Representing Sudden Shifts in Intensive Dyadic Interaction Data Using Differential Equation Models with Regime Switching

A growing number of social scientists have turned to differential equations as a tool for capturing the dynamic interdependence among a system of variables. Current tools for fitting differential equation models do not provide a straightforward mechanism for diagnosing evidence for qualitative shifts in dynamics, nor do they provide ways of identifying the timing and possible determinants of such shifts. In this paper, we discuss regime-switching differential equation models, a novel modeling framework for representing abrupt changes in a system of differential equation models. Estimation was performed by combining the Kim filter (Kim and Nelson State-space models with regime switching: classical and Gibbs-sampling approaches with applications, MIT Press, Cambridge, 1999) and a numerical differential equation solver that can handle both ordinary and stochastic differential equations. The proposed approach was motivated by the need to represent discrete shifts in the movement dynamics of \(n= 29\) mother–infant dyads during the Strange Situation Procedure (SSP), a behavioral assessment where the infant is separated from and reunited with the mother twice. We illustrate the utility of a novel regime-switching differential equation model in representing children’s tendency to exhibit shifts between the goal of staying close to their mothers and intermittent interest in moving away from their mothers to explore the room during the SSP. Results from empirical model fitting were supplemented with a Monte Carlo simulation study to evaluate the use of information criterion measures to diagnose sudden shifts in dynamics.     

缺失数据处理的期望-极大化算法与马尔可夫蒙特卡洛方法

缺失数据普遍存在于心理学研究中, 影响着统计推断。极大似然估计(MLE)与基于贝叶斯的多重借补(MI)是处理缺失数据的两类重要方法。期望-极大化算法(EM)是寻求MLE的一种强有力的方法。马尔可夫蒙特卡洛方法(MCMC)可以相对简易地实现MI, 而且可以适用于复杂情况下的缺失数据处理。结合研究的需要讨论了实现这两类方法的适用软件。     

The Missing Psychological Links of Artificial Intelligence: Predication and Opposition

A distinction is drawn betiveen the predicationcd and mediational models of human cognition. By predication, 1 mean an act of affirming, denying, or qualifying broader patterns of meaning in relation to narrower or targeted patterns of meaning. By mediation, I mean a form of explanation in which something that is taken in or input comes indirectly to play a role in a process that was not initially a part of this process. Oppositionality of meanings is fundamental to the predicational process. It is shown that George Kelly relied on a predicational model in his psychology of personal constructs. It is not possible to bring Kellyian and computer terminology together into one viewpoint because of this basic contradiction in the theory of human cognition.     

Treatment of Missing Data: Beyond Ends and Means

The ethical decision making process behind the treatment of missing data has yet to be examined in the research literature in any discipline. The purpose of the current paper is to begin to discuss this decision-making process in view of a Foucauldian framework. The paper suggests how the ethical treatment of missing data should be considered from the adoption of this theoretical framework.     

Coping Options: Missing Links between Minority Group Identification and Psychological Well-Being

Using concepts from social identity theory ( Tajfel & Turner, 1979 ) and Lazarus and Folkman's (1984) cognitive theory of stress and coping we tested the capacity for group identification to foster beliefs in one's ability to cope successfully and in turn predict psychological well-being. Black American participants appraised the availability of coping options that varied by level of identity (individual, intragroup, and intergroup) as well as function of coping (problem-focused and emotion-focused). Replicating prior work, participants who were higher in racial group identification reported more positive well-being. Appraisals of individual emotion-focused and intergroup problem-focused options mediated the relationship of group identification with both self-esteem and life satisfaction. Appraisals of intergroup emotion-focused options also partially mediated the relationship between group identification and life satisfaction. Findings suggest that the relationship between minority group identification and well-being may partly be due to its influence over a person's sense that they and their group can respond effectively to disadvantage.     

Making Epistemologists Nervous: Relational Memory and Psychological Individualism

We cannot rethink the ethical and political dimensions of memory—especially its role in constituting persons and identities—without rethinking the nature of memory itself. I first describe a traditional epistemological view of memory, according to which memory is a faculty for preserving knowledge of the past, and then juxtapose a relational theory of memory developed by Sue Campbell. The relational theory is represented in terms of a distinction between actions and achievements; this distinction enables us to both clarify and defend the shift from an epistemological to a political conception of memory. On the resulting view, accuracy, not truth, is the appropriate norm for evaluating memory, and remembering is no longer conceived as an interior process. In the penultimate section I confront an objection to a relational theory of memory—and to relational theories of cognition generally—and suggest a strategy of response.     

Maximum Likelihood Methods in Treating Outliers and Symmetrically Heavy-Tailed Distributions for Nonlinear Structural Equation Models with Missing Data

By means of more than a dozen user friendly packages, structural equation models (SEMs) are widely used in behavioral, education, social, and psychological research. As the underlying theory and methods in these packages are vulnerable to outliers and distributions with longer-than-normal tails, a fundamental problem in the field is the development of robust methods to reduce the influence of outliers and the distributional deviation in the analysis. In this paper we develop a maximum likelihood (ML) approach that is robust to outliers and symmetrically heavy-tailed distributions for analyzing nonlinear SEMs with ignorable missing data. The analytic strategy is to incorporate a general class of distributions into the latent variables and the error measurements in the measurement and structural equations. A Monte Carlo EM (MCEM) algorithm is constructed to obtain the ML estimates, and a path sampling procedure is implemented to compute the observed-data log-likelihood and then the Bayesian information criterion for model comparison. The proposed methodologies are illustrated with simulation studies and an example. The research described herein was fully supported by a grant (CUHK 4243/03H) from the Rearch Grants Council of the Hong Kong Special Administration Region. The authors are thankful to the Editor, the Associate Editor, and anonymous reviewers for valuable comments which improve the paper significantly, and are grateful to ICPSR and the relevant funding agency for allowing the use of their data. Requests for reprints should be sent to S. Y. Lee, Department of Statistics, The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Shatin, N. T., Hong Kong.     

