Academic decision making and prospect theory

Two studies are reported that investigate the applicability of prospect theory to college students' academic decision making. Exp. 1 failed to provide support for the risk-seeking portion of the fourfold pattern predicted by prospect theory but did find the greater weighting of losses over gains. Using a more sensitive dependent measure, in Exp. 2 the results of the first experiment were replicated in terms of the gain-loss effect and also found some support for the fourfold pattern in the interaction between probabilities and gain versus loss. The greatest risk-seeking was found in the high probability loss condition.     

Multialternative decision field theory: a dynamic connectionist model of decision making

The authors interpret decision field theory (J. R. Busemeyer & J. T. Townsend, 1993) as a connectionist network and extend it to accommodate multialternative preferential choice situations. This article shows that the classic weighted additive utility model (see R. L. Keeney & H. Raiffa, 1976) and the classic Thurstone preferential choice model (see L. L. Thurstone, 1959) are special cases of this new multialternative decision field theory (MDFT), which also can emulate the search process of the popular elimination by aspects (EBA) model (see A. Tversky, 1969). The new theory is unique in its ability to explain several central empirical results found in the multialternative preference literature with a common set of principles. These empirical results include the similarity effect, the attraction effect, and the compromise effect, and the complex interactions among these three effects. The dynamic nature of the model also implies strong testable predictions concerning the moderating effect of time pressure on these three effects.     

Decision making, movement planning and statistical decision theory

We discuss behavioral studies directed at understanding how probability information is represented in motor and economic tasks. By formulating the behavioral tasks in the language of statistical decision theory, we can compare performance in equivalent tasks in different domains. Subjects in traditional economic decision-making tasks often misrepresent the probability of rare events and typically fail to maximize expected gain. By contrast, subjects in mathematically equivalent movement tasks often choose movement strategies that come close to maximizing expected gain. We discuss the implications of these different outcomes, noting the evident differences between the source of uncertainty and how information about uncertainty is acquired in motor and economic tasks.     

The semantic side of decision making

The research reported in this paper follows the perspective that decision making is a meaningful act that conveys information. Furthermore, the potential meanings associated with decision options may affect the decisions themselves. This idea is examined in the contexts of compensation, donation, and exchange. In general, judgments were relation dependent and meaning dependent. Furthermore, the results show nonmonotonicities and limited substitutability in a pattern that challenges straightforward ways of mapping decisions onto a common currency of utility.     

Computer-augmented decision making

The principal judgmental components of multiattribute decision making are examined here with specific reference to how these components can be captured electronically. Once captured, a function, rule, or algorithm may be executed for the integration of this information and the selection of the optimal alternative(s). Two kinds of algorithms are discussed: one based on linear models, the other on fuzzy-set theory and ratio scaling. With on-line support and certain assumptions about human biases (which lead to nonoptimal decisions), the quality of decisions can be enhanced considerably. The principal concerns are with end-user acceptance of computer augmented decisions.     

The majority rule in individual decision making

This research investigates an understudied decision heuristic, the majority rule. By using the rule, decision makers choose the option superior on most of the available cues. Cues are broadly defined, including advisors and attributes. We propose that decision makers are more likely to use the majority rule when encouraged to employ intra-cue comparison as opposed to intra-option integration, and that their choices are influenced by factors that influence which option appears majority superior. We corroborate the two propositions in four studies. In Studies 1 and 2, we explore two factors that moderate use of the majority rule through facilitating intra-cue comparison or intra-option integration—response mode and information display format. In Studies 3 and 4, we explore two factors that influence choice through influencing which option appears majority-superior—cue-unpacking and cue-regrouping.     

Spiking Phineas Gage: a neurocomputational theory of cognitive-affective integration in decision making

The authors present a neurological theory of how cognitive information and emotional information are integrated in the nucleus accumbens during effective decision making. They describe how the nucleus accumbens acts as a gateway to integrate cognitive information from the ventromedial prefrontal cortex and the hippocampus with emotional information from the amygdala. The authors have modeled this integration by a network of spiking artificial neurons organized into separate areas and used this computational model to simulate 2 kinds of cognitive-affective integration. The model simulates successful performance by people with normal cognitive-affective integration. The model also simulates the historical case of Phineas Gage as well as subsequent patients whose ability to make decisions became impeded by damage to the ventromedial prefrontal cortex.     

