Subjunctive Conditional Probability

There seem to be two ways of supposing a proposition: supposing “indicatively” that Shakespeare didn’t write Hamlet, it is likely that someone else did; supposing “subjunctively” that Shakespeare hadn’t written Hamlet, it is likely that nobody would have written the play. Let P(B//A) be the probability of B on the subjunctive supposition that A. Is P(B//A) equal to the probability of the corresponding counterfactual, A □→B? I review recent triviality arguments against this hypothesis and argue that they do not succeed. On the other hand, I argue that even if we can equate P(B//A) with P(A □→B), we still need an account of how subjunctive conditional probabilities are related to unconditional probabilities. The triviality arguments reveal that the connection is not as straightforward as one might have hoped.     

Betting on transitivity in probabilistic causal chains

Causal reasoning is crucial to people’s decision making in probabilistic environments. It may rely directly on data about covariation between variables (correspondence) or on inferences based on reasonable constraints if larger causal models are constructed based on local relations (coherence). For causal chains an often assumed constraint is transitivity. For probabilistic causal relations, mismatches between such transitive inferences and direct empirical evidence may lead to distortions of empirical evidence. Previous work has shown that people may use the generative local causal relations A → B and B → C to infer a positive indirect relation between events A and C, despite data showing that these events are actually independent (von Sydow et al. in Proceedings of the thirty-first annual conference of the cognitive science society. Cognitive Science Society, Austin, 2009, Proceedings of the 32nd annual conference of the cognitive science society. Cognitive Science Society, Austin, 2010, Mem Cogn 44(3):469–487, 2016). Here we used a sequential learning scenario to investigate how transitive reasoning in intransitive situations with negatively related distal events may relate to betting behavior. In three experiments participants bet as if they were influenced by a transitivity assumption, even when the data strongly contradicted transitivity.     

Open knowledge and changing the subject

Knowledge is closed under (known) implication, according to standard theories. Orthodoxy can allow, though, that apparent counterexamples to closure exist, much as Kripkeans recognize the existence of illusions of possibility (IPOs) which they seek to explain away. Should not everyone, orthodox or not, want to make sense of “intimations of openness” (IONs)? This paper compares two styles of explanation: (1) evidence that boosts P’s probability need not boost that of its consequence Q; (2) evidence bearing on P’s subject matter may not bear on the subject matter of Q.     

The metaphysics of goodness in the ethics of Aristotle

Kraut (Against absolute goodness. Oxford University Press, Oxford, 2011) and other neo-Aristotelians have argued that there is no such thing as absolute goodness. They admit only good in a kind, e.g. a good sculptor, and good for something, e.g. good for fish. What is the view of Aristotle? Mostly limiting myself to the Nicomachean Ethics (NE), I argue that Aristotle is committed to things being absolutely good and also to a metaphysics of absolute goodness where there is a maximally best good that is the cause of the goodness of all other things in virtue of being their end. I begin (in Sect. 2) by suggesting that the notion of good as an end, which is present in the first lines of the NE, is not obviously accounted for by good in a kind or good for something. I then give evidence that good in a kind (in Sect. 3) and good for something (in Sect. 4) can explain neither certain distinctions drawn between virtues nor the determinacy ascribed to what is good “in itself.” I argue (in Sect. 5) contra Gotthelf (2012) that because several important arguments in the Nicomachean Ethics rely on comparative judgments of absolute value—e.g. “Man is the best of all animals”—Aristotle is committed to the existence of both absolute goodness and an absolutely best being. I focus (in Sect. 6) on one passage, Aristotle’s division of goods in NE I 12, which presupposes this metaphysical picture.     

