Uncertainty forecasts improve weather-related decisions and attenuate the effects of forecast error

Although uncertainty is inherent in weather forecasts, explicit numeric uncertainty estimates are rarely included in public forecasts for fear that they will be misunderstood. Of particular concern are situations in which precautionary action is required at low probabilities, often the case with severe events. At present, a categorical weather warning system is used. The work reported here tested the relative benefits of several forecast formats, comparing decisions made with and without uncertainty forecasts. In three experiments, participants assumed the role of a manager of a road maintenance company in charge of deciding whether to pay to salt the roads and avoid a potential penalty associated with icy conditions. Participants used overnight low temperature forecasts accompanied in some conditions by uncertainty estimates and in others by decision advice comparable to categorical warnings. Results suggested that uncertainty information improved decision quality overall and increased trust in the forecast. Participants with uncertainty forecasts took appropriate precautionary action and withheld unnecessary action more often than did participants using deterministic forecasts. When error in the forecast increased, participants with conventional forecasts were reluctant to act. However, this effect was attenuated by uncertainty forecasts. Providing categorical decision advice alone did not improve decisions. However, combining decision advice with uncertainty estimates resulted in the best performance overall. The results reported here have important implications for the development of forecast formats to increase compliance with severe weather warnings as well as other domains in which one must act in the face of uncertainty.     

The metrics of spatial distance traversed during mental imagery

The authors conducted 2 experiments to study the metrics of spatial distance in a mental imagery task. In both experiments, participants first memorized the layout of a building containing 10 rooms with 24 objects. Participants then received mental imagery instructions and imagined how they walked through the building from one room to another. The authors manipulated Euclidean distance involved in these imaginary motions: Spatial distance measured in centimeters on the layout was either short or long. Independently, they varied categorical distance: The motions led through one room or two rooms. The time needed to imagine motions and response times to test probes indicated that both Euclidean distance and categorical distance affected mental imagery. The authors discuss the new finding of categorical distance effects in mental imagery and relate the results to earlier failures to find Euclidean distance effects in formally equivalent studies of narrative comprehension.     

A basis for bias in geographical judgments

To determine why North Americans tend to locate European cities south of North American cities at similar latitudes (Tversky, 1981), we had observers provide bearing estimates between cities in the U.S. and Europe. Earlier research using latitude estimates of these cities has indicated that each continent has several subjective regions (Friedman & Brown, 2000a). Participants judged cities from two subjectively northern regions (Milwaukee-Munich), two subjectively southern regions (Memphis-Lisbon), and the two "crossed" regions (Albuquerque-Geneva; Minneapolis-Rome). Estimates were biased only when cities from the subjectively northern regions of North America were paired with cities from the subjectively southern region of Europe. In contrast to the view that biases are derived from distorted or aligned map-like representations, the data provide evidence that the subjective representation of global geography is principally categorical. Biases in numerical location estimates of individual cities and in bearing estimates between city pairs are derived from plausible reasoning processes operating on the same categorical representations.     

语言标签和自我关联对新颖客体类别知觉的影响

类别知觉(Categorical perception)是人类最基本的认知活动之一, 探讨语言对类别知觉的影响是心理语言学领域的热门话题之一。在这个研究的3个实验中, 分别在高、低不同的语言标签表征强度下、高、低不同的客体自我关联程度下观察新颖客体类别知觉的过程。研究发现, 语言标签表征程度的增强可促进新颖客体类别知觉的右视野优势效应; 客体与自我关联程度的提高会促进左、右视野的类别知觉效应; 语言标签的表征程度和客体与自我关联程度同时增强时, 语言标签的作用依旧表现出来, 但与自我关联的影响产生权衡分配, 且其影响力并不足以产生右视野优势效应。     

Reducing probabilistic weather forecasts to the worst-case scenario: anchoring effects

Many weather forecast providers believe that forecast uncertainty in the form of the worst-case scenario would be useful for general public end users. We tested this suggestion in 4 studies using realistic weather-related decision tasks involving high winds and low temperatures. College undergraduates, given the statistical equivalent of the worst-case scenario (1 boundary of the 80% predictive interval), demonstrated biased understanding of future weather conditions compared with those given both bounds or no uncertainty information. We argue that this was due to an anchoring effect on numeric estimates, which were closer to the worst-case scenario than was warranted and increased linearly as the anchor became more extreme. In many situations tested here, anchoring in numeric estimates also extended to subsequent binary decisions, leading participants with the worst-case scenario to take action more often than did other participants. These results suggest that worst-case scenario forecasts can mislead the user. They appear to convince people that wind speeds will be higher and temperatures will be lower than what are indicated by the forecast. In addition, participants systematically "corrected" the forecast they were given. This effect was most prominent in the condition in which no uncertainty was provided, suggesting that people feel compelled to take uncertainty into account, even when it is not acknowledged by the forecast. Both the anchoring and correction biases were least evident when both bounds were provided, suggesting that balanced uncertainty leads to the best understanding of future weather conditions.     

