The practice of crime linkage: A review of the literature

Crime linkage has been the subject of increasing attention in academic research. Research has found support for the principles of behavioural consistency and distinctiveness, which underpin crime linkage, but this does not provide direct evidence as to whether crime linkage is useful in practice. This literature review draws together documentation that refers to the practice of crime linkage, from assessing analysts' efficacy, to discussing the usage of computerised tools to assist with the linkage process, to providing a comprehensive outline of the process itself. The implications of the amount and type of information currently available are discussed, including the variations in practice and terminology that were explored. Avenues for future investigation and the manner in which future research could be conducted are set out in a research agenda.     

Linking serial residential burglary: comparing the utility of modus operandi behaviours,geographical proximity,and temporal proximity

Whilst case linkage is used with serious forms of serial crime (e.g. rape and murder), the potential exists for it to be used with volume crime. This study replicates and extends previous research on the behavioural linking of burglaries. One hundred and sixty solved residential burglaries were sampled from a British police force. From these, 80 linked crime pairs (committed by the same serial offender) and 80 unlinked crime pairs (committed by two different serial offenders) were created. Following the methodology used by previous researchers, the behavioural similarity, geographical proximity, and temporal proximity of linked crime pairs were compared with those of unlinked crime pairs. Geographical and temporal proximity possessed a high degree of predictive accuracy in distinguishing linked from unlinked pairs as assessed by logistic regression and receiver operating characteristic analyses. Comparatively, other traditional modus operandi behaviours showed less potential for linkage. Whilst personality psychology literature has suggested we might expect to find a relationship between temporal proximity and behavioural consistency, such a relationship was not observed. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A qualitative analysis of mock jurors' deliberations of linkage analysis evidence

Evidence about a suspect's behavioural similarity across a series of crimes has been presented in legal proceedings in at least three different countries. Its admission as expert evidence, whilst still rare, is becoming more common thus it is important for us to understand how such evidence is received by jurors and legal professionals. This article reports on a qualitative analysis of mock jurors' deliberations about expert linkage analysis evidence. Three groups of mock jurors (N = 20) were presented with the prosecution's linkage analysis evidence from the USA State v. Fortin I murder trial and expert evidence for the defence constructed for the purposes of the study. Each group was asked to deliberate and reach a verdict. Deliberations were video‐recorded and subject to thematic content analysis. The themes that emerged were varied. Analysis suggested that the mock jurors were cautious of the expert evidence of behavioural similarity. In some cases they were sceptical of the expert. They articulated a preference that expert opinion be supported using statistics. Additional themes included jurors having misconceptions concerning what is typical offender behaviour during rape which suggests there is a need for expert linkage analysis evidence regarding behavioural similarities and the relative frequencies of crime scene behaviours. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Linking property crime using offender crime scene behaviour: A comparison of methods

This study compared the ability of seven statistical models to distinguish between linked and unlinked crimes. The seven models utilised geographical, temporal, and modus operandi information relating to residential burglaries (n = 180), commercial robberies, (n = 118), and car thefts (n = 376). Model performance was assessed using receiver operating characteristic analysis and by examining the success with which the seven models could successfully prioritise linked over unlinked crimes. The regression‐based and probabilistic models achieved comparable accuracy and were generally more accurate than the tree‐based models tested in this study. The Logistic algorithm achieved the highest area under the curve (AUC) for residential burglary (AUC = 0.903) and commercial robbery (AUC = 0.830) and the SimpleLogistic algorithm achieving the highest for car theft (AUC = 0.820). The findings also indicated that discrimination accuracy is maximised (in some situations) if behavioural domains are utilised rather than individual crime scene behaviours and that the AUC should not be used as the sole measure of accuracy in behavioural crime linkage research.     

Latent semantic analysis cosines as a cognitive similarity measure: Evidence from priming studies

In distributional semantics models (DSMs) such as latent semantic analysis (LSA), words are represented as vectors in a high-dimensional vector space. This allows for computing word similarities as the cosine of the angle between two such vectors. In two experiments, we investigated whether LSA cosine similarities predict priming effects, in that higher cosine similarities are associated with shorter reaction times (RTs). Critically, we applied a pseudo-random procedure in generating the item material to ensure that we directly manipulated LSA cosines as an independent variable. We employed two lexical priming experiments with lexical decision tasks (LDTs). In Experiment 1 we presented participants with 200 different prime words, each paired with one unique target. We found a significant effect of cosine similarities on RTs. The same was true for Experiment 2, where we reversed the prime-target order (primes of Experiment 1 were targets in Experiment 2, and vice versa). The results of these experiments confirm that LSA cosine similarities can predict priming effects, supporting the view that they are psychologically relevant. The present study thereby provides evidence for qualifying LSA cosine similarities not only as a linguistic measure, but also as a cognitive similarity measure. However, it is also shown that other DSMs can outperform LSA as a predictor of priming effects.     

