协变量相关对时变效应模型参数估计的影响

时变效应模型被广泛应用于密集追踪研究中,研究者往往会同时纳入2个或以上协变量。然而,协变量相关对其参数估计的影响较少被研究者关注。本研究在不同类型协变量的情境下,采用蒙特卡洛模拟,探讨协变量相关对时变效应模型参数估计的影响,结果表明：（1）在两种协变量类型的情境下,协变量相关都会影响时变效应模型斜率函数β_1和斜率函数β_2参数估计的准确性;（2）两种协变量类型的情境下,协变量相关和样本量的交互作用都会影响时变效应模型斜率函数β_1和斜率函数β_2参数估计的准确性;（3）两种协变量类型的情境下,样本量、观测数据缺失率主要通过主效应影响时变效应模型参数估计的准确性。     

密集追踪数据分析：模型及其应用

在心理学、教育学和临床医学等领域, 越来越多的研究者开始关注个体内部的行为、心理、临床效果等随时间而产生的动态变化, 重视针对个体的差异化建模。密集追踪是一种在短时间内对个体进行多个时间节点密集追踪测量的方法, 更适合用于研究个体内部心理过程等的动态变化及其作用机制。近年来, 密集追踪成为心理学研究的一大热点, 但许多密集追踪的研究分析仍停留在较为传统的方法。方法学领域已涌现出较多用于密集追踪数据分析的模型方法, 较为主流的模型包括以动态结构方程模型(Dynamic Structural Equation Model, DSEM)为代表的自上而下的建模方法, 以及以组迭代多模型估计(Group Iterative Multiple Model Estimation, GIMME)为代表的自下而上的建模方法。二者均可以方便地对密集追踪数据中的自回归及交叉滞后效应进行建模。     

纵向数据的调节效应分析

目前调节效应检验主要是基于截面数据, 本文讨论纵向(追踪)数据的调节效应分析。如果自变量X和因变量Y有纵向数据, 调节效应可分为三类：调节变量Z不随时间变化、Z随时间变化、调节变量从自变量或因变量中产生。评介了基于多层模型、多层结构方程模型、交叉滞后模型和潜变量增长模型的纵向数据的多种调节效应分析方法。调节效应的分解和潜调节结构方程法的使用是纵向数据的调节效应分析的两大特点。对基于四类模型的调节效应分析方法进行综合比较后, 总结出一个纵向数据的调节效应分析流程。随后用实际例子演示如何进行纵向数据的调节效应分析, 并给出相应的Mplus程序。随后展望了纵向数据的调节效应分析的拓展方向, 例如基于动态结构方程模型的密集追踪数据的调节效应分析。     

对腐败的“心理绑架”效应的验证性内容分析

"心理绑架"是指绑架者为了获取利益,以人情关系接近被绑架者并建立紧密联结,最终以人情关系达成工具性目的的一种效应。为了验证腐败中的"心理绑架"效应,探究清廉的官员涉入腐败的心理过程,研究者对19篇因腐败而落马的官员的自白书进行了内容分析。研究从三种角度对"心理绑架"效应进行分析:(1)身份分析探究了官员与行贿者双方在互动中各自的特点;(2)过程分析梳理了心理绑架发生的四个阶段,即关系建立、关系巩固、关系使用与关系终止阶段;(3)特征分析对心理绑架过程中的重要特征进行了概括和总结,包括在关系巩固阶段表现出的非对称互惠、循序渐进和情感性输出三种特征,以及在关系使用阶段表现出的软性胁迫特征。     

分类精确性指数Entropy在潜剖面分析中的表现:一项蒙特卡罗模拟研究

本研究通过蒙特卡洛模拟考查了分类精确性指数Entropy及其变式受样本量、潜类别数目、类别距离和指标个数及其组合的影响情况。研究结果表明:(1)尽管Entropy值与分类精确性高相关,但其值随类别数、样本量和指标数的变化而变化,很难确定唯一的临界值;(2)其他条件不变的情况下,样本量越大,Entropy的值越小,分类精确性越差;(3)类别距离对分类精确性的影响具有跨样本量和跨类别数的一致性;(4)小样本(N=50~100)的情况下,指标数越多,Entropy的结果越好;(5)在各种条件下Entropy对分类错误率比其它变式更灵敏。     

被试自身人手初始状态对心理旋转加工的影响:眼动研究

利用眼动追踪技术,探讨在左右手判断任务条件下人手心理旋转加工是否受到被试自身人手初始状态的影响.两个实验的反应时数据和眼动数据均发现:(1)心理旋转加工受被试自身人手初始状态的影响,表现出一致性效应;(2)显著的内旋效应;(3)被试心理旋转加工时注视点取样存在着不均衡性.这些结果表明:在左右手判断任务中,心理旋转加工的对象是被试自身人手的表象,是自我参照的心理旋转,并且内旋效应是由被试对自身人手表象进行旋转时受到人手生理机制约束所致,而不是被试旋转刺激图片的表象由"生理机制约束知识"影响所致.     

