Between Same-Sex Marriages and the Large Hadron Collider : Making Sense of the Precautionary Principle

The Precautionary Principle is a guide to coping with scientific uncertainties in the assessment and management of risks. In recent years, it has moved to the forefront of debates in policy and applied ethics, becoming a key normative tool in policy discussions in such diverse areas as medical and scientific research, health and safety regulation, environmental regulation, product development, international trade, and even judicial review. The principle has attracted critics who claim that it is fundamentally incoherent, too vague to guide policy, and makes demands that are logically and scientifically impossible. In this paper we will answer these criticisms by formulating guidelines for its application that ensure its coherence as a useful normative guide in applied and policy ethics debates. We will also provide analyses of cases that demonstrate how our version of the principle functions in practice.     

Null subjects: a problem for parameter-setting models of language acquisition

Some languages, like English, require overt surface subjects, while others, like Italian and Spanish, allow "null" subjects. How does the young child determine whether or not her language allows null subjects? Modern parameter-setting theory has proposed a solution, in which the child begins acquisition with the null subject parameter set for either the English-like value or the Italian-like value. Incoming data, or the absence thereof, force a resetting of the parameter if the original value was incorrect. This paper argues that the single-value solution cannot work, no matter which value is chosen as the initial one, because of inherent limitations in the child's parser, and because of the presence of misleading input. An alternative dual-value solution is proposed, in which the child begins acquisition with both values available, and uses theory-confirmation procedures to decide which value is best supported by the available data.     

Hierarchical classes models for three-way three-mode binary data: interrelations and model selection

Several hierarchical classes models can be considered for the modeling of three-way three-mode binary data, including the INDCLAS model (Leenen, Van Mechelen, De Boeck, and Rosenberg, 1999), the Tucker3-HICLAS model (Ceulemans, Van Mechelen, and Leenen, 2003), the Tucker2-HICLAS model (Ceulemans and Van Mechelen, 2004), and the Tucker1-HICLAS model that is introduced in this paper. Two questions then may be raised: (1) how are these models interrelated, and (2) given a specific data set, which of these models should be selected, and in which rank? In the present paper, we deal with these questions by (1) showing that the distinct hierarchical classes models for three-way three-mode binary data can be organized into a partially ordered hierarchy, and (2) by presenting model selection strategies based on extensions of the well-known scree test and on the Akaike information criterion. The latter strategies are evaluated by means of an extensive simulation study and are illustrated with an application to interpersonal emotion data. Finally, the presented hierarchy and model selection strategies are related to corresponding work by Kiers (1991) for principal component models for three-way three-mode real-valued data.     

Selectivity, scope, and simplicity of models: a lesson from fitting judgments of perceived depth.

When comparing psychological models a researcher should assess their relative selectivity, scope, and simplicity. The third of these considerations can be measured by the models' parameter counts or equation length, the second by their ability to fit random data, and the first by their differential ability to fit patterned data over random data. These conclusions are based on exploration of integration models reflecting depth judgments. Replication of Massaro's (1988a) results revealed an additive model (Bruno & Cutting, 1988), and Massaro's fuzzy-logical model of perception (FLMP) fit data equally well, but further exploration showed that the FLMP fit random data better. The FLMP's successes may reflect not its sensitivity in capturing psychological process but its scope in fitting any data and its complexity as measured by equation length.     

The role of working memory in information acquisition and decision making: Lessons from the binary prediction task

The effects of memory constraints upon information acquisition and decision making were examined in two experiments using binary prediction tasks, where participants observe outcomes for two options before deciding which one to bet upon. Our studies extend previous investigations to the case where participants learn the structure of the task through observation, but where information acquisition is separated from the task of prediction. Participants with higher cognitive capacity (larger memory span or higher intelligence) were more likely to adopt the “maximizing” strategy (always selecting the more frequent alternative). This finding conflicts with some recent investigations of similar tasks, a contrast that implies that the presence of feedback on choices may be important in determining the strategic actions of high-capacity individuals. Participants selecting the optimal strategy were in turn more efficient in their data acquisition. The behaviour of participants adopting suboptimal choice strategies was consistent with prediction based upon a “narrow window of experience”—that is, seeking to match the characteristics of small samples of observations.     

The use of a real-time computer diary for data acquisition and processing

Behavioural researchers have long relied on the use of diaries for the collection of self-report data. We discuss the characteristics of a programmable hand-held computer used to collect hourly and event generated data for 7 days on 20 subjects with panic disorder. In the application described, subjects answered a series of 19 or more questions on the hour from 0700 to 2300 or when they were having a panic attack. Subjects completed 88% of all the hourly ratings (range 64-98%). The system was well accepted by the subjects and provided relatively inexpensive data collection and management.     

