Multicategorical spline model for item response theory

Additional information contained in incorrect responses calls for a multicategorical rather than a binary analysis of multiple choice data. A nonparametric divided-by-total model for joint maximum likelihood estimation of probability-of-choice functions (for particular responses) and of latent ability is proposed. The model approximates probability functions by rational splines. Some illustrative examples of real test data analysis and the results of a Monte Carlo study are presented.The research in this paper was supported by the National Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Grants OGP0105521 and APA 320 awarded to the first and the second author, respectively. The authors are indebted to R. Melzack and A. Baker for making available the data analyzed in this paper. We would also like to thank J. McKenna and B. Cont for their assistance in editing this paper.     

A quasi-nonmetric method for multidimensional scaling VIA an extended euclidean model

An Extended Two-Way Euclidean Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) model which assumes both common and specific dimensions is described and contrasted with the standard (Two-Way) MDS model. In this Extended Two-Way Euclidean model then stimuli (or other objects) are assumed to be characterized by coordinates onR common dimensions. In addition each stimulus is assumed to have a dimension (or dimensions) specific to it alone. The overall distance between objecti and objectj then is defined as the square root of the ordinary squared Euclidean distance plus terms denoting the specificity of each object. The specificity,s _j , can be thought of as the sum of squares of coordinates on those dimensions specific to objecti, all of which have nonzero coordinatesonly for objecti. (In practice, we may think of there being just one such specific dimension for each object, as this situation is mathematically indistinguishable from the case in which there are more than one.)We further assume that _ij =F(d _ij ) +e _ij where _ij is the proximity value (e.g., similarity or dissimilarity) of objectsi andj,d _ij is the extended Euclidean distance defined above, whilee _ij is an error term assumed i.i.d.N(0, ²).F is assumed either a linear function (in the metric case) or a monotone spline of specified form (in the quasi-nonmetric case). A numerical procedure alternating a modified Newton-Raphson algorithm with an algorithm for fitting an optimal monotone spline (or linear function) is used to secure maximum likelihood estimates of the paramstatistics) can be used to test hypotheses about the number of common dimensions, and/or the existence of specific (in addition toR common) dimensions.This approach is illustrated with applications to both artificial data and real data on judged similarity of nations.     

A loss function for alpha factor analysis

Most of the factor solutions can be got by minimizing a corresponding loss function. However, up to now, a loss function for the alpha factor analysis (AFA) has not been known. The present paper establishes such a loss function for the AFA. Some analogies to the maximum likelihood factor analysis are discussed.The author is greatly indebted to Prof. Henry F. Kaiser (University of California, Berkeley) for his kind encouragement. He is also indebted to an anonymous referee ofPsychometrika for having confronted him with the problem in 1977. Financial support by the Wiener Hochschuljubiläumsstiftung is gratefully acknowledged.     

A new variable interval schedule with constant hazard rate and finite time range

We propose a new variable interval (VI) schedule that achieves constant probability of reinforcement in time while using a bounded range of intervals. By sampling each trial duration from a uniform distribution ranging from 0 to 2 T seconds, and then applying a reinforcement rule that depends linearly on trial duration, the schedule alternates reinforced and unreinforced trials, each less than 2 T seconds, while preserving a constant hazard function.     

A marginalization model for the multidimensional unfolding analysis of ranking data

A marginalization model for the multidimensional unfolding analysis of ranking data is presented. A subject samples one of a number of random points that are multivariate normally distributed. The subject perceives the distances from the point to all the stimulus points fixed in the same multidimensional space. The distances are error perturbed in this perception process. He/she produces a ranking dependent on these error-perturbed distances. The marginal probability of a ranking is obtained according to this ranking model and by integrating out the subject (ideal point) parameters, assuming the above distribution. One advantage of the model is that the individual differences are captured using the posterior probabilities of subject points. Three sets of ranking data are analyzed by the model.     

Approximations to the distribution of a test statistic in covariance structure analysis: A comprehensive study

In structural equation modelling (SEM), a robust adjustment to the test statistic or to its reference distribution is needed when its null distribution deviates from a χ² distribution, which usually arises when data do not follow a multivariate normal distribution. Unfortunately, existing studies on this issue typically focus on only a few methods and neglect the majority of alternative methods in statistics. Existing simulation studies typically consider only non-normal distributions of data that either satisfy asymptotic robustness or lead to an asymptotic scaled χ² distribution. In this work we conduct a comprehensive study that involves both typical methods in SEM and less well-known methods from the statistics literature. We also propose the use of several novel non-normal data distributions that are qualitatively different from the non-normal distributions widely used in existing studies. We found that several under-studied methods give the best performance under specific conditions, but the Satorra–Bentler method remains the most viable method for most situations.     

