多特征多选择决策任务的信息策略测量

启发式是人类决策的重要特征,当决策信息加工容量超过决策者信息加工能力的时候,这时Simon所说的“有限理性”就发挥了重要的作用,决策者经常依据自身的价值判断与以往的知识经验,省略许多决策线索的搜索,寻找一个所谓“满意的选择”。当决策任务处于高度不确定性状态与战略性的情景的时候,引导决策者行动的已经不是决策任务信息,决策者已经没有时间或者没有信息来源去考查这些信息,启发式与行动策略已经成为影响决策结果的重要因素。     

企业新产品开发决策的不确定性和决策策略模拟实验研究

本文以企业新产品开发为决策内容,根据决策策略的规定性理论框架和先前调查所得决策案例,设计四种决策情景来代表四种不确定状态,通过５６名来自５个工厂的管理人员的现场模拟实验,着重研究这类决策的不确定性和决策策略之间关系。结果发现,在新产品开发的决策中,决策策略随不确定状态而改变;决策情景的不确定程度和决策策略没有严格的—一对应关系;在四类不确定决策情景下,都有管理人员采用混合型策略。这一发现同混合扫瞄策略观点和垃圾罐模型的思想相一致。并且,随着决策情景的不确定程度加大,决策时间逐渐延长。最后我们提出了应继续研究的课题。     

决策策略与个性特征关系的模拟实验

本研究以实验室模拟实验和现场模拟实验为手段,以大学本科生和工厂管理人员为被试,分两部分进行。第一部分,以企业新产品开发为决策内容,考察这类决策情景的不确定性和决策策略的关系。结果发现,决策策略随不确定状态而改变;决策情景的不确定程度和决策策略没有严格的一一对应关系;在四类不确定决策情景下,都有被试采用混合型策略,从而验证了先前研究的结果。第二部分,我们考察了决策策略与个性特征的关系。结果发现,偏离决策策略的规定性理论所预测的被试同没有偏离的被试在CPI量表的三种个性特征上,即成熟度、成就动机与管理潜能,有显著性差异;对实验室实验被试和现场实验被试而言,均发现管理潜能这一个性特征一致性的显著影响。文章最后提出了有待进一步探索的课题。     

认知信息的详尽度与锚定对决策策略的影响

以191名大学生为被试,采用2×3的完全组间设计,探讨不同认知信息详尽度和有无锚定材料条件下大学生决策策略类型的选择。结果发现:(1)认知信息详尽度对被试的决策策略选择的影响显著,被试在低认知信息详尽度水平下倾向于选择采用维度比较策略,而在高认知信息详尽度水平下倾向于选择采用综合比较策略,并且倾向程度差异显著。(2)锚定效应对决策策略选择的影响不显著,认知信息详尽度与锚定的交互作用也不显著。     

民众对于社会动机冲突的决策策略研究

该研究以自编的社会动机冲突决策问卷为调查工具,分析民众对于社会动机冲突问题的决策策略及特征.结果发现：（1）民众对于社会动机冲突问题的决策策略可以分为合作策略与竞争策略,合作策略包括平分策略和谦让策略;（2）男性和女性对于社会动机冲突问题的决策策略有明显的性别差异.     

人事筛选和挑选决策策略的比较

本研究采用了多特征决策研究中的过程追踪技术,对人事筛选和挑选决策的策略进行了单步跳转和多步跳转分析与比较。结果发现,在人事挑选时,被试更多采用基于方案的补偿性策略,并以有关合适人选的心理映像为标准做出决策;而筛选时更多采用基于特征的非补偿策略以减少认知负荷,同时,以方案间比较为目的的补偿性策略也更多使用。这些策略变化体现了决策者的认知适应性。     

任务重要性对决策策略有效性的影响

研究以选择决策中决策任务的主观性为关注点,通过现场和实验室两项实验考察决策任务重要性对启发式和分析式策略有效性的影响。结果发现,在感知任务重要的情况下,采用分析式策略的被试决策后满意度高于采用启发式策略的被试;在感知任务不重要情况下,采用启发式策略的被试决策后满意度高于采用分析式策略的被试。研究表明,决策者感知到的任务重要与否会影响启发式和分析式两种决策策略的效果。     

