THE FILE DRAWER EFFECT AND PUBLICATION RATES IN MENSTRUAL CYCLE RESEARCH

The file drawer problem refers to a publication bias for positive results, leading to studies which support the null hypothesis being relegated to the file drawer. The assumption is that researchers are unable to publish studies with nonsignificant findings. A survey of investigators studying the menstrual cycle showed this assumption to be unwarranted. Much of the research did not lend itself to a hypothesis-testing model. A more important contribution to the likelihood of publication was research productivity, and researchers whose first study was published were more likely to have continued their work.     

A Call for an Unbiased Search for Moderators in Disfluency Research: Reply to Oppenheimer and Alter (2014)

In a commentary to our article, Oppenheimer and Alter stressed the importance of searching for moderators in disfluency research. We agree, but we would like to clarify two issues. First, unlike Oppenheimer and Alter, we assume that learner characteristics might indeed moderate the effects of disfluency. Second, conclusions concerning the impact of disfluency in educational settings might be biased because of the file‐drawer problem. To counteract this possibility, we want to encourage other researchers to publish their studies––regardless of whether they found (positive) effects of disfluency or not. Until then, any recommendation concerning the use of disfluency as an educational intervention seems premature.     

Unconscious perception at the objective detection threshold exists

Does unconscious perception at the objective detection threshold (ODT) exist? In this reply, formal meta-analyses of previously narratively reviewed evidence (Snodgrass, Bernat, & Shevrin, 2004) provide strong evidence for large, reliable unconscious perceptual effects, and further strengthen previous conclusions for their ODT status. These meta-analyses dispel general concerns that ODT effects are small, unreliable, or susceptible to file drawer concerns (cf. Reingold, 2004). Furthermore, the specific objections (Holender & Duscherer, 2004) to individual ODT effects are refuted, and objections to our proposed solutions to the exhaustiveness, exclusiveness, and null sensitivity problems (Haase & Fisk, 2004; Reingold, 2004) are shown to be inapplicable, contradicted by the available evidence, or both. Accordingly, the strong evidence for ODT effects, taken together with the nonmonotonic relationship, contradicts the single-process conscious perception model (e.g., Holender & Duscherer, 2004) and provides stronger evidence for unconscious perception than hitherto available.     

On the short horizon of spontaneous iterative reasoning in logical puzzles and games

A reasoning strategy is iterative when the initial conclusion suggested by a set of premises is integrated into that set of premises in order to yield additional conclusions. Previous experimental studies on game theory-based strategic games (such as the beauty contest game) observed difficulty in reasoning iteratively, which has been partly attributed to bounded individual rationality. However, this difficulty has also been attributed to problems in adequately representing the beliefs, actions, and goals of other agents involved in the games. In four experiments, we observed similar difficulties in iterative reasoning in a variety of puzzles and games that did not involve social interactions with other agents, where they can only be caused by individual cognitive boundaries. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that an intrinsic difficulty in iterative reasoning originates from a tendency not to revise our initial mental representation of a problem in light of the initial conclusions that it implies.     

Associations of substance use problems with intimate partner violence for at-risk men in long-term relationships

Associations of substance use problems in men--defined as a man's meeting at least 1 criterion of dependence on each of a number of substances by his mid-20s--with their perpetration of intimate partner violence (IPV) were examined in an at-risk community sample of 150 men in long-term relationships from their late adolescence to their late 20s. Men who had a problem with substances other than sedatives (especially cannabis and hallucinogens) committed more IPV than did men without such problems. Most of the men who had a problem with marijuana also had an alcohol problem, which explains why alcohol was found to have only an indirect association with IPV. The failure of previous alcohol-use studies to control for co-occurrence of alcohol and marijuana problems may explain the discrepancy with conclusions from past research that alcohol problems contribute directly to the perpetration of IPV.     

PUBLICATION BIAS: A CASE STUDY OF FOUR TEST VENDORS

This article has 2 goals. First, we discuss publication bias and explain why it presents a potential problem for industrial and organizational psychology. After reviewing the traditional failsafe N, or file drawer analysis, we introduce a more sophisticated method of publication bias analysis (trim and fill), which has been developed in the medical literature but is largely unfamiliar to industrial and organizational psychology researchers. Second, we demonstrate trim and fill by applying it to validity information reported in the technical manuals of 4 test vendors. In doing so, we assess the likelihood that criterion-related validity information provided by test publishers may overestimate test validity. In our analysis of 18 validity distributions, we found evidence of either no or minimal bias for 2 of the vendors' distributions and evidence of moderate-to-severe bias in at least 1 distribution from each of the other 2 vendors. In both cases in which publication bias was found, we noted instances in which the publishers tended to report only statistically significant correlations and that this practice was detected using publication bias methodology.     

