Testing 40 Predictions From the Transtheoretical Model Again,With Confidence

Testing Theory-based Quantitative Predictions (TTQP) represents an alternative to traditional Null Hypothesis Significance Testing (NHST) procedures and is more appropriate for theory testing. The theory generates explicit effect size predictions and these effect size estimates, with related confidence intervals, are used to test the predictions. The focus of a study is shifted to a quantitative approach in contrast to the NHST dyadic decision centered on testing a prediction not based on the theory. This article describes the TTQP as an alternative approach by replicating and extending a test of 40 a priori predictions based on the Transtheoretical Model (TTM). Specific quantitative predictions were made about the magnitude of the effect size (ω²). The predictions involved movement from 1 of 3 initial stages (Precontemplation, Contemplation, and Preparation) to stage membership 12 months later. In the initial study, 36 of the 40 predictions were confirmed. The same 40 predictions are evaluated on a sample (N = 3,923) of smokers recruited from a large New England HMO for a smoking cessation study. The predictions were recalibrated based on the first study and 99% confidence intervals were employed to test the predictions. Thirty-two of the 40 predictions were confirmed. Of the 8 failures, 4 were judged to reflect a need for further recalibration, 1 was attributed to sampling fluctuation, and 3 suggested revisions of the theory are needed. The results provide overall support for the TTM. The study also illustrates some of the challenges of testing quantitative predictions.     

Discrete threshold versus continuous strength models of perceptual recognition.

Two experiments were designed to test discrete-threshold models of letter and word recognition against models that assume that decision criteria are applied to measures of continuous strength. Although our goal is to adjudicate this matter with respect to broad classes of models, some of the specific predictions for discrete-threshold are generated from Grainger and Jacobs' (1994) Dual-Readout Model (DROM) and some of the predictions for continuous strength are generated from a revised version of the Activation-Verification Model (Paap, Newsome, McDonald, & Schvaneveldt, 1982). Experiment 1 uses a two-alternative forced-choice task that is followed by an assessment of confidence and then a whole report if a word is recognized. Factors are manipulated to assess the presence or magnitude of a neighbourhood-frequency effect, a lexical-bias effect, a word-superiority effect, and a pseudoword advantage. Several discrepancies between DROM's predictions and the obtained data are noted. Both types of models were also used to predict the distribution of responses across the levels of confidence for each individual participant. The predictions based on continuous strength were superior. Experiment 2 used a same-different task and confidence ratings to enable the generation of receiver operating characteristics (ROCs). The shapes of the ROCs are more consistent with the continuous strength assumption than with a discrete threshold.     

Processes and Stages of Change: Counseling With the Transtheoretical Model of Change

Technical eclecticism and theoretical integration literature has typically examined how multiple approaches to counseling practice may lead to more comprehensive and functional outcomes. Few have proposed an integration of approaches from a scientist‐practitioner perspective; many others have neglected the richness found in the body of existing theory. The purpose of this synthesis is to highlight the contributions that the Transtheoretical Model of Change (J. O. Prochaska & C. C. DiClemente, 1984; J. O. Prochaska & J. C. Norcross, 1994) has for technical eclecticism and theoretical integration. The intervention implications of processes and stages of change are discussed.     

A stage-matched intervention for exercise behavior change based on the transtheoretical model

The effectiveness of a stage-matched intervention for enhancing exercise behavior was investigated with related Transtheoretical Model constructs among young Korean adults. 265 university students (147 men, 118 women; M age=24.1 yr., SD=3.5) enrolled in Seoul National University of Technology voluntarily participated in an 8-wk. intervention study. In order to measure exercise behavior and its related psychological constructs, the Stages of Readiness for Exercise Behavior Scale, Decision Balance Scale for Exercise, Exercise Self-efficacy Scale, Processes of Change Scale, and Leisure Time Exercise Questionnaire were used. Results indicated that the participants' exercise readiness was significantly changed in a positive way after the 8-wk. intervention. There was a significant main effect of testing time and an interaction between testing time and exercise readiness stage at baseline. There were significant interactions between testing times and groups for all Transtheoretical Model measures, implying that the stage-matched intervention can be an effective tool for increasing exercise readiness and related psychological variables. The present study provides a starting point for stage-matched interventions aimed at increasing exercise levels, and a baseline level from which to evaluate interventions.     

Self-monitoring and the association between confidence and accuracy

A personality prediction task in which a confidence rating accompanies each judgment is used to test the hypotheses that self-monitoring is positively related to accuracy, positively related to confidence, negatively related to calibration, and capable of acting as a moderator of the relationship between accuracy and confidence. Data from 101 university students support two of these predictions: High self-monitors exhibit more confidence and poorer calibration than low self-monitors. Concern for appropriateness is found to be unrelated to all other variables studied. Results are discussed in the context of socioanalytic theory and recent theories of self-presentation, affectivity, and the relationship between illusions and well-being.     

