风险敏感理论:需要驱动风险决策

风险敏感理论由研究动物觅食行为发展而来,提出有机体在有需要的状况下会出现从风险规避到风险寻求的行为,是风险决策领域内的一种生物学理论。目前风险敏感理论所做出的预测在动物和人类身上都获得了大量实证研究的支持,表明该理论可以解释很多领域中的风险决策。因此有必要对这一理论做一个系统的论述,包括对其理论来源和数学模型的发展演变进行梳理;从参照点等不同的角度分析该理论与其他决策理论的区别;并且,风险敏感理论也为经济不平等和权力等外部因素下的风险转移提供了解释,对已有研究做出了独特的贡献。     

Behaviorally-based decision-making training for children

A seven-step, behaviorally based, decision-making process was taught to 17 children, age 9–10 years. Each child's decision-making ability was measured before and after training, using two audiotaped stories that described problem situations typically encountered in the school or home. The children were asked to identify the problem, generate alternative solutions, think of positive and negative consequences for each solution, and offer a personal value supporting their decision. As compared to a no-treatment control group, the children receiving the decision-making training obtained significantly greater scores on four of five dependent measures. Implications for teaching decision-making as a self-management skill are offered.     

风险决策的神经机制:基于啮齿类动物研究

风险决策是在不同选项的结果确定、并且结果出现的概率已知情况下的决策。啮齿类风险决策模型研究发现前额皮层-杏仁核-伏隔核神经环路联系是决定风险决策的选择倾向的关键。前额皮层中的眶额皮层和内侧前额皮层参与风险决策的策略形成和策略转换有关;而皮层下核团中的杏仁核、腹侧纹状体的伏隔核等结构参与策略保持、价值判断,影响决策偏向和行动强度;眶额皮层、伏隔核神经元和多巴胺神经元编码风险决策过程中的概率、风险等因素;此外,多巴胺等单胺类神经递质及受体在风险决策中有复杂的作用。     

Web-based training improves on-field offside decision-making performance

ObjectiveThe present study examined to what extent off-field offside decision-making training transfers to real-life offside situations.Design/methodsEighteen Belgian assistant referees were included in the experiment. Ten assistant referees (i.e., training group) were exposed to a pre- and posttest and, in between, four off-field offside training sessions via a web-based training protocol. The remaining eight assistant referees participated in the control group and only completed the pre- and posttest. During both test sessions, which were conducted separately for each group, both an on- and off-field offside decision-making test was completed.ResultsFirst, an increase in response accuracy and a decrease in flag errors were observed for the training group from pre- to posttest in both the on- and off-field offside test. Second, only the training group improved in the recall and recognition accuracy of the position of the receiving attacker at the moment of the pass.ConclusionsThis study demonstrates that perceptual-cognitive skill training results in a positive and direct transfer to on-field offside decisions. Therefore, the structure and the content of the current training intervention mimics the perceptual difficulties of real-match situations and can help the assistant referees to mediate and enhance their offside decision-making skills, both on- and off-field.     

Sensation seeking, impulsive decision-making, and risky sex: implications for risk-taking and design of interventions

In an HIV prevention study, 2949 ninth-grade students in 17 high schools in two Midwestern U.S. cities were administered scales measuring sensation seeking and impulsive decision-making and their separate and combined relationships to a number of indicators of sexual risk-taking. Measures of sexual risk-taking included intentions to have sex, ever had sex, number of lifetime sexual partners, been pregnant or caused a pregnancy, used a condom, used marijuana, had unwanted sex when drunk, had unwanted sex under pressure, said no to sex, used alcohol or partner used alcohol before sex. Strong associations were observed between each of the measures and sexual risk-taking for most of the indicators. Strongest associations were found among sexually active students high on both sensation seeking and impulsive decision-making and weakest associations among students low on both measures. Implications for design of interventions in health campaigns are discussed.     

Value-based decision-making battery: A Bayesian adaptive approach to assess impulsive and risky behavior

Using simple mathematical models of choice behavior, we present a Bayesian adaptive algorithm to assess measures of impulsive and risky decision making. Practically, these measures are characterized by discounting rates and are used to classify individuals or population groups, to distinguish unhealthy behavior, and to predict developmental courses. However, a constant demand for improved tools to assess these constructs remains unanswered. The algorithm is based on trial-by-trial observations. At each step, a choice is made between immediate (certain) and delayed (risky) options. Then the current parameter estimates are updated by the likelihood of observing the choice, and the next offers are provided from the indifference point, so that they will acquire the most informative data based on the current parameter estimates. The procedure continues for a certain number of trials in order to reach a stable estimation. The algorithm is discussed in detail for the delay discounting case, and results from decision making under risk for gains, losses, and mixed prospects are also provided. Simulated experiments using prescribed parameter values were performed to justify the algorithm in terms of the reproducibility of its parameters for individual assessments, and to test the reliability of the estimation procedure in a group-level analysis. The algorithm was implemented as an experimental battery to measure temporal and probability discounting rates together with loss aversion, and was tested on a healthy participant sample.     