Does Smoking by Pregnant Women Influence IQ, Birth Weight, and Developmental Disabilities in Their Infants? A Methodological Review and Multivariate Analysis

Neuropsychologists are asked frequently to address the issue of the cause of a variety of central nervous system problems that may affect higher cortical function. One such issue is the relationship of maternal smoking to adverse reproductive outcomes involving neocortical insult including mental retardation, learning disabilities, attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, and other insults that may be related to prolonged hypoxic states in utero. The instant paper develops the issue of causation as a scientific inquiry, reviews several traditional, applicable models, and critiques these models. An additional model of motility is proposed and discussed. The issue of the relationship of maternal smoking to adverse reproductive outcomes is then addressed from a review perspective along with new empirical analyses, the latter demonstrating that researchers tend to draw causal conclusions independent of whether the respective design of their studies would support conclusions about the causation of an event. Causal conclusions in the absence of causal designs have often lead to incomplete and incorrect conclusions. It is necessary to match conclusions not only to the outcomes of a research project but also to its design and accompanying limitations.     

控制相关理论述评

在控制感与实际控制行为的区分基础上,回顾了与控制相关的理论,分析了各理论的特点和新近的研究;指出各种控制理论都是从不同的侧面研究控制,自成体系,缺乏沟通;控制概念模糊,理论间重叠严重,尚无一个理论能很好的将它们整合;存在的问题直接导致了控制测评的混乱,阻碍了进一步的分析研究;理清控制感与真实控制之间的关系,对进一步改进和标准化控制感评估有重要意义。     

Church Attendance and Religious Change in Italy, 1968–2010: A Multilevel Analysis of Pooled Datasets

The debate over religious change in Italy is far from having reached unanimous conclusions: some scholars point to an unbroken trend toward a decrease of religiosity, while others highlight the signs of a religious revival, especially in younger generations. Besides difficulties with definitions, different conclusions are also due to a lack of information over a sufficiently long period of time. This problem is tackled here by developing a pooled analysis of repeated cross‐section surveys that span over four decades. Using six different studies, the article analyzes the secularization trend in Italy on the basis of church attendance that, despite well‐founded criticism, continues to be a crucial indicator of this phenomenon. The results, estimated using multilevel models, show that the trend of attendance at Mass in Italy has decreased since the 1960s until today, despite a period of stability at the turn of the 1980s and 1990s. The overall trend looks like a “recumbent S” trend (decrease up to the 1970s, stability in the 1980s, decrease afterwards). Thus, the claims of a religious revival in Italy are not supported by our results.     

The persuasiveness of racial arguments as a subtle measure of racism

These studies provide evidence of the reliability and validity of a new indirect measure of racism, the Racial Argument Scale (RAS). On the RAS, participants rate how well arguments support conclusions that are positive or negative toward Blacks rather than their agreement with the arguments and conclusions. These studies show that the RAS has good internal consistency, high levels of test-retest reliability, good convergent validity with other self-report measures of racism, and does not correlate with social desirability or right-wing authoritarianism. Furthermore, these studies show that the RAS predicts behavioral measures of racism and that the RAS is able to predict positivity and negativity toward Blacks that is not measured by other self-report measures of racism. These studies suggest that the RAS is a reliable and valid measure of racial attitudes.     

BALDEY: A database of auditory lexical decisions

In an auditory lexical decision experiment, 5541 spoken content words and pseudowords were presented to 20 native speakers of Dutch. The words vary in phonological make-up and in number of syllables and stress pattern, and are further representative of the native Dutch vocabulary in that most are morphologically complex, comprising two stems or one stem plus derivational and inflectional suffixes, with inflections representing both regular and irregular paradigms; the pseudowords were matched in these respects to the real words. The BALDEY (“biggest auditory lexical decision experiment yet”) data file includes response times and accuracy rates, with for each item morphological information plus phonological and acoustic information derived from automatic phonemic segmentation of the stimuli. Two initial analyses illustrate how this data set can be used. First, we discuss several measures of the point at which a word has no further neighbours and compare the degree to which each measure predicts our lexical decision response outcomes. Second, we investigate how well four different measures of frequency of occurrence (from written corpora, spoken corpora, subtitles, and frequency ratings by 75 participants) predict the same outcomes. These analyses motivate general conclusions about the auditory lexical decision task. The (publicly available) BALDEY database lends itself to many further analyses.     

Children's Reasoning in Solving Relational Problems of Deduction

This article reports on a study of children's deductive reasoning in solving novel relational problems. Detailed protocols were obtained from 264 children (aged 9- 12 years) who verbalised their thinking as they solved the problems. The study included the development of a three-phase theory based on Johnson-Laird and Byrne's mental models perspective, but with some distinct modifications. These include a focus on the relational complexity entailed in model construction and in premise integration, and the advancement of four reasoning principles that are applied throughout problem solution (in contrast to Johnson-Laird's falsification processes as the hallmark of deductive reasoning). The reported case studies and the results of statistical analyses supported predictions arising from the proposed theory, including the key role of the reasoning principles. The results also showed that problem difficulty is a function of relational complexity, not of the number of models to be constructed, as argued by Johnson-Laird and Byrne.     

