Estimating Success in Predicting a Variable with Nominal Measurement Using Other Variables with Nominal Measurements

In this article we are concerned with the situation where one is estimating the outcome of a variable Y, with nominal measurement, on the basis of the outcomes of several predictor variables, X 1, X 2, ..., X r, each with nominal measurement. We assume that we have a random sample from the population. Here we are interested in estimating p, the probability of successfully predicting a new Y from the population, given the X measurements for this new observation. We begin by proposing an estimator, p_a, which is the success rate in predicting Y from the current sample. We show that this estimator is always biased upwards. We then propose a second estimator, p_b, which divides the original sample into two groups, a holdout group and a training group, in order to estimate p. We show that procedures such as these are always biased downwards, no matter how we divide the original sample into the two groups. Because one of these estimators tends to overestimate p while the other tends to underestimate p, we propose as a heuristic solution to use the mean of these two estimators, p_c, as an estimator for p. We then perform several simulation studies to compare the three estimators with respect to both bias and MSE. These simulations seem to confirm that $ p c is a better estimator than either of the other two.     

A Study of Selected Demographic Variables and Recidivism with Adult Male Probationers

This article represents a study of variables associated with the recidivism rates of public offenders. The relationship of age, education, and prior offenses to recidivism rates is explored.     

The Role of Sexist Discrimination in Adult Women's Identity Development

The purpose of the current study was to examine the relationship between sexist discrimination and identity development in a sample of adult women. Participants completed a scale to indicate the extent to which sexist events had occurred in their lives and a measure of identity at 2 different data collection periods that spanned approximately 5 months. The results indicated that sexist events reported to occur within the last year at the first data collection period significantly predicted identity scores at the second data collection period. These findings are discussed in terms of how sexist discrimination may play a role in adult women's identity development and in terms of the additional psychometric data that supports the validity of the measure of sexist discrimination.     

Predicting Persistence of Nonsuicidal Self‐Injury in Suicidal Adolescents

Prospective predictors of persistent nonsuicidal self‐injury (NSSI) were examined in adolescents admitted to an inpatient psychiatric unit for suicidal behaviors and followed naturalistically for 6 months. Seventy‐one (77%) participants reported NSSI at baseline, and 40 (56%) persisted at the 6 month follow‐up. Those who endorsed automatic positive reinforcement (APR) as the predominant reason for NSSI were more likely to persist in NSSI. Depression over follow‐up, but not at baseline, also predicted persistence. These results suggest that helping high‐risk adolescents to identify alternative ways of generating emotion(s) to counter the effects of APR that may accompany NSSI should be a high priority treatment target.     

The Adult Persistence in Learning Model: A Road Map to Counseling Services for Adult Learners

The Adult Persistence in Learning (APIL) model focuses on personal issues of the individual adult learner, learning process issues, and environmental issues related to the particular institution to guide counseling services for adult leaners. Factors that facilitate a realistic approach to adult learning provide the focus: self-awareness, willingness to delay gratification, clarification of career and life goals, mastery of life transitions, sense of interpersonal competence, educational competence, intellectual and political competence in learning, information retrieval from the institution, awareness of opportunities and impediments in the environment, and perceptions of the compati-bility of the learning environment. Counseling interventions for individuals and groups based on the factors in the model can aid retention of adult learners.     

Changes in Attitudes Toward Women's Roles: Predicting Gender-Role Traditionalism Among College Students

National college student data derived from the 1996 Cooperative Institutional Research Program Freshman Survey and the 2000 College Student Survey were used to assess longitudinal changes in gender-role traditionalism across 4 years of college. Applying the Input–Environment–Outcome model to blocked stepwise regression analyses, the predictive value of students' precollege characteristics and predispositions, and various college environments and experiences, were assessed for men and women. Findings indicated that students' levels of traditionalism declined during college. Although men and women tended to change similarly on this dimension, women held more egalitarian views than did men at college entry and 4 years later. Regression results pointed to the relevance of peers, academic engagement, women's studies courses, and diversity experiences for students' gender-role attitudes 4 years after college entry.     