Clarifying Construct Validity: Definitions,Processes, and Models

Despite definitions in standard sources, personnel managers, psychologists, and psychometricians persistently encounter problems that are best referred to as the ambiguous nature of validity. The purpose of this article is to pro- vide an overview of construct validity and personnel testing, to demonstrate its practical utility, and to clarify with concrete examples certain theories and models, as well as to illustrate the meaning of the terminology used by com- mentators on the topic. A brief historical overview of testing and validation is presented; the progress of construct validity and its acceptance by various sec- tors of society is discussed parsimoniously in the section The Seven Wonders of Personnel Psychology. In the past, personnel psychologists have not done a very good job of understanding the constructs that underlie test perform- ance. Some new approaches can help to correct this. A process should be rou- tinely used on all tests in order to develop an understanding of the constructs that underlie performance on an employment test; only by knowing the cor- rect criterion and method of measuring it can we ascertain the intrinsic valid- ity of our measures.     

Feminism and Psychological Autonomy: A Study in Decision Making

Women seeking to realize the feminist goal of autonomy, defined as self-interested decision making, encounter conflict and anxiety. This study reports a group experience that used life-space drawings and force-field analyses to reduce anxiety and foster autonomous decision making. The 15 women participants in the yearlong study reported at least one action in the area originally designated for decision making. Among the components in the process, participants cited identification with, and support and information from, other group members. The results suggest that for the women in this study, group participation enhanced individual autonomy. Autonomy for me is believing in my own ability to do what I want to do, … then taking productive, creative steps toward fulfilling my own goals. … Autonomy for me is a personal thing, an internal thing, feeling that I have power.*     

TARGET ARTICLE: Duality Models in Social Psychology: From Dual Processes to Interacting Systems

Dual-system models explain social cognition and behavior as a joint function of 2 interconnected mental faculties, each operating according to different principles. In this article, we use the Reflective-Impulsive Model as an example and first describe 3 major advantages of dual-system models, i.e., their integrative power, their foundation in well-established constructs of cognition and neuroscience; and the ease with which they can explain the interplay of judgments and nonjudgmental processes. We then turn to current debates on the adequate number of systems, as well as on the role of freedom and consciousness. We conclude by stating that dual-system models are versatile tools to integrate existing findings and to stimulate new research in social cognition and beyond.     

Decision Making: Research and Theory Challenges for Applied Social Psychology

The potential for contributions by applied social psychology to decision research and theory is explored. Most decisions by groups and individuals are social in origin or impact, suggesting that social psychologists should consider decision making as a relevant topic. Early applied work is considered. Mathematical model approaches are explored. Both are found wanting, especially where we wish to apply our science to complex and multiple uncertain decision problems. Examples of recent relevant research that fit well into an applied social psychological framework are provided, indicating the variety of potential topics for investigations. Finally, the need for encompassing theory is considered. The characteristics of needed theory are discussed.     

The Psychological Processes of Discerning the Vocation to the Catholic Priesthood: A Qualitative Study

This study explores the psychological process of discerning the vocation to the Catholic priesthood. Grounded theory, a qualitative research methodology, was used to uncover the meaning and essence of the psychological processes of discerning the vocation to the Catholic priesthood. Five themes emerged from the data paralleling other developmental theories. Presently, assessment work follows similar patterns used in vocational testing in relation to any career. Based on the findings of this research, another facet of psychological assessment in regards to developing a sense of self may be beneficial in understanding a man’s readiness to serve the Catholic Church as a priest.     

Distinguishing Adding and Averaging Models in a Personnel Selection Task: When Missing Information Matters

Two experiments were conducted to determine if the manner in which information is combined to make personnel evaluations might depend on the correlation between the pieces of information. Introductory psychology students evaluated hypothetical employees for promotion to a supervisory position in a computer-systems department based on personnel test scores in management and computer programming. The management scores were from either a high or a low validity test. In addition some employees were missing test scores. The correlation between the test scores varied across groups of subjects (−.84, .00, .84). Responses were consistent with a relative-weight averaging model in the positive-correlation condition, but not in the negative- or zero-correlation conditions. A constant-weight averaging model seemed most appropriate in the zero-correlation condition, but it was not really possible to distinguish an additive from a constant-weight averaging strategy in the negative-correlation condition. The test to distinguish these strategies involves comparing the ratings of single-test employees to those of two-test employees. However, subjects developed various strategies for rating the single-test employees which tended to invalidate the test. Configural strategies were evident in the negative- and zero-correlation conditions for employees with lopsided score combinations. Employees with one test score were penalized particularly in the negative-correlation condition and when the available score was low in validity.     

锚定效应的研究范式、理论模型及应用启示

锚定效应是普遍存在的一种现象,它是指在不确定状态判断过程中,人们会以最初的信息作为参照点来调整对事件的估计,这往往会导致得出错误的判断。本文首先阐述了锚定效应的相关概念及经典研究范式,后者包括语意启动范式、数值启动范式、自发锚与外部锚启动范式等。然后对锚定效应的不充分调整启发模型、锚定调整模型、选择通达模型、双加工模型以及神经心理模型等进行了深入的探讨,并总结了锚定效应在经济管理等领域中的应用。最后指出了锚定效应的研究局限及未来的研究发展方向。