A new estimator of the uniqueness in factor analysis

A closed form estimator of the uniqueness (unique variance) in factor analysis is proposed. It has analytically desirable properties—consistency, asymptotic normality and scale invariance. The estimation procedure is given through the application to the two sets of Emmett's data and Holzinger and Swineford's data. The new estimator is shown to lead to values rather close to the maximum likelihood estimator.     

Some critical observations of the test information function as a measure of local accuracy in ability estimation

The test information function serves important roles in latent trait models and in their applications. Among others, it has been used as the measure of accuracy in ability estimation. A question arises, however, if the test information function is accurate enough for all meaningful levels of ability relative to the test, especially when the number of test items is relatively small (e.g., less than 50). In the present paper, using the constant information model and constant amounts of test information for a finite interval of ability, simulated data were produced for eight different levels of ability and for twenty different numbers of test items ranging between 10 and 200. Analyses of these data suggest that it is desirable to consider some modification of the test information function when it is used as the measure of accuracy in ability estimation.     

Item Response Theory with Estimation of the Latent Population Distribution Using Spline-Based Densities

The purpose of this paper is to introduce a new method for fitting item response theory models with the latent population distribution estimated from the data using splines. A spline-based density estimation system provides a flexible alternative to existing procedures that use a normal distribution, or a different functional form, for the population distribution. A simulation study shows that the new procedure is feasible in practice, and that when the latent distribution is not well approximated as normal, two-parameter logistic (2PL) item parameter estimates and expected a posteriori scores (EAPs) can be improved over what they would be with the normal model. An example with real data compares the new method and the extant empirical histogram approach.     

Estimating Optimal Weights for Compound Scores: A Multidimensional IRT Approach

A method is proposed for constructing indices as linear functions of variables such that the reliability of the compound score is maximized. Reliability is defined in the framework of latent variable modeling [i.e., item response theory (IRT)] and optimal weights of the components of the index are found by maximizing the posterior variance relative to the total latent variable variance. Three methods for estimating the weights are proposed. The first is a likelihood-based approach, that is, marginal maximum likelihood (MML). The other two are Bayesian approaches based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) computational methods. One is based on an augmented Gibbs sampler specifically targeted at IRT, and the other is based on a general purpose Gibbs sampler such as implemented in OpenBugs and Jags. Simulation studies are presented to demonstrate the procedure and to compare the three methods. Results are very similar, so practitioners may be suggested the use of the easily accessible latter method. A real-data set pertaining to the 28-joint Disease Activity Score is used to show how the methods can be applied in a complex measurement situation with multiple time points and mixed data formats.     

四参数Logistic模型潜在特质参数的Warm加权极大似然估计

本文以四参数Logistic(4-parameter Logistic,4PL)模型为研究对象,根据Warm的加权极大似然估计技巧,提出了4PL模型潜在特质参数的加权极大似然估计方法,并借助模拟研究对加权极大似然估计的性质进行验证。研究结果表明,与通常的极大似然估计和后验期望估计相比,加权极大似然估计的偏差(bias)明显减小,并且具有良好的返真性能。此外,在测试的长度较短和项目的区分度较小的情况下,加权极大似然估计依然保持了良好的统计性质,表现出更加显著的优势。     

A Thurstonian Analysis of Preference Change

This paper presents a Thurstonian model for the analysis of preference change. Preferences are expressed in the form of rankings, possibly with ties. A vector-autoregression framework is used to investigate relationships between past and current rankings. It is shown that this approach yields a parsimonious and easily interpretable representation of individual preference differences in time-dependent ranking data. A detailed analysis of the 1992 National Election Study illustrates the proposed approach.     

A maximum likelihood method for latent class regression involving a censored dependent variable

The standard tobit or censored regression model is typically utilized for regression analysis when the dependent variable is censored. This model is generalized by developing a conditional mixture, maximum likelihood method for latent class censored regression. The proposed method simultaneously estimates separate regression functions and subject membership in K latent classes or groups given a censored dependent variable for a cross-section of subjects. Maximum likelihood estimates are obtained using an EM algorithm. The proposed method is illustrated via a consumer psychology application.     

