Chance,determinism, and unsettledness

A previously unrecognised argument against deterministic chance is introduced. The argument rests on the twin ideas that determined outcomes are settled, while chancy outcomes are unsettled, thus making cases of determined but chancy outcomes impossible. Closer attention to tacit assumptions about settledness makes available some principled lines of resistance to the argument for compatibilists about chance and determinism. Yet the costs of maintaining compatibilism may be higher with respect to this argument than with respect to existing incompatibilist arguments.

     

Free Will, Chance, and Mystery

This paper proposes a reconciliation between libertarian freedomand causal indeterminism, without relying on agent-causation asa primitive notion. I closely examine Peter van Inwagen's recentcase for free will mysterianism, which is based in part on thewidespread worry that undetermined acts are too chancy to befree. I distinguish three senses of the term chance I thenargue that van Inwagen's case for free will mystrianism fails,since there is no single construal of the term change on whichall of the premises of his argument for free will–causalindeterminism incompatibilism are true. By use of a particularevent-causal indeterminist account of free action, I support thecase for free will–indeterminism compatibilism.     

Chance, ambiguity, and psychological mindedness.

The inability to believe in chance occurrences and an intolerance of ambiguity in the external world are often the outward manifestations of poor psychological mindedness. Such attitudes are frequently accompanied by beliefs in the occult and the mystical. It is suggested that these factors be considered when an individual is being evaluated for analytic treatment.     

Chance, choice, and the future of reproduction

The evolution of reproduction has been characterized by the development of complex biological and behavioral mechanisms that serve to regulate chance events. Human reproduction has been characterized by the increasing importance of individual choice. Some contemporary manifestations of this broad trend are the high incidence of contraceptive and "proceptive" behavior among couples in Western, industrialized nations. The former behavior willingly attempts to prevent conception while the latter actively attempts to induce conception (such as concentrating intercourse around the time of ovulation). Both patterns of behavior indicate that a choice is being made. A 3-year study of 1000 women revealed proceptive behavior as the most important factor predicting occurance of conception among married couples in the United States. The general strategeis people follow while making childbearing decisions: termination, sequencing, and pre-planning form a continuum following the historical trend toward greater reproductive control. In the terminating strategy, a couple makes no decision about child bearing until the number of children they have become enough or too much. In the sequencing strategy, decisions to have children are made 1 child at a time until a satisfactory limit is reached. In the pre-planning strategy, a plan is worked out ahead of time and is subsequently carried out. As new reproductive technology is introduced and as progressive change is made in society's reproductive related values and beliefs, choice will continue to dominate chance as the highly likely trend for the future of reproduction. Surrogate maternity is just 1 example of this trend. However, these new options, which culminate in the theory and practice of "progensis," (still in its infancy), as well as offering a rich opportunity, can also incur psychological burdens on a couple. Thus, as with any kind of freedom, these developments will require care, caution and responsibility.     

Chance and choice, change and continuity--that's life

Responding to this invitation to write an autobiography, I have tried to put in some order, the jumble of memories that come to mind. There are markers of the journey--the major decisions and changes in direction, many influenced by external events. Despite turns and detours, there is also continuity of interests and behavioral style. My beginnings on a Nebraska farm were a considerable distance in place and character from my current retirement in Oregon. The trail of events was especially marked by the death of my father, early choice of psychology, military service in Germany, marriage in Paris, establishing the university clinic and clinical program at the University of Oregon, starting a school of Community Service and Public Affairs, working with Leona Tyler on books and an extensive research project, and a year going around the world with my family including a long period in India. My principal contributions to personality assessment include cross-cultural studies, development of a boredom scale, community psychology connections, many reviews, books in clinical psychology and assessment, and work with students and others who continue this important branch of psychology.