决策过程中参照点效应研究述评

Kahneman和Tversky提出的“参照点效应”概念,对决策者的认知编码和信息整合方式做出了合理的解释,并对传统的理性决策理论提出了挑战。近年来,关于参照点效应的研究也一直受到众多学者的重视。文章系统阐述了参照点效应的相关概念和最新研究进展,并提出了参照点效应未来研究的4个趋势：日益重视多重参照点效应的研究、开始关注动态决策中的参照点变化机制、重视群体决策过程中的参照点效应研究、注重在现实决策任务中验证和发展参照点效应的相关理论     

Multiple reference points in satisfaction and fairness assessment

Most studies of reference point effects have used a single referent, such as a price, a salary, or a target. There is considerable evidence that the judged fairness of, or satisfaction with, an outcome is significantly influenced by discrepancies from such single referents. In many settings, however, more than one reference point may be available, so the subject may be confronted simultaneously with some referents above, some at, and some below the focal outcome. Little is known about the simultaneous impact of such multiple reference points. We examine here the effects of two referents on ratings of salary satisfaction and fairness. Subjects were presented with a series of scenarios that described a salary offer made to a hypothetical MBA graduate and provided information about the salary offers made to either one or two other similar graduates. For each scenario, subjects judged how fair the focal graduate would feel the offer to be, and how satisfied he or she would be with it. Satisfaction ratings displayed asymmetric effects of comparisons: the pain associated with receiving a salary lower than another MBA is greater than the pleasure associated with a salary higher than the other student by the same amount. Fairness ratings showed a different pattern of asymmetric effects of discrepancies from the reference salaries: the focal graduate's salary was judged somewhat less fair when others received lower offers, and much less fair when others received higher offers. The asymmetric effects occurred for both reference points, suggesting that the focal salary was compared separately to each of the referents rather than to a single reference point formed by prior integration of the referents. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The use of multiple reference points in risky decision making

Among psychologists and economists, prospect theory continues to be one of the most popular models of decision making. The theory's key property is reference dependence; specifically, how an individual's perception of loss or gain is dependent upon their starting point (i.e., the status quo). Although prospect theory is widely accepted, other authors have sought the inclusion of reference points besides the status quo. Initially these extensions focused on the importance of single reference points such as goals. More recently, authors have explained choice data by including multiple reference points within the value function. Multiple‐reference‐point theories generally assume that many choice situations possess an implicit or explicit goal, or point an individual will strive to obtain, and/or a minimum requirement (i.e., a “lower bound”) above which an individual will strive to stay. In two experiments, we present evidence that individuals can utilize the minimum requirement, status quo, and goal within a single risky decision task. Participants most often chose to maximize their chance of reaching reference points even when that decision was riskier, resulted in lower expected value, resulted in lower expected utility, or ran contrary to the predictions of prospect theory. Furthermore, salience and uncertainty moderated the use of goals and minimum requirements as reference points. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Indifference sets of reference points in multi‐objective integer linear programming

Reference point approaches for multi‐objective problems rely on the definition of an achievement scalarizing function that projects reference points onto the non‐dominated solution set. In this paper, we investigate the behaviour of reference points using a Tchebycheff metric‐based scalarizing function in multi‐objective pure integer linear programming (MOILP). Since the non‐dominated solutions are discrete in MOILP, there are multiple reference points that lead to the same solution, i.e. there are indifference sets on the reference point space. We investigate some properties of the reference points in MOILP and also the graphical representation of indifference sets for tri‐objective problems. We further investigate properties of the reference points when additional limitations on the objective function values are introduced. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Use of social knowledge in tacit coordination: Social focal points

Social focal point theory predicts that, in matching, people search for a shared characteristic that makes one decision option salient whereas, in mismatching, they search for complementary characteristics that make different options salient for each of the coordinating parties. In two studies, participants learned about a partner’s activity preferences and then tried to either match or mismatch choices on a series of pictures that were remotely associated with one of these preferences. Being the same on a relevant preference facilitated matching whereas being different facilitated mismatching. In the second study, participants also used overall perceived similarity to supplement specific trait information. Coordination performance also affected interpersonal impressions: successful matching increased interpersonal attraction whereas successful mismatching did not. These downstream effects were obtained even when participants had considerable prior social information about their partners. Tacit coordination is compared with mimicry and synchrony, and the implications for coordinated team performance are discussed.     

