Hope over experience: desirability and the persistence of optimism

Many important decisions hinge on expectations of future outcomes. Decisions about health, investments, and relationships all depend on predictions of the future. These expectations are often optimistic: People frequently believe that their preferred outcomes are more likely than is merited. Yet it is unclear whether optimism persists with experience and, surprisingly, whether optimism is truly caused by desire. These are important questions because life's most consequential decisions often feature both strong preferences and the opportunity to learn. We investigated these questions by collecting football predictions from National Football League fans during each week of the 2008 season. Despite accuracy incentives and extensive feedback, predictions about preferred teams remained optimistically biased through the entire season. Optimism was as strong after 4 months as it was after 4 weeks. We exploited variation in preferences and matchups to show that desirability fueled this optimistic bias.     

Hoping for more: The influence of outcome desirability on information seeking and predictions about relative quantities

People must often engage in sequential sampling in order to make predictions about the relative quantities of two options. We investigated how directional motives influence sampling selections and resulting predictions in such cases. We used a paradigm in which participants had limited time to sample items and make predictions about which side of the screen contained more of a critical item. Sampling selections were biased by monetary desirability manipulations, and participants exhibited a desirability bias for both dichotomous and continuous predictions.     

Relative influence of sex composition on job desirability

The purpose of this study was to examine the relative influence which the sex composition of a job exerts on its perceived desirability. The influence of job sex composition was studied in relation to three other factors: security, suitability of type of work, and company recognition. Ninety-five college students rated 108 job profiles on desirability based on various combinations of the four factors studied. The results indicated that sex composition exerted the least influence on job desirability while security and suitability of type of work exerted the greatest influence. It is suggested that past research focusing on the sex composition of a job as a determinant of its desirability has produced findings which are primarily a function of the research method utilized.     

Line bisecting as a predictor of personal optimism and desirability of risky behaviors.

Our goal was to test whether current hemisphere predominance is a predictor of scores on standardized measures of personal optimism and preference for risk. In two between-subject experiments, current hemisphere predominance was measured by the direction and extent of line bisecting errors. Pearson correlations and median splits of the line bisecting errors showed significantly greater personal optimism and preference for risk with left hemisphere predominance. These results support previous research in which manipulation of hemisphere predominance produced similar effects on personal optimism in normal individuals and on risk taking in lesioned and normal samples. We conclude that the association of optimism and risk with left hemisphere predominance can be observed in resting as well as in manipulated situations.     

The influence of dispositional optimism and gender on adolescents' perception of academic stress

This study investigated the role of optimism together with gender, on students' perception of academic stress. Four hundred and thirty secondary school students from Singapore participated in this study and data were collected using two self-report measures: the Life Orientation Test and the Academic Expectation Stress Inventory. Results revealed a significant negative relationship between optimism and academic stress in students. Gender was not a significant predictor of academic stress and no two-way interactions were found between optimism and gender of the participants. Possible explanations for the results were suggested and implications of the findings were discussed.     

Investigating the influence of social desirability on personality factor structure

This study provides a comprehensive investigation into whether social desirability alters the factor structure of personality measures. The study brought together 4 large data sets wherein different organizational samples responded to different personality measures. This facilitated conducting 4 separate yet parallel investigations. Within each data set, individuals identified through a social desirability scale as responding in an honest manner were grouped together, and individuals identified as responding in a highly socially desirable manner were grouped together. Using various analyses, the fit of higher order factor structure models was compared across the 2 groups. Results were the same for each data set. Social desirability had little influence on the higher order factor structures that characterized the relationships among the scales of the personality measures.     

Unpacking outcome dependency: Differentiating effects of dependency and outcome desirability on the processing of goal-relevant information

Outcome dependency has been shown to have a substantial impact on impression formation. Perhaps because the outcome dependency variable is a composite variable (including variation in amount of dependency, desirability of outcome, or both), many different effects have been described by researchers. The current research unpacks the outcome dependency variable by separately examining effects of dependency (when outcome desirability is held constant) and effects of outcome desirability (when amount of dependency is held constant). Using research methods adapted from those used in the attitudes domain, variation in the amount of dependency on a target person influenced the level of objective processing of target information (when outcomes were not substantial, Experiment 1), but variation in the desirability of the outcomes influenced biases in the processing of information (when dependency was relatively high, Experiment 2). Furthermore, personal motivation mediated effects of desirable outcomes on positive biases in processing (Experiment 3).     