Quieting the Ego Through Group Activities: A Thematic Analysis of Romanian and Japanese Students’ Positive Group Experiences

Research suggests that quieting the ego (reducing excessive self-focus) can foster well-being. Two exploratory qualitative studies were carried out to investigate the features of ego-quieting group activities. Romanian (N = 140) and Japanese participants (N = 99) read a definition of “self-detachment” and answered several open-ended questions asking them to describe a group situation in which they had experienced a similar state. Thematic analysis showed numerous similarities between the responses of the two samples, as well as cultural-specific features. Participants recalled moments of enjoyment in the company of friends, or challenging group work. For the Romanian sample, the experience was characterized by present-oriented attention, valuing others, positivity, disinhibition and altered perceptions, while for the Japanese sample, valuing others, stress relief, matching challenge and skill and merging self with exterior world were its prevalent features. Both samples identified similar eliciting factors (individual receptiveness, acceptant group, captivating activity, appropriate environment) and similar consequences of the experience (increased closeness, relaxation and self-development). While supporting the existing literature on the importance of communal activities in reducing self-focus and promoting individual well-being, the paper provides new in-depth insights into participants’ subjective experiences and the cultural specifics of positive group activities.     

Is Explanatoriness a Guide to Confirmation? A Reply to Climenhaga

We (2013, 2014) argued that explanatoriness is evidentially irrelevant in the following sense: Let H be a hypothesis, O an observation, and E the proposition that H would explain O if H and O were true. Then our claim is that Pr(H | O & E) = Pr(H | O). We defended this screening-off thesis (SOT) by discussing an example concerning smoking and cancer. Climenhaga (Philos Sci, forthcoming) argues that SOT is mistaken because it delivers the wrong verdict about a slightly different smoking-and-cancer case. He also considers a variant of SOT, called “SOT*”, and contends that it too gives the wrong result. We here reply to Climenhaga’s arguments and suggest that SOT provides a criticism of the widely held theory of inference called “inference to the best explanation”.     

A Replication of the Reker and Cousins’ Study About the Complementarity Between the Purpose-In-Life Test (PIL) and the Seeking of Noetic Goals (SONG) Among Spanish Young People

The main aim of this study was to replicate the Reker and Cousins’ (1979) work about the complementarity between the the Purpose-In-Life Test (PIL), which indicates the degree to which the person has found meaning and purpose in life (presence of meaning), and the Seeking of Noetic Goals (SONG), which measures the degree to which the person is motivated to find meaning and purpose in life (search for meaning). Participants were 349 Spanish undergraduates (224 women, 64.20 %, and 125 men, 35.80 %) between 18 and 26 years old, M = 20.81, SD = 2.17. Principal Component Analysis showed eight factors: four mainly related to the presence of meaning and four mainly related to the search for meaning. The PIL contributed four factors to presence of meaning, whereas the SONG contributed four factors to the search for meaning. The results confirmed the factorial structure, internal consistency, and validity of both scales and their complementarity.     

The Effect of Religious Belief and Forgiveness on Coping with Diabetes

We aimed to investigate the relationship of religious beliefs and forgiveness in diabetic patients with various sociodemographic characteristics, emotional problems and glycaemic control. The study comprises 100 patients diagnosed with type 2 DM. We used a data collection form, the Scale of Forgiveness and Religiosity (SFR), Problem Areas in Diabetes Scale (PAID), Beck Depression Inventory (BDI), State-Trait Anxiety Inventory (STAI) and the Audit of Diabetes-Dependent Quality of Life (ADDQoL). We also recorded blood glucose and HbA1c test results. A statistically significant relationship was determined only between the scores of the STAI-I and the religious belief scales (r = 0.198, p = 0.049). A statistically significant negative relationship was determined between the forgiveness scale points and the BDI (r = 0.326, p = 0.001), the STAI-II (r = 0.308, p = 0.002) and PAID (r = 0.313, p = 0.001) and a positive correlation with ADDQoL (r = 0.284, p = 0.004). To conclude, forgiveness by patient himself or others reduced the emotional problems which were experienced related to diabetes by reducing stress levels and could increase quality of life.     