The role of attitudes in memory-based decision making

Frequently, considerable knowledge of the attributes of decision alternatives is available in memory so as to permit a thoughtful and deliberate choice. However, in many instances, individuals neglect to use such knowledge and instead rely on "attitude-based" strategy to make a memory-based decision. The findings from two experiments suggest that as to the motivation to make a correct decision or the opportunity to use the available attribute knowledge decreases, the likelihood that attitudes will guide a memory-based decision increases. The findings illustrate the functional role attitudes play in guiding decisions and behavior. By providing a ready means of evaluating choice alternatives, attitudes enable an individual to make a decision relatively quickly and effortlessly.     

The place of prudence in medical decision making

In the world of practical affairs in general, no less than in the matter of medicalethical decision making, there is place for the possession of the classical virtue of prudence. Most persons involved in making such decisions are interested exclusively in solving a case, and ignore the importance of growing in virtue and character at the same time while having their decision reflect prudential reasoning. A study of the virtue of prudence shows that it is a much misunderstood virtue, and requires deeper penetration into its meaning to grasp its place in humanizing medical decisions.     

Numeracy and decision making

A series of four studies explored how the ability to comprehend and transform probability numbers relates to performance on judgment and decision tasks. On the surface, the tasks in the four studies appear to be widely different; at a conceptual level, however, they all involve processing numbers and the potential to show an influence of affect. Findings were consistent with highly numerate individuals being more likely to retrieve and use appropriate numerical principles, thus making themselves less susceptible to framing effects, compared with less numerate individuals. In addition, the highly numerate tended to draw different (generally stronger or more precise) affective meaning from numbers and numerical comparisons, and their affective responses were more precise. Although generally helpful, this tendency may sometimes lead to worse decisions. The less numerate were influenced more by competing, irrelevant affective considerations. Analyses showed that the effect of numeracy was not due to general intelligence. Numerical ability appears to matter to judgments and decisions in important ways.     

Dynamic multi-criteria decision making

Most medium-and long-term decision making in industry and government can be viewed as dynamic multi-criteria decision making (MCDM), in which the decision makers are free to alter the emphasis placed on each objective in the light of developing circumstances. In this paper the problem of time-dependent weights in MCDM is discussed and an analysis of empirical data associated with dynamic decision making is presented.     

Personality components of decision making

Summary Relationships between proneness to behavioral stereotypy (Ster) measured in a problem-solving task (electromaze) and decision-making behavior (under conditions of risk and certainty, chance and skill) were investigated using 64 subjects. Subjects more stereotyped in the electromaze (Ster ⁺) tended to also be more stereotyped in their decision-making behavior. Ster was not related to extraversion, neuroticism, rigidity or overall electromaze performance, but Ster ^– more often required an excessive number of trials for task solution. The decision making of males tended to be more stereotyped. The results were discussed in terms of the construct validity and theoretical interpretation of Ster.

---

Zusammenfassung Es wurden Beziehungen zwischen der Neigung zur Verhaltensstereotypie (Ster), die bei einer Problemlösungsaufgabe gemessen wurde, und dem Entscheidungsverhalten (mit und ohne Risiko, wobei der Erfolg sowohl durch den Zufall wie auch durch das Können der Vp bestimmt wurde) untersucht. Vpn, die sich im Electromaze stereotyp verhielten (Ster ⁺), verhielten sich auch bei ihren Entscheidungen stereotyp. Es wurden keine Beziehungen zwischen Ster und den Variablen Extraversion, Neurotizismus, Rigidität und Gesamtleistung im Electromaze gefunden, jedoch benötigten Ster ^– häufiger eine extrem lange Serie von Versuchen zur Aufgabenlösung. Die männliche Vpn neigten stärker dazu, in Entscheidungssituationen stereotyp zu reagieren. Die Ergebnisse wurden vom Standpunkt der Konstruktvalidität und der theoretischen Grundlage der Ster aus diskutiert.