Development and Testing of an Abbreviated Numeracy Scale: A Rasch Analysis Approach

Research has demonstrated that individual differences in numeracy may have important consequences for decision making. In the present paper, we develop a shorter, psychometrically improved measure of numeracy—the ability to understand, manipulate, and use numerical information, including probabilities. Across two large independent samples that varied widely in age and educational level, participants completed 18 items from existing numeracy measures. In Study 1, we conducted a Rasch analysis on the item pool and created an eight‐item numeracy scale that assesses a broader range of difficulty than previous scales. In Study 2, we replicated this eight‐item scale in a separate Rasch analysis using data from an independent sample. We also found that the new Rasch‐based numeracy scale, compared with previous measures, could predict decision‐making preferences obtained in past studies, supporting its predictive validity. In Study, 3, we further established the predictive validity of the Rasch‐based numeracy scale. Specifically, we examined the associations between numeracy and risk judgments, compared with previous scales. Overall, we found that the Rasch‐based scale was a better linear predictor of risk judgments than prior measures. Moreover, this study is the first to present the psychometric properties of several popular numeracy measures across a diverse sample of ages and educational level. We discuss the usefulness and the advantages of the new scale, which we feel can be used in a wide range of subject populations, allowing for a more clear understanding of how numeracy is associated with decision processes. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Fairness of National Decision‐making Procedures: The Views of Adolescents in 18 European Countries

This study examines adolescents' evaluation of the fairness of three forms of democratic decision‐making procedures (direct democracy, representative democracy and group representation) and one non‐democratic procedure (oligarchy). Social dominance orientation‐Egalitarianism (SDO‐E), religious group identification and the countries' level of democracy are examined as predictors. The 2008 Europroject dataset was used, which contained 4441 native majority adolescents (mean age = 16.1 years) in 18 European countries. Adolescents evaluated direct democracy as most fair, followed by group representation, representative democracy and oligarchy. This rank order was found independent of the issue under consideration (moral or social), and of SDO‐E and religious identification, and across the countries. In addition, adolescents scoring higher on SDO‐E and on religious identification found group representation and non‐democratic oligarchy fairer. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The View from Inside the System: How Police Explain Their Response to Sexual Assault

Prior research has documented the problematic community response to sexual assault: the majority of sexual assaults reported to police are never prosecuted. Social dominance theory suggests that this response is a form of institutional discrimination, intended to maintain existing social structures, and that police personnel likely draw upon shared ideologies to justify their decision‐making in sexual assault case investigations. This study drew upon social dominance theory to examine how police justified their investigatory decisions to identify potential leverage points for change. The study revealed that the likelihood of a case referral to the prosecutor increased with each additional investigative step completed; of the different types of justifications provided by police for a less‐than‐thorough investigative response and stalled case, blaming the victim for the poor police investigation proved to be the most damaging to case progression; and the type of explanation provided by police was impacted by specific case variables. As suggested by social dominance theory, the study demonstrates that police rely on several different mechanisms to justify their response to sexual assault; implementing criminal justice system policies that target and interrupt these mechanisms has the potential to improve this response, regardless of specific case factors.     

An application of the prototype willingness model to drivers' speeding behaviour

We tested the prototype willingness model (PWM). The participants (N = 198) completed online questionnaire measures of PWM constructs (Time 1) and subsequent speeding behaviour (Time 2). Path analyses showed that the PWM accounted for 89% of the variance in subsequent (self‐reported) speeding behaviour. This significantly exceeded the variance accounted for by the theory of planned behaviour. In line with the PWM, both behavioural intention and behavioural willingness had direct effects on behaviour. Behavioural willingness had a significantly larger effect. Attitude and subjective norm both had indirect effects on behaviour through both behavioural intention and behavioural willingness. Prototype (similarity) perceptions had indirect effects on behaviour through behavioural willingness only. The findings support the notion that driving is governed by reactive decision‐making (willingness), underpinned by prototype perceptions, attitudes and subjective norms, to a greater extent than it is deliberative decision‐making (intentions), underpinned by attitudes and subjective norms. The implications for safety interventions are discussed.     