Adult Age Differences in Tower of Hanoi Performance: Influence From Demographic and Cognitive Variables

We examined performance in a five-disk version of the Tower of Hanoi (TOH) puzzle, assumed to reflect executive functioning, in population-based samples ranging in age from 35 to 85 years (N ?=?2798). Univariate analyses revealed significant age effects across three TOH measures as reflected by an age-related increase in moves to solution, a gradual slowing of performance, and an increase in rule violations with advanced age. The age-related influence was eliminated, or reduced considerably, when controlling for demographic and cognitive background variables. Across the dependent measures, Block Design and a measure of episodic memory (recall) were the consistent predictors. No effects of education were detected, while significant gender differences, favoring males, were observed for two TOH measures. Taken together, the results suggest that age-related deficits observed in TOH performance reflects an age-related impairment in visuospatial ability in addition to impairments in executive functions.     

The Effect of Life Events and Relationships on Adult Women's Decisions To Enroll in College

This study was designed to investigate the role of life events and “relationship” morality in women's decisions to enroll in college. Interviews with 38 women, ages 25–46, indicated that the timing for women returning to college was determined by the state of their relationships and life events and not solely by motivation. Enrollment was often postponed until children were “old enough,” family responsibilities were lessened, or fellow workers or employers would not be inconvenienced.     

Predicting Acculturation Using Career,Family, and Demographic Variables in a Sample of Mexican American Students

The authors examined the relationship of a set of career variables, family cohesion, and demographic variables with the acculturation level of a sample of 176 Mexican American community college students. Multiple regression analyses using a blocked entry method revealed that only the demographic variables related significantly to acculturation. Based upon the zero order correlations, socioeconomic status would appear to account for most of the variance shared by acculturation and a linear combination of the demographic variables.     

A Comparison of the Evolution of Men's and Women's Dreams in Daniel Levinson's Theory of Adult Development

This article examines an important difference in the adult development of men and women never stated by Levinson, but implicit in his two books, The Seasons of a Man's Life (1978) and The Seasons of a Woman's Life (1996). The task of forming a Dream that generated a sense of vitality and excitement was central to Levinson's adult development theory in his book on men. Often occupational in nature, the men's Dreams were usually formed in their late teens and 20s. Yet, careful examination of the interviews in Levinson's last book reveals a dearth of vitalizing Dreams among his women subjects, including the career women, during the same period: None had long-term career goals and nearly all gave precedence to marriage and family. Development of individualistic animating Dreams was complicated by this a priori commitment, and usually delayed until the women's Age 30 Transitions (28–33), often provoking crisis then and subsequent instability.     

Dealing with Hurt: An Assessment of Dispositional Style and Ethnicity in Coping Strategies

This study explored differences in coping styles based on the type of hurt experienced. Participants included 398 students (291 female and 87 male), who completed a computerized assessment of dispositional hurt, coping styles, and depression. The interrelationships amongst the two hurt typologies (introjective and retaliatory), 12 coping styles, and depression then were analyzed. Results showed that people with an introjective hurt disposition were more likely to use emotional support and instrumental support than those with a retaliatory hurt disposition, who were more likely to engage in planning and humor. Moreover, ethnic differences for two coping styles emerged; specifically, African Americans were more likely to use religion, whereas Caucasians were more likely to use substances as primary coping mechanisms.     

The Effect of Dispositional Optimism in HRQOL in Patients with Chronic Musculoskeletal Pain Conditions in Greece

The purpose of this investigation was to study the influence of optimism in the quality of life of patients with musculoskeletal problems that were referred to Amfilohia Rehabilitation Center, because of chronic pain and kinetic difficulties. The sample consisted of 96 patients. The questionnaires that were used are the short form health questionnaire (12 questions; SF12), the life orientation test-revised (LOT-R) and a VAS scale for pain measurement. According to the regression analysis performed, dispositional optimism is an independent factor affecting both the physical (β = .249, p < .005) and mental composite score (β = .414, p < .0001) in patients with musculoskeletal problems, even after controlling for the effect of pain intensity.     