行为决策视野中的幸福及其提升策略

人类的终极目标之一就是获得幸福。随着行为决策研究的不断发展, 近年来有许多行为决策领域的研究者开始了对幸福的探索。行为决策中的幸福法则包括：快乐编辑、少即是更好、巅峰-结尾法则、短视和损失规避。基于这些法则的提升幸福的策略主要包括：告诉消息的策略、赠送礼物的策略、使用损失规避提升幸福的策略、使用巅峰-结尾法则提升幸福的策略和克服行为短视的策略。     

不同风险态度大学生职业决策的线索偏好及信息搜索特点

探讨不同风险态度的大学生在职业决策中的线索偏好及信息搜索特点。以大学生为被试,以Weber的风险态度问卷为工具,筛选出风险寻求大学生26名,风险规避大学生23名,采用信息板技术进行模拟职业决策研究。结果发现：（1）风险寻求和风险规避大学生在职业决策中点击次数最多的职业属性均依次是工资、发展空间和兴趣;（2）在信息板的点击次数上,风险寻求被试比风险规避被试更多;在搜索模式上,风险寻求组被试和风险规避组的得分均为正值,但风险寻求组被试的得分显著高于风险规避组。因此,大学生职业决策中偏好的线索主要是工资、发展空间和兴趣;风险寻求者的信息搜索模式与风险规避者不同,风险寻求者更倾向于以选项为基础的搜索模式。     

异位妊娠临床诊疗中的策略与决策

通过异位妊娠的发病率,诊断及治疗中的注意事项,治疗方法的选择的分析,探讨异位妊娠的临床诊断及治疗的策略与决策。为了提高异位妊娠的诊断率、减少误诊率,需要建立合理的临床思维方法和科学的处理程序,为异位妊娠的临床诊断及治疗,提供科学的临床决策方法。     

A Comparison of Single-Step and Multiple-Step Transition Analyses of Multiattribute Decision Strategies

Evaluating information is a fundamental component of multiattribute decision making that can be guided by one of many cognitive strategies. Considerable research has examined the factors that influence strategy selection; however, the identification of strategies remains problematic. The search sequence or transitions that a decision maker uses when searching a matrix of decision information can provide important clues to the strategy guiding the processing of decision information. The most common form of strategy analysis is to examine each transition from one piece of information to the next to establish whether these transitions are primarily alternative or attribute based. However, the resulting single-step transition indices often restrict strategy identification to a quantitative measure of compensatoriness and were found to provide conflicting results for the same search data. The current paper proposes a multiple-step transition analysis that records more complex, longer transitions to provide a multivariate profile of the strategy. Empirical support for the advantages of a multiple-step transition analysis over single-step transition indices is also provided.     

Choice Behaviour in a Computer-Aided Multiattribute Decision Task

Choice behaviour in an interactive multiple-criteria decision-making environment was examined experimentally. The main purpose was to investigate whether subjects are more comfortable in processing criterion/attribute information simultaneously (in parallel) or sequentially. As a research instrument, three different interactive software systems were used on a microcomputer by management students at the Helsinki School of Economics and Business Administration and the Institute of National Economy in Moscow to solve essentially the same problem of buying/leasing a home tailored to the respective decision environments. The experiments also provided us with a possibility to learn useful lessons about how human subjects make computer-supported choices. The results of the experiments are discussed. Furthermore, questions for future research are suggested. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Holistic Information Integration in Child Decision Making

Weighted‐additive (WADD) strategies require decision makers to integrate multiple values weighted by their relevance. From what age can children make choices in line with such a WADD‐strategy? We compare multi‐attribute decisions of children (6–7; 8–10; 11–12‐year‐olds) with adults in an open information‐board environment without pre‐decisional information search. In two experiments, we classify decision strategies based on individual choice patterns and find that in all age groups the majority of participants are users of a WADD‐strategy. Simple decision heuristics such as lexicographic strategies were applied rarely by children and not at all by adults. In two additional follow‐up studies, we further investigate the underlying process of WADD‐application by analysing decision latencies in combination with a retrospective think‐aloud study. Results suggest that children did not apply WADD‐strategies in a deliberate fashion in our experiments. Overall, our findings demonstrate that the ability to make good and quick decisions by holistically integrating information is already present in young children. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Effectiveness of Partial Information about Attribute Weights for Ranking Alternatives in Multiattribute Decision Making