The diagnosticity of individual data for model selection: Comparing signal-detection models of recognition memory

We tested whether the unequal-variance signal-detection (UVSD) and dual-process signal-detection (DPSD) models of recognition memory mimic the behavior of each other when applied to individual data. Replicating previous results, there was no mimicry for an analysis that fit each individual, summed the goodness-of-fit values over individuals, and compared the two sums (i.e., a single model selection). However, when the models were compared separately for each individual (i.e., multiple model selections), mimicry was substantial. To quantify the diagnosticity of the individual data, we used mimicry to calculate the probability of making a model selection error for each individual. For nondiagnostic data (high model selection error), the results were compatible with equal-variance signal-detection theory. Although neither model was justified in this situation, a forced-choice between the UVSD and DPSD models favored the DPSD model for being less flexible. For diagnostic data (low model selection error), the UVSD model was selected more often.     

Model theory for tense logic: Saturated and special models with applications to the tense hierarchy

The aims of this paper are: (1) to present tense-logical versions of such classical notions as saturated and special models; (2) to establish several fundamental existence theorems about these notions; (3) to apply these powerful techniques to tense complexity.In this paper we are concerned exclusively with quantifiedK ₁ (for linear time) with constant domain. Our present research owes much to Bowen [2], Fine [5] and Gabbay [6].     

Godot: A real-time data acquisition and control program for the PET microcomputer

This article discusses a program for the PET microcomputer that is used to record the amount of time a human infant spends attending to one of two stimuli presented via 35-mm slides and a slide projector. The program records the number of attention episodes for either stimulus, the duration of slide presentation, and the number of slides presented. Also controlled are the transfer of data onto cassette tape at the end of the session, the detection of buttonpresses from an external keyboard, and the changing of stimuli. The interfacing used in the system and specialized subroutines are also described.     

When learners surpass their models: the acquisition of American Sign Language from inconsistent input

The present study examines the impact of highly inconsistent input on language acquisition. The American deaf community provides a unique opportunity to observe children exposed to nonnative language models as their only linguistic input. This research is a detailed case study of one child acquiring his native language in such circumstances. It asks whether this child is capable of organizing a natural language out of input data that are not representative of certain natural language principles. Simon is a deaf child whose deaf parents both learned American Sign Language (ASL) after age 15. Simon's only ASL input is provided by his late-learner parents. The study examines Simon's performance at age 7 on an ASL morphology task, compared with eight children who have native signing parents, and also compared with Simon's own parents. The results show that Simon's production of ASL substantially surpasses that of his parents. Simon's parents, like other late learners of ASL, perform below adult native signing criteria, with many inconsistencies and errors in their use of ASL morphology. In contrast, Simon's performance is much more regular, and in fact on most ASL morphemes is equal to that of children exposed to a native signing model. The results thus indicate that Simon is capable of acquiring a regular and orderly morphological rule system for which his input provides only highly inconsistent and noisy data. In addition, the results provide some insight into the mechanisms by which such learning may occur. Although the ASL situation is rare, it reveals clues that may contribute to our understanding of the human capacity for language learning.     

Being seaward-handed: a computational model of the acquisition of language-specific spatial references

Empirical findings of cross-linguistic studies reveal three different frames of spatial reference: intrinsic, relative, and absolute. Of special interest are relative and absolute systems because they have antagonistic logical implications concerning the dependence on standpoint and orientation of the speaker/hearer. On the background of these findings it becomes crucial to show how an agent can form such language-specific spatial representations. In this paper, the system Locator is introduced as a model of concept formation in the spatial domain. It is assumed that an agent creates necessary discriminative features in processes of self-organization and selection and cannot just discover or find them in its environment. A number of simulations show that agents successfully create concepts of either a relative system (German) or an absolute system (Marquesan), relying solely on multimodal input (visual and linguistic).

Exploring the evolved concept of NEWCOMER: Experimental tests of a cognitive model

Enduring human coalitions face the adaptive problem of integrating new members. Although newcomers can provide benefits (e.g., additional labor), newcomers can also create costs (e.g., by free riding). Due to the unique adaptive problems they pose, we hypothesize that the mind contains an evolved concept of NEWCOMER. We test the design of this concept experimentally and show that the activation of the NEWCOMER concept elicits a variety of anti-free rider responses (e.g., a decrease in trust) with adaptively-targeted exceptions (e.g., a minimal increase in exclusion sentiment). These results support the hypothesis that the mind contains specialized concepts for understanding, creating, and sustaining intergenerational coalitions.     

Conditioned inhibition produced by extinction-mediated recovery from the relative stimulus validity effect: a test of acquisition and performance models of empirical retrospective revaluation

Empirical retrospective revaluation is a phenomenon of Pavlovian conditioning and human causal judgment in which posttraining changes in the conditioned response (Pavlovian task) or causal rating (causal judgment task) of a cue occurs in the absence of further training with that cue. Two experiments tested the contrasting predictions made by 2 families of models concerning retrospective revaluation effects. In a conditioned lick-suppression task, rats were given relative stimulus validity training, consisting of reinforcing a compound of conditioned stimuli (CSs) A and X and nonreinforcement of a compound of CSs B and X, which resulted in low conditioned responding to CS X. Massive posttraining extinction of CS A not only enhanced excitatory responding to CS X, but caused CS B to pass both summation (Experiment 1) and retardation (Experiment 2) tests for conditioned inhibition. The inhibitory status of CS B is predicted by the performance-focused extended comparator hypothesis (J. C. Denniston, H. I. Savastano, & R. R. Miller, 2001), but not by acquisition-focused models of empirical retrospective revaluation (e.g., A. Dickinson & J. Burke, 1996; L. J. Van Hamme & E. A. Wasserman, 1994).     