Priming students for whole-class interaction: using interdependence to support behavioral engagement

Student interaction at a whole-class level is tied to learning outcomes, but encouraging students to engage with their peers at a whole-class level is difficult. While little research has sought to promote student engagement with one another at this level, one factor that has been shown to increase student interaction in pairs and small groups is student–student interdependency. Yet, to date, no studies have attempted to examine the impact of prior interdependency at this smaller scale on students’ interactions as a whole-class. The current study tested this relationship in an undergraduate class learning science content (n?=?19) through structuring interdependency (task and resource) during science learning. Students completed six science learning sessions each of which included a science learning activity followed by a whole-class concept mapping task. Students were audio and video recorded during the whole-class task, and then individual student behavior was coded in 10 s intervals during the first 10 min of each session. Generalized regression results showed that adding small group interdependency during learning predicted significantly more student science discussion (R²?=?.05) and supportive interactions (R²?=?.16), while predicting decreased expressions of science misunderstanding (R²?=?.07) during the whole-class task. Additionally, the combination of task and resource interdependency predicted a further decrease in student expressions of misunderstanding (R²?=?.07), but also increased student social distraction in comparison to task interdependency alone (R²?=?.28). Together these findings suggest that prior interdependency can be leveraged to increase student behavioral engagement at the whole-class level.     

Resilience to Interpersonal Trauma and Decreased Risk for Psychopathology in an Epidemiologic Sample

Quantitative measures of psychological resilience related to discrete stressors, such as interpersonal (IP) trauma, are lacking. The current study examined whether a novel, quantitative measure of resilience was related to decreased risk for a broad range of lifetime DSM-IV axis I disorders in an epidemiologic sample. Resilience was defined as the residual resulting from the difference between the individual’s predicted and observed PTSD symptom count, based on their cumulative exposure to IP traumatic events. Participants were 6288 adults (59.5% women; M _age  = 46.9, SD = 14.5) from the National Epidemiologic Study on Alcohol and Related Conditions endorsing at least one lifetime IP traumatic event. Logistic regressions were conducted to examine the relationship between resilience and axis I diagnoses, covarying for age, sex, education level, social support, and recent stressful life events. Greater resilience scores were associated with decreased likelihood of major depression (OR = .64, p < .001), generalized anxiety disorder (OR = .65, p < .001), social anxiety disorder (OR = .74, p < .001), panic disorder (OR = .65, p <. 001), and alcohol dependence (OR = .85, p < .001). Discrepancy between expected and observed PTSD symptom severity based on IP trauma load may represent a useful, quantitative measure of resilience.     

Determination of the number of independent parameters of a score matrix from the examination of rank orders

Two ordinal consequences are drawn from the linear multiple-factor analysis model. First, the numberR(s, d) of distinct ways in whichs subjects can be ranked by linear functions ofd factors is limited by the recursive expressionR(s, d)=R(s?1,d)+(s?1)R(s?1,d?1). Second, every setS ofd+2 subjects can be separated into two subsetsS* andS ? S* such that no linear function ofd variables can rank allS* over allS ? S*, and vice versa. When these results are applied to the hypothetical data of Thurstone's “box problem,” three independent parameters are found. Relations to Thurstone's suggestion for a non-correlational factor analysis are discussed.     

Measuring Positive Affect,Negative Affect,and Physiological Hyperarousal among Italian Youth: Translations of the PANAS-C and PH-C

Italian-language versions of the Positive and Negative Affect Scale for Children (PANAS-C; Laurent et al. Psychological Assessment, 11, 326–338, 1999) and Physiological Hyperarousal Scale for Children (PH-C; Laurent et al. Psychological Assessment, 16, 373–380, 2004) were developed. Students (N = 1026; M age = 12.05 years, SD = 1.49) from central Italy completed these scales. Measures were evaluated based on criteria from previous studies resulting in an 11-item PANAS-C PA scale (α = .88), a 13-item PANAS-C NA scale (α = .87), and a 14-item PH-C (α = .85). Confirmatory factor analyses resulted in best-fit indices that favored a 3-factor model consistent with the tripartite model of anxiety and depression. Similar to results reported with the original English-language and other translations of these measures, scores on the PA scale were lower and scores on the NA and PH scales were higher for older girls than older boys and younger boys and girls. Findings suggested that the psychometric properties of the Italian-language versions of the PANAS-C and PH-C were similar to the English-language versions and other translated versions of the measures.     