Cognitive bias of optimism and its influence on psychological well-being.

An investigation of the cognitive bias observed in optimism and the influence of optimism on psychological well-being was conducted. The cognitive bias was assumed to be related to the repressive style of information processing, represented by the trait scale of the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory and the Social Desirability scale. Optimism and well-being were measured by the Life Orientation Test and the Social Optimism scale as well as by the Life Satisfaction and Depression scales, respectively. These scales were applied to a sample of 200 individuals. Trait Anxiety and Social Desirability led to a high multiple correlation with the Life Orientation Test (R = .54) and a moderate multiple correlation with the Social Optimism scale (R = .30). Higher correlations were obtained for the expectation of a positive than of a negative future. Both the Life Orientation Test and the Social Optimism scale contributed to the high multiple correlation with psychological well-being (R = .52).     

The desirability of control

The psychological construct of desirability of control was related to several theoretical statements (e.g., Kelley, 1971; White, 1959) and areas of current research (e.g., Glass & Singer, 1972; Deci, 1975) in psychology. A scale designed to measure individual differences in the general level of motivation to control the events in one's life was presented. The Desirability of Control Scale was found to have substantial internal consistency (.80) and test-retest reliability (.75), as well as discriminant validity from measures of locus of control (Rotter, 1966) and social desirability (Crowne & Marlowe, 1960). The results of an illusion of control study (cf. Langer, 1975) provided construct validation: only subjects high in the desire for control displayed a belief in personal control over chance outcomes. Construct validation was also provided from studies on learned helplessness and hypnosis. The practical, as well as theoretical, value of the instrument was discussed.This research was facilitated by National Science Foundation grant BNS78-08834 to Harris Cooper.     

The future of optimism

Recent theoretical discussions of optimism as an inherent aspect of human nature converge with empirical investigations of optimism as an individual difference to show that optimism can be a highly beneficial psychological characteristic linked to good mood, perseverance, achievement, and physical health. Questions remain about optimism as a research topic and more generally as a societal value. Is the meaning of optimism richer than its current conceptualization in cognitive terms? Are optimism and pessimism mutually exclusive? What is the relationship between optimism and reality, and what are the costs of optimistic beliefs that prove to be wrong? How can optimism be cultivated? How does optimism play itself out across different cultures? Optimism promises to be one of the important topics of interest to positive social science, as long as it is approached in an even-handed way.     

The influence of status and sex-typing on assessments of occupational outcome

In order to investigate the relative strengths of status and sex-typing of occupations on evaluations of job outcomes, this study varied sex of subject, sex of stimulus person, status of occupation, sex-typing of occupation, and job outcome in a three-between, two-within factorial design. Contrary to previous research, subjects' beliefs about stimulus persons' affective reactions to job outcomes were not consistent with rigid sex-typing of jobs. Instead, the data suggest that crossing the sex-typing barrier in occupations is receiving growing acceptance, and that subjects are aware of sex segregation and discrimination in the labor force. Other data suggest that subjects' beliefs about job outcomes are influenced by belief in a just world.The authors wish to thank Walter G. Stephan for commenting on an earlier version of this article.     

Relationships among optimism, coping styles, psychopathology, and counseling outcome

This study had two objectives. The first objective was to evaluate the discriminant validity of optimism by examining the relationships between optimism and coping styles, while controlling for psychopathology. The second objective was to evaluate how well optimism, coping styles, and psychopathology predicted counseling outcome. Participants consisted of 96 college students involved in individual counseling at a university counseling center located in the southeastern United States. Consistent with previous studies, optimism was positively correlated with task-oriented coping and social diversion (social support), and it was negatively correlated with emotion-oriented coping and avoidance (distraction) coping. However, after partially out psychopathology, only the relationship between optimism and task-oriented coping remained statistically different from zero. Both optimism and psychopathology predicted two measures of counseling outcome. In contrast, coping styles were not useful for predicting any of the outcome measures. Results provide limited support for the discriminant validity of optimism in general and the Life Orientation Test in particular.     

