Combining predictors to achieve optimal trade-offs between selection quality and adverse impact

The authors propose a procedure to determine (a) predictor composites that result in a Pareto-optimal trade-off between the often competing goals in personnel selection of quality and adverse impact and (b) the relative importance of the quality and impact objectives that correspond to each of these trade-offs. They also investigated whether the obtained Pareto-optimal composites continue to perform well under variability of the selection parameters that characterize the intended selection decision. The results of this investigation indicate that this is indeed the case. The authors suggest that the procedure be used as one of a number of potential strategies for addressing the quality-adverse impact problem in settings where estimates of the selection parameters (e.g., validity estimates, predictor intercorrelations, subgroup mean differences on the predictors and criteria) are available from either a local validation study or meta-analytic research.     

College grade point average as a personnel selection device: ethnic group differences and potential adverse impact

College grade point average (GPA) is often used in a variety of ways in personnel selection. Unfortunately, there is little empirical research literature in human resource management that informs researchers or practitioners about the magnitude of ethnic group differences and any potential adverse impact implications when using cumulative GPA for selection. Data from a medium-sized university in the Southeast (N = 7,498) indicate that the standardized average Black-White difference for cumulative GPA in the senior year is d = 0.78. The authors also conducted analyses at 3 GPA screens (3.00, 3.25, and 3.50) to demonstrate that employers (or educators) might face adverse impact at all 3 levels if GPA continues to be implemented as part of a selection system. Implications and future research are discussed.     

Predicting performance and persistence in hospice volunteers

In a group of 75 prospective hospice volunteers, screened and accepted for training, those rated as performing satisfactorily differed significantly from those rated as performing unsatisfactorily or those who dropped out six months after completion of training. Discriminant function analysis indicated that a function consisting of death anxiety, tolerance, and flexibility significantly differentiated the three groups of volunteers. The satisfactory persisters demonstrated lower death anxiety, higher tolerance, and more moderate flexibility than unsatisfactory persisters or dropouts. Fifty (67%) of the 75 cases were correctly classified. These findings suggest that the inclusion of personality measures in the screening procedure could be useful in the selection of hospice volunteers.     

Educational attainment as a proxy for cognitive ability in selection: effects on levels of cognitive ability and adverse impact

The authors examined the differences in mean level of cognitive ability and adverse impact that can be expected when selecting employees solely on educational attainment as a proxy for cognitive ability versus selecting employees directly on cognitive ability. Selection using cognitive ability worked as a more efficient cognitive screen. Imposing an educational attainment standard of at least 1 year of college, though, did result in noticeably higher levels of cognitive ability in potential applicant pools than did random selection, meaning that educational attainment does work as a cognitive screen. These results held not only in a nationally representative sample but also within and across 6 different occupational groups. Finally, adverse impact is examined for selection using educational attainment, compared with selection on the basis of cognitive ability.     

Predicting performance in a psychological statistics course

In statistics courses for psychology students, only age and algebra skills predicted course performance of 71 students.     

Predicting the performance and innovativeness of scientists and engineers

A study of 644 scientists and engineers from 5 corporate research and development organizations investigated hypotheses generated from an interactionist framework of 4 individual characteristics as longitudinal predictors of performance and innovativeness. An innovative orientation predicted 1-year-later and 5-years-later supervisory job performance ratings and 5-years-later counts of patents and publications. An internal locus of control predicted 5-years-later patents and publications, and self-esteem predicted performance ratings for both times and patents. Team-level nonroutine tasks moderated the individual-level relationships between an innovative orientation and performance ratings and patents such that the relationships were stronger in a nonroutine task environment. Implications for an interactionist framework of performance and innovativeness for knowledge workers are discussed.     

