行为决策中诱饵效应的认知加工机制

在原选项集中加入一个诱饵选项能够使人们的选择发生改变, 这就是诱饵效应。研究者发现可以通过设置相似诱饵、妥协诱饵、吸引诱饵以及幽灵诱饵等达到诱导决策者选择目标选项的目的。当前, 很多研究探索了诱饵效应的认知加工机制, 有研究者基于启发式加工和分析式加工的视角开展研究, 也有研究者从维度加工和选项加工的视角对此进行探索。诱饵效应的认知加工过程受到年龄、后悔情绪、决策形式以及时间压力等因素的影响。未来的研究需要构建适用于各类诱饵效应的统一的认知加工机制模型, 探索知觉在诱饵效应形成过程中的基础性作用, 探索个体的决策风格对不同类型诱饵效应的影响, 并通过合理利用诱饵效应助推社会发展。     

Hierarchical models of simple mechanisms underlying confidence in decision making

Choice confidence is a central measure in psychological decision research, often being reported on a probabilistic scale. Simple mechanisms that describe the psychological processes underlying choice confidence, including those based on error and confirmation biases, have typically received support via fits to data averaged over subjects. While averaged data ease model development, they can also destroy important aspects of the confidence data distribution. In this paper, we develop a hierarchical model of raw confidence judgments using the beta distribution, and we implement two simple confidence mechanisms within it. We use Bayesian methods to fit the hierarchical model to data from a two-alternative confidence experiment, and we use a variety of Bayesian tools to diagnose shortcomings of the simple mechanisms that are overlooked when applied to averaged data. Bugs code for estimating the models is also supplied.     

Impact of conceptions of ability on self-regulatory mechanisms and complex decision making

Tested the hypothesis that induced conceptions of ability as a stable entity or as an acquirable skill would affect self-regulatory mechanisms governing performance in a simulated organization. Ss served as managerial decision makers in which they had to match employees to subfunctions and to discover and apply managerial rules to achieve a difficult level of organizational performance. Those who performed the challenging managerial task under an entity conception of ability suffered a loss in perceived self-efficacy, lowered their organizational goals, and became less efficient in their analytic strategies. Ss who managed the organization under an acquirable skill conception of ability sustained their perceived self-efficacy, set challenging organizational goals, and used analytic strategies effectively. These divergences in self-regulatory factors were accompanied by substantial differences in organizational performance. Path analysis revealed that perceived self-efficacy had both a direct effect on organizational performance and an indirect effect through its influence on analytic strategies. Personal goals also affected organizational performance through the mediation of analytic strategies. The relation of prior organizational performance to subsequent performance was mediated entirely by the combined influence of the self-regulatory factors.     

Computer-augmented decision making

The principal judgmental components of multiattribute decision making are examined here with specific reference to how these components can be captured electronically. Once captured, a function, rule, or algorithm may be executed for the integration of this information and the selection of the optimal alternative(s). Two kinds of algorithms are discussed: one based on linear models, the other on fuzzy-set theory and ratio scaling. With on-line support and certain assumptions about human biases (which lead to nonoptimal decisions), the quality of decisions can be enhanced considerably. The principal concerns are with end-user acceptance of computer augmented decisions.     

Neuro-cognitive mechanisms of decision making in joint action: a human-robot interaction study

In this paper we present a model for action preparation and decision making in cooperative tasks that is inspired by recent experimental findings about the neuro-cognitive mechanisms supporting joint action in humans. It implements the coordination of actions and goals among the partners as a dynamic process that integrates contextual cues, shared task knowledge and predicted outcome of others’ motor behavior. The control architecture is formalized by a system of coupled dynamic neural fields representing a distributed network of local but connected neural populations. Different pools of neurons encode task-relevant information about action means, task goals and context in the form of self-sustained activation patterns. These patterns are triggered by input from connected populations and evolve continuously in time under the influence of recurrent interactions. The dynamic model of joint action is evaluated in a task in which a robot and a human jointly construct a toy object. We show that the highly context sensitive mapping from action observation onto appropriate complementary actions allows coping with dynamically changing joint action situations.     

Numeracy and decision making

A series of four studies explored how the ability to comprehend and transform probability numbers relates to performance on judgment and decision tasks. On the surface, the tasks in the four studies appear to be widely different; at a conceptual level, however, they all involve processing numbers and the potential to show an influence of affect. Findings were consistent with highly numerate individuals being more likely to retrieve and use appropriate numerical principles, thus making themselves less susceptible to framing effects, compared with less numerate individuals. In addition, the highly numerate tended to draw different (generally stronger or more precise) affective meaning from numbers and numerical comparisons, and their affective responses were more precise. Although generally helpful, this tendency may sometimes lead to worse decisions. The less numerate were influenced more by competing, irrelevant affective considerations. Analyses showed that the effect of numeracy was not due to general intelligence. Numerical ability appears to matter to judgments and decisions in important ways.     

Dynamic multi-criteria decision making

Most medium-and long-term decision making in industry and government can be viewed as dynamic multi-criteria decision making (MCDM), in which the decision makers are free to alter the emphasis placed on each objective in the light of developing circumstances. In this paper the problem of time-dependent weights in MCDM is discussed and an analysis of empirical data associated with dynamic decision making is presented.     

Personality components of decision making

Summary Relationships between proneness to behavioral stereotypy (Ster) measured in a problem-solving task (electromaze) and decision-making behavior (under conditions of risk and certainty, chance and skill) were investigated using 64 subjects. Subjects more stereotyped in the electromaze (Ster ⁺) tended to also be more stereotyped in their decision-making behavior. Ster was not related to extraversion, neuroticism, rigidity or overall electromaze performance, but Ster ^– more often required an excessive number of trials for task solution. The decision making of males tended to be more stereotyped. The results were discussed in terms of the construct validity and theoretical interpretation of Ster.

