Differences between probability and frequency judgments: The role of individual differences in working memory capacity

Most theories of probability judgment assume that judgments are made by comparing the strength of a focal hypothesis relative to the strength of alternative hypotheses. In contrast, research suggests that frequency judgments are assessed using a non-comparative process; the strength of the focal hypothesis is assessed without comparing it to the strength of alternative hypotheses. We tested this distinction between probability and frequency judgments using the alternative outcomes paradigm (Windschitl, Young, & Jenson, 2002). Assuming that judgments of probability (but not judgments of frequency) entail comparing the focal hypothesis with alternative hypotheses, we hypothesized that probability judgments would be sensitive to the distribution of the alternative hypotheses and would be negatively correlated with individual differences in working memory (WM) capacity. In contrast, frequency judgments should be unrelated to the distribution of the alternatives and uncorrelated with WM-capacity. Results supported the hypotheses.     

Contrasting stochastic and support theory accounts of subadditivity

Numerous studies have found that likelihood judgment typically exhibits subadditivity in which judged probabilities of events are less than the sum of judged probabilities of constituent events. Whereas traditional accounts of subadditivity attribute this phenomenon to deterministic sources, this paper demonstrates both formally and empirically that subadditivity is systematically influenced by the stochastic variability of judged probabilities. First, making rather weak assumptions, we prove that regressive error (or variability) in mapping covert probability judgments to overt responses is sufficient to produce subadditive judgments. Experiments follow in which participants provided repeated probability estimates. The results support our model assumption that stochastic variability is regressive in probability estimation tasks and show the contribution of such variability to subadditivity. The theorems and the experiments focus on within-respondent variability, but most studies use between-respondent designs. Numerical simulations extend the work to contrast within- and between-respondent measures of subadditivity. Methodological implications of all the results are discussed, emphasizing the importance of taking stochastic variability into account when estimating the role of other factors (such as the availability bias) in producing subadditive judgments.     

Mind-reading in strategic interaction: The impact of perceived similarity on projection and stereotyping

In social dilemmas, negotiations, and other forms of strategic interaction, mind-reading—intuiting another party’s preferences and intentions—has an important impact on an actor’s own behavior. In this paper, we present a model of how perceivers shift between social projection (using one’s own mental states to intuit a counterpart’s mental states) and stereotyping (using general assumptions about a group to intuit a counterpart’s mental states). Study 1 extends prior work on perceptual dilemmas in arms races, examining Americans’ perceptions of Chinese attitudes toward military escalation. Study 2 adapts a prisoner’s dilemma, pairing participants with outgroup targets. Study 3 employs an ultimatum game, asking male and female participants to make judgments about opposite sex partners. Study 4 manipulates perceived similarity as well as counterpart stereotype in a principal–agent context. Across the studies, we find evidence for our central prediction: higher levels of perceived similarity are associated with increased projection and reduced stereotyping.     

“Everybody knows it’s true”: Social dominance orientation and right-wing authoritarianism moderate false consensus for stereotypic beliefs

European American university students (N = 89) judged the percentage of African Americans who possess 16 traits (e.g., poor, violent, and emotionally expressive) and then estimated how other students would make the same judgments. Participants also completed measures of social dominance orientation (SDO) and right-wing authoritarianism (RWA). Individuals with both high SDO and high RWA held the least positive views of African Americans. False consensus emerged in the form of a significant positive average within-person partial correlation between participants’ own ratings and their judgments of how other students would respond, controlling for the actual responses of other students. False consensus was positively related to SDO and a significant SDO × RWA interaction indicated that false consensus was highest for participants with both high SDO and high RWA. Results suggest that hierarchy-legitimizing beliefs in the form of stereotypes may be sustained internally through false consensus, especially among those most prone to prejudice.     

Social Skills,Social Support,and Psychological Distress: A Test of the Social Skills Deficit Vulnerability Model

The social skills deficit vulnerability model predicts that poor social skills minimize opportunities to acquire social support, in turn, leading to the proliferation of psychological distress. This prediction was tested in a 2‐wave longitudinal study that assessed 211 emerging adults at Time 1 (T1), with a 70% response rate 1 year later at Time 2 (T2). The results indicated that, after controlling for psychological distress at T1, social skills at T1 had an indirect effect on lower psychological distress at T2, through higher social support. Thus, people with poor social skills may be vulnerable to the development of psychological distress because they have less access the protective effects of social support.     