置信区间宽度等高线图在线性混合效应模型样本量规划中的应用

线性混合效应模型在分析具有嵌套结构的心理学实验数据时具有明显优势。本文提出了置信区间宽度等高线图用于该模型的样本量规划。通过等高线图,确定同时符合检验力、效应量准确性以及置信区间宽度要求的被试量和试次数。结合关注被试内实验效应和被试变量调节效应的两类典型模型,通过两个模拟研究,采用基于蒙特卡洛模拟方法,探索效应量、随机效应大小和被试变量类型对置信区间宽度等高线图及样本量规划结果的影响。     

纵向汉明距离判别法：对潜在属性的发展追踪

研究通过在纵向诊断数据分析中引入计算简单、耗时少的汉明距离判别法(HDD),提出了纵向HDD (Long-HDD)。与HDD相比,Long-HDD额外使用汉明距离刻画个体在相邻时间点上对属性掌握的相依性,以利用前一时间点信息提高当前时间点的分类准确性。三个模拟研究的结果主要表明：在分析纵向诊断数据时,与参数化模型相比,Long-HDD的分类准确性几乎不受样本量影响,在样本量较小时表现更优;且其计算耗时更少,更有利于提供及时性诊断反馈。实证研究结果表明Long-HDD可用于分析实践测评数据,且其追踪诊断结果与参数化模型的存在一致性。     

纵向数据的中介效应分析

目前中介效应检验主要是基于截面数据,但许多时候截面数据的中介分析不适合进行因果推断,因而需要收集历时性的纵向数据,进行纵向数据的中介分析。评介了基于交叉滞后面板模型、多层线性模型和潜变量增长模型的纵向数据的中介分析方法及其四个发展。第一,中介效应随时间变化,如连续时间模型、多层时变系数模型。第二,中介效应随个体变化,如随机效应的交叉滞后面板模型和多层自回归模型。第三,中介模型的整合,如交叉滞后面板模型与多层线性模型整合为多层自回归模型。第四,中介检验方法的发展,建议使用Monte Carlo、Bootstrap和贝叶斯法进行纵向数据的中介分析。总结出一个纵向数据的中介分析流程并给出相应的Mplus程序。随后展望了纵向数据的中介分析的拓展方向。     

父母心理控制与青少年焦虑的关系:一项交叉滞后研究

采用交叉滞后设计,以父母心理控制问卷和儿童显在焦虑量表为研究工具,对北京市13所中学1419名初一学生进行了连续三年的追踪测查,探讨父母心理控制与青少年焦虑之间的关系。结果表明：（1）三年间父母心理控制和青少年焦虑之间均呈显著正相关;（2）父母心理控制与青少年焦虑的关系基本符合互惠效应模型,且相比于父母效应,儿童效应更稳定,表现为：初一的青少年焦虑能显著正向预测初二的父母心理控制,同时,初二的青少年焦虑也能显著正向预测初三的父母心理控制;但只有初二的父母心理控制可以显著正向预测初三的青少年焦虑;（3）父母心理控制和青少年焦虑的互惠效应模型不存在显著的儿童性别差异。     

A time-varying effect model for intensive longitudinal data

Understanding temporal change in human behavior and psychological processes is a central issue in the behavioral sciences. With technological advances, intensive longitudinal data (ILD) are increasingly generated by studies of human behavior that repeatedly administer assessments over time. ILD offer unique opportunities to describe temporal behavioral changes in detail and identify related environmental and psychosocial antecedents and consequences. Traditional analytical approaches impose strong parametric assumptions about the nature of change in the relationship between time-varying covariates and outcomes of interest. This article introduces time-varying effect models (TVEMs) that explicitly model changes in the association between ILD covariates and ILD outcomes over time in a flexible manner. In this article, we describe unique research questions that the TVEM addresses, outline the model-estimation procedure, share a SAS macro for implementing the model, demonstrate model utility with a simulated example, and illustrate model applications in ILD collected as part of a smoking-cessation study to explore the relationship between smoking urges and self-efficacy during the course of the pre- and postcessation period.     