Presidential address: Lessons from infancy: New beginnings in a changing world and a morality for health

Health care professionals working in infancy are optimistic about its development and its incentives for moral connectedness. Recent research shows that such an attitude is grounded in what I summarize under the headings of “fundamental modes of development” and a “basic morality,” features that characterize infancy when there is adequate support from an emotionally available caregiver. Early moral attainments include the infant's developing sense of rules, reciprocity, empathy, and internalized standards. Social referencing, negotiation, and the use of guidance are important processes in late infancy that occur in the context of interpersonal and intrapsychic conflict. Infancy experiences guided by these processes later become a basis for the preschooler's sharing, negotiation, and sense of fairness. These considerations provide lessons for thinking about health as a positive state. They also highlight the importance of positive emotions and shared meaning as we work to prevent and treat developmental problems. We have much to learn from infants and each other, especially as we continue our cross-cultural collaboration and research.     

人类基因组研究与遗传学的历史教训

第１８届国际遗传学大会达成的八点共识对于人类基因组的研究及其应用具有重要意义,也指明了在遗传学及其应用问题上不同文化之间如何解决它们之间分歧的最佳途径。纳粹德国的优生实践和前苏联李森科学派的兴衰都给我们留下了不可忘记的教训。围绕中国母婴保健法的争论反映了科学、伦理和政策的交叉。我们的基因组研究和遗传服务是为了增进个人的健康和促进家庭的幸福,而不能也不应以减少残疾人口为目标。在基因组研究和遗传服务中     

Features of graded category structure: Generalizing the family resemblance and polymorphous concept models

Many real-world categories contain graded structure: certain category members are rated as more typical or representative of the category than others. Research has shown that this graded structure can be well predicted by the degree of commonality across the feature sets of category members. We demonstrate that two prominent feature-based models of graded structure, the family resemblance (Rosch & Mervis, 1975) and polymorphous concept models (Hampton, 1979), can be generalized via the contrast model (Tversky, 1977) to include both common and distinctive feature information, and apply the models to the prediction of typicality in 11 semantic categories. The results indicate that both types of feature information play a role in the prediction of typicality, with common features weighted more heavily for within-category predictions, and distinctive features weighted more heavily for contrast-category predictions. The same pattern of results was found in additional analyses employing rated goodness and exemplar generation frequency. It is suggested that these findings provide insight into the processes underlying category formation and representation.     

Non-associative fear acquisition: a review of the evidence from retrospective and longitudinal research

It is axiomatic that the capacity to experience fear is adaptive, enabling rapid and energetic response to imminent threat or danger. Despite the generally accepted utility of functional fear, the nature of maladaptive fear remains controversial. There is still no consensus about how specific fears and phobias are acquired and modulated. Two major schools of thought are apparent: those suggesting dysfunctional fear arises largely as the result of associative-conditioning processes versus those who favour more biologically based etiological explanations. In this regard, the non-associative model of fear acquisition postulates the existence of a limited number of innate, evolutionary-relevant fears, while emphasising conditioning modes of onset for evolutionary-neutral fears. Recent retrospective and longitudinal studies have tested predictions from the non-associative model. In general, findings support non-associative hypotheses and are difficult to reconcile with neo-conditioning explanations of fear acquisition. These data suggest that four pathways to fear may provide the most parsimonious theory of fear etiology. The theoretical and practical implications of adding a fourth, non-associative path to Rachman's (Behav. Res. Ther. (1977) 15, 375-387) three 'associative' pathways are discussed. Unresolved issues requiring further investigation are considered.     

The common fate model for dyadic data: variations of a theoretically important but underutilized model

Studying dyads, very often there is a theoretical construct that has an effect on both members, such as relationship harmony or shared environment. To model such influences, the common fate model (CFM) is often the most appropriate approach. In this article, we address conceptual and statistical issues in the use of the standard CFM and present a series of variations, all of which are estimated by structural equation modeling (SEM). For indistinguishable dyad members (e.g., gay couples), we describe the use of a multilevel SEM method. Throughout the paper, we draw connections to the actor-partner interdependence model (APIM). We also discuss the analysis of hybrid models that combines both the CFM and the APIM. The models are illustrated using data from heterosexual couples.     

Twenty-Five Years of Groupthink Theory and Research: Lessons from the Evaluation of a Theory

In this paper, we examine the historical development of the groupthink model and discuss recent responses to the body of empirical evidence amassed on the model. We conclude by articulating general lessons implied by the evolution of research on the groupthink model.