Predicting unit performance by assessing transformational and transactional leadership

How do leadership ratings collected from units operating under stable conditions predict subsequent performance of those units operating under high stress and uncertainty? To examine this question, the authors calculated the predictive relationships for the transformational and transactional leadership of 72 light infantry rifle platoon leaders for ratings of unit potency, cohesion, and performance for U.S. Army platoons participating in combat simulation exercises. Both transformational and transactional contingent reward leadership ratings of platoon leaders and sergeants positively predicted unit performance. The relationship of platoon leadership to performance was partially mediated through the unit's level of potency and cohesion. Implications, limitations, and future directions for leadership research are discussed.     

Nonprofessional counselors: Revisiting selection and impact issues

This study examined two issues related to the use of nonprofessional counselors (n = 159) within the context of a diversion program for juvenile offenders. First, the relationship of the nonprofessionals' personality traits and general attitudes to client outcome was examined. No statistically significant correlations were observed. Second, the differential impact of various training and supervision factors was examined in terms of nonprofessional satisfaction, attitudes, and locus of control. Results suggested that training intensity, training content, and supervision setting may influence nonprofessionals' attitudes towards various social groups and their satisfaction with the nonprofessional experience.     

Predicting black and white differential item functioning in verbal analogy performance

Differential item functioning (DIF) is one technique for comparing ethnic populations that test makers employ to help ensure the fairness of their tests. The purpose of this ethnic comparison study is to investigate factors that may have a significant influence on DIF values associated with 217 SAT and 234 GRE analogy items obtained by comparing large samples of Black and White examinees matched for total verbal score. In one study, five significant regression predictors of ethnic differences were found to account for approximately 30% of the DIF variance. A second study replicated these findings. These significant ethnic comparisons are interpreted as consistent with a cultural/contextualist framework although competing explanations involving social-economic status and biological contributions could not be ruled out. Practical implications are discussed.     

Variation in cortical evoked responses as a function of performance criterion

Averaged evoked cortical responses (CER) from the scalp of human Ss were recorded within an experimental paradigm that permitted the performance criterion to be varied. The signals evoking the cortical responses were contingent upon S’s pressing a button to bisect a temporal interval within certain tolerance limits. Under passive conditions averaged response waveforms lacked a second, late component that became prominent under temporal bisection conditions. The late component P² - N² increased regularly in magnitude as the performance criterion was made more stringent. The effect of performance criterion on the earlier component, N¹ - P², was neither as large nor as systematic as that shown by P² - N².     

Predicting athletic performance from cardiovascular indexes of challenge and threat

This study examined the relationship between pre-performance motivational states (challenge vs. threat) and subsequent performance in athletic competition. Prior to the season, college baseball and softball players imagined and gave a speech about a specific baseball/softball playing situation while cardiovascular indexes of challenge and threat were recorded. These physiological challenge/threat indexes significantly predicted athletic performance during the subsequent season, such that players who experienced challenge in the laboratory performed better relative to those who experienced threat. The implications for personnel selection and the biopsychosocial model of challenge and threat are discussed.     

Response selection,sensitivity, and taste-test performance

Tasters selected the odd stimulus from among sets of three samples of party dip. Two samples came from one batch, and one sample came from another batch. The physicochemical difference between the batches consisted of the presence or absence of added salt. Two different tests of discriminability were undertaken by the same subjects with the same stimuli: the triangle test and the three-alternative forced-choice (3-AFC) method. Although different numbers of correct selections were obtained in the two tasks, an index of discriminability,d’, had the same value when the data were analyzed in accordance with the Thurstone-Ura and signal-detection models, respectively. The average data support Frijters’s (1979b) contention that different models of the discrimination process are appropriate to the results of the triangular and the 3-AFC procedures. Further analysis of the data revealed that discrimination was poorer for trios containing one physicochemically weak stimulus and two stronger stimuli than it was for trios containing one stronger stimulus and two weak stimuli. A two-signal 3-AFC task was undertaken by some subjects, andd’ estimates from this task were lower than expected on the basis of performance in the other tasks.     