Modeling the complexity of dynamic,momentary interpersonal behavior: Applying the time-varying effect model to test predictions from interpersonal theory

This paper demonstrates a recently-popularized quantitative method, the time-varying effect model (TVEM), in describing dynamic, momentary interpersonal processes implicated by Interpersonal Theory. We investigated moment-to-moment complementarity in affiliation and control behaviors (i.e., correspondence in affiliation and reciprocity in control between married dyad members) in a five-minute interaction (N = 135), and how complementarity changed over time. Overall, results supported complementarity in affiliation and control. Moreover, effects were time-varying: Complementarity in affiliation increased over time and complementary in control changed over time in a cyclical manner. Dyadic adjustment moderated the strength in complementarity in control during specific timeframes. We discuss implications of these results and future directions. The findings support the utility of TVEM for studying dynamic and time-dependent interpersonal processes.     

Identification of Real and Artifactual Moderators of Effect Size in Meta-Analysis

This article argues that while meta-analytic studies are widely used in psychological literature, heterogeneity and the potential for confounding remain major problems in the interpretation of meta-analytic study results. The article demonstrates the use of exploratory analysis including graphical methods prior to meta-analysis, and introduces a methodology to screen for artifactual effects. These procedures are illustrated on effect size data comparing depression treatment outcome from psychotherapy versus pharmacotherapy. Results support prior findings of a nonsignificant difference in effect size between the two treatments. They also support findings that treatment type accounts for only a very small proportion of outcome variance. However, the results indicate that some previously reported covariates of depression treatment outcome may be artifactual.     

新世纪20年国内心理统计方法研究回顾

新世纪头20年, 国内心理学11本专业期刊一共发表了213篇统计方法研究论文。研究范围主要包括以下10类(按论文篇数排序)：结构方程模型、测验信度、中介效应、效应量与检验力、纵向研究、调节效应、探索性因子分析、潜在类别模型、共同方法偏差和多层线性模型。对各类做了简单的回顾与梳理。结果发现, 国内心理统计方法研究的广度和深度都不断增加, 研究热点在相互融合中共同发展; 但综述类论文比例较大, 原创性研究论文比例有待提高, 研究力量也有待加强。     

Psychological impact of colorectal cancer screening.

This article examines the psychological impact of participating in sigmoidoscopy screening for colorectal cancer prevention. The 1st study examined psychological well-being at 3 months, in relation to screening outcome, in 4,153 individuals. The 2nd study used longitudinal data to examine changes in psychological functioning from before to after screening in relation both to screening outcome and baseline indicators of vulnerability. There were few psychological differences between those who had received negative results or had polyps detected. These findings were confirmed in the longitudinal study, which also found no evidence for vulnerability to adverse effects among those who were initially most anxious or who perceived their risk of cancer to be higher. The longitudinal data suggested that screening might produce transient positive effects.     

Power analysis for multivariate and repeated measures designs: A flexible approach using the SPSS MANOVA procedure

Although power analysis is an important component in the planning and implementation of research designs, it is often ignored. Computer programs for performing power analysis are available, but most have limitations, particularly for complex multivariate designs. An SPSS procedure is presented that can be used for calculating power for univariate, multivariate, and repeated measures models with and without time-varying and time-constant covariates. Three examples provide a framework for calculating power via this method: an ANCOVA, a MANOVA, and a repeated measures ANOVA with two or more groups. The benefits and limitations of this procedure are discussed.     

Costs of simultaneous coping with emotional dissonance and self-control demands at work: results from two German samples

In the present study, we examine interactive effects of emotional dissonance (ED) and self-control demands (SCDs; impulse control, resisting distractions, and overcoming inner resistances) on emotional exhaustion, depersonalization, depressive symptoms, and absenteeism. We derived the prediction of interactive effects from the well-founded theoretical argument that both sources of work stress draw on and compete for a common limited regulatory resource. On the basis of 2 German samples (1 cross-sectional and 1 longitudinal sample; NTOTAL = 367), 7 of the 8 interactions tested were found to explain significant proportions of variance in all 4 outcomes considered over and beyond that accounted for by demographic characteristics, outcome stability (longitudinal sample), and main effects. Consistent with our hypotheses, the positive relations of 1 of both stressors (ED or SCDs) to psychological strain and absenteeism were amplified as a function of the other stressor. Theoretical and practical implications of the findings are discussed.