Effect of Rater Nationality on the Relationships among Ratee Task,Contextual, and Counterproductive Behaviors and Salary Estimates

This study examined the moderating effect of rater nationality on the relationships among ratee task, contextual, and counterproductive behaviors, and rater salary estimates gauging the dollar value of overall job performance. As hypothesized, rater nationality had a significant moderating effect, such that the Lebanese sample showed stronger relationships between each of the three types of job performance and their dollar value estimates than did the American sample. In other words, results indicated that Lebanese participants made stronger salary differentiations among the different levels of task, contextual, and counterproductive performance. These results seem to suggest that Lebanese participants provided salary estimates using more of an equity approach, whereas American participants provided salary estimates using more of an equality approach. Results contribute to the growing evidence that national culture is important in evaluating job performance.     

Prototypes are attractive because they are easy on the mind

People tend to prefer highly prototypical stimuli--a phenomenon referred to as the beauty-in-averageness effect. A common explanation of this effect proposes that prototypicality signals mate value. Here we present three experiments testing whether prototypicality preference results from more general mechanisms-fluent processing of prototypes and preference for fluently processed stimuli. In two experiments, participants categorized and rated the attractiveness of random-dot patterns (Experiment 1) or common geometric patterns (Experiment 2) that varied in levels of prototypicality. In both experiments, prototypicality was a predictor of both fluency (categorization speed) and attractiveness. Critically, fluency mediated the effect of prototypicality on attractiveness, although some effect of prototypicality remained when fluency was controlled. The findings were the same whether or not participants explicitly considered the pattern's categorical membership, and whether or not categorization fluency was salient when they rated attractiveness. Experiment 3, using the psychophysiological technique of facial electromyography, confirmed that viewing abstract prototypes elicits quick positive affective reactions.     

重读对口语理解中时间选择性注意分配的影响

采用事件相关电位（ERP）技术来研究重读如何影响口语加工中早期的选择性注意分配。并进一步研究重读的这种注意调控作用是否受声调的影响。实验以单个句子为实验材料,结果发现重读比不重读条件下的关键词更早的引起一个早期负波（N1）,并且引起更大的N400。在两个时间窗口重读的效应都不受声调的调控。这些结果表明,在自然的口语理解过程中,重读能够快速的调控早期选择性注意的分配,并影响接下来的语义加工的深度。     

Processing strategy moderates the cultivation effect

This study tested the hypothesis that processing strategy moderates the effect of television viewing on social perceptions (cultivation effect). One hundred twenty‐two male and female students provided estimates of the prevalence of crime, occupations, affluence, and marital discord under one of three conditions. Some participants were induced to process heuristically (heuristic group) through instructions to provide their estimates spontaneously with little elaboration. Other participants were induced to process systematically (systematic group) through an accuracy motivation/task importance manipulation. A third (control) group received instructions to simply answer the questions. The results indicated that processing strategy moderated the cultivation effect such that cultivation effects were noted in the heuristic and control groups but not in the systematic group. These results are consistent with the notion that the cultivation effect can be explained in part as the result of heuristic processing through lack of source discounting, and they provide support for the heuristic processing model of cultivation effects.     

Effects of the global and local attention on the processing of categorical and coordinate spatial relations

Participants made categorical or coordinate spatial judgments on the global or local elements of shapes. Stimuli were composed of a horizontal line and two dots. In the Categorical task, participants judged whether the line was above or below the dots. In the Coordinate task, they judged whether the line would fit between the dots. Stimuli were made hierarchical so that the global patterns composed of a “global line” made of local dots-and-line units, and “global dot” made of a single dots-and-line unit. The results indicated that the categorical task was better performed when participants attended to the local level of the hierarchical stimuli. On the other hand, the coordinate task was better performed when they attended to the global level. These findings are consistent with computer simulation models of the attentional modulation of neuronal receptive fields’ size suggesting that (1) coordinate spatial relations are more efficiently encoded when one attends to a relatively large region of space, whereas (2) categorical spatial relations are more efficiently encoded when one attends to a relatively small region of space.     

