多特征决策策略的信息搜索模式分析

决策策略的使用是不可见的内在过程 ,有效识别出决策者在信息整合时使用的策略对研究策略学习与转换、决策辅助与训练有重要意义。本文介绍了用过程追踪技术获取的信息搜索模式识别多特征决策策略的方法 ,即单步与多步跳转分析 ,并比较了两种方法的应用效果 ,讨论了跳转分析法的优点和局限。     

Multiattribute Decision Making in Context: A Dynamic Neural Network Methodology

A theoretical structure for multiattribute decision making is presented, based on a dynamical system for interactions in a neural network incorporating affective and rational variables. This enables modeling of problems that elude two prevailing economic decision theories: subjective expected utility theory and prospect theory. The network is unlike some that fit economic data by choosing optimal weights or coefficients within a predetermined mathematical framework. Rather, the framework itself is based on principles used elsewhere to model many other cognitive and behavioral data, in a manner approximating how humans perform behavioral functions. Different, interconnected modules within the network encode (a) attributes of objects among which choices are made, (b) object categories, (c) and goals of the decision maker. An example is utilized to simulate the actual consumer choice between old and new versions of Coca-Cola. Potential applications are also discussed to market decisions involving negotiations between participants, such as international petroleum traders.     

The Selection of Multiattribute Decision Making Methods for Scholarship Student Selection

Selecting scholarship students from a number of competing candidates is a complex decision making process, in which multiple selection criteria have to be considered simultaneously. Multiattribute decision making (MADM) has proven to be an effective approach for ranking or selecting one or more alternatives from a finite number of alternatives with respect to multiple, usually conflicting criteria. This paper formulates the scholarship student selection process as an MADM problem, and presents suitable compensatory methods for solving the problem. A new empirical validity procedure is developed to deal with the inconsistent ranking problem caused by different MADM methods. The procedure aims at selecting a ranking outcome which has a minimum expected value loss, when true attribute weights are not known. An empirical study of a scholarship student selection problem in an Australian university is conducted to illustrate how the selection procedure works.     

The Effectiveness of Partial Information about Attribute Weights for Ranking Alternatives in Multiattribute Decision Making

Weighted additive evaluation functions are widely used to rank alternatives in decision making under certainty with multiple evaluation attributes. Some researchers have suggested that approximate attribute weights may be adequate to accurately rank alternatives. Use of approximate weights would simplify decision analysis since detailed elicitation of weights can be time consuming and controversial. This article investigates the degree to which partial information about the relative magnitudes of attribute weights is sufficient to rank alternatives as a function of the number of decision alternatives, the number of attributes, and the number of allowed levels for each attribute. A simulation analysis, as well as a reanalysis of an actual application, shows that partial information about weights is often not sufficient to determine the most preferred alternative for realistic decision problems. Hence, approximation procedures for specifying weights may lead to errors. However, our work also shows that a simple analysis procedure can be used to accurately determine whether partial information about weights is adequate to correctly specify the most preferred alternative. This procedure can be useful for identifying situations in which detailed elicitation of weights is not needed.     

Upper and Lower Bound Evaluation of Multiattribute Objects: Comparison Models Using Linear Programming

We argue that three points of comparison which people use in everyday thinking are: comparison of an object relative to the next best object; relative to the average object; or relative to the worst object. We present formal models of comparison, based on linear programming, for multiattribute objects. We present upper and lower bound evaluations for each type of comparison: that is, relative to each of the three natural points of comparison we may determine an object′s most favorable standing, and its least favorable. The six models are illustrated with an example. Potential applications in marketing, decision analysis, social cognition, and negotiation are briefly sketched.     

Conflict and Loss Aversion in Multiattribute Choice: The Effects of Trade-Off Size and Reference Dependence on Decision Difficulty

Two experiments assess the type and amount of conflict influencing decision difficulty in hypothetical scenarios where subjects chose between two alternatives made to appear relatively attractive (approach–approach conflicts) or relatively unattractive (avoidance-avoidance conflicts), each involving attribute trade-offs across alternatives (embedded approach–avoidance conflicts). In Experiment 1, independent of information processing demands, decisions are more difficult when alternatives are unattractive and/or attribute trade-offs are large. Reference states that change the relative attractiveness of the alternatives increase or decrease decision difficulty in a manner consistent with loss aversion: Superior reference states increase decision difficulty more than inferior reference states reduce it. Experiment 2 further tests the reference dependence of decision difficulty by varying the nature of the reference state (stated comparators, as in Experiment 1, or endowments) as well as its extremity. Endowed reference states affect decision difficulty more than reference states that are stated comparators. Moreover, consistent with loss aversion, inferior reference states that are twice as extreme as superior reference states reduce decision difficulty about as much as the superior reference states increase it. The results demonstrate that decisions can be made easier or harder by way of reference dependence, and that the loss aversion so prevalent in preference formation generalizes to perceptions of decision difficulty in multiattribute settings.     

