Autoregressive Generalized Linear Mixed Effect Models with Crossed Random Effects: An Application to Intensive Binary Time Series Eye-Tracking Data

As a method to ascertain person and item effects in psycholinguistics, a generalized linear mixed effect model (GLMM) with crossed random effects has met limitations in handing serial dependence across persons and items. This paper presents an autoregressive GLMM with crossed random effects that accounts for variability in lag effects across persons and items. The model is shown to be applicable to intensive binary time series eye-tracking data when researchers are interested in detecting experimental condition effects while controlling for previous responses. In addition, a simulation study shows that ignoring lag effects can lead to biased estimates and underestimated standard errors for the experimental condition effects.     

密集追踪数据分析：模型及其应用

在心理学、教育学和临床医学等领域, 越来越多的研究者开始关注个体内部的行为、心理、临床效果等随时间而产生的动态变化, 重视针对个体的差异化建模。密集追踪是一种在短时间内对个体进行多个时间节点密集追踪测量的方法, 更适合用于研究个体内部心理过程等的动态变化及其作用机制。近年来, 密集追踪成为心理学研究的一大热点, 但许多密集追踪的研究分析仍停留在较为传统的方法。方法学领域已涌现出较多用于密集追踪数据分析的模型方法, 较为主流的模型包括以动态结构方程模型(Dynamic Structural Equation Model, DSEM)为代表的自上而下的建模方法, 以及以组迭代多模型估计(Group Iterative Multiple Model Estimation, GIMME)为代表的自下而上的建模方法。二者均可以方便地对密集追踪数据中的自回归及交叉滞后效应进行建模。     

At the Frontiers of Modeling Intensive Longitudinal Data: Dynamic Structural Equation Models for the Affective Measurements from the COGITO Study

With the growing popularity of intensive longitudinal research, the modeling techniques and software options for such data are also expanding rapidly. Here we use dynamic multilevel modeling, as it is incorporated in the new dynamic structural equation modeling (DSEM) toolbox in Mplus, to analyze the affective data from the COGITO study. These data consist of two samples of over 100 individuals each who were measured for about 100 days. We use composite scores of positive and negative affect and apply a multilevel vector autoregressive model to allow for individual differences in means, autoregressions, and cross-lagged effects. Then we extend the model to include random residual variances and covariance, and finally we investigate whether prior depression affects later depression scores through the random effects of the daily diary measures. We end with discussing several urgent—but mostly unresolved—issues in the area of dynamic multilevel modeling.     

Psychometric network models from time-series and panel data

Researchers in the field of network psychometrics often focus on the estimation of Gaussian graphical models (GGMs)—an undirected network model of partial correlations—between observed variables of cross-sectional data or single-subject time-series data. This assumes that all variables are measured without measurement error, which may be implausible. In addition, cross-sectional data cannot distinguish between within-subject and between-subject effects. This paper provides a general framework that extends GGM modeling with latent variables, including relationships over time. These relationships can be estimated from time-series data or panel data featuring at least three waves of measurement. The model takes the form of a graphical vector-autoregression model between latent variables and is termed the ts-lvgvar when estimated from time-series data and the panel-lvgvar when estimated from panel data. These methods have been implemented in the software package psychonetrics, which is exemplified in two empirical examples, one using time-series data and one using panel data, and evaluated in two large-scale simulation studies. The paper concludes with a discussion on ergodicity and generalizability. Although within-subject effects may in principle be separated from between-subject effects, the interpretation of these results rests on the intensity and the time interval of measurement and on the plausibility of the assumption of stationarity.

     

Parsing as a Cue-Based Retrieval Model

This paper develops a novel psycholinguistic parser and tests it against experimental and corpus reading data. The parser builds on the recent research into memory structures, which argues that memory retrieval is content-addressable and cue-based. It is shown that the theory of cue-based memory systems can be combined with transition-based parsing to produce a parser that, when combined with the cognitive architecture ACT-R, can model reading and predict online behavioral measures (reading times and regressions). The parser's modeling capacities are tested against self-paced reading experimental data (Grodner & Gibson, 2005), eye-tracking experimental data (Staub, 2011), and a self-paced reading corpus (Futrell et al., 2018).     