Dispositional antecedents and outcomes of political skill in organizations: A four-study investigation with convergence

We developed a four-study research plan to examine the dispositional antecedents of political skill and its job performance consequences, and also to incorporate the mediating role of reputation, drawing upon a recent theoretical model of political skill in organizations. Study 1 established the psychometric properties of the two reputation scales used in the present research, and also demonstrated the validity of the self-report reputation measure in Study 4. Study 2 tested, and demonstrated support for, the ‘Affability’ dispositional theme as a predictor of political skill, and political skill as predictor of job performance. In Study 3, the political skill-job performance linkage was replicated, but when reputation was investigated as an intermediate linkage, it was found to fully mediate the relationship between political skill and job performance. Study 4 investigated all the linkages examined in Studies 2 and 3, and found that the ‘Active Influence’ dispositional theme predicted political skill, and that the political skill-job performance relationship was fully mediated by reputation. Collectively, these studies demonstrated support for recent theoretical developments in political skill and reputation, suggesting that political skill has dispositional antecedents, and that political skill demonstrates a significant impact on job performance, through reputation. The strengths and limitations of this research are discussed, and directions for future research are provided.     

Predicting adult responses to infant distress: Adult characteristics associated with perceptions,emotional reactions,and timing of intervention

This study examined adult characteristics associated with different responses to infant distress. One hundred eighty‐eight parents viewed four 20‐second segments of videotape in which a 4‐week‐old infant was either (a) fussing mildly, (b) fussing vigorously, (c) crying, or (d) crying vigorously. Participants rated their emotional reactions and perception of cry characteristics following each segment. Participants then viewed a 4‐minute videotape depicting the same infant progressing from calm to vigorous crying, and indicated when they would intervene to pick up the infant. Relatively high levels of empathy and extraversion and low levels of conscientiousness were associated with more sensitive responses to infant distress. Infant‐rearing attitudes had a strong impact on response patterns as well, suggesting that education may be an effective means of increasing parental sensitivity. ©2003 Michigan Association for Infant Mental Health.     

Dispositional resilience in treatment‐seeking patients with obsessive‐compulsive disorder and its association with treatment outcome

There is a lack of research on the relation between obsessive‐compulsive disorder (OCD) and resilience. Dispositional resilience, as described and defined in literature on hardiness, consists of three facets, namely beliefs about having control in everyday living, having a sense of purpose or commitment, and a positive attitude toward challenges. This study explores associations between dispositional resilience (measured with the Dispositional Resilience Scale (DRS‐15‐R)), symptom severity, and treatment outcome in a sample of 89 patients treated with concentrated exposure therapy (cET), and compares the findings with scores from two reference groups (students and soldiers). The patient group had significantly lower resilience scores than the two reference groups. Weak correlations were observed between dispositional resilience and OCD symptoms. Differences in dispositional resilience were weakly related to remission status at follow‐up (odds ratio of 1.11). Furthermore, resilience improved from pre‐ to post‐treatment (Cohen's d of 0.65). Our results imply that patients’ initial resilience score does not hinder nor facilitate treatment effects to a great extent in this format of ERP treatment.     

Predicting Treatment Response in Older Adults with Insomnia

This study examined potential predictors of treatment outcome in late-life insomnia. Fifty-four older adults with chronic insomnia were treated with cognitive–behavior therapy (CBT), pharmacotherapy (PCT), or combined CBT plus PCT. Pretreatment characteristics such as demographic, clinical, psychometric, and sleep variables were examined as correlates or potential predictors of treatment response. Treatment response was defined by posttreatment sleep efficiency as measured subjectively by daily sleep diary and objectively by polysomnography. The results indicate that age, insomnia duration, medical illness, and previous use of sleep medications can moderate subjective or objective treatment outcome or both of these in late-life insomnia. However, there are no reliable predictors of outcome across all treatment and assessment modalities. The implications of these findings for the treatment of insomnia in older adults seen in primary care settings are discussed.     

Variables associated with repeated suicide attempt in a criminal justice population

The aim of this study was to identify factors associated with repeated suicide attempts among criminal justice clients examined for substance abuse using the Addiction Severity Index. Among suicide attempters (n=1,404), repeaters (two or more attempts, n=770) were compared to nonrepeaters. In logistic regression, repetition was associated with younger age, opioid analgesics, somatic medication, overdose, maternal psychiatric problems, delirium tremens, cognitive problems, and violent behavior. As in other settings, factors associated with repetition differed from those associated with suicide attempts in general. In this setting, substance use complications and cognitive problems were connected to repetition and should be addressed in risk assessments.