Cerebral Asymmetry and Decision Strategies in Mental Rotation: A Psychophysical Analysis

The accuracy with which observers judged the parity of pairs of rotated images in the two visual fields was determined from receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis of confidence ratings. In one experiment, observers judged whether pairs of letters were of the same parity (that is, both normal or both backwards) or of different parities (one normal and one backwards). A small right visual field advantage in the observers' accuracy was found in this mental rotation task. In a second experiment, observers judged whether pairs of pictures were of the same parity or of different parities. Unlike the first experiment, no evidence of a consistent visual field advantage was found in this mental rotation task. The decision strategy adopted by the observers in making same-different judgements about rotated stimuli was examined. The symmetrical shape of the ROCs obtained was consistent with the adoption of the likelihood-ratio decision strategy, a result which supplemented previous evidence that this decision strategy is adopted when same-different judgements are made about multidimensional stimuli.     

Normative and Descriptive Analyses of Simpson's Paradox in Decision Making

Suppose that you are evaluating two delivery companies. Your investigation shows that Company B has a better on-time rate for small packages and also for large packages. Despite Company B's performance, however, Company A has a better overall on-time rate. This situation exemplifies Simpson's Paradox, in which the judged relationship between two variables (e.g., company and performance) differs depending on whether that relationship is viewed within subcategories of a third variable (e.g., package size) or in the aggregate. A normative analysis is presented arguing that the reasonableness of using the third variable depends upon the sample size as well as the separation between and variability within categories. To test subjects' abilities to behave appropriately in Simpson's Paradox situations, we examined responses to variations in these factors in five studies. Results showed that subjects had little or no sensitivity to differing stimulus set sizes. Also, subjects were sensitive to relationship strength and the variability within and between groups, and in nonnormative ways. Subjects' judgment behavior is related to a broader perspective concerning selection among multiple available levels of analysis based on a consideration of argument strength.     

消费心理对用户购买决策的影响及营销对策

在现阶段消费心理对消费行为有着重要的影响。在以消费者为中心的市场营销活动中,企业要在激烈的市场竞争中占有更多的市场份额,兢只有在掌握和了解消费者心理的基础上,有针对性地制定适应消费者心理需求的营销策略,才能在竞争中占据有利地位,获取更多的市场机会与商业利润。     

Selection of Decision Strategies After Conscious and Unconscious Thought

It is commonly assumed that the use of simple, non‐compensatory strategies is especially pronounced in memory‐based decisions, where information costs are high. At the same time, there is evidence that in memory‐based decisions, a compensatory processing of attributes is facilitated when the processing occurs unconsciously rather than consciously. We applied a strategy classification approach—developed in research on non‐compensatory heuristics—to test two key tenets of unconscious thought theory: the capacity principle and the weighting principle. Participants memorized attribute information about cars and were subsequently either directed to or diverted from thinking consciously about their preferences between the cars (conscious versus unconscious thought). Then, participants indicated in pair‐wise choices which car they would prefer and were classified (based on their choices) as using either one of two compensatory strategies (equal weight or weighted additive) or a non‐compensatory strategy (lexicographic heuristic). In line with the capacity principle, the number of participants best described by a compensatory strategy (the equal‐weight strategy) tended to be higher after unconscious thought than after conscious thought, whereas the number of participants best described by the lexicographic heuristic tended to be lower. Inconsistent with the weighting principle, participants in the unconscious thought condition were better described by the equal‐weight strategy than by the weighted‐additive strategy. In Experiment 2, in which participants were not instructed to form an impression while learning the attribute information, the use of the equal‐weight strategy was not more prevalent after unconscious thought. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Habituality and Undecidability: A Comparison of Merleau-Ponty and Derrida on the Decision

This essay examines the relationship that obtains between Merleau-Ponty and Derrida through exploring an interesting point of dissension in their respective accounts of decision-making. Merleau-Ponty's early philosophy emphasizes the body-subject's tendency to seek an equilibrium with the world (by acquiring skills and establishing what he refers to as 'intentional arcs'), and towards deciding in an embodied and habitual manner that minimizes any confrontation with what might be termed a decision-making aporia. On the other hand, in his later writings, Derrida frequently points towards a constitutive 'undecidability' involved in decision-making. He insists that a decision, if it is genuinely to be a decision, must involve a leap beyond all prior preparations, and this ensures that an aporia surrounds any attempt to decide. One must always decide without any equilibrium or stability, and yet these are precisely the things that Merleau-Ponty claims that our body moves us towards. Most of this essay will explore the significance of this disparity, and it will be argued that many of Merleau-Ponty's insights challenge the Derridean conception of the undecidability involved in decision-making. This becomes most obvious when comparing the decision-making processes of those expert in a particular field to those who are merely competent (for example chess), and this essay will attempt to establish that the aporia that Derrida discerns can actually be seen to constrict.     