The influence of decision time on sensitivity for consequences,moral norms,and preferences for inaction: Time,moral judgments,and the CNI model

It is often discussed that moral judgments are either consistent with the principle of utilitarianism or with the principle of deontology. Utilitarianism is a moral principle stating that the right act is the one that produces the best overall outcome. Deontology represents an ethical position indicating that the morality of an action depends on the intrinsic nature of the action regardless of the consequences. Criticism on the structure of moral dilemmas includes the problem that these dilemmas confound norms and consequences. Recently, a multinomial model (the CNI model) was developed to disentangle and measure sensitivity to consequences (C), sensitivity to moral norms (N), and general preference for inaction versus action (I), respectively. In Experiment 1, we examined the influence of time pressure on moral judgments using the CNI model. We found that time pressure influenced moral dilemma judgments by decreasing participants' sensitivity for consequences. There were no significant effects of time pressure on participants' sensitivity to norms and general preference for inaction. Furthermore, in Experiment 2, we examined the link of reaction times to moral judgments more closely by fitting a hierarchical Bayesian version of the CNI model. Longer reaction times lead to an increase in parameter N, and there was no influence of reaction times on parameter C or I.     

Let me read your mind: Personality judgments based on a person’s natural stream of thought

Past research on the accuracy of personality judgments has largely focused on person perception scenarios that are public in nature (e.g., face-to-face interactions, personal websites). This study investigated the accuracy of personality judgments on the basis of highly private information: a person’s natural stream of thought. Nine naïve judges rated the personality of 90 targets on the basis of their 20-min stream-of-consciousness essays. Judges’ level of accuracy was significant and substantial for all Big Five dimensions. The substantial and relatively uniform accuracy across all Big Five dimensions suggests that a person’s moment-to-moment thoughts provide good information for the accurate judgment of personality in general rather than specific diagnostic information for the accurate judgment of private traits such as Neuroticism.     

The Ecology of Teachers’ Experiences with Violence and Lack of Administrative Support

Teacher‐directed violence is a common, yet understudied, phenomenon. Perpetrators of violence against teachers include not just students, but also administrators, parents, and colleagues. Administrators are key stakeholders when it comes to shaping school climate and safety that can reduce or increase the negative impact of violence against teachers. In this study, 237 teachers’ qualitative responses from a larger sample of 2,431 anonymous, online survey responses were examined to better understand their experiences with incidents of violence and how administrators played a role in these experiences. Results reveal that lack of administrator support negatively impacts teachers at multiple levels, including teachers’ feelings (individual); challenges associated with addressing issues related to students, parents, and other perpetrators (interpersonal); and school systems and policies (organizational). This study highlights the importance of administrative support and illustrates how administrators’ actions and inactions can have ripple effects at each level of the school microcosm. Implications for research, practice, and policy are discussed.     

The Structure of Social Exchange in Self-help Support Groups: Development of a Measure

Self-help support groups are indigenous community resources designed to help people manage a variety of personal challenges, from alcohol abuse to xeroderma pigmentosum. The social exchanges that occur during group meetings are central to understanding how people benefit from participation. This paper examines the different types of social exchange behaviors that occur during meetings, using two studies to develop empirically distinct scales that reliably measure theoretically important types of exchange. Resource theory informed the initial measurement development efforts. Exploratory factor analyses from the first study led to revisions in the factor structure of the social exchange scales. The revised measure captured the exchange of emotional support, experiential information, humor, unwanted behaviors, and exchanges outside meetings. Confirmatory factor analyses from a follow-up study with a different sample of self-help support groups provided good model fit, suggesting the revised structure accurately represented the data. Further, the scales demonstrated good convergent and discriminant validity with related constructs. Future research can use the scales to identify aspects of social exchange that are most important in improving health outcomes among self-help support group participants. Groups can use the scales in practice to celebrate strengths and address weaknesses in their social exchange dynamics.     

