大学生对一般生活事件和意外事故的乐观和悲观偏差估计：直接和间接测量的比较

研究考查了大学生对一般生活事件和意外事故的乐观与悲观偏差,并检验不同测量方法是否会产生不同结果。通过对273名大学生进行问卷研究,结果发现：（1）在直接和间接测量时,被试对一般消极事件、意外事故存在乐观偏差,对幸免于意外事故存在悲观偏差;但对一般积极事件,被试在直接测量时出现乐观偏差,在间接测量时为悲观偏差。（2）在两种方法中,被试对意外事故的乐观偏差皆高于一般消极事件,但一般积极事件与幸免于意外事故的结果在直接测量时有显著差异,而在间接测量中差异不显著。（3）在直接测量时,消极事件的发生频率越低乐观偏差越严重,积极事件的发生频率越低则悲观偏差越严重;在间接测量中事件频率与偏差结果相关不显著。     

A Bayesian approach to mitigation of publication bias

The reliability of published research findings in psychology has been a topic of rising concern. Publication bias, or treating positive findings differently from negative findings, is a contributing factor to this “crisis of confidence,” in that it likely inflates the number of false-positive effects in the literature. We demonstrate a Bayesian model averaging approach that takes into account the possibility of publication bias and allows for a better estimate of true underlying effect size. Accounting for the possibility of bias leads to a more conservative interpretation of published studies as well as meta-analyses. We provide mathematical details of the method and examples.     

Family Treatment of Child Anxiety: Outcomes,Limitations and Future Directions

Anxiety of childhood is a common and serious condition. The past decade has seen an increase in treatment-focussed research, with recent trials tending to give greater attention to parents in the treatment process. This review examines the efficacy of family-based cognitive behaviour therapy and attempts to delineate some of the factors that might have an impact on its efficacy. The choice and timing of outcome measure, age and gender of the child, level of parental anxiety, severity and type of child anxiety and treatment format and content are scrutinised. The main conclusions are necessarily tentative, but it seems likely that Family Cognitive Behaviour Therapy (FCBT) is superior to no treatment, and, for some outcome measures, also superior to Child Cognitive Behaviour Therapy (CCBT). Where FCBT is successful, the results are consistently maintained at follow-up. It appears that where a parent is anxious, and this is not addressed, outcomes are less good. However, for children of anxious parents, FCBT is probably more effective than CCBT. What is most clear is that large, well-designed studies, examining these factors alone and in combination, are now needed.     

Problems for biomedical research at the academia-industrial interface

Throughout much of the world, universities have driven towards industrial partnerships. This collaboration, which, in the biochemical field at least, has to continue if potential benefits for patients are to be realised, has brought with it a number of problems. These include the neglect of long-term research in favour of short-term projects, the curtailing of free dissemination of research information within university departments and the biasing of results of clinical trials by the financial interests of the investigators. It is very important that governments, universities, and industry itself address these problems. Universities should monitor the amount of basic, curiosity-driven research that is being carried on, compared with that which is more short-term goal orientated. PhD students and post-doctoral fellows should be exposed to the principles of bioethics early on in their careers. Further work is necessary on the terms of research contracts to protect, on the one hand, the rights of individual scientists and, on the other, industry from rogue scientists. Where problems arise, procedures should be in place for independent reviews to be conducted by bodies such as the Medical Research Council in the UK or the National Institutes of Health in the USA. The conflict-of-interest rules recently introduced for publication in medical journals should be extended to all branches of science.     

Metacognitive Experiences and Human Judgment: The Case of Hindsight Bias and Its Debiasing

ABSTRACT— Theories of judgment have emphasized the influence of what comes to mind—the content of people's thoughts. But recent research shows that metacognitive experiences accompanying thinking, like a sense of the ease or difficulty with which information comes to mind, qualify the conclusions that people derive from thought content. The case of hindsight bias and attempts to remove that bias (debiasing) illustrate this. After an event outcome is known, people display hindsight bias by exaggerating its inevitability, believing they "knew it all along." The magnitude of hindsight bias varies with the ease or difficulty that known or alternative outcomes come to mind; the usually observed hindsight bias may even reverse when outcomes are difficult to bring to mind or increase when alternatives are difficult to bring to mind. Implications of metacognitive experiences can extend to other biases and their debiasing, as well as to how people make sense of the past more generally.     