Perspectives on consumer decision making: an integrated approach

In the consumer behaviour literature several perspectives on consumer decision making have been considered, including the ‘value perspective’, the ‘information processing perspective’, the ‘emotional perspective’ and ‘cue utilisation theory’. In this paper, a framework which integrates several perspectives on consumer decision making and hypothesises possible links between several basic constructs is developed. The framework is tested by the use of two experimental designs. The results of this study support the complexity of consumer decision making with the following findings. First, consumers do not use their cognitive and affective skills independently, rather they affect each other. Secondly, the cognitive, evaluative constructs of quality and attitude had significant direct effects on buying intention in both experiments, whereas the affective construct of emotion had no significant effects on buying intention in both experiments. Thirdly, in both experiments price affected perceived quality, which in turn affected attitude, which in turn affected buying intention. At the same time, price had no direct effect on buying intention. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Test of a Level of Aspiration model of group decision making: Non-obvious group preference reversal due to an irrelevant alternative

We conducted two experiments that investigated a non-obvious prediction of a Level of Aspiration (LOA) model of group decision making. In both experiments, groups chose among three alternatives, A, B, and C, with C always being least preferred by all of the group members. In each experiment, by manipulating the nature of alternative C, we created two conditions differing in whether only A or only B was acceptable to all members. In support of the LOA model, groups tended to choose the alternative acceptable to all members, even when (Experiment 2) a majority of members most preferred a different alternative. Implications of the results for the LOA model are discussed in the context of social choice theory.     

The discounting model selector: Statistical software for delay discounting applications

Original, open‐source computer software was developed and validated against established delay discounting methods in the literature. The software executed approximate Bayesian model selection methods from user‐supplied temporal discounting data and computed the effective delay 50 (ED50) from the best performing model. Software was custom‐designed to enable behavior analysts to conveniently apply recent statistical methods to temporal discounting data with the aid of a graphical user interface (GUI). The results of independent validation of the approximate Bayesian model selection methods indicated that the program provided results identical to that of the original source paper and its methods. Monte Carlo simulation (n = 50,000) confirmed that true model was selected most often in each setting. Simulation code and data for this study were posted to an online repository for use by other researchers. The model selection approach was applied to three existing delay discounting data sets from the literature in addition to the data from the source paper. Comparisons of model selected ED50 were consistent with traditional indices of discounting. Conceptual issues related to the development and use of computer software by behavior analysts and the opportunities afforded by free and open‐sourced software are discussed and a review of possible expansions of this software are provided.     

Sequencing actions: an information-search study of tradeoffs of priorities against spatiotemporal constraints

How people choose between sequences of actions was investigated in an everyday errandplanning task. In this task subjects chose the preferred sequence of performing a number of errands in a fictitious environment. Two experiments were conducted with undergraduate students serving as subjects. One group searched information about each alternative. The same information was directly available to another group. In Experiment 1 the results showed that for two errands subjects took into account all attributes describing the errands, thus suggesting a tradeoff between priority, wait time, and travel distance with priority being the most important. Consistent with this finding predominantly intraalternative information search was observed. These results were replicated in Experiment 2 for three errands. In addition choice outcomes, information search, and sequence of responding suggested that for more than two actions sequence choices are made in stages.     

Evaluating Effort: Influences of Evaluation Mode on Judgments of Task‐specific Efforts

The claim that humans adapt their actions in ways that avoid effortful processing (whether cognitive or physical) is a staple of various theories of human behavior. Although much work has been carried out focusing on the determinants of such behaviors, less attention has been given to how individuals evaluate effort. In the current set of experiments, we utilized the general evaluability theory to examine the evaluability of effort by examining subjective value functions across different evaluation modes. Individuals judged the anticipated effort of four task‐specific efforts indexed by stimulus rotation, items to be remembered, weight to be lifted, and stimulus degradation across joint (i.e., judged comparatively) and single evaluation modes (i.e., judged in isolation). General evaluability theory hypothesizes that highly evaluable attributes should be consistently evaluated (i.e., demonstrate similar subjective value functions) between the two modes. Across six experiments, we demonstrate that the perceived effort associated with items to be remembered, weight to be lifted, and stimulus degradation can be considered relatively evaluable, while the effort associated with stimulus rotation may be relatively inevaluable. Results are discussed within the context of subjective evaluation, internal reference information, and strategy selection. In addition, methodological implications of evaluation modes are considered. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