A double bootstrap method to analyze linear models with autoregressive error terms

A new method for the analysis of linear models that have autoregressive errors is proposed. The approach is not only relevant in the behavioral sciences for analyzing small-sample time-series intervention models, but it is also appropriate for a wide class of small-sample linear model problems in which there is interest in inferential statements regarding all regression parameters and autoregressive parameters in the model. The methodology includes a double application of bootstrap procedures. The 1st application is used to obtain bias-adjusted estimates of the autoregressive parameters. The 2nd application is used to estimate the standard errors of the parameter estimates. Theoretical and Monte Carlo results are presented to demonstrate asymptotic and small-sample properties of the method; examples that illustrate advantages of the new approach over established time-series methods are described.     

在GLMM框架下统一GT与IRT

本文首次提出使用广义线性混合模型(Generalized Linear Mixed Model, GLMM)对概化理论(GT)和项目反应理论(IRT)进行统合,即在一次统计中就能同时获得GT和IRT所需要的估计结果。模拟研究结果显示：相比于传统的GT方差分量估计方法——期望均值平方(Expected Mean Squares, EMS),GLMM可以获得更准确的方差分量、G系数和Φ系数,而且GLMM获得的题目难度参数估计精度优于传统Rasch模型。实证研究展示GLMM在实际心理测量数据分析中的应用。     

The Multigroup Multilevel Categorical Latent Growth Curve Models

Longitudinal data describe developmental patterns and enable predictions of individual changes beyond sampled time points. Major methodological issues in longitudinal data include modeling random effects, subject effects, growth curve parameters, and autoregressive residuals. This study embedded the longitudinal model within a multigroup multilevel framework and allowed for autoregressive residuals. The parameter in the new model can be estimated using the computer program WinBUGS, which adopts Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms. Two simulation studies were conducted. An empirical example was raised and established based on models generated by the results of empirical data, which have been fitted and compared.     

IRTree models with ordinal and multidimensional decision nodes for response styles and trait-based rating responses

IRTree models decompose observed rating responses into sequences of theory-based decision nodes, and they provide a flexible framework for analysing trait-related judgements and response styles. However, most previous applications of IRTree models have been limited to binary decision nodes that reflect qualitatively distinct and unidimensional judgement processes. The present research extends the family of IRTree models for the analysis of response styles to ordinal judgement processes for polytomous decisions and to multidimensional parametrizations of decision nodes. The integration of ordinal judgement processes overcomes the limitation to binary nodes, and it allows researchers to test whether decisions reflect qualitatively distinct response processes or gradual steps on a joint latent continuum. The extension to multidimensional node models enables researchers to specify multiple judgement processes that simultaneously affect the decision between competing response options. Empirical applications highlight the roles of extreme and midpoint response style in rating judgements and show that judgement processes are moderated by different response formats. Model applications with multidimensional decision nodes reveal that decisions among rating categories are jointly informed by trait-related processes and response styles.     

A tool for tracking visual attention: The Restricted Focus Viewer

Eye-tracking equipment has proven useful in examining the cognitive processes people use when understanding and reasoning with visual stimuli. However, eye-tracking has several drawbacks: accurate eye-tracking equipment is expensive, it is often awkward for participants, it requires frequent recalibration, and the data can be difficult to interpret. We introduce an alternative tool: theRestricted Focus Viewer (RFV). This is a computer program that takes an image, blurs it, and displays it on a computer monitor, allowing the participant to see only a small region of the image in focus at any time. The region in focus can be moved using the computer mouse. The RFV records what the participant is focusing on at any point in time. It is cheap, nonintrusive, does not require calibration, and provides accurate data about which region is being focused on. We describe this tool and also provide experimental comparisons with eye-tracking. The RFV (Version 2.1) is freely available at http://www.csse.monash.edu. au/projects/RFV/.     

Get Over It! A Multilevel Threshold Autoregressive Model for State-Dependent Affect Regulation

Intensive longitudinal data provide rich information, which is best captured when specialized models are used in the analysis. One of these models is the multilevel autoregressive model, which psychologists have applied successfully to study affect regulation as well as alcohol use. A limitation of this model is that the autoregressive parameter is treated as a fixed, trait-like property of a person. We argue that the autoregressive parameter may be state-dependent, for example, if the strength of affect regulation depends on the intensity of affect experienced. To allow such intra-individual variation, we propose a multilevel threshold autoregressive model. Using simulations, we show that this model can be used to detect state-dependent regulation with adequate power and Type I error. The potential of the new modeling approach is illustrated with two empirical applications that extend the basic model to address additional substantive research questions.     