Robustness of Parameter Estimation to Assumptions of Normality in the Multidimensional Graded Response Model

A central assumption that is implicit in estimating item parameters in item response theory (IRT) models is the normality of the latent trait distribution, whereas a similar assumption made in categorical confirmatory factor analysis (CCFA) models is the multivariate normality of the latent response variables. Violation of the normality assumption can lead to biased parameter estimates. Although previous studies have focused primarily on unidimensional IRT models, this study extended the literature by considering a multidimensional IRT model for polytomous responses, namely the multidimensional graded response model. Moreover, this study is one of few studies that specifically compared the performance of full-information maximum likelihood (FIML) estimation versus robust weighted least squares (WLS) estimation when the normality assumption is violated. The research also manipulated the number of nonnormal latent trait dimensions. Results showed that FIML consistently outperformed WLS when there were one or multiple skewed latent trait distributions. More interestingly, the bias of the discrimination parameters was non-ignorable only when the corresponding factor was skewed. Having other skewed factors did not further exacerbate the bias, whereas biases of boundary parameters increased as more nonnormal factors were added. The item parameter standard errors recovered well with both estimation algorithms regardless of the number of nonnormal dimensions.     

A bayesian approach to confirmatory factor analysis

Confirmatory factor analysis is considered from a Bayesian viewpoint, in which prior information on parameter is incorporated in the analysis. An iterative algorithm is developed to obtain the Bayes estimates. A numerical example based on longitudinal data is presented. A simulation study is designed to compare the Bayesian approach with the maximum likelihood method.Computer facilities were provided by the Computer Services Center, The Chinese University of Hong Kong.     

Weighted likelihood estimation of ability in item response theory

Applications of item response theory, which depend upon its parameter invariance property, require that parameter estimates be unbiased. A new method, weighted likelihood estimation (WLE), is derived, and proved to be less biased than maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) with the same asymptotic variance and normal distribution. WLE removes the first order bias term from MLE. Two Monte Carlo studies compare WLE with MLE and Bayesian modal estimation (BME) of ability in conventional tests and tailored tests, assuming the item parameters are known constants. The Monte Carlo studies favor WLE over MLE and BME on several criteria over a wide range of the ability scale.     

Analysis of Interactions and Nonlinear Effects with Missing Data: A Factored Regression Modeling Approach Using Maximum Likelihood Estimation

Abstract

When estimating multiple regression models with incomplete predictor variables, it is necessary to specify a joint distribution for the predictor variables. A convenient assumption is that this distribution is a multivariate normal distribution, which is also the default in many statistical software packages. This distribution will in general be misspecified if predictors with missing data have nonlinear effects (e.g., x²) or are included in interaction terms (e.g., x·z). In the present article, we introduce a factored regression modeling approach for estimating regression models with missing data that is based on maximum likelihood estimation. In this approach, the model likelihood is factorized into a part that is due to the model of interest and a part that is due to the model for the incomplete predictors. In three simulation studies, we showed that the factored regression modeling approach produced valid estimates of interaction and nonlinear effects in regression models with missing values on categorical or continuous predictor variables under a broad range of conditions. We developed the R package mdmb, which facilitates a user-friendly application of the factored regression modeling approach, and present a real-data example that illustrates the flexibility of the software.     

A comparison of three simple test theory models

In very simple test theory models such as the Rasch model, a single parameter is used to represent the ability of any examinee or the difficulty of any item. Simple models such as these provide very important points of departure for more detailed modeling when a substantial amount of data are available, and are themselves of real practical value for small or even medium samples. They can also serve a normative role in test design.As an alternative to the Rasch model, or the Rasch model with a correction for guessing, a simple model is introduced which characterizes strength of response in terms of the ratio of ability and difficulty parameters rather than their difference. This model provides a natural account of guessing, and has other useful things to contribute as well. It also offers an alternative to the Rasch model with the usual correction for guessing. The three models are compared in terms of statistical properties and fits to actual data. The goal of the paper is to widen the range of minimal models available to test analysts.This research was supported by grant AP320 from the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada. The author is grateful for discussions with M. Abrahamowicz, I. Molenaar, D. Thissen, and H. Wainer.     

Estimating an unobserved component of a serial response time model

A method is developed for estimating the response time distribution of an unobserved component in a two-component serial model, assuming the components are stochastically independent. The estimate of the component's density function is constrained only to be unimodal and non-negative. Numerical examples suggest that the method can yield reasonably accurate estimates with sample sizes of 300 and, in some cases, with sample sizes as small as 100.The author wishes to thank David Kohfeld, Jim Ramsay, Jim Townsend and two anonymous referees for a number of useful and stimulating comments on an earlier version of this paper.