情绪对跨期决策的影响：来自单维占优模型的解释

跨期决策的研究表明, 积极情绪和消极情绪状态下的跨期决策行为存在显著差异。本研究从单维占优模型的角度, 揭示情绪影响跨期决策的过程机制。实验1通过诱发被试的积极和消极情绪, 发现积极情绪下被试的时间折扣率更低, 有更强的选择延迟选项的倾向。实验2运用“模拟天平任务”测量了跨期决策时的维度间差异比较, 检验单维占优模型对情绪影响跨期决策的解释性。结果发现, 维度间差异比较在情绪对跨期决策的影响中起中介作用。实验3a和实验3b分别运用时间和金钱启动策略操纵维度间差异比较过程, 再次验证单维占优模型的解释作用。 结果发现, 情绪对跨期决策的效应随着时间和金钱的启动而消失, 进一步支持了维度间差异比较的中介作用。本研究从决策过程的角度, 揭示了情绪影响跨期决策的心理机制, 并进一步为单维占优模型对跨期决策行为的解释性增加了支持性证据。     

Simulation of Preference Information in an Interactive Reference Point‐Based Method for the Bi‐Objective Inventory Routing Problem

In the research area of multiple criteria decision making, very few publications exist that explicitly design the simulation of a decision maker (DM) in an interactive approach. For this reason, we outline some methods widely used in the literature to identify common assumptions of simulating the DM's responses and the required input preference information. Our paper aims at covering the identified gap by introducing experimental concepts. Such concepts are used for theoretical analyses of a combined search‐and‐decision‐making procedure. Simulating the DM is a fruitful idea because the algorithm can be tested without integrating a human decision maker. Finally, we conduct experiments based on the proposed settings for a multiobjective inventory routing problem, which is a relevant and challenging logistic problem. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Part-set cueing and lexical decisions: Testing an inhibitory account

Providing some elements of a studied set during testing (part-set cues) can impair memory for the remaining elements (noncues)—a counterintuitive effect that has recently been attributed to inhibition of noncues. To test for such inhibition using a lexical decision task, we manipulated semantic and episodic relationships, such that cues and noncues were related only semantically, only episodically, or both semantically and episodically. Results showed that part-set cueing evoked inhibition, slowing lexical decisions for noncues that were related to cues both semantically and episodically, consistent with previous results involving the retrieval practice paradigm. However, either type of relationship alone was insufficient to slow decisions, despite previous evidence of impaired memory in similar conditions when tested with other measures such as free recall. The latter results raise questions regarding the extent to which inhibition can account for cueing-induced impairment when cues and noncues are related only semantically or only episodically.     

Individual differences in the response to forgone payoffs: an examination of high functioning drug abusers

This study evaluates the effect of forgone payoffs in decision‐making tasks used for studying individual differences. We investigate whether the disclosure of forgone payoffs (defined as payoffs associated with un‐chosen alternatives) has selective effects for drug abusers. Evidence suggests that drug abusers are hypersensitive to signals of positive reward. Accordingly, because the forgone payoffs of risky high‐variability options include rewarding outcomes, this may create a distraction and lead drug abusers to make more risky choices. In a controlled experiment, we examined the behavior of high‐functioning drug abusers and healthy controls using the Iowa gambling task. The results showed that in a forgone payoff condition, drug abusers made more risky choices. The results demonstrate that adding information about forgone payoffs can be useful for studying individual differences, and that studying individual differences can be valuable in evaluating the effects of forgone payoffs. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Emotion,Decision, and Risk: Betting on Gambles versus Betting on People

We examined the effects of two emotions, fear and anger, on risk‐taking behavior in two types of tasks: Those in which uncertainty is generated by a randomizing device (“lottery risk”) and those in which it is generated by the uncertain behavior of another person (“person‐based risk”). Participants first completed a writing task to induce fear or anger. They then made choices either between lotteries (Experiment 1) or between actions in risky two‐person decisions (Experiments 2 and 3). The experiments involved substantial real‐money payoffs. Replicating earlier studies (which used hypothetical rewards), Experiment 1 showed that fearful participants were more risk‐averse than angry participants in lottery‐risk tasks. However—the key result of this study—fearful participants were substantially less risk‐averse than angry participants in a two‐person task involving person‐based risk (Experiment 2). Experiment 3 offered options and payoffs identical to those of Experiment 2 but with lottery‐type risk. Risk‐taking returned to the pattern of Experiment 1. The impact of incidental emotions on risk‐taking appears to be contingent on the class of uncertainty involved. For lottery risk, fear increased the frequency of risk‐averse choices and anger reduced it. The reverse pattern was found when uncertainty in the decision was person‐based. Further, the effect was specifically on differences in willingness to take risks rather than on differences in judgments of how much risk was present. The impact of different emotions on risk‐taking or risk‐avoiding behavior is thus contingent on the type, as well as the degree, of uncertainty the decision maker faces. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.