Perception of randomness: On the time of streaks

People tend to think that streaks in random sequential events are rare and remarkable. When they actually encounter streaks, they tend to consider the underlying process as non-random. The present paper examines the time of pattern occurrences in sequences of Bernoulli trials, and shows that among all patterns of the same length, a streak is the most delayed pattern for its first occurrence. It is argued that when time is of essence, how often a pattern is to occur (mean time, or, frequency) and when a pattern is to first occur (waiting time) are different questions and bear different psychological relevance. The waiting time statistics may provide a quantitative measure to the psychological distance when people are expecting a probabilistic event, and such measure is consistent with both of the representativeness and availability heuristics in people’s perception of randomness. We discuss some of the recent empirical findings and suggest that people’s judgment and generation of random sequences may be guided by their actual experiences of the waiting time statistics.     

The intentional mind and the hot hand: Perceiving intentions makes streaks seem likely to continue

People can appear inconsistent in their intuitions about sequences of repeated events. Sometimes people believe such sequences will continue (the “hot hand”), and sometimes people believe they will reverse (the “gambler’s fallacy”). These contradictory intuitions can be partly explained by considering the perceived intentionality of the agent generating the streak. The intuition that streaks will continue (reverse) should emerge in contexts involving agents that are perceived to be intentional (unintentional), and should be most common among those who are most inclined to attribute intentions to other agents. Four studies support these predictions, identifying both situational and dispositional determinants of the perceived continuity of streaks. Discussion focuses on the foundational nature of intentionality for perceptions of interdependence between events, the relationship between these findings and existing theoretical accounts, and the inverse possibility that people use perceptions of streakiness as a cue for an agent’s intentionality.     

Self-Other Discrepancies in Waiting Time Decisions

Both anecdotal evidence and recently reported research suggest that people are risk-averse when faced with waiting time decisions. Four studies investigate whether there is a self-other discrepancy in how people make waiting time decisions themselves and how they predict others will make similar decisions. People are found to believe that others have valuations of time similar to their own. However, when faced with alternatives that involve risk in the duration of the wait, the results point to a self-other discrepancy, in that people report greater risk-aversion themselves than they think others would. Further, when faced with waiting time gains, people are themselves more risk-averse than they think others would be. Conversely, when faced with waiting time losses, people are themselves more risk-seeking than they think others would be. Overall, the results are consistent with the recently proposed risk-as-feelings hypothesis.     

心理距离与建构水平的双向作用关系

心理距离概念源于时间建构理论,以自我为中心,参照点是此时此地自己的直接经验,并沿不同维度向外扩展,形成通常所认为的时间、空间、社会距离和假设性四个维度。本文述评了心理距离与建构水平的双向作用关系及其产生原因,即远心理距离使人采用核心、去背景化特征表征事物,近心理距离使人采用外围、背景化特征表征事物;反之,高水平建构使人感知到远心理距离,低水平建构使人感知到近心理距离。未来研究应关注非自我参照点的客观距离与建构水平的关系,以及心理距离与建构水平关系的心理物理学研究等。     

Randomness in retrospect: Exploring the interactions between memory and randomness cognition

People tend to believe that sequences of random events produce fewer and shorter streaks than is actually the case. Although this error has been demonstrated repeatedly and in many forms, nearly all studies of randomness cognition have focused on how people think about random events occurring in the present or future. This article examines how our biased beliefs about randomness interact with properties of memory to influence our judgments about and memory for past random events. We explore this interaction by examining how beliefs about randomness affect our memory for random events and how certain properties of memory alter our tendency to categorize events as random. Across three experiments, we demonstrate an interaction between randomness cognition and three well-established but distinct properties of memory: (1) the reconstructive nature of memory, (2) primacy and recency effects, and (3) duration neglect. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.     

The role of attention in eye-movement awareness

People are unable to accurately report on their own eye movements most of the time. Can this be explained as a lack of attention to the objects we fixate? Here, we elicited eye-movement errors using the classic oculomotor capture paradigm, in which people tend to look at sudden onsets even when they are irrelevant. In the first experiment, participants were able to report their own errors on about a quarter of the trials on which they occurred. The aim of the second experiment was to assess what differentiates errors that are detected from those that are not. Specifically, we estimated the relative influence of two possible factors: how long the onset distractor was fixated (dwell time), and a measure of how much attention was allocated to the onset distractor. Longer dwell times were associated with awareness of the error, but the measure of attention was not. The effect of the distractor identity on target discrimination reaction time was similar whether or not the participant was aware they had fixated the distractor. The results suggest that both attentional and oculomotor capture can occur in the absence of awareness, and have important implications for our understanding of the relationship between attention, eye movements, and awareness.     

Streaks in skilled performance

Experiments in golf putting and darts demonstrated that skilled performance is streaky. The tendency for outcome sequences to form streaks was greatest when the task difficulty was such that about half the trials were successful. Mixtures of the two activities were also streaky, even when periodic interruption made the individual components resemble a random Bernoulli process. Formal models of sequence structure revealed that waves in hit rate are associated with the appearance of streaks.     