Does Group CBT for Depression Do What It Says on the Tin? A Systemic Review and Meta-analysis of Group CBT for Depressed Adults (2000–2016)

The present study aimed to update previous meta-analyses of gCBT, and focus specifically on recent studies in which the Beck Depression Inventory (BDI) was used to assess outcome. PsycINFO, PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane were searched for eligible studies. Both randomized controlled trials (RTC, k = 9) and non-RTCs (k = 1) published since 2000 were included. On the BDI large significant effect sizes were found for gCBT compared with treatment as usual (TAU, d = 4.64), wailing list controls (WLC, d = 1.20), and both of these comparison conditions combined with studies of well-defined alternative treatments (ALT, d = 1.61). On the BDI a moderate effect size (d = 0.53) was found for comparisons of gCBT and ALT groups. gCBT also had large and significant effects on depressive cognition assessed with the Automatic Thoughts Questionnaire and the Dysfunctional Attitudes Scale compared with WLC and ALT comparison groups (d = 2.66). This meta-analysis shows that gCBT is a robust intervention for depression in adults.     

Recollections of childhood bullying and multiple forms of victimization: correlates with psychological functioning among college students

This retrospective investigation examined the association among childhood bullying victimization, multiple forms of victimization, and psychological functioning in a college sample. Four hundred-and-eighty-two undergraduate students participated in the study (M = 19.98 years, SD = 1.82). The sample included 65 % women. For race/ethnicity, 66.4 % were European-American (N = 320), 16.8 % African-American (N = 81). For grade level, 21.6 % were freshmen (N = 104), followed by 38.2 % sophomores (N = 184), 16.2 % juniors (N = 78), and 23.4 % seniors (N = 113). Participants completed a survey packet of measures assessing childhood bullying victimization experiences and current levels of psychological functioning. Findings indicated that bullying victimization significantly predicted greater levels of depression, anxiety, and post-traumatic stress (PTS) after controlling for other childhood victimization experiences. PTS symptoms were predicted by exposure to community violence and child abuse with bullying victimization was found to be the strongest predictor. College-level practitioners need to assess for a wide range of childhood victimization experiences, including bullying victimization.     

Default “Gunel and Dickey” Bayes factors for contingency tables

The analysis of R×C contingency tables usually features a test for independence between row and column counts. Throughout the social sciences, the adequacy of the independence hypothesis is generally evaluated by the outcome of a classical p-value null-hypothesis significance test. Unfortunately, however, the classical p-value comes with a number of well-documented drawbacks. Here we outline an alternative, Bayes factor method to quantify the evidence for and against the hypothesis of independence in R×C contingency tables. First we describe different sampling models for contingency tables and provide the corresponding default Bayes factors as originally developed by Gunel and Dickey (Biometrika, 61(3):545–557 (1974)). We then illustrate the properties and advantages of a Bayes factor analysis of contingency tables through simulations and practical examples. Computer code is available online and has been incorporated in the “BayesFactor” R package and the JASP program (jasp-stats.org).     

Distress Tolerance and Social Support in Adolescence: Predicting Risk for Internalizing and Externalizing Symptoms Following a Natural Disaster

The purpose of the multi-measure, multi-wave, longitudinal study was to examine the interactive relation between behavioral distress tolerance (DT) and perceived social support (PSS) in 352 tornado-exposed adolescents aged 12–17 years (M = 14.44; SD = 1.74). At baseline, adolescents completed a computer-based task for DT, and self-report measures of PSS, depressed mood, posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD), substance use, and interpersonal conflict. Symptoms also were assessed 4 and 12 months after baseline. Findings showed that lower levels of DT together with lower levels of PSS conferred risk for elevated symptoms of prospective depression (t(262) = ?2.04, p = .04; r_{effect size} = 0.13) and PTSD (t(195) = ?2.08, p = .04; r_{effect size} = 0.15) following a tornado. However, only PSS was significant in substance use t(139) = 2.20, p = .03; r_{effect size=}0.18) and conflict (t(138) = ?4.05, p < .0001; r_{effect size=}0.33) in our sample. Implications regarding adolescent DT, the transdiagnostic nature of PSS, and the clinical applications of our findings in the aftermath of a natural disaster are discussed.     