The wording of conclusions in relational reasoning

Literature on relational reasoning mainly focuses on the performance question. It is typically argued that problem difficulty relies on the number of "mental models" compatible with the problem. However, no study has ever investigated the wording of conclusions that participants formulate. In the present work, we analyze the relational terms that people use in drawing conclusions from spatial relation problems (A is to the left of B, B is to the left C, D is in front of A, E is in front C, What is the relation between D and E?). We observed a general preference for expressing conclusions with 'left' rather than conclusions with 'right'. We also found that three factors had an influence on the wording of the conclusions: the linguistic form of premises, the question type and the presentation format. On the other hand, the number of models and premise order did not affect the wording of conclusions. Our study shows that the type of conclusion produced provides a new key to identifying the mental processes involved in spatial reasoning. Implications for the two main approaches to reasoning processes (i.e. the analogical and the propositional approaches) are discussed.     

Temporal and spatial dimensions in the perception of environmental problems: An investigation of the concept of environmental hyperopia

Environmental problems have been perceived as more worrying when they take place at greater distances. This phenomenon has been called “environmental hyperopia” ( 9 Uzzell, 2000; 7 Uzzell, Rice, Ballantyne, & Podlucká, 1994). Some studies have demonstrated that local environmental problems are perceived as being less important than the problems generated in other places, such as global warming or Amazon deforestation, unless the problem leads to an immediate risk. This article is part of a broader research programme, which tries to analyse the most relevant variables in the formation of pro‐environmental attitudes. More precisely, our intention is to explore the difference between attitudes about local and global environments. We present a study of the assessment of several environmental problems, in which 12 scales measured the importance given to these problems by a sample of students. The results were analysed with multidimensional methods, allowing us to establish temporal and space dimensions in the perception of environmental problems. The conclusions allowed us not only to explore the social representation of environmental problems, but also to establish priorities and recommendations for future environmental education programmes.     

A meta-analysis of the published research on the effects of child sexual abuse

A meta-analysis of the published research on the effects of child sexual abuse (CSA) was undertaken for 6 outcomes: posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), depression, suicide, sexual promiscuity, victim-perpetrator cycle, and poor academic performance. Thirty-seven studies published between 1981 and 1995 involving 25,367 people were included. Many of the studies were published in 1994 (24; 65%), and most were done in the United States (22; 59%). All six dependent variables were coded, and effect sizes (d) were computed for each outcome. Average unweighted and weighted ds for each of the respective outcome variables were .50 and .40 for PTSD, .63 and .44 for depression, .64 and .44 for suicide, .59 and .29 for sexual promiscuity, .41 and .16 for victim-perpetrator cycle, and .24 and .19 for academic performance. A file drawer analysis indicated that 277 studies with null ds would be required to negate the present findings. The analyses provide clear evidence confirming the link between CSA and subsequent negative short- and long-term effects on development. There were no statistically significant differences on ds when various potentially mediating variables such as gender, socioeconomic status, type of abuse, age when abused, relationship to perpetrator, and number of abuse incidents were assessed. The results of the present meta-analysis support the multifaceted model of traumatization rather than a specific sexual abuse syndrome of CSA.     

Developmental aspects of delinquency and internalizing problems and their association with persistent juvenile substance use between ages 7 and 18.

Analyzed longitudinal data from 3 samples of the Pittsburgh Youth Study on boys ages 7 to 18 to examine the co-occurrence of persistent substance use with other problem behaviors, including attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), persistent delinquency, and persistent internalizing problems (i.e., depressed mood, anxiety, shy or withdrawn behavior). In preadolescence, persistent substance users also tended to be persistent delinquents, and half of this group displayed persistent internalizing problems as well. In adolescence, a third of the persistent substance users did not manifest other persistent problems. Across the samples, the least common substance users were those who manifested persistent internalizing problems only. Logistic regression analyses showed that persistent substance use in preadolescence was predicted by persistent delinquency and internalizing problems and in adolescence by persistent delinquency only. The combination of persistent substance use and delinquency was predicted by oppositional defiant disorder in middle childhood and by persistent internalizing problems in middle to late childhood. ADHD was not a predictor of persistent substance use (and delinquency) in any of the analyses. Results are discussed in terms of developmental models of multiproblem youth with an eye on improving early interventions.     

Areas of Interest as a Signal Detection Problem in Behavioral Eye‐Tracking Research

Decision researchers frequently analyze attention to individual objects to test hypotheses about underlying cognitive processes. Generally, fixations are assigned to objects using a method known as area of interest (AOI). Ideally, an AOI includes all fixations belonging to an object while fixations to other objects are excluded. Unfortunately, due to measurement inaccuracy and insufficient distance between objects, the distributions of fixations to objects may overlap, resulting in a signal detection problem. If the AOI is to include all fixations to an object, it will also likely include fixations belonging to other objects (false positives). In a survey, we find that many researchers report testing multiple AOI sizes when performing analyses, presumably trying to balance the proportion of true and false positive fixations. To test whether AOI size influences the measurement of object attention and conclusions drawn about cognitive processes, we reanalyze four published studies and conduct a fifth tailored to our purpose. We find that in studies in which we expected overlapping fixation distributions, analyses benefited from smaller AOI sizes (0° visual angle margin). In studies where we expected no overlap, analyses benefited from larger AOI sizes (>.5° visual angle margins). We conclude with a guideline for the use of AOIs in behavioral eye‐tracking research. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.