“金钱-环境”复合收益的风险决策:价值取向的影响

现实中的环境决策,往往要在多个由"金钱-环境"复合而成的结果间做选择。人们如何对异质复合结果进行评估与选择,是决策研究面临的新课题。本研究着重考察个体金钱取向和环境取向的相对强度对复合收益风险决策的影响。结果表明,无论是采用自陈量表(实验1)或内隐联想测验(实验2)来测量价值取向,还是采用混词造句任务(实验3)来启动价值取向,均发现价值取向相对强度对复合风险决策有显著影响。(1)相比于金钱取向占优的个体,环境取向占优的个体在进行复合风险决策时更偏好环境风险较小的复合选项;(2)在复合选项等价匹配任务中,环境取向占优的个体会赋予复合选项中的环境收益以更高权重,倾向于用更多的金钱收益来弥补环境收益的风险折扣;(3)在复合收益风险概率匹配任务中,环境取向占优的个体更倾向于为获取倍增的环境收益而承担更大的复合收益风险。作为对复合结果风险决策的首次探索,本研究初步回答了不同价值取向的个体在金钱-环境复合风险决策中更倾向于规避什么风险、拿什么冒险以及为什么冒险等问题,为今后进一步开展复合决策研究打下了理论和方法基础。     

Secondary psychopathy,but not primary psychopathy,is associated with risky decision-making in noninstitutionalized young adults

Although risky decision-making has been posited to contribute to the maladaptive behavior of individuals with psychopathic tendencies, the performance of psychopathic groups on a common task of risky decision-making, the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT; Bechara, Damasio, Damasio, & Anderson, 1994), has been equivocal. Different aspects of psychopathy (personality traits, antisocial deviance) and/or moderating variables may help to explain these inconsistent findings. In a sample of college students (N = 129, age 18–27), we examined the relationship between primary and secondary psychopathic features and IGT performance. A measure of impulsivity was included to investigate its potential as a moderator. In a joint model including main effects and interactions between primary psychopathy, secondary psychopathy and impulsivity, only secondary psychopathy was significantly related to risky IGT performance, and this effect was not moderated by the other variables. This finding supports the growing literature suggesting that secondary psychopathy is a better predictor of decision-making problems than the primary psychopathic personality traits of lack of empathy and remorselessness.     

虚拟和真实金钱奖赏幅度对海洛因戒断者风险决策的影响

已有研究表明海洛因成瘾者风险决策能力受损, 但少有研究关注不同幅度金钱奖赏对戒断期海洛因成瘾者风险决策的影响以及这种影响是否会受到金钱奖赏类型的调节。因此, 本研究使用气球模拟风险任务(BART), 通过两个实验探究不同幅度虚拟和真实金钱奖赏对海洛因戒断者风险决策的影响。结果显示, 在虚拟奖赏情景下, 海洛因戒断者未爆破气球按键次数和爆破气球个数均显著大于正常组被试, 以及两组被试在25分奖赏条件下的未爆破气球按键次数和爆破气球个数均显著大于1分奖赏; 而在真实奖赏情景下, 海洛因戒断者未爆破气球按键次数和爆破气球个数均显著小于正常组被试, 以及两组被试在25分奖赏条件下的未爆破气球按键次数和爆破气球个数均显著小于1分奖赏。研究结果表明, 金钱奖赏类型和金钱奖赏幅度会影响被试的风险决策行为。在虚拟奖赏情景下, 两组被试的风险偏好水平随着奖赏幅度的增加显著升高, 但是戒断期海洛因成瘾者的风险偏好水平高于正常组被试; 而在真实奖赏情景下, 两组被试的风险偏好水平随着奖赏幅度的增加显著降低, 同时戒断期海洛因成瘾者的风险偏好水平低于正常组被试。     

Ethical problems in research on risky behaviors and risky populations

The articles by Brooks-Gunn, Fisher, Hoagwood, Liss and Scott-Jones (all in this issue) present a panoply of real-world ethical issues in conducting scientific research on risky behaviors of children, adolescents, and their parents, particularly those from vulnerable populations. The universal, ethical principles of beneficence, justice, and respect for others are always applicable, but they do not resolve issues of child assent, parental consent, legal reporting requirements for illegal behaviors, and the special problems of studying risky behaviors in risky populations. Taken as a group, the articles raise some of the most interesting ethical problems that arise in developmental research. My discussion elaborates some issues and fails to resolve others. I hold the view that both science and ethics can be served by thoughtfully designed and implemented research on important social issues, but that the studies themselves cannot simultaneously solve the many societal problems of participants and be scientifically credible.     