Executive Functioning Correlates of <Emphasis Type="Italic">DSM-5</Emphasis> Maladaptive Personality Traits: Initial Evidence from an Italian Sample of Consecutively Admitted Adult Outpatients

In order to evaluate the associations between computer-administered tasks of executive functioning (EF), and maladaptive personality domains and traits listed in DSM-5 Alternative Model of Personality Disorders, 53 consecutively admitted psychotherapy outpatients (female participants: n?=?27, 50.9%; male participants: n?=?26, 49.1%; participants’ mean age?=?37.28 years, SD?=?11.50 years) were administered the Psychology Experiment Building Language (PEBL) EF tasks and the Personality Inventory for DSM-5 (PID-5). According to rank-order correlation analyses, a number of non-negligible and specific associations were observed between selected PID-5 scales and indices of participants’ performance on EF tasks. MM robust regression models showed that participants’ performance on computer-administered EF tasks explained a non-negligible amount of variance in selected PID-5 scale scores (median R² value?=?.17). As a whole, our trait-level analyses of PID-5 dimensions suggest the clinical usefulness of integrating self-reports and EF laboratory tasks in routine clinical assessment.     

Emotional Competence and Anxiety in Childhood and Adolescence: A Meta-Analytic Review

Anxiety is conceptualized as a state of negative emotional arousal that is accompanied by concern about future threat. The purpose of this meta-analytic review was to evaluate the evidence of associations between emotional competence and anxiety by examining how specific emotional competence domains (emotion recognition, emotion expression, emotion awareness, emotion understanding, acceptance of emotion, emotional self-efficacy, sympathetic/empathic responses to others’ emotions, recognition of how emotion communication and self-presentation affect relationships, and emotion regulatory processes) relate to anxiety in childhood and adolescence. A total of 185 studies were included in a series of meta-analyses (N’s ranged from 573 to 25,711). Results showed that anxious youth are less effective at expressing (r = ?0.15) and understanding emotions (r = ?0.20), less aware of (r = ?0.28) and less accepting of their own emotions (r = ?0.49), and report less emotional self-efficacy (r = ?0.36). More anxious children use more support-seeking coping strategies (r = 0.07) and are more likely to use less adaptive coping strategies including avoidant coping (r = 0.18), externalizing (r = 0.18), and maladaptive cognitive coping (r = 0.34). Emotion acceptance and awareness, emotional self-efficacy, and maladaptive cognitive coping yielded the largest effect sizes. Some effects varied with children’s age. The findings inform intervention and treatment programs of anxiety in youth and identify several areas for future research.     

The Subjective Assessment of Accomplishment and Positive Relationships: Initial Validation and Correlative and Experimental Evidence for Their Association with Well-Being

In his Authentic Happiness Theory, Seligman describes three orientations that lead to happiness: The life of pleasure, the life of engagement, and the life of meaning (in Authentic happiness, Free Press, New York, 2002). The Orientations to Happiness Questionnaire (OTH; Peterson et al. in J Happiness Stud 6:25–41, 2005) has been developed as a subjective measure for these three orientations. In 2011, Seligman revised his theory and added two new components; i.e., positive relationships and accomplishment. These five are the basic tenets of his well-being theory. The present set of studies describes the construction and initial validation of two short scales for the subjective assessment of the endorsement of positive relationships and accomplishment. Their relation with the OTH-scales is also tested. Study 1 describes the scale construction and provides evidence for the factorial, convergent and divergent validity in three samples (n = 233, n = 336, and n = 125). Study 2 showed that the new scales have high test–retest reliabilities over a period of 1, 3, and 6 months (r = .68–.78), respectively. Study 3 examines the malleability of positive relationships and accomplishment in an intervention study that shows that the scores of both new scales increase in the intervention condition. Overall, the three studies show that the new scales have satisfactory psychometric properties—also when used together with the OTH-scales—and possible applications are discussed.