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An experimental study compared the effects of three group decision-making schemes. A nominal voting scheme produced the highest satisfaction with the group decision-making process, and the lowest amount of expressed negative socio-emotional behaviors, but also produced the lowest feelings of personal participation. A consensus scheme produced nearly the opposite results—with high felt participation, but also a high degree of negative socio-emotional behaviors, and low satisfaction with the group decision-making process. Apparently the more structured nominal voting scheme reduces the interpersonal give-and-take that can lead to negative socio-emotional behavior, but that also gives a feeling of participation.  相似文献   

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This paper describes a new mathematical programming approach to sequential decision problems that have an underlying decision tree structure. The approach, based upon a characterization of strategies as extreme points of a 0–1 polytope called the ‘decision tree polytope’, is particularly suited to the direct examination of risk-return and other tradeoffs amongst strategies. However, it can also be used for conventional utility maximization if a utility function is available. Further, the approach requires no algorithmic development—it can be implemented using commercially available algebraic modeling software and can solve large problems. A related, and already known, approach can be used for some more general Markov decision problems. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

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Decision makers are often unable to choose between the options that they are offered. In these settings they typically defer their decision, that is, delay the decision to a later point in time or avoid the decision altogether. In this paper, we outline eight behavioral findings regarding the causes and consequences of choice deferral that cognitive theories of decision making should be able to capture. We show that these findings can be accounted for by a deferral-based time limit applied to existing sequential sampling models of preferential choice. Our approach to modeling deferral as a time limit in a sequential sampling model also makes a number of novel predictions regarding the interactions between choice probabilities, deferral probabilities, and decision times, and we confirm these predictions in an experiment. Choice deferral is a key feature of everyday decision making, and our paper illustrates how established theoretical approaches can be used to understand the cognitive underpinnings of this important behavioral phenomenon.  相似文献   

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Richard Jeffrey 《Synthese》1981,48(3):473-492
The approach to decision theory floated in my 1965 book is reviewed (I), challenged in various related ways (II–V) and defended, firstad hoc (II–IV) and then by a general argument of Ellery Ells's (VI). Finally, causal decision theory (in a version sketched in VII) is exhibited as a special case of my 1965 theory, according to the Eellsian argument.  相似文献   

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The theory of decision making   总被引:23,自引:0,他引:23  
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Responding to calls for theoretical development in research on decision styles, this article focuses on their structural relationships. A two-component model of decision styles is proposed. One component, pertaining to dual process theories of thinking, is concerned with the processes people use to make decisions, and the other is concerned with processes used to regulate decisions (e.g. whether they should be made immediately or delayed). The results of a first study (N = 629) using items from a comprehensive decision style measure (the Decision Styles Questionnaire), support the two-component model. The results of a second study (N = 305), based on an alternative set of style measures, provide support for an extended version of the model. Implications of the theory and research findings for future work on decision styles are discussed.  相似文献   

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The research reported in this paper follows the perspective that decision making is a meaningful act that conveys information. Furthermore, the potential meanings associated with decision options may affect the decisions themselves. This idea is examined in the contexts of compensation, donation, and exchange. In general, judgments were relation dependent and meaning dependent. Furthermore, the results show nonmonotonicities and limited substitutability in a pattern that challenges straightforward ways of mapping decisions onto a common currency of utility.  相似文献   

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Judgment-by-outcomes denotes basing retrospective evaluation of decisions on the valence of their outcomes (success versus failure). Although decisions are typically evaluated in social contexts, so far judgment-by-outcomes has been studied without regard to this context. This study examines the moderating effect of evaluator's identification with the decision maker (the one-of-us-effect) on the influence of outcome information on the evaluation of Arab and Jewish subjects were presented with two cases recounting operations by either Arab or Jewish underground directed against the British authorities in Palestine. One case was a success (from the underground's point of view) and one ended in failure. Consistent with the one-of-us effect, identification with the decision maker variably canceled the influence of outcome information altogether, accentuated or weakened its influence, or determined which outcome constituted successful and unsuccessful outcomes. The one-of-us effect exercised a differential influence over different facets of decision evaluation, influencing most strongly the assignment of sanctions (in-group decision makers were mostly rewarded, out-group decision-makers were mostly punished regardless of outcomes). Next, in order of potency, the effect influenced the evaluation of decision justification, the evaluation of the decision maker, and the evaluation of the quality of decision process.  相似文献   

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