Patterns of Conflict Resolution Within Relationships and Coercive Sexual Behavior of Men and Women

Conflict tactics within relationships and coercive sexual behavior are separate phenomena that are empirically related. To answer why they should be related, we drew upon two theoretical frameworks: an individualized form of cultural spillover and feminist control theory. Using an ANOVA framework, we constructed hypotheses through which we could (1) test for relations among constructs and (2) discriminate between the predictions of cultural spillover and feminist theory. We hypothesized that the severity of individuals' coercive sexual behavior would be related to the violence level of conflict tactics in relationships and also to a pattern of generalized psychological abuse within relationships. We also hypothesized that men, compared to women, would engage in more physically coercive sexual behavior and use more violence in conflict tactics. University students (50% women, 93% <23 years old, from a school with 73% White students) responded to the measures. With the exception of the last hypothesis, these predictions were supported by the overall data, although not universally within levels of gender. Based on the pattern of hypothesis confirmation and inconsistencies, we discuss the mix of support and potential moderators that would resolve inconsistencies for each theory.     

Understanding Humility and Its Role in Relational Therapy

Humility is a character trait and virtue that has received scant attention in psychotherapy literature. A panel of experts was assembled to confer on their beliefs about humility for this Delphi study. They responded to a proposed definition of humility and provided a variety of statements regarding the role of humility in client change and relational therapy in general. The results suggest that key elements of change that occur during the process of relational therapy (including certain “common factors”) seem to be related to humility. Also, humility’s unique relationship to self and other suggests it is often at work in relational change. The authors propose further exploration of humility and its role as a pre-cursor to client change efforts. Humility’s role in the Transtheoretical Model of Change is hypothesized and future directions for theory and research are suggested.     

Influences of metamemory on performance predictions for text

When predicting future performance on tests over text material, do individuals estimate retention in addition to assessing comprehension? In Experiment 1, participants either rated their comprehension or predicted performance for each text, with lower ratings indicating lower confidence either in comprehension or in eventual performance. Judgement magnitude was significantly lower for performance predictions than for comprehension ratings, suggesting that predictions were based partly on retention estimates. In Experiment 2, predictions varied with anticipated test delay (15 min or 2 weeks) whereas comprehension ratings did not, providing further evidence that individuals estimate retention when predicting performance. Analyses of individual differences suggest that both good and poor performers incorporate retention estimates when predicting performance, but better performers do so in a more discriminative manner. Implications for theory of metacognitive judgements are discussed.     

Evaluating Theories of Health Behavior Change: A Hierarchy of Criteria Applied to the Transtheoretical Model

The most common criteria recommended by philosophers of science for evaluating theories were organised within a hierarchy ranging from the least to the most risky tests for theories of health behavior change. The hierarchy progressed across: (1) Clarity; (2) Consistency; (3) Parsimony; (4) Testable; (5) Predictive Power; (6) Explanatory Power; (7) Productivity; (8) Generalisable; (9) Integration; (10) Utility; (11) Efficacy; and (12) Impact. The hierarchy was applied to the Transtheoretical Model (TTM) as an example of a health behavior change theory. The application was from the perspective of critics and advocates of TTM. Examples of basic and applied research challenging and supporting TTM across the hierarchy of criteria are presented. The goal is to provide a model for comparing alternative theories and to evaluate progress across the hierarchy within a particular theory. As theories meet criteria at each step in the hierarchy, the research and applications they generate can have increasing impacts on the science and practice of health behavior change.     

Mentally walking through doorways causes forgetting: The location updating effect and imagination

Researchers have documented an intriguing phenomenon whereby simply walking through a doorway causes forgetting (the location updating effect). The Event Horizon Model is the most commonly cited theory to explain these data. Importantly, this model explains the effect without invoking the importance or reliance upon perceptual information (i.e., seeing oneself pass through the doorway). This generates the intriguing hypothesis that the effect may be demonstrated in participants who simply imagine walking through a doorway. Across two experiments, we explicitly test this hypothesis. Participants familiarised themselves with both real (Experiment 1) and virtual (Experiment 2) environments which served as the setting for their mental walk. They were then provided with an image to remember and were instructed to imagine themselves walking through the previously presented space. In both experiments, when the mental walk required participants to pass through a doorway, more forgetting occurred, consistent with the predictions laid out in the Event Horizon Model.     