The measurement of optimism and pessimism

Procedures employed in the development and validation of a new Optimism & Pessimism Scale are described, and information about test-retest reliability is reported. Internal consistency analyses and other data suggest that optimism and pessimism are not polar opposites and bring up questions about the intrerelatedness of the cognitive and affective realms. The magnitude of the correlation between pessimism and measures of anxiety suggests a link between this measure and the Negative Affectivity construct, and the potential relationships among optimism, pessimism, the Pollyanna Principle, and Positive and Negative Affect are discussed. Conceptually, it appears that optimism and pessimism may aid in psychological defense by helping to bind anxiety. This report was based on theses submitted separately by the second and third authors to the Division of Graduate Studies and Research of the University of Cincinnati, both in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Master of Arts degree. For reprints of the article or copies of the Optimism & Pessimism Scale, please direct requests to William N. Dember, Department of Psychology, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, Ohio 45221.     

The impact of social desirability on psychometric measures of aggression

Although many studies have focused on the effects of social desirability in personality measures, few have analysed its effects on such highly undesirable behaviour as aggressiveness. The present study analyzes the impact of social desirability on measures of direct and indirect aggression and on the relationships between both kinds of aggression with impulsivity, using a method that enables the content factors of the measures to be isolated from social desirability. Results showed that aggression measures are highly affected by social desirability and that the relationships between the two forms of aggression and impulsivity are due to the content measured by the tests and not to a common social desirability factor.     

The measurement of optimism and pessimism

Procedures employed in the development and validation of a new Optimism & Pessimism Scale are described, and information about test-retest reliability is reported. Internal consistency analyses and other data suggest that optimism and pessimism are not polar opposites and bring up questions about the intrerelatedness of the cognitive and affective realms. The magnitude of the correlation between pessimism and measures of anxiety suggests a link between this measure and the Negative Affectivity construct, and the potential relationships among optimism, pessimism, the Pollyanna Principle, and Positive and Negative Affect are discussed. Conceptually, it appears that optimism and pessimism may aid in psychological defense by helping to bind anxiety. This report was based on theses submitted separately by the second and third authors to the Division of Graduate Studies and Research of the University of Cincinnati, both in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Master of Arts degree.     

Effect of anxiety on optimism

A quasi-experimental study was designed to investigate the possibility that people's optimism is reduced if they experience a specific form of negative affect, namely, anxiety. The level of optimism held by two groups of English students toward a range of life events was examined. Students taking examinations, the experimental group, were in an anxious state. Students who had completed their examinations, the control group, were less anxious. Those in the anxious group were less optimistic about the likelihood of both negative and positive events happening to them than were those in the control group. They were also less optimistic about the likelihood of events happening to others and of events happening to them in comparison with others. It was concluded that negative affect in general, and anxiety in particular, may have a global effect upon optimism: It may reduce optimism toward a broad range of judgments.     

The influence of generalization decrement on the outcome of a feature-positive discrimination

In a feature-positive discrimination subjects receive training in which reinforced presentations of a compound, AB⁺, are intermixed among non-reinforced presentations of one element, A^o. The three reported experiments compared the results of this procedure when using a light or a tone as the feature-positive stimulus, B. In all three experiments, the tone elicited a stronger conditioned response than the light when it was presented alone. The main concern of Experiments 2 and 3 was to examine whether this effect was due to training being incomplete for subjects receiving the light as the B element. In Experiment 2 it was found that extended discrimination training did not diminish the difference between the properties of the light and the tone. Experiment 3 revealed that this effect was not due to differences in the asymptotic associative strength of either A or the compound. It is argued that these results are not readily compatible with contemporary theories of learning, and an alternative account is presented.