Anticipations of Effort and Accuracy in Multiattribute Choice

Research on multiattribute choice strategies suggests that decision makers adapt to variations in task features by switching decision strategies. One perspective is that strategy selection is determined by a trade-off between the goals of minimizing effort and maximizing accuracy. However, since strategy selection is based on anticipated effort and accuracy, empirical evidence is needed on the nature of these anticipations. An experiment examines how well decision makers anticipate the influence of two particular task features, information display organization and number of alternatives, on effort and accuracy. Subjects chose the best alternative from sets of loan applications described by six relevant attributes. Prior to each choice, they prospectively judged the effort required and the accuracy that would result. Results suggest that anticipated consequences deviate substantially from experienced consequences for both effort and accuracy. Neither task experience nor explicit feedback brought anticipations and experiences closer together. These findings underscore the importance of anticipation judgments in multiattribute choice.     

The Fate of the Moros: A Cross-cultural Exploration of Strategies in Complex and Dynamic Decision Making

The ways in which people deal with complex and dynamic problems are shaped by their learning experiences within their culture as well as the functional constraints within which they have to operate. An experiment is described that explores the interaction of culture and ways of problem solving. University students from India and Germany had to work on one of two different versions of a computer-simulated interactive complex problem. The anaylsis focuses on the strategic aspects of problem solving. Indian and German problem solvers clearly differed in their approach: German students used a more active and control-oriented strategy and committed fewer strategic and tactical errors. The results form the basis of a discussion on the factors important in the development of problem-solving expertise.     

A Note on the Power of Multiattribute One‐switch Utility Functions

One‐switch utility functions model situations in which the preference between two alternatives switches only once as the outcome of one attribute of both alternatives changes from low to high. Recent research cites evidence that the sum of exponential functions (sumex) is the most convincing type for modelling one‐switch utility functions. Sumex functions allow to model exactly one preferential switch and they are convenient for estimating one‐switch utility functions. However, it is unclear so far if sumex functions are suitable to model preferential switches that are perceivable by a decision maker. This paper first analyses how different the utility of two alternatives before and after a preferential can be modelled with sumex functions given that the preferential switch is caused by a particular attribute outcome improvement. It thereafter investigates how accurately decision makers perceive such utility differences. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

决策策略与个性特征关系的模拟实验

本研究以实验室模拟实验和现场模拟实验为手段,以大学本科生和工厂管理人员为被试,分两部分进行。第一部分,以企业新产品开发为决策内容,考察这类决策情景的不确定性和决策策略的关系。结果发现,决策策略随不确定状态而改变;决策情景的不确定程度和决策策略没有严格的一一对应关系;在四类不确定决策情景下,都有被试采用混合型策略,从而验证了先前研究的结果。第二部分,我们考察了决策策略与个性特征的关系。结果发现,偏离决策策略的规定性理论所预测的被试同没有偏离的被试在CPI量表的三种个性特征上,即成熟度、成就动机与管理潜能,有显著性差异;对实验室实验被试和现场实验被试而言,均发现管理潜能这一个性特征一致性的显著影响。文章最后提出了有待进一步探索的课题。     

Gender Differences in Wayfinding Strategies and Anxiety About Wayfinding: A Cross-Cultural Comparison

Two studies examined gender and cultural differences in wayfinding strategies and anxiety about wayfinding. Men in both Hungary and the United States reported greater preference for a strategy of orienting to global reference points, whereas women reported greater preference for a strategy based on route information. A higher level of wayfinding anxiety was reported by Americans, and women in both countries reported greater wayfinding anxiety than did men. Women in the United States, but not in Hungary, reported less childhood wayfinding experience than did men; women in both countries reported feeling less safe than did men. Feeling of personal safety and wayfinding strategy preferences mediated the gender difference in wayfinding anxiety.     

Decision Strategies and the Confidence–Accuracy Relationship in Face Recognition

The decision strategy used to select a choice set from an array of alternative options is known to affect the composition of the final choice set. Specifically, individuals incorporate more answers into their choice set when it is created by eliminating implausible items than when the set is created through the inclusion of plausible options. This difference is accounted for in a decision framework that posits a general reluctance to change the status quo (i.e., actively include or exclude an item). We extended this work to investigate, not only the decisions themselves, but also metacognitive judgments (i.e., confidence in the accuracy of the choice set). In two face recognition experiments, we tested the impact of decision strategy (Experiment 1) and confidence judgment strategy (Experiment 2) on the confidence–accuracy relationship. In Experiment 1, participants completed two blocks of recognition trials, one under inclusion (marking previously seen faces) and one under elimination (marking previously unseen faces) instructions. We observed superior resolution (i.e., discrimination between correct and incorrect) for inclusion trials, but only when they were completed prior to use of the elimination strategy. In Experiment 2, all participants completed face recognition trials under inclusion instructions, but we manipulated the strategy used to assess confidence. Again, we observed a significant impact of strategy on confidence–accuracy resolution. Thus, we observed that both the strategy employed to reach a decision and that employed to assess confidence affected the confidence–accuracy relationship. We discuss theoretical and applied (particularly for eyewitness identification and multiple‐choice testing) implications. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.