The optimist within? Selective sampling and self-deception

The nature and existence of self-deception is controversial. On a classic conception, self-deceived individuals carry two conflicting representations of reality. Proponents of an alternative, deflationary account dispute this, arguing that putative cases of self-deception simply reflect distorted information processing. To investigate these alternatives, we adapted a paradigm from the “crowd-within” literature. Participants provided two different estimates for each of a series of incentivized questions. Half of the questions were neutral in content, while half referred to undesirable future events. Whereas the first and second estimates for neutral questions did not differ systematically, second estimates for undesirable questions were more optimistic than first estimates. This result suggests that participants were sampling selectively from an internal probability distribution when providing estimates for undesirable events, implying they had access to a less rosy representation of their future prospects than their individual estimates conveyed. In short, self-deception is real.     

Category learning and change: differences in sensitivity to information that enhances or reduces intercategory distinctions

We examined the amenability of abstractions of categories to new and relevant information. In Experiment 1, Ss formed impressions of 2 sets of numbers by periodically estimating the cumulative means of each set. During the 1st half of the procedure, the 2 means were mathematically stable. During the 2nd half of the procedure, the mean of 1 set was modified and the mean of the other set remained unchanged. We predicted and found that the resultant estimates for the modified category changed more when the mean difference between the 2 categories was enhanced than when it was reduced. Experiment 2 suggested that the accentuation effect results from a 2-stage process of category learning (Stage 1) and category change (Stage 2). Experiment 3 replicated the effect with person categories. The relevance of category accentuation is discussed with respect to the modifiability of social beliefs.     

Couple disagreement: Inevitable and healthy? Belgian and Japanese conceptions

“Couples who argue together, stay together” is a popular English saying suggesting the necessity of disagreement for a healthy and stable romantic relationship. The present study explores whether Belgian and Japanese participants similarly view couple disagreement as a necessity, and whether conceptions of disagreement have implications for partners' ideas of how to deal with disagreement. We conducted four focus groups in each culture and analyzed them using thematic analysis. The findings suggested that Belgian participants thought that partners' needs unavoidably clash. They thus saw disagreement as inevitable. In contrast, Japanese participants thought of disagreement as avoidable. To avoid disagreement, they reported that they adjusted to and accepted the differences of their partner. Consistent with these respective conceptions of disagreement, Belgian participants highlighted the importance of addressing disagreement through open communication, while Japanese participants reported to frequently engage in indirect forms of communication such as mindreading. The differences in Belgian and Japanese conceptions of disagreement reflect different cultural notions of a healthy relationship, with Belgian partners valuing independence and Japanese emphasizing interdependence in the relationship. We discuss the implications of existing research on couple disagreement, which often starts from assumptions closer to the English saying and the Belgian conceptions of disagreement.     

Contrast and accentuation effects in category learning

This study examines the accentuation of perceived intercategory differences. In Experiment 1, 2 sets of trait adjectives were presented--a neutral set and a set of either favorable traits or unfavorable traits. Ss estimated the mean favorability of each set. The mean favorability of the neutral set was then increased or decreased by adding new traits. As predicted, the estimated mean favorability of the neutral set changed more when the set became more distinct from a contextual set than when it became more similar. In Experiment 2, estimated category means were displaced away from each other (contrast effect), and they moved even farther apart when new information increased the variability of trait favorability (accentuation effect). This change was illusory because the actual category means remained constant. Experiment 3, in which trait adjectives described members of 2 novel groups, replicated Experiment 2. The relevance of contrast and accentuation effects to the development and maintenance of differentiated intergroup perceptions is discussed.     

Distortions in location memory

Memory for the location of a briefly presented target is often distorted in systematic ways. When people remember dot locations within a circular space, they typically show memory biases that appear to reflect a categorical strategy. However, memory for a target location can also be biased toward visible markers or landmarks. In the present study, we investigated the interaction of categorical and landmark effects by providing sectioning lines in a circular space. In the absence of lines, response biases showed categorical effects, whereas in the presence of lines, response biases suggested that participants used a landmark-based scheme. Possible relations between the strategies are discussed.     