Coaction and upward social comparison reduce the illusory conjunction effect: Support for distraction-conflict theory

This article proposes an integration of Festinger’s (1954) social comparison theory and Baron’s (1986) distraction-conflict theory of the social facilitation-inhibition effect, which successfully predicts attentional focusing in coaction when social comparison represents a distraction. Two experiments confronted participants with the illusory conjunction task (Treisman, 1998), where illusions occur because of the lack of attentional processing of central cues. If coaction, like upward comparison, is distracting and thereby enhances the attention allocated to central cues (here the target’s features) at the expense of peripheral cues (here distractors), then a reduction should be found in the illusions. Experiment 1 indeed showed a lower rate of conjunctive errors under upward comparison than under downward comparison. Experiment 2 specified that this effect was due to downward comparison effectively reducing distraction, with upward comparison only maintaining it, as compared to mere coaction.     

Interpersonal similarity as a social distance dimension: Implications for perception of others’ actions

Building on the assumption that interpersonal similarity is a form of social distance, the current research examines the manner in which similarity influences the representation and judgment of others’ actions. On the basis of a construal level approach, we hypothesized that greater levels of similarity would increase the relative weight of subordinate and secondary features of information in judgments of others’ actions. The results of four experiments showed that compared to corresponding judgments of a dissimilar target, participants exposed to a similar target person identified that person’s actions in relatively more subordinate means-related rather than superordinate ends-related terms (Experiment 1), perceived his or her actions to be determined more by feasibility and less by desirability concerns (Experiment 3), and gave more weight to secondary aspects in judgments of the target’s decisions (Experiment 2) and performance (Experiment 4). Implications for the study of interpersonal similarity, as well as social distance in general, are discussed.     

Perceptual,affective, and cognitive judgments of odors: pleasantness and handedness effects

The present study sought to examine the differential processing of pleasant, neutral, and unpleasant odors. The effects of the nostril stimulated (left or right) and the type of judgment (perceptual, affective, or cognitive) performed on the olfactory stimuli were also studied. To this end, 64 subjects were asked to smell pleasant, neutral, and unpleasant odors under four conditions (detection, intensity, pleasantness, and familiarity tasks). The participants were to perform these tasks as quickly as possible, while response times were recorded. The results showed that (i) unpleasant odors were assessed more rapidly than neutral or pleasant odors, and that this was specifically true (ii) during right nostril stimulation, and (iii) during pleasantness assessment, suggesting possible differential cerebral hemisphere involvement, with a right-side advantage for processing of unpleasant affect in olfaction. A handedness effect on familiarity judgment is also discussed.     

The influence of negligence, intention, and outcome on children’s moral judgments

Piaget (1932) and subsequent researchers have reported that young children’s moral judgments are based more on the outcomes of actions than on the agents’ intentions. The current study investigated whether negligence might also influence these judgments and explain children’s apparent focus on outcome. Children (3–8 years of age) and adults (N = 139) rated accidental actions in which the valences of intention, negligence, and outcome were varied systematically. Participants of all ages were influenced primarily by intention, and well-intentioned actions were also evaluated according to negligence and outcome. Only two young children based their judgments solely on outcome. It is suggested that previous studies have underestimated children’s use of intention because outcome and negligence have been confounded. Negative consequences are considered to be important because children assume that they are caused by negligence. The findings indicate that young children can show sophisticated understanding of the roles of intention and negligence in moral judgments.     

Social cognitive career theory, conscientiousness, and work performance: A meta-analytic path analysis

We performed a meta-analytic path analysis of an abbreviated version of social cognitive career theory's (SCCT) model of work performance (Lent, Brown, & Hackett, 1994). The model we tested included the central cognitive predictors of performance (ability, self-efficacy, performance goals), with the exception of outcome expectations. Results suggested that a slightly modified version of the model, incorporating a path between ability and goals, provided adequate fit to the data. In addition, we examined alternative pathways through which conscientiousness, a Big 5 personality variable, might operate in concert with the social cognitive variables in predicting work performance. Good fit was found for a model in which conscientiousness is linked to performance both directly and indirectly via self-efficacy and goals. The implications of these results for SCCT, future research, and practical efforts to facilitate work performance are discussed.     