Weighted additive evaluation functions are widely used to rank alternatives in decision making under certainty with multiple evaluation attributes. Some researchers have suggested that approximate attribute weights may be adequate to accurately rank alternatives. Use of approximate weights would simplify decision analysis since detailed elicitation of weights can be time consuming and controversial. This article investigates the degree to which partial information about the relative magnitudes of attribute weights is sufficient to rank alternatives as a function of the number of decision alternatives, the number of attributes, and the number of allowed levels for each attribute. A simulation analysis, as well as a reanalysis of an actual application, shows that partial information about weights is often not sufficient to determine the most preferred alternative for realistic decision problems. Hence, approximation procedures for specifying weights may lead to errors. However, our work also shows that a simple analysis procedure can be used to accurately determine whether partial information about weights is adequate to correctly specify the most preferred alternative. This procedure can be useful for identifying situations in which detailed elicitation of weights is not needed.     

The Effect of Decision Strategy on Deciding to Defer Choice

Recent research has examined consumer decision making when the option of not choosing any of the alternatives is also provided. The findings from this research suggest that the decision to defer choice is sensitive to the uncertainty of choosing the most preferred option from the set of alternatives provided. Building on this research, the author tests whether the decision to defer choice is also influenced by task variables that influence decision uncertainty. In the first experiment, this proposition is tested for choice problems in which information on three relatively equally attractive alternatives is presented either sequentially or simultaneously. As predicted, the preference for the defer-choice option was greater when the three alternatives were presented simultaneously. A second study forced subjects into using one of four decision strategies in order to choose between two non-dominated alternatives. The preference for the no-choice option was found to be higher when the rule required explicit attribute tradeoffs and lower when it simplified choice. These results suggest that choice uncertainty is influenced by the decision strategy used to determine the preference among alternatives. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of the results for marketers' communication strategies.     

Selection of Decision Strategies After Conscious and Unconscious Thought

It is commonly assumed that the use of simple, non‐compensatory strategies is especially pronounced in memory‐based decisions, where information costs are high. At the same time, there is evidence that in memory‐based decisions, a compensatory processing of attributes is facilitated when the processing occurs unconsciously rather than consciously. We applied a strategy classification approach—developed in research on non‐compensatory heuristics—to test two key tenets of unconscious thought theory: the capacity principle and the weighting principle. Participants memorized attribute information about cars and were subsequently either directed to or diverted from thinking consciously about their preferences between the cars (conscious versus unconscious thought). Then, participants indicated in pair‐wise choices which car they would prefer and were classified (based on their choices) as using either one of two compensatory strategies (equal weight or weighted additive) or a non‐compensatory strategy (lexicographic heuristic). In line with the capacity principle, the number of participants best described by a compensatory strategy (the equal‐weight strategy) tended to be higher after unconscious thought than after conscious thought, whereas the number of participants best described by the lexicographic heuristic tended to be lower. Inconsistent with the weighting principle, participants in the unconscious thought condition were better described by the equal‐weight strategy than by the weighted‐additive strategy. In Experiment 2, in which participants were not instructed to form an impression while learning the attribute information, the use of the equal‐weight strategy was not more prevalent after unconscious thought. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Bibliographic Survey of the Activities and International Nature of Multiple Criteria Decision Making

One of the fascinating things about multiple criteria decision making (MCDM) is the degree to which the contributions that have built the field have come from all over the world. In this paper the international nature of the authorships of the 1216 refereed journal articles published on MCDM between 1987 and 1992, and the journals in which they have appeared, is examined. Also, an analysis of the 217 books and 31 journal special issues that have been published on MCDM, and 143 conferences that have been held on MCDM since the inception of the field, is similarly conducted. The paper concludes with a conference organizer, author and special issue guest editor index.     

肺多发结节与混合磨玻璃结节的应对策略解析

肺结节随访中患者面临的诸多困惑, 如对肺结节认识不足易引起患者陷入心理恐慌, 甚至焦虑、抑郁。患者及一线医生面对肺多发结节和混合密度磨玻璃结节的临床决策时更易出现偏差, 故旨在对肺多发结节和混合密度磨玻璃结节的特点及其临床决策思路进行解析, 其精准的诊断、干预时机的把握及远期疗效的考虑尤为重要,期望对临床一线工作人员及此类患者有所帮助。倡导重视医患共同决策在肺结节诊治中发挥重要作用。