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Zusammenfassung Es wurden Beziehungen zwischen der Neigung zur Verhaltensstereotypie (Ster), die bei einer Problemlösungsaufgabe gemessen wurde, und dem Entscheidungsverhalten (mit und ohne Risiko, wobei der Erfolg sowohl durch den Zufall wie auch durch das Können der Vp bestimmt wurde) untersucht. Vpn, die sich im Electromaze stereotyp verhielten (Ster ⁺), verhielten sich auch bei ihren Entscheidungen stereotyp. Es wurden keine Beziehungen zwischen Ster und den Variablen Extraversion, Neurotizismus, Rigidität und Gesamtleistung im Electromaze gefunden, jedoch benötigten Ster ^– häufiger eine extrem lange Serie von Versuchen zur Aufgabenlösung. Die männliche Vpn neigten stärker dazu, in Entscheidungssituationen stereotyp zu reagieren. Die Ergebnisse wurden vom Standpunkt der Konstruktvalidität und der theoretischen Grundlage der Ster aus diskutiert.

     

Knowledge management in decision making and decision support

A knowledge-oriented view of decisions and decision making is introduced, as a complement to classical perspectives and as a contribution of under-standing computer-based possibilities for relaxing strains on decision makers. This perspective includes a model of knowledge management activities performed by a decision maker and a taxonomy of knowledge types. It leads to a characterization of decision-support-system purpose, traits, and potentials that offers a basis for new research into computer-based possibilities for knowledge management. Clyde W. Holsapple holds the Rosenthal Endowed Chair in Management Information Systems and is Professor of Decision Science and Information Systems at the College of Business and Economics, University of Kentucky.     

Counterfactual thinking and decision making

Recent research on counterfactual thinking is discussed in terms of its implications for decision making. Against a backdrop of the functional benefits of counterfactual thinking, two distinct types of bias, one liberal and one conservative, are discussed. Counterfactuals may cause decision makers to become liberally biased (i.e., capricious) in terms of tactics, but conservatively biased (i.e., rigid) in terms of long-term strategy. That is, counterfactuals may lead to short-term corrective changes that are needless and costly, but they may also lead to long-term overconfidence, blinding the decision maker to possible beneficial strategic adjustments. Recent research on counterfactual thinking, which is inherently multidisciplinary, is reviewed in light of a theoretical structure that posits two mechanisms by which counterfactual effects occur: contrast effects and causal inferences.     

一种新决策模型——量子决策模型

近10年以来, 一些学者基于量子理论研究思想与方法探索出了量子决策模型。由于该模型独特的理论结构, 它可被用于解释传统决策理论所难以解释的问题, 尤其是个体在不确定情况下的决策行为。该模型解释了诸如分离效应、分类决策的干涉效应以及合取谬误等传统决策模型很难解释的问题, 研究者已经证实其中一种称为量子问题等式的决策模型可以精确地预测决策中的顺序效应。作为一个有助于分析心理学中决策现象的新研究领域, 量子决策模型具有深入研究的理论意义和实践意义。     

Models for deferred decision making

Deferred decision theory assumes two simple hypotheses, observations that are purchased sequentially, losses for incorrect terminal decisions, and a constant loss per observation which may depend on the true hypothesis. After every observation, the decision maker may either make a terminal decision and incur a terminal loss if he is incorrect or purchase another observation; his objective is to minimize subjectively expected loss.     

Behavior analysis and decision making

Behavior analysts have developed powerful methodologies to assess central phenomena in areas that have been dominated by cognitive psychologists. Advances in instructional control, stimulus equivalence, choice, rule-governed behavior, matching to sample, and verbal behavior are some of the tools that have been developed in the experimental analysis of behavior. Although the article focuses on the experimental analysis of reasoning, this is but one of the areas in which behavior analysts should have a greater impact on contemporary psychology.     

Decision making styles and progress in occupational decision making

This study provides a reexamination of the role of different decisional strategies in facilitating progress in occupational decision making. Although the assumptions that a rational decision making style is the preferred mode of vocational functioning has been endorsed in a variety of career theories and interventions, there has been conflicting evidence about the validity of this assumption. To examine the role of different decisional approaches in the progress of making an occupational decision, the rational, intuitive, and dependent decision making style scores of 71 undergraduate students were used to predict progress in occupational decision making. The results of the regression analyses failed to provide support for the assumption that a rational style is the most effective in accomplishing this careerrelated task, but indicated strong support for the conclusion that the use of dependent decisional strategies is damaging, particularly in early stages of the decisional process.     

The semantic side of decision making

The research reported in this paper follows the perspective that decision making is a meaningful act that conveys information. Furthermore, the potential meanings associated with decision options may affect the decisions themselves. This idea is examined in the contexts of compensation, donation, and exchange. In general, judgments were relation dependent and meaning dependent. Furthermore, the results show nonmonotonicities and limited substitutability in a pattern that challenges straightforward ways of mapping decisions onto a common currency of utility.     

Psychological models of professional decision making

People are often expected to make decisions based on allof the relevant information, weighted and combined appropriately. Under manyconditions, however, people use heuristic strategies that depart from thisideal. I tested the ability of two models to predict bail decisions made byjudges in two courts. In both courts, a simple heuristic proved to be abetter predictor of judicial decisions than a more complex model thatinstantiated the principles of due process. Specifically, judges were"passing the buck" because they relied on decisions madeby the police, prosecution, and previous bench. Problematically, theseearlier decisions were not significantly related to case characteristics.These findings have implications for the types of models researchers use tocapture professional decision-making policies.