Biases in social comparisons: Optimism or pessimism?

Social comparisons typically lead to two kinds of biases: A comparative optimism bias (i.e., a tendency for people to view themselves as more likely than others to be the beneficiaries of positive outcomes) or a comparative pessimism bias (i.e., a tendency for people to view themselves as less likely than others to be such beneficiaries); rarely are people fully calibrated in terms of how they compare to others. However, there is little systematic research on the factors that determine when a comparative optimism versus pessimism bias will occur, how they can be attenuated and whether such attenuation is always desirable. In this paper, we report four studies which demonstrate the following key results: First, we show that perceived level of control over the outcome drives whether a comparative optimism or pessimism bias will occur (Study 1). Second, an increase in perceived similarity between self and a comparison target person attenuates the comparative optimism bias in domains that people view as highly controllable (Study 2a) and attenuates the comparative pessimism bias in domains that people view as less controllable (Study 2b). Finally, we show that people are willing to work harder when they experience more comparative optimism in higher control scenarios and when they experience less comparative pessimism in lower control scenarios, illustrating that motivating people to strive harder for positive outcomes can result from exacerbated or attenuated bias, depending on the context (Study 3).     

Looking Forward: The Potential of Creativity for Social Justice and Equity (and Other Exciting Outcomes)

This brief essay argues for the importance for more work on how creativity predicts positive outcomes, with a particular emphasis on expanding our definitions of these positive outcomes. The way that creativity may lead to increased equity and social justice is used as an example of these type of potential research questions.     

Cognitive control in belief‐laden reasoning during conclusion processing: An ERP study

Belief bias is the tendency to accept conclusions that are compatible with existing beliefs more frequently than those that contradict beliefs. It is one of the most replicated behavioral findings in the reasoning literature. Recently, neuroimaging studies using functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and event‐related potentials (ERPs) have provided a new perspective and have demonstrated neural correlates of belief bias that have been viewed as supportive of dual‐process theories of belief bias. However, fMRI studies have tended to focus on conclusion processing, while ERPs studies have been concerned with the processing of premises. In the present research, the electrophysiological correlates of cognitive control were studied among 12 subjects using high‐density ERPs. The analysis was focused on the conclusion presentation phase and was limited to normatively sanctioned responses to valid–believable and valid–unbelievable problems. Results showed that when participants gave normatively sanctioned responses to problems where belief and logic conflicted, a more positive ERP deflection was elicited than for normatively sanctioned responses to nonconflict problems. This was observed from ?400 to ?200 ms prior to the correct response being given. The positive component is argued to be analogous to the late positive component (LPC) involved in cognitive control processes. This is consistent with the inhibition of empirically anomalous information when conclusions are unbelievable. These data are important in elucidating the neural correlates of belief bias by providing evidence for electrophysiological correlates of conflict resolution during conclusion processing. Moreover, they are supportive of dual‐process theories of belief bias that propose conflict detection and resolution processes as central to the explanation of belief bias.     

The clinical effectiveness of cognitive behaviour therapy: outcome for a large sample of adults treated in routine practice

There is increasing interest in questions about how far the demonstrated efficacy of psychological therapies in research trials can be translated into clinical effectiveness in routine practice. This paper summarises outcome data from several hundred patients treated with CBT in routine clinical practice in a National Health Service psychology service, and compares their outcomes with some of the published research. Although the data have flaws common in ordinary clinical practice (no untreated controls, missing data, uncontrolled pharmacotherapy, etc.), the analyses suggest that CBT in this context is an effective treatment, albeit with probably not quite such good results as it achieves in research trials. Using clinical significance statistics on standardised measures, about half of the sample reliably improved over a course of therapy, including about a third who recovered to normal range.     