Visual inspection of data revisited: Do the eyes still have it?

In behavior analysis, visual inspection of graphic information is the standard by which data are evaluated. Efforts to supplement visual inspection using inferential statistical procedures to assess intervention effects (e.g., analysis of variance or time-series analysis) have met with opposition. However, when serial dependence is present in the data, the use of visual inspection by itself may prove to be problematic. Previously published reports demonstrate that autocorrelated data influence trained observers' ability to identify level treatment effects and trends that occur in the intervention phase of experiments. In this report, four recent studies are presented in which autoregressive equations were used to produce point-to-point functions to simulate experimental data. In each study, various parameters were manipulated to assess trained observers' responses to changes in point-to-point functions from the baseline condition to intervention. Level shifts over baseline behavior (treatment effect), as well as no change from baseline (no treatment effect or trend), were most readily identified by observers, but trends were rarely recognized. Furthermore, other factors previously thought to augment and improve observers' responses had no impact. Results are discussed in terms of the use of visual inspection and the training of behavior analysts.     

Evaluation on types of invariance in studying extreme response bias with an IRTree approach

In recent years, item response tree (IRTree) approaches have received increasing attention in the response style literature for their ability to partial out response style latent variables as well as associated item parameters. When an IRTree approach is adopted to measure extreme response styles, directional and content invariance could be assumed at the latent variable and item parameter levels. In this study, we propose to evaluate the empirical validity of these invariance assumptions by employing a general IRTree model with relaxed invariance assumptions. This would allow us to examine extreme response biases, beyond extreme response styles. With three empirical applications of the proposed evaluation, we find that relaxing some of the invariance assumptions improves the model fit, which suggests that not all assumed invariances are empirically supported. Specifically, at the latent variable level, we find reasonable evidence for directional invariance but mixed evidence for content invariance, although we also find that estimated correlations between content-specific extreme response latent variables are high, hinting at the potential presence of a general extreme response tendency. At the item parameter level, we find no directional or content invariance for thresholds and no content invariance for slopes. We discuss how the variant item parameter estimates obtained from a general IRTree model can offer useful insight to help us understand response bias related to extreme responding measured within the IRTree framework.     

Gaze and eye-tracking solutions for psychological research

Eye-tracking technology is a growing field used to detect eye movements and analyze human processing of visual information for interactive and diagnostic applications. Different domains in scientific research such as neuroscience, experimental psychology, computer science and human factors can benefit from eye-tracking methods and techniques to unobtrusively investigate the quantitative evidence underlying visual processes. In order to meet the experimental requirements concerning the variety of application fields, different gaze- and eye-tracking solutions using high-speed cameras are being developed (e.g., eye-tracking glasses, head-mounted or desk-mounted systems), which are also compatible with other analysis devices such as magnetic resonance imaging. This work presents an overview of the main application fields of eye-tracking methodology in psychological research. In particular, two innovative solutions will be shown: (1) the SMI RED-M eye-tracker, a high performance portable remote eye-tracker suitable for different settings, that requires maximum mobility and flexibility; (2) a wearable mobile gaze-tracking device--the SMI eye-tracking glasses--which is suitable for real-world and virtual environment research. For each kind of technology, the functions and different possibilities of application in experimental psychology will be described by focusing on some examples of experimental tasks (i.e., visual search, reading, natural tasks, scene viewing and other information processing) and theoretical approaches (e.g., embodied cognition).     

Direct gaze,eye movements,and covert and overt social attention processes

The present study is a replication and extension of previous research examining the effects of others’ gaze direction and gaze shifts on both participants’ (N = 32) manual responses, as an indicator of covert processes, and their visual attention, as an indicator of overt processes, within an experimental response time (RT) paradigm, under both fixed- and free-viewing instructions. Participants viewed arrays of faces displaying direct or averted gaze, which shifted or held their gaze, concurrent with the presentation of a target letter that participants had to identify overlaid on one face, all while their gaze was recorded with an eye-tracking system. Participants’ RTs and eye movements both revealed faster responses when the target face displayed either direct or shifted gaze, and especially when its gaze had shifted from averted to direct, though these effects were modulated by the viewing instructions. Thus, the findings replicate and extend previous research by revealing that direct gaze and dynamic motion onset affect both covert and overt attention.     