Stages of change in fruit intake: A longitudinal examination of stability,stage transitions and transition profiles

The present study examined stability and transitions in Transtheoretical stages of change for fruit intake in an adult cohort of 735 individuals not exposed to a planned intervention. Six assessments took place within a four-month period with varying time intervals using electronic questionnaires, measuring fruit intake, stage of change and demographic characteristics. Precontemplation and maintenance were the most stable stages of change, while preparation was the least stable. Longer time intervals showed lower stability, but frequent stage transitions also occurred in shorter time intervals. Seven transition profiles were distinguished. Sequences within transition profiles mostly showed stage transitions to adjacent stages, independent of the interval duration. Differences in fruit intake, age, level of education and ethnicity were found between different transition profiles. Stability rates and most transition sequences largely support the Transtheoretical Model. Results indicating potential deviations from the model, e.g. short-term stage instability and stage transition profiles not in accordance with the Transtheoretical Model are discussed.     

Confidence ill stimulus predictions and choice reaction time

In two choice reaction time (RT) experiments, a stimulus prediction and a confidence judgment in the prediction preceded each occurrence of one of two stimulus alternatives. Ss identified each stimulus presentation by pressing a left-hand or right-hand telegraph key. In Experiment I the source of the stimulus predictions and confidence estimates was varied between groups of 20 Ss. For each condition, RT to correctly predicted stimuli was an inverse function of prediction confidence. Following incorrectly predicted stimuli, RT was not reliably influenced by confidence when S gave both predictions and confidence judgments; but RT to incorrectly predicted stimuli was an increasing function of confidence when E verbalized the predictions and confidence estimates or when S predicted and E indicated confidence. In Experiment II Ss made predictions and the validity of Es confidence estimate was manipulated between Ss. When Es confidence was perfectly related to the probability of a correct prediction, choice RT to nonpredicted stimuli was inversely related to confidence. However, choice RT to nonpredicted stimuli was not affected by prediction confidence when Es judgments were random.     

Contribution of parents' adult attachment and separation attitudes to parent‐adolescent conflict resolution

This study examined the contribution to parent‐adolescent conflict resolution of parental adult attachment styles and attitudes toward adolescent separation. Questionnaires were completed by 295 couples with early to late adolescent children. Structural equation models were used to test self and partner influences on conflict resolution for three attachment orientations: confidence (model A), anxiety (model B) and avoidance (model C). Model A showed self influences between parents' confidence orientation and negotiation and also via positive attitudes towards separation. Also, the fathers' use of negotiation was facilitated by the mothers' confidence orientation and vice versa, indicating partner influences as well. Model B showed self influences between parents' anxiety orientation and the use of dominance and withdrawal and also via negative attitudes towards separation. Model C showed self influences between parents' avoidance orientation and dominance and withdrawal, and a partner influence between fathers' avoidance and mothers' use of dominance. The results indicated that the parents' adult attachment system and the parenting system were related in the area of conflict resolution, and that self influences were stronger than partner influences.     

When Ignorance Is Bliss The Role of Motivation to Reduce Uncertainty in Uncertainty Reduction Theory

Three studies were conducted with the goal to articulate and test models for integrating the concept of motivation to reduce uncertainty into the axiomatic structure of uncertainty reduction theory. Multiple models were considered, each model defining motivation to reduce uncertainty in a different way. Motivation to reduce uncertainty was defined as a scope condition (Model 2), as tolerance for uncertainty (Model 3), as a weighted function of uncertainty by its importance (Model 4), and as the difference between one's uncertainty level and one's tolerance for uncertainty (Models 5a and 5b). Each of these models was compared to the baseline model (Model 1) derived from the original presentation of the theory where level of uncertainty, by itself, serves as a determinant of various communication behaviors. Tests of these models in terms of their ability to predict information seeking and attraction reveal that none of the models provides a consistent integration of motivation to reduce uncertainty into uncertainty reduction theory. Rather, tolerance for uncertainty (Model 3) is one of three determinants of information seeking, while level of uncertainty (Model 1) is one of three determinants of attraction. This inability to integrate motivation to reduce uncertainty into uncertainty reduction theory can be attributed to the consistent failure to find support for deviance and incentive value as determinants of tolerance for uncertainty, the rejection of Axiom 3 in uncertainty reduction theory (which specifies a positive relationship between uncertainty and information seeking), and the rejection of Theorem 17 (which specifies a negative relationship between information seeking and liking).     

A critical comparison of two random-walk models for two-choice reaction time

Two random-walk models for two-choice reaction time, being the sequential probability ratio test model initially suggested by Stone and the relative judgment theory recently proposed by Link, are here compared. The comparison shows the precise mathematical relation between the models, the predictions they have in common, and two points at which they differ. Three experiments concerned with the effect of stimulus probability on two-choice reaction time are examined with respect to three predictions from the models. In this three-way comparison the two models are more like each other than either is to the data; a greater variety of phenomena is revealed than either model can at present accommodate.     