Felicitometric hermeneutics: interpreting quality of life measurements

The use of quality of life (QOL) outcomes in clinical trials is increasing as a number of practical, ethical, methodological, and regulatory reasons for their use have become apparent. It is important, then, that QOL measurements and differences between QOL scores be readily interpretable. We study interpretation in two contexts: when determining QOL and when basing decisions on QOL differences. We consider both clinical situations involving individual patients and research contexts, e.g., randomized clinical trials, involving groups of patients. We note the ethical importance of such understanding: proper interpretation and communication facilitate health care decision making. Communication that facilitates interpretation is of moral significance since better communication can attenuate ethical problems and inform choices. Much of what is communication worthy about QOL assessments is determined by the particular QOL instrument used in the assessment and how it is administered. In practice, these choices will be driven by the purpose of the assessment, but, it is argued, to maximize understanding, we should combine the information garnered from traditional standardized QOL instruments, from individualized QOL assessments, and from a recently proposed dialogic paradigm, where QOL is determined by shared conversation regarding the interpretation of texts. And, while some studies can surely succeed using abbreviated methods of administration (e.g., postal surveys may suffice for certain purposes), we will focus on methods of administration involving interviewer?Crespondent interaction. We suggest that during the QOL elicitation process, interviewer and respondent should engage in a two-way conversation in order to achieve a shared understanding of the ??answers?? to QOL ??questions?? and, finally, to reach a shared interpretation of the individual??s QOL.     

Third-party payers and the cost of biomedical research

Four principal arguments have been offered in support of requiring public and private third-party payers to help fund medical research: (1) many of the costs associated with clinical trial participation are for routine care that would be reimbursed if delivered outside of a trial; (2) there is a need to promote scientific research and medical progress and lack of coverage is an impediment to enrollment; (3) to cover the costs of trials expands health care and treatment options for the sick; and (4) it is beneficial for private insurers to cover the costs associated with cancer clinical trials because doing so makes such companies more attractive to consumers. Although many see third-party-payer coverage as a victory for patients and for the future of research, requiring coverage of services provided in a trial beyond those that would be provided to a comparable patient outside the research context raises a number of concerns.     

Gendered Capital: Childhood Socialization and the ??Boy Crisis?? in Education

This study examined the effect of gender socialization on kindergarten grades using data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study- Kindergarten Cohort. The sample consisted of 6,394 children (3,177 girls; 3,217 boys) from across the United States. MANOVA and follow-up tests revealed that both boys and girls tend to participate in gender-typed activities. Girls are more likely to have positive school attitudes and exhibit positive social behavior; boys are more likely to have negative school attitudes. Regression analyses indicated that participation in ??female?? activities and positive social behavior positively affect grades; participation in ??male?? activities has no direct effect. Positive attitudes positively affect the grades of girls; negative attitudes negatively affect the grades of boys. Teacher evaluation practices are also considered.     

Not all emotions are created equal: the negativity bias in social-emotional development

There is ample empirical evidence for an asymmetry in the way that adults use positive versus negative information to make sense of their world; specifically, across an array of psychological situations and tasks, adults display a negativity bias, or the propensity to attend to, learn from, and use negative information far more than positive information. This bias is argued to serve critical evolutionarily adaptive functions, but its developmental presence and ontogenetic emergence have never been seriously considered. The authors argue for the existence of the negativity bias in early development and that it is evident especially in research on infant social referencing but also in other developmental domains. They discuss ontogenetic mechanisms underlying the emergence of this bias and explore not only its evolutionary but also its developmental functions and consequences. Throughout, the authors suggest ways to further examine the negativity bias in infants and older children, and they make testable predictions that would help clarify the nature of the negativity bias during early development.     

Humility, Lifetime Trauma, and Change in Religious Doubt Among Older Adults

Compared to research on the positive or beneficial effects of religion on health, far fewer studies have been designed to examine the potentially negative aspects of religion. The purpose of this study is to examine a potentially negative part of leading a religious life??religious doubt. More specifically, the current study was designed to assess the relationships among humility, exposure to lifetime trauma, and change in religious doubt over time. Two hypotheses were developed to explore the relationships among these constructs. The first hypothesis predicts that greater exposure to traumatic events at any point in the life course will be associated with greater doubts about religion over time. The second hypothesis proposes that the potentially deleterious effects of exposure to lifetime trauma will be buffered or offset for individuals who are more humble. Findings from a nationwide, longitudinal survey of older adults provide support for both hypotheses. This appears to be the first time that the relationship among humility, lifetime trauma, and change in religious doubt has been evaluated empirically.     