A multilevel analysis of the self-presentation theory of social anxiety: Contextualized, dispositional, and interactive perspectives

According to self-presentation theory, social anxiety is determined by impression motivation and impression efficacy. However, researchers have not evaluated the theory’s applicability from contextual and dispositional perspectives in an integrated manner, nor have they examined a fundamental interactive facet of the theory. In three studies, we examined these issues using hypothetical situations and experience sampling methodology. Results demonstrated the theory’s applicability at the contextual and dispositional level, providing insight into people’s general tendencies to experience social anxiety and their momentary experiences of social anxiety. Results also revealed the predicted interaction between impression motivation and impression efficacy - high impression efficacy weakens the association between impression motivation and social anxiety. These studies expand understanding of the personological and situational factors that drive social anxiety.     

Testing the domain-specificity of a theory of mind deficit in brain-injured patients: evidence for consistent performance on non-verbal, "reality-unknown" false belief and false photograph tasks

To test the domain-specificity of "theory of mind" abilities we compared the performance of a case-series of 11 brain-lesioned patients on a recently developed test of false belief reasoning () and on a matched false photograph task, which did not require belief reasoning and which addressed problems with existing false photograph methods. A strikingly similar pattern of performance was shown across the false belief and false photograph tests. Patients who were selectively impaired on false belief tasks were also impaired on false photograph tasks; patients spared on false belief tasks also showed preserved performance with false photographs. In some cases the impairment on false belief and false photograph tasks coincided with good performance on control tasks matched for executive demands. We discuss whether the patients have a domain-specific deficit in reasoning about representations common to both false belief and false photograph tasks.     

Projecting group liking and ethnocentrism on in-group members: False consensus effect of attitude strength

The purpose of the present study was to examine the social projection effect concerning the strength of national attitudes. Japanese respondents sampled from the general population judged how patriotic and nationalistic opinions were distributed among Japanese (i.e. in-group) and American (out-group) citizens. The respondents' own positions regarding these attitude dimensions were also measured. As predicted, the respondents inflated estimates of the endorsement for positions close to their own, particularly when the target was the in-group. Estimates of opinion distributions in the out-group converged around stereotypic positions. The apparent projection effect in patriotism (i.e. in-group liking) was likely mediated by abstract trait evaluations of the home country, while the projection of nationalism (i.e. ethnocentrism) appeared to be a direct result of projection without such mediation. Different processes such as the motivation for cognitive consistency and the need to achieve social identity of the group were suggested to underlie projection effects in different domains. Implications of the results for the study of stereotyping and intergroup conflict are discussed.     

Transforming Social Regularities in a Multicomponent Community‐Based Intervention: A Case Study of Professionals’ Adaptability to Better Support Parents to Meet Their Children's Needs

This paper presents an in‐depth case study of the dynamic processes of mutual adjustment that occurred between two professional teams participating in a multicomponent community‐based intervention (CBI). Drawing on the concept of social regularities, we focus on patterns of social interaction within and across the two microsystems involved in delivering the intervention. Two research strategies, narrative analysis and structural network analysis, were used to reveal the social regularities linking the two microsystems. Results document strategies and actions undertaken by the professionals responsible for the intervention to modify intersetting social regularities to deal with a problem situation that arose during the course of one intervention cycle. The results illustrate how key social regularities were modified in order to resolve the problem situation and allow the intervention to continue to function smoothly. We propose that these changes represent a transition to a new state of the ecological intervention system. This transformation appeared to be the result of certain key intervening mechanisms: changing key role relationships, boundary spanning, and synergy. The transformation also appeared to be linked to positive setting‐level and individual‐level outcomes: confidence of key team members, joint planning, decision‐making and intervention activities, and the achievement of desired intervention objectives.     

Connecting theory to fat talk: Body dissatisfaction mediates the relationships between weight discrepancy,upward comparison,body surveillance,and fat talk

The fat talk literature is meager in terms of offering theoretical explanations for women's self-disparaging communication. The research presented here sought to establish a relationship between three prominent body image theories – self-discrepancy theory, social comparison theory, and objectification theory – and fat talk by proposing body dissatisfaction as a potential mediating mechanism. Young adult women (N = 201) completed an online questionnaire. As predicted, results revealed that body dissatisfaction significantly mediated the relationships between weight discrepancy, upward comparison, body surveillance and fat talk. Effect size estimates indicated that the size of each indirect effect was medium in magnitude.