Sound changes that lead to seeing longer-lasting shapes

To survive, people must construct an accurate representation of the world around them. There is a body of research on visual scene analysis, and a largely separate literature on auditory scene analysis. The current study follows up research from the smaller literature on audiovisual scene analysis. Prior work demonstrated that when there is an abrupt size change to a moving object, observers tend to see two objects rather than one—the abrupt visual change enhances visible persistence of the briefly presented different-sized object. Moreover, if a sequence of tones accompanies the moving object, visible persistence is enhanced if the tone frequency suddenly changes at the same time that the object’s size changes. Here, we show that although a sound change must occur at roughly the same time as a visual change to enhance visible persistence, there is a fairly wide time frame during which the sound change can occur. In addition, the impact of a sound change on visible persistence is not simply matter of the physical pattern: The same pattern of sound can enhance visible persistence or not, depending on how the pattern is itself perceived. Specifically, a change in a tone’s frequency can enhance visible persistence when it accompanies a visual size change, but the same frequency change will not do so if the shift is embedded in a larger pattern that makes the change merely a continuation of alternating frequencies. The current study supports a scene analysis process that is both multimodal and actively constructive.     

The psychological cost of waiting

The study of any problem involving waiting situations invariably assumes that people dislike having to wait. The analysis of queueing problems usually prescribes that some costs should be associated with the time people spend waiting to be served. These are usually considered to be of an economic nature, though the existence of other costs of a psychological nature is accepted. It is generally accepted that after having to wait for a certain amount of time, anxiety and stress start to build up in an individual, due both to the sense of waste and the uncertainty involved in a waiting situation. This work provides a theoretical basis for analysing this building up process as it occurs during the waiting period. It is proved that, under very general conditions, the resulting psychological stress accumulated during the process is a marginal increasing function of the waiting time, and some strategies to minimise it are developed. The results obtained give theoretical support to the usual assumptions underlying the development of systems to provide “real time” information to people in waiting situations. This is especially important in the operation of public transportation systems. The results also provide theoretical support to the “convex” treatment usually given to the waiting cost function in queueing problems.     

Temporal and causal order effects in thinking about what might have been

When people think counterfactually about what might have been different for a sequence of events, they are influenced by the order in which the events occurred. They tend to mentally undo the most recent event in a temporal sequence of two events. But they tend to mentally undo the first event in a causal sequence of four events. We report the results of two experiments that show that the temporal and causal order effects are not dependent on the number of events in the sequence. Our first experiment, with 300 participants, shows that the temporal order effect occurs for sequences with four events as well as for sequences with two events. Our second experiment, with 372 participants, shows that the causal order effect occurs for sequences with two events as well as for sequences with four events. We discuss the results in terms of the mental representations that people construct of temporal and causal sequences.     

Dynamics of waiting in pigeons

Two experiments used response-initiated delay schedules to test the idea that when food reinforcement is available at regular intervals, the time an animal waits before its first operant response (waiting time) is proportional to the immediately preceding interfood interval (linear waiting; Wynne & Staddon, 1988). In Experiment 1 the interfood intervals varied from cycle to cycle according to one of four sinusoidal sequences with different amounts of added noise. Waiting times tracked the input cycle in a way which showed that they were affected by interfood intervals earlier than the immediately preceding one. In Experiment 2 different patterns of long and short interfood intervals were presented, and the results implied that waiting times are disproportionately influenced by the shortest of recent interfood intervals. A model based on this idea is shown to account for a wide range of results on the dynamics of timing behavior.     

情景预见对跨期决策的影响机制

为了探究情景预见对跨期决策的影响机制, 研究采用延迟折扣任务范式, 检验了在情景预见对跨期决策的影响中延迟时间知觉起到的中介作用。两个实验分别操纵了情景预见中未来事件与自我有关的信息和未来事件的情绪特征, 结果均发现情景预见通过改变个体对延迟等待时间的时距知觉影响了跨期决策。想象与自己、与母亲有关的未来事件, 想象积极、中性情绪效价的未来事件都使得被试将延迟等待时间知觉为较短的时间段, 更倾向于选择延迟奖励。想象消极情绪效价的未来事件使得被试将延迟等待时间知觉为较长的时间段, 更加偏好即时奖励。本研究有助于增进人们对情景预见影响跨期决策现象的理解。     

Adult age differences in the rate of learning serial patterns: evidence from direct and indirect tests.

Subjects performed a serial reaction time task (adopted from Nissen & Bullemer, 1987) that contained a repeating pattern of spatial locations. In Experiment 1, following 20 repetitions of a 10- or 16-element pattern, reaction time was equally disrupted for both younger and older people when the sequence became random. In Experiment 2, the response times for subjects encountering the 10-element pattern were compared with those of subjects encountering a random sequence. These response time functions diverged at the same point in training for the 2 age groups. Thus, on this indirect measure of response time facilitation, both experiments revealed age similarity in the rate of pattern learning. In contrast, on a subsequent direct test of pattern learning that required prediction, the younger people earned a higher percentage correct score than the older in both experiments. Age-related dissociations between direct and indirect measures of learning and comparisons with memory-impaired populations are discussed.     