Sensitivity to reward and risky driving,risky decision making,and risky health behaviour: A literature review

Young driver road safety has persisted as a global problem for decades, despite copious and diverse intervention. Recently the influence in reward sensitivity, which refers to the individual’s personal sensitivity to rewards, has received attention in health-related research, including more generally through decision making in risky circumstances, and in risky driving behaviour specifically. As such, a literature review and synthesis of the literature regarding reward sensitivity in relation to risky driving, risky decision making, and risky health behaviour, with a focus on literature in which adolescents and young adults feature, is timely. Thirty-one papers were identified, and the literature revealed that young drivers with greater reward sensitivity engage in more risky driving behaviours including speeding, crashes and traffic violations; and that individuals with greater reward sensitivity engage in more risky decision making and other risky health-related behaviours (such as drinking and drug use). Adolescents and young adults exhibit heightened sensitivity to rewards in the presence of peers, which has considerable implications for young driver road safety as research consistently demonstrates that carrying peer passengers places all vehicle occupants at greater risk of being involved in a road crash. Consideration of the influence of reward sensitivity in young driver road safety, and other adolescent/young adult health-related safety, appears to be a promising avenue of intervention, with gain-framed messages more likely to be accepted by young drivers with greater reward sensitivity. Future research in jurisdictions other than Australia and Europe will increase our understanding of the influence of reward sensitivity, and exploration of the differential impacts of reward-responsiveness and fun-seeking specifically are warranted.     

3D-Multiple Object Tracking training task improves passing decision-making accuracy in soccer players

ObjectivesThe ability to perform a context-free 3-dimensional multiple object tracking (3D-MOT) task has been highly related to athletic performance. In the present study, we assessed the transferability of a perceptual-cognitive 3D-MOT training from a laboratory setting to a soccer field, a sport in which the capacity to correctly read the dynamic visual scene is a prerequisite to performance.DesignThroughout pre- and post-training sessions, we looked at three essential skills (passing, dribbling, shooting) that are used to gain the upper hand over the opponent.MethodWe recorded decision-making accuracy during small-sided games in university-level soccer players (n = 23) before and after a training protocol. Experimental (n = 9) and active control (n = 7) groups were respectively trained during 10 sessions of 3D-MOT or 3D soccer videos. A passive control group (n = 7) did not received any particular training or instructions.ResultsDecision-making accuracy in passing, but not in dribbling and shooting, between pre- and post-sessions was superior for the 3D-MOT trained group compared to control groups. This result was correlated with the players' subjective decision-making accuracy, rated after pre- and post-sessions through a visual analogue scale questionnaire.ConclusionsTo our knowledge, this study represents the first evidence in which a non-contextual, perceptual-cognitive training exercise has a transfer effect onto the field in athletes.     

Attention in risky choice

Previous research on the processes involved in risky decisions has rarely linked process data to choice directly. We used a simple measure based on the relative amount of attentional deployment to different components (gains/losses and their probabilities) of a risky gamble during the choice process, and we related this measure to the actual choice. In an experiment we recorded the decisions, decision times, and eye movements of 80 participants who made decisions on 11 choice problems. We used the number of eye fixations and fixation transitions to trace the deployment of attention during the choice process and obtained the following main results. First, different components of a gamble attracted different amounts of attention depending on participants' actual choice. This was reflected in both the number of fixations and the fixation transitions. Second, the last-fixated gamble but not the last-fixated reason predicted participants' choices. Third, a comparison of data obtained with eye tracking and data obtained with verbal protocols from a previous study showed a large degree of convergence regarding the process of risky choice. Together these findings tend to support dimensional decision strategies such as the priority heuristic.     

Individual differences in preference for risky behaviors during courtship

Engaging in risky behaviors is a sexual signalling strategy that men use to procure mates. The present study investigates men’s preferences for engaging in risky behaviors (along with women’s preferences for their male partner’s risky behavior) within dating couples. We investigated associations between relationship length, self-perceived attractiveness, sociosexuality orientation, and preference for risky behaviors in a sample of 256 couples. Results indicated that men had stronger preferences for risky behaviors than their partner’s ideal preference. Furthermore, relationship length was associated with a decline in women’s preference for their partner’s risk-taking, but not men’s preference for their own risk-taking. Self-perceived attractiveness was negatively associated with risk preference, and sociosexuality orientation was not directly related to risk preference. Female preferences for less intense male risky behaviors could reflect the need of paternal investment which is required for offspring care. Decreased male sexual signalling could account for lower preferences of risky behaviors in females who are involved in longer lasting romantic relationships.     

乳腺摄片的计算机辅助诊断技术在乳腺癌诊断中的新进展

在全球范围内,乳腺癌是严重影响妇女身心健康的常见病之一.早期发现、早期诊断、早期治疗,是降低乳腺癌死亡率的关键.第二次阅片会明显提高乳腺癌诊断的灵敏度.然而纵观国内外文献,因乳腺图像数据库的来源和计算机辅助诊断系统方法的应用存在很大分歧,所以不同试验结果很难具有可比性.因此,计算机辅助诊断能否作为“第二次阅片者”还没有被证明.乳腺摄片的计算机辅助诊断技术在乳腺癌诊断中具有重要价值,住院医师和放射科医师都将从中受益.