Using Response Times for Joint Modeling of Response and Omission Behavior

Abstract

For adequate modeling of missing responses, a thorough understanding of the nonresponse mechanisms is vital. As a large number of major testing programs are in the process or already have been moving to computer-based assessment, a rich body of additional data on examinee behavior becomes easily accessible. These additional data may contain valuable information on the processes associated with nonresponse. Bringing together research on item omissions with approaches for modeling response time data, we propose a framework for simultaneously modeling response behavior and omission behavior utilizing timing information for both. As such, the proposed model allows (a) to gain a deeper understanding of response and nonresponse behavior in general and, in particular, of the processes underlying item omissions in LSAs, (b) to model the processes determining the time examinees require to generate a response or to omit an item, and (c) to account for nonignorable item omissions. Parameter recovery of the proposed model is studied within a simulation study. An illustration of the model by means of an application to real data is provided.     

Unsupervised Classification During Time-Series Model Building

Researchers who collect multivariate time-series data across individuals must decide whether to model the dynamic processes at the individual level or at the group level. A recent innovation, group iterative multiple model estimation (GIMME), offers one solution to this dichotomy by identifying group-level time-series models in a data-driven manner while also reliably recovering individual-level patterns of dynamic effects. GIMME is unique in that it does not assume homogeneity in processes across individuals in terms of the patterns or weights of temporal effects. However, it can be difficult to make inferences from the nuances in varied individual-level patterns. The present article introduces an algorithm that arrives at subgroups of individuals that have similar dynamic models. Importantly, the researcher does not need to decide the number of subgroups. The final models contain reliable group-, subgroup-, and individual-level patterns that enable generalizable inferences, subgroups of individuals with shared model features, and individual-level patterns and estimates. We show that integrating community detection into the GIMME algorithm improves upon current standards in two important ways: (1) providing reliable classification and (2) increasing the reliability in the recovery of individual-level effects. We demonstrate this method on functional MRI from a sample of former American football players.     

A Comparison of Inverse-Wishart Prior Specifications for Covariance Matrices in Multilevel Autoregressive Models

Multilevel autoregressive models are especially suited for modeling between-person differences in within-person processes. Fitting these models with Bayesian techniques requires the specification of prior distributions for all parameters. Often it is desirable to specify prior distributions that have negligible effects on the resulting parameter estimates. However, the conjugate prior distribution for covariance matrices—the Inverse-Wishart distribution—tends to be informative when variances are close to zero. This is problematic for multilevel autoregressive models, because autoregressive parameters are usually small for each individual, so that the variance of these parameters will be small. We performed a simulation study to compare the performance of three Inverse-Wishart prior specifications suggested in the literature, when one or more variances for the random effects in the multilevel autoregressive model are small. Our results show that the prior specification that uses plug-in ML estimates of the variances performs best. We advise to always include a sensitivity analysis for the prior specification for covariance matrices of random parameters, especially in autoregressive models, and to include a data-based prior specification in this analysis. We illustrate such an analysis by means of an empirical application on repeated measures data on worrying and positive affect.     

Dynamic GSCA (Generalized Structured Component Analysis) with Applications to the Analysis of Effective Connectivity in Functional Neuroimaging Data

We propose a new method of structural equation modeling (SEM) for longitudinal and time series data, named Dynamic GSCA (Generalized Structured Component Analysis). The proposed method extends the original GSCA by incorporating a multivariate autoregressive model to account for the dynamic nature of data taken over time. Dynamic GSCA also incorporates direct and modulating effects of input variables on specific latent variables and on connections between latent variables, respectively. An alternating least square (ALS) algorithm is developed for parameter estimation. An improved bootstrap method called a modified moving block bootstrap method is used to assess reliability of parameter estimates, which deals with time dependence between consecutive observations effectively. We analyze synthetic and real data to illustrate the feasibility of the proposed method.