When Narrative Transportation Narrows Attention: Changes in Attentional Focus During Suspenseful Film Viewing

The construct of narrative transportation captures the psychological processes that occur when people experience an engaging narrative. Attention is an essential component of this construct: People often report feeling that they have focused attention into a narrative world, and disengaged attention from the physical environment. The goal of our research was to test if people’s attention is captured in a dynamic fashion over the course of narrative experiences. To achieve this goal, we used excerpts from narrative films. One way in which filmmakers command viewers’ attention is by generating suspense, which arises when viewers confront potential negative outcomes. In our experiments, we tested the hypothesis that hot spots, moments at which potential negative outcomes are emphasized, will narrow the viewer’s attentional focus compared to cold spots, moments that do not emphasize negative outcomes. We measured attentional tuning through latencies in reaction time to audio probes as participants viewed suspenseful film excerpts. We also administered post-viewing recognition memory tests for still images taken from hot and cold spots. Across three experiments, participants missed more probes and exhibited slower reaction times during suspenseful hot spots than cold spots. These findings provide evidence for changes in attentional tuning as people view film narratives.     

Subjective randomness and natural scene statistics

Accounts of subjective randomness suggest that people consider a stimulus random when they cannot detect any regularities characterizing the structure of that stimulus. We explored the possibility that the regularities people detect are shaped by the statistics of their natural environment. We did this by testing the hypothesis that people’s perception of randomness in two-dimensional binary arrays (images with two levels of intensity) is inversely related to the probability with which the array’s pattern would be encountered in nature. We estimated natural scene probabilities for small binary arrays by tabulating the frequencies with which each pattern of cell values appears. We then conducted an experiment in which we collected human randomness judgments. The results show an inverse relationship between people’s perceived randomness of an array pattern and the probability of the pattern appearing in nature.     

The ordinary

This paper discusses Peter Lomas's work in the context of the concepts of ‘ordinary people’ and ‘ordinary language’. Obsessions about whether a person is ordinary or not tend to occur in people who are disturbed. Psychoanalysts use the special language of mechanics to explain the phenomena they observe in the consulting room. In this paper it is argued that ordinary language, our mother tongue, is a better way of understanding people. In his work as a psychotherapist and writer, Peter Lomas found more insight in the ordinary language of literature than he did in theory.     

Solving the (Real) Other Minds Problem

People care about others’ thoughts, feelings, and intentions but can have considerable difficulty reading others’ minds accurately. Recent advances in understanding how people make such inferences provide significant insight into when people are likely to be reasonably accurate mind readers and when they are not. People tend to reason about others’ mental states by starting with their own and only subsequently adjusting that egocentric default to accommodate differences between themselves and others. Such adjustments tend to be insufficient, rendering final estimates egocentrically biased. When more information about others is available, people tend to rely on existing stereotypes or other expectations to intuit others’ mental states. Systematic errors resulting either from excessive egocentrism or inaccurate expectations can lead to miscommunication, misunderstanding, and social conflict, but these biases also suggest useful strategies for improving mind reading in everyday life.     

真诚型领导能否打破员工沉默?一个有调节的中介模型

本文以进化心理学理论和个体-情景交互理论为基础,并以河南省一家国营企业的222名员工为样本,检验了真诚型领导行为抑制员工沉默行为的影响模型。研究结果表明:真诚型领导行为对员工沉默行为具有显著的负向影响;员工的心理安全感在真诚型领导行为和员工沉默行为之间起着中介作用;员工的外向性和责任感越高,心理安全感与员工沉默行为之间的负向联系的就越强,同时心理安全感的中介效应也越强。本文最后探讨了研究的理论和实践意义以及未来的研究方向。。     

Adult attachment and dating strategies: How do insecure people attract mates?

When asked to choose among secure or insecurely attached partner prototypes, research shows that people tend to select secure individuals as their first choice. Despite this pattern, not everyone chooses secure partners in reality. The goal of this study was to examine the ways in which insecure individuals present themselves that might make them attractive to others. To achieve this goal, participants were led to believe that they were interacting with a possible date. That insecure individuals presented themselves as warm, engaging, and humorous people when communicating with potential mates were found. These findings suggest that insecure people have numerous dating tactics and positive qualities that they display to win over romantic partners.     

In search of the organismic valuing process: the human tendency to move towards beneficial goal choices

Abstract We attempted to test Rogers' (1951) concept of the organismic valuing process (OVP) by assessing changes in peoples' goal choices over time. When changes occur, are they more or less random, or do people tend to move towards goals that are more likely to be beneficial, both for themselves and others? “Beneficial” goals were defined as goals typically associated with subjective well‐being (SWB) and with prosocial behavior—specifically, we focused on the distinction between intrinsic and extrinsic goal contents ( Kasser & Ryan, 1996 ). In three studies, participants tended to move towards intrinsic goals and/or away from extrinsic goals over periods ranging from 20 minutes to 6 weeks. These changes were not reducible to social desirability nor to the differing motives underlying differing goal contents, did not vary for persons of different value‐types, and had not changed when participants were retested a third time. We conclude that people may have a positive bias toward changing their minds in directions most likely to be SWB enhancing.