an international sample of more than 5000 individuals between ages 10 and 30 years from 11 countries in Africa, Asia, Europe and the Americas, using a multi‐method test battery that includes both self‐report and performance‐based measures of both constructs. Consistent with the dual systems model, sensation seeking increased between preadolescence and late adolescence, peaked at age 19, and declined thereafter, whereas self‐regulation increased steadily from preadolescence into young adulthood, reaching a plateau between ages 23 and 26. Although there were some variations in the magnitude of the observed age trends, the developmental patterns were largely similar across countries.     

When overconfidence is revealed to others: Testing the status-enhancement theory of overconfidence

The status-enhancement theory of overconfidence proposes that overconfidence pervades self-judgment because it helps people attain higher social status. Prior work has found that highly confident individuals attained higher status regardless of whether their confidence was justified by actual ability ( Anderson, Brion, Moore, & Kennedy, 2012). However, those initial findings were observed in contexts where individuals’ actual abilities were unlikely to be discovered by others. What happens to overconfident individuals when others learn how good they truly are at the task? If those individuals are penalized with status demotions, then the status costs might outweigh the status benefits of overconfidence – thereby casting doubt on the benefits of overconfidence. In three studies, we found that group members did not react negatively to individuals revealed as overconfident, and in fact still viewed them positively. Therefore, the status benefits of overconfidence outweighed any possible status costs, lending further support to the status-enhancement theory.     

Are East Asians happy to work more or less? Associations between working hours,relative income and happiness in China,Japan, South Korea and Taiwan

As East Asians are, on average, less happy than those in economically developed Western nations, more insights regarding the associations between work, income and happiness are needed. This study analyzes data from the 2010 East Asian Social Survey to investigate these associations in China, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, and is framed in a similar context as previous studies that utilize data from Western nations and through the lens of social comparison theory. Path analysis is used to model the associations between happiness and its predictors while taking correlations between the predictors into account. Results show that working hours are negatively associated with happiness in China, Japan and Taiwan, but such an association is not observed in South Korea. At the same time, relative income is significantly associated with happiness in all four East Asian nations, but it only mediates the association between working hours and happiness in China. These results suggest that careful consideration of economic and labour policies are critical to promote the happiness of East Asian workers. Findings from this study are useful for further inquiries with regard to specific explanatory factors of the associations between working hours, relative income and happiness in East Asia.     

Naive empiricism and dogmatism in confidence research: a critical examination of the hard-easy effect

Two robust phenomena in research on confidence in one's general knowledge are the overconfidence phenomenon and the hard-easy effect. In this article, the authors propose that the hard-easy effect has been interpreted with insufficient attention to the scale-end effects, the linear dependency, and the regression effects in data and that the continued adherence to the idea of a "cognitive overconfidence bias" is mediated by selective attention to particular data sets. A quantitative review of studies with 2-alternative general knowledge items demonstrates that, contrary to widespread belief, there is (a) very little support for a cognitive-processing bias in these data; (b) a difference between representative and selected item samples that is not reducible to the difference in difficulty; and (c) near elimination of the hard-easy effect when there is control for scale-end effects and linear dependency.     

Corporate Social Responsibility,Employee–Company Identification,and Organizational Commitment: Mediation by Employee Engagement

Contrary to the theory and research on employee engagement in the western countries, less consideration has been given to the importance of employee engagement in Asian countries wherein its need is felt more. As more and more companies in Asia realize the importance of a productive workforce, this research examines the mediating role of employee engagement in the relationships of corporate social responsibility (CSR), employee–company identification (E–C) and organizational commitment (OC). Structural analysis of 290 online responses of employees working for various Indian and foreign information technology enabled services (ITES) companies in India, confirms the presence of partial mediation by employee engagement in between its antecedents (CSR and E–C) and its consequence (OC). The proposed model was found to be a good fit. The study provides empirical support to the argument that CSR and E–C are distant antecedents of OC. The results may encourage managers of ITES companies to consider CSR as an investment rather than an expense.