Modeling external events in the three-level analysis of multiple-baseline across-participants designs: A simulation study

In this study, we focus on a three-level meta-analysis for combining data from studies using multiple-baseline across-participants designs. A complicating factor in such designs is that results might be biased if the dependent variable is affected by not explicitly modeled external events, such as the illness of a teacher, an exciting class activity, or the presence of a foreign observer. In multiple-baseline designs, external effects can become apparent if they simultaneously have an effect on the outcome score(s) of the participants within a study. This study presents a method for adjusting the three-level model to external events and evaluates the appropriateness of the modified model. Therefore, we use a simulation study, and we illustrate the new approach with real data sets. The results indicate that ignoring an external event effect results in biased estimates of the treatment effects, especially when there is only a small number of studies and measurement occasions involved. The mean squared error, as well as the standard error and coverage proportion of the effect estimates, is improved with the modified model. Moreover, the adjusted model results in less biased variance estimates. If there is no external event effect, we find no differences in results between the modified and unmodified models.     

知觉加工中存在颜色类别知觉效应的证据

对于颜色的辨别具有类别知觉效应：类间两种颜色的辨别能力比同等颜色空间距离的类内两种颜色的辨别能力更高。对于类别知觉效应的产生机制存在两种观点：知觉特性假设、语言标签假设。以往的研究范式由于实验任务涉及到工作记忆成分,被试在完成任务时会自动地对颜色命名以利于记忆,因此所得证据大多支持语言标签假设,而对知觉特性假设的支持证据则很少。本文利用目标觉察范式最大限度去掉了工作记忆成分,通过测量被试辨别两种颜色的反应时,得到了类别知觉效应。并通过语言干扰任务进一步证实在该实验范式下类别知觉效应与语言的无关性。从而,为知觉特性假设提供了证据     

多维测验项目参数的估计：基于SEM与MIRT方法的比较

作者简要回顾了SEM框架下分类数据因素分析(CCFA)模型和MIRT框架下测验题目和潜在能力的关系模型, 对两种框架下的主要参数估计方法进行了总结。通过模拟研究, 比较了SEM框架下WLSc和WLSMV估计方法与MIRT框架下MLR和MCMC估计方法的差异。研究结果表明：(1) WLSc得到参数估计的偏差最大, 且存在参数收敛的问题; (2)随着样本量增大, 各种项目参数估计的精度均提高, WLSMV方法与MLR方法得到的参数估计精度差异很小, 大多数情况下不比MCMC方法差; (3)除WLSc方法外, 随着每个维度测验题目的增多参数估计的精度逐渐增高; (4)测验维度对区分度参数和难度参数的影响较大, 而测验维度对项目因素载荷和阈值的影响相对较小; (5)项目参数的估计精度受项目测量维度数的影响, 只测量一个维度的项目参数估计精度较高。另外文章还对两种方法在实际应用中应该注意的问题提供了一些建议。     

Locus of control and the age difference in free recall from episodic memory.

The authors investigated the relation of locus of control (LOC) to age differences in free-recall memory performance. Older and younger participants completed P. C. Duttweiler's (1984) Internal Control Index (ICI) and subsequently performed free-recall memory tasks. Compared with the younger participants, the older participants exhibited poorer recall with more intrusions and uncorrected repetition errors as well as reduced categorical clustering. For the older participants with less internal LOC, recall proportion and item-pair associative recall clustering were lower than for the older participants with more internal LOC. By contrast, the younger participants did not exhibit any LOC effects in their recall performance. The results suggest that a differential memory organization deficit may underlie the age differences in free recall among individuals varying in LOC when they are performing an intentional learning task. This deficit is discussed in terms of a reduced-inhibition account of cognitive aging.     

单维项目因素分析：CCFA与IRT估计方法的比较

当观测指标变量为二分分类数据时,传统的因素分析方法不再适用。作者简要回顾了SEM框架下的分类数据因素分析模型和IRT框架下的测验题目和潜在能力的关系模型,并对两种框架下主要采用的参数估计方法进行了总结。通过两个模拟研究,比较了SEM框架下GLSc和MGLSc估计方法与IRT框架下MML/EM估计方法的差异。研究结果表明：（1）三种方法中,GLSc得到参数估计的偏差最大,MGLSc和MML/EM估计方法相差不大;（2）随着样本量增大,各种项目参数估计的精度均提高;（3）项目因素载荷和难度估计的精度受测验长度的影响;（4）项目因素载荷和区分度估计的精度受总体因素载荷（区分度）高低的影响;（5）测验项目中阈值的分布会影响参数估计的精度,其中受影响最大的是项目区分度。（6）总体来看,SEM框架下的项目参数估计精度较IRT框架下项目参数估计的精度高。此外,文章还将两种方法在实际应用中应该注意的问题提供了一些建议。