Even better than the real thing: Alternative outcome bias affects decision judgements and decision regret

Three experiments demonstrated that decisions resulting in considerable amounts of profit, but missed alternative outcomes of greater profits, were rated lower in quality and produced more regret than did decisions that returned lesser (or equal) amounts of profit but either did not miss or missed only slightly better alternatives. These effects were mediated by upward counterfactuals and moderated by participants’ orientation to the decision context. That decision evaluations were affected by the availability and magnitude of alternative outcomes rather than the positivity of actual outcomes is counter to the outcome bias effect—a bias in which decisions are rated more positively when they led to more positive outcomes (despite a priori probabilities associated with the decision outcomes). Experiment 3 demonstrated that these effects represent a bias that occurs even when it is clear that the process by which decisions were made followed rational decision processes. This research suggests that when alternative worlds are even better than the desirable outcomes experienced, affect and cognition may be more strongly linked to the magnitude of alternative realities than to obtained outcomes.     

Good or Bad,We Want it Now: Fixed‐cost Present Bias for Gains and Losses Explains Magnitude Asymmetries in Intertemporal Choice

Intertemporal tradeoffs are ubiquitous in decision making, yet preferences for current versus future losses are rarely explored in empirical research. Whereas rational‐economic theory posits that neither outcome sign (gains vs. losses) nor outcome magnitude (small vs. large) should affect delay discount rates, both do, and moreover, they interact: in three studies, we show that whereas large gains are discounted less than small gains, large losses are discounted more than small losses. This interaction can be understood through a reconceptualization of fixed‐cost present bias, which has traditionally described a psychological preference for immediate rewards. First, our results establish present bias for losses—a psychological preference to have losses over with now. Present bias thus predicts increased discounting of future gains but decreased (or even negative) discounting of future losses. Second, because present bias preferences do not scale with the magnitude of possible gains or losses, they play a larger role, relative to other motivations for discounting, for small magnitude intertemporal decisions than for large magnitude intertemporal decisions. Present bias thus predicts less discounting of large gains than small gains but more discounting of large losses than small losses. The present research is the first to demonstrate that the effect of outcome magnitude on discount rates may be opposite for gains and losses and also the first to offer a theory (an extension of present bias) and process data to explain this interaction. The results suggest that policy efforts to encourage future‐oriented choices should frame outcomes as large gains or small losses. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Re-visioning clinical research: gender and the ethics of experimental design

Since modern medicine is based substantially in clinical medical research, the flaws and ethical problems that arise in this research as it is conceived and practiced in the United States are likely to be reflected to some extent in current medicine and its practice. This paper explores some of the ways in which clinical research has suffered from an androcentric focus in its choice and definition of problems studied, approaches and methods used in design and interpretation of experiments, and theories and conclusions drawn from the research. Some examples of re-visioned research hint at solutions to the ethical dilemmas created by this biased focus; an increased number of feminists involved in clinical research may provide avenues for additional changes that would lead to improved health care for all.     

People newly in love are more responsive to positive feedback

Passionate love is associated with increased activity in dopamine-rich regions of the brain. Increased dopamine in these regions is associated with a greater tendency to learn from reward in trial-and-error learning tasks. This study examined the prediction that individuals who were newly in love would be better at responding to reward (positive feedback). In test trials, people who were newly in love selected positive outcomes significantly more often than their single (not in love) counterparts but were no better at the task overall. This suggests that people who are newly in love show a bias toward responding to positive feedback, which may reflect a general bias towards reward-seeking.     

乐观偏差的内隐效应

乐观偏差是一个普遍存在的现象。采用Greenwald的内隐联想测验测验（IAT）方法和Inquisit专业软件,以60名大学生为被试对乐观偏差进行了考察。结果发现：乐观偏差存在内隐效应;乐观偏差的内隐效应在性别上没有差异。     

Using dual-criteria methods to supplement visual inspection: Replication and extension

The dual-criteria and conservative dual-criteria methods effectively supplement visual analysis with both simulated and published datasets. However, extant research evaluating the probability of observing false positive outcomes with published data may be affected by case selection bias and publication bias. Thus, the probability of obtaining false positive outcomes using these methods with data collected in the course of clinical care is unknown. We extracted baseline data from clinical datasets using a consecutive controlled case-series design and calculated the proportion of false positive outcomes for baseline phases of various lengths. Results replicated previous findings from Lanovaz, Huxley, and Dufour (2017), as the proportion of false positive outcomes generally decreased as the number of points in Phase B (but not Phase A) increased using both methods. Extending these findings, results also revealed differences in the rate of false positive outcomes across different types of baselines.