Condom Use by Low-Income African American and Hispanic Youth With a Weil-Known Partner: Integrating the Health Belief Model,Theory of Reasoned Action,and the Construct Accessibility Model1

This study used multiple group structural equation modeling (SEM) to evaluate gender and ethnic differences in a theoretical model of condom use with a well known partner. The sample consisted of urban, low income, African American and Hispanic males and females. The theoretical model incorporated concepts from the Health Belief Model (HBM), Theory of Reasoned Action (TRA), and Construct Accessibility Model (CAM). A new theoretical concept, condom predisposition, emerged from SEM as a predictor of condom use in all four gender-ethnic groups. This concept combines elements of the TRA (attitude, partner norm) and CAM (accessibility of condom related constructs). Statistically reliable differences were found in the theoretical models for each group. For example, talking about AIDS was positively related to a predisposition to use condoms for African American males and both Hispanic males and females. In contrast, for African American females, it was their concern about AIDS that was positively related to this predisposition. These results underscore the importance of investigating gender differences within ethnic groups, and benefits of integrating different theoretical perspectives.     

Quantification of human confidence in functional relations

What makes people infer that two continuous-valued entities are functionally related? Involving factors influencing human confidence in the existence of a functional link between two supposed variables has not so far been discussed in function learning literature. By examining this problem and based on relevant results from cognitive psychology, I propose a hypothesis according to which human confidence in a link between cue and criterion is affected by three factors: The difficulty of functions, the level of noise in observed data, and the sample size. Here, the formalization of this hypothesis forms a novel mathematical model of function learning which can also be used for predictions; so the resulting model receives cue-criterion pairs of a supposed relation and produces two outputs: Confidence and predicting function. In an experiment, the performance of a computational implementation of the model is compared with human data. The results show that the model is successful in tracking changes in human confidence. A close correspondence between the predictions of the model and humans was also achieved.     

In search of templates

This study reflects a recent shift towards the study of early stages of expert memory acquisition for chess positions. Over the course of 15 sessions, two subjects who knew virtually nothing about the game of chess were trained to memorise positions. Increase in recall performance and chunk size was captured by power functions, confirming predictions made by the template theory [Cogn. Psychol. 31 (1996) 1; Memory 6 (1998) 225; Cogn. Sci. 24 (2000) 651]. The human data were compared to that of a computer simulation run on CHREST (Chunk Hierarchy and REtrieval STructures), an implementation of the template theory. The model accounts for the pattern of results in the human data, although it underestimates the size of the largest chunks and the rate of learning. Evidence for the presence of templates in human subjects was found.     

Transtheoretical Model Constructs for Physical Activity Behavior are Invariant across Time among Ethnically Diverse Adults in Hawaii

OBJECTIVES: Physical activity (PA) research applying the Transtheoretical Model (TTM) to examine group differences and/or change over time requires preliminary evidence of factorial validity and invariance. The current study examined the factorial validity and longitudinal invariance of TTM constructs recently revised for PA. METHOD: Participants from an ethnically diverse sample in Hawaii (N=700) completed questionnaires capturing each TTM construct. RESULTS: Factorial validity was confirmed for each construct using confirmatory factor analysis with full-information maximum likelihood. Longitudinal invariance was evidenced across a shorter (3-month) and longer (6-month) time period via nested model comparisons. CONCLUSIONS: The questionnaires for each validated TTM construct are provided, and can now be generalized across similar subgroups and time points. Further validation of the provided measures is suggested in additional populations and across extended time points.     

Does change in positive affect mediate and/or moderate the impact of symptom distress on psychological adjustment after cancer diagnosis? A prospective analysis

This study tested the predictive value of the Transtheoretical Model (TTM) for the preparation to action stage transition by conducting a detailed examination of changes in TTM components in the days leading up to, and following, a planned quit attempt. Participants were 193 callers to a Quitline telephone service. Only limited support for the TTM was found. Consistent with the TTM, measures of self-efficacy were related to making an attempt and to achieving 7 + days of abstinence. Contrary to the TTM, the behavioral change processes were unrelated to making quit attempts and to short-term abstinence, with the exception of self-liberation, which is conceptually related to self-efficacy. New non-TTM measures assessing commitment to quitting were predictive of outcomes. The results provide strong support for the preparation to action transition being discontinuous, and thus consistent with a stage model. However, they bring into question many of the other postulates of the TTM. Further critical testing and evaluation of the TTM is required.