Human auditory-evoked response: Specific effects of signal strength and performance criterion

Computer-averaged auditory-evoked responses were recorded from the scalp of seven human Sa in order to study the effects of both low-signal levels and different performance criteria upon specific components of the waveform. Noise bursts of ?2, 0. +2. or +6 dB seDl8tion level (SL) were presented contingent upon the S’s correct bisection of a temporal interval as the degree of accuracy required from him was systematically varied. Analyses of variance indicated that a positive peak in the waveform at a latency of approximately 300 msec increased in amplitude as the stringency of the performance criterion increased but showed no change as signal strength varied. The negative peak at approximately 125 msec latency increased with increasing signal strength but remained constant as the stringency of the performance criterion was varied.     

Predicting performance and performance satisfaction: mindfulness and beliefs about the ability to deal with social barriers in sport

This research investigates the role of beliefs about the ability to deal with specific social barriers and its relationships to mindfulness, football performance, and satisfaction with one's own and team performance. Study 1 aimed at eliciting these social barriers. Study 2 tested (i) whether self-efficacy referring to social barriers would predict performance over and above task-related self-efficacy and collective efficacy and (ii) the mediating role of self-efficacy to overcome social barriers in the relationship between mindfulness and performance. Participants were football (soccer) players aged 16–21 years (Study 1: N = 30; Study 2: N = 101, longitudinal sample: n = 88). Study 1 resulted in eliciting 82 social barriers referring to team, peer leadership, and coaches. Study 2 showed that task-related self-efficacy and collective efficacy explained performance satisfaction at seven-month follow-up, whereas self-efficacy referring to social barriers explained shooting performance at seven-month follow-up. Indirect associations between mindfulness and performance were found with three types of self-efficacy referring to social barriers, operating as parallel mediators. Results provide evidence for the role of beliefs about the ability to cope with social barriers and show a complex interplay between different types of self-efficacy and collective efficacy in predicting team sport performance.     

Predicting performance on text: Delayed versus immediate predictions and tests

North Dakota State University, Fargo, North Dakota Delayed judgments of learning for word pairs are more accurate than immediate judgments of learning when the memory test is delayed. In the present experiment, I investigated a similar paradigm with text. Participants predicted performance on texts either immediately after reading the texts or after a delay following the reading of other texts, and tests were given either immediately or after a delay. Immediate ratings with an immediate test produced the most accurate predictions, and immediate ratings with a delayed test produced less accurate predictions. Delaying both the ratings and the test did not produce more accurate predictions than immediate predictions and a delayed test. The results for delayed judgments of learning with text were different from those with word pairs.     

The mean and variance of the selection differential after top‐down selection from a mixture of normal samples

A procedure is presented for determining the mean and variance of the selection differential for top‐down selections in which the candidates come from populations that have a different average score on the selection measure. Although the procedure is based on the same stochastic model and requires identical data to the currently available method for estimating the mean selection differential, it has the advantage that the resulting expressions are valid for finite‐sample selection decisions and that the variance of the selection differential can also be assessed. The difference between the two procedures is illustrated by means of an example application, and it is shown how the present results are particularly helpful in determining the expected utility of personnel selection decisions.     

Predicting employee turnover from performance,satisfaction, and leader-member exchange

As part of a study of the role of supervision in, predicting turnover, 105 nurses provided confidential data on leader-member exchange and satisfaction with supervision, while their supervisors provided performance evaluation information. Although results reaffirmed an inverse correlation between employee performance and turnover (r=–.23p<.05), only directional support was obtained for the hypothesis that performance moderates the relationship between satisfaction with supervision and turnover. Turnover was also not found to be curvilinearly related to performance. Additionally, the, results did not replicate an earlier finding that leader-member exchange is a strong predictor of empolyee turnover. The results are interpreted as underscoring the difficulty of predicting turnover from affect, and the need to, develop refined theoretical models that specifically link these constructs.