The use of a linkage analysis as evidence in the conviction of the Newcastle serial murderer,South Africa

The linking of a series of crimes to one individual has always been problematic, especially in the absence of eyewitness or forensic evidence. During the investigation, another means whereby this can be done is through linkage analysis. Yet a linkage analysis can also play a role during the trial of a serial offender. This paper examines the use of a linkage analysis report as evidence during the trial of the Newcastle serial murderer in South Africa. The linkage analysis examined the circumstances of the crime, modus operandi, and signature behaviour of the offender, to come to the conclusion that all the offences were committed by one individual, despite the lack of eyewitness or forensic evidence linking the suspect to two of the four incidents. This evidence was admitted by the court and the presiding officer concurred that the accused was guilty of committing the crimes during the third and fourth incidents. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evidence for serial coercion: a time course analysis using the visual-world paradigm

Metonymic verbs like start or enjoy often occur with artifact-denoting complements (e.g., The artist started the picture) although semantically they require event-denoting complements (e.g., The artist started painting the picture). In case of artifact-denoting objects, the complement is assumed to be type shifted (or coerced) into an event to conform to the verb's semantic restrictions. Psycholinguistic research has provided evidence for this kind of enriched composition: readers experience processing difficulty when faced with metonymic constructions compared to non-metonymic controls. However, slower reading times for metonymic constructions could also be due to competition between multiple interpretations that are being entertained in parallel whenever a metonymic verb is encountered. Using the visual-world paradigm, we devised an experiment which enabled us to determine the time course of metonymic interpretation in relation to non-metonymic controls. The experiment provided evidence in favor of a non-competitive, serial coercion process.     

Beyond common features: the role of roles in determining similarity

Historically, accounts of object representation and perceived similarity have focused on intrinsic features. Although more recent accounts have explored how objects, scenes, and situations containing common relational structures come to be perceived as similar, less is known about how the perceived similarity of parts or objects embedded within these relational systems is affected. The current studies test the hypothesis that objects situated in common relational systems come to be perceived as more similar. Similarity increases most for objects playing the same role within a relation (e.g., predator), but also increases for objects playing different roles within the same relation (e.g., the predator or prey role in the hunts relation) regardless of whether the objects participate in the same instance of the relation. This pattern of results can be captured by extending existing models that extract meaning from text corpora so that they are sensitive to the verb-specific thematic roles that objects fill. Alternative explanations based on analogical and inferential processes are also considered, as well as the implications of the current findings to research in language processing, decision making, and category learning.     

From a single-level analysis to a multilevel analysis of single-case experimental designs

Multilevel modeling provides one approach to synthesizing single-case experimental design data. In this study, we present the multilevel model (the two-level and the three-level models) for summarizing single-case results over cases, over studies, or both. In addition to the basic multilevel models, we elaborate on several plausible alternative models. We apply the proposed models to real datasets and investigate to what extent the estimated treatment effect is dependent on the modeling specifications and the underlying assumptions. By considering a range of plausible models and assumptions, researchers can determine the degree to which the effect estimates and conclusions are sensitive to the specific assumptions made. If the same conclusions are reached across a range of plausible assumptions, confidence in the conclusions can be enhanced. We advise researchers not to focus on one model but conduct multiple plausible multilevel analyses and investigate whether the results depend on the modeling options.     

Resolution of an impasse at a network meeting: Dialogical sequence analysis of the use of a shared formulation

The study describes the resolution of an impasse at a network meeting during clinical child neurological assessment procedure, analysed by dialogical sequence analysis (DSA) a micro-analytic method for analysing utterances. The two earlier studies of the project describe how a DSA-based case conceptualisation can be used to assess change in the dyadic interaction between neuropsychologist and parent. This study applies the same formulation to analyse group level interaction at the network meeting. The case of a four-year-old girl was selected from a database of videotaped and transcribed child neurological team assessment processes. A repetitive problematic pattern was clearly manifested between parents and the child. At an early stage of the assessment, the neuropsychologist formulated and shared with the parents a clinical formulation of the pattern, summarised as the controlling/coercive parents to the rebellious child. In the earlier studies, microanalysis using DSA confirmed the accuracy of the neuropsychologist’s initial formulation, which she had used in the encounters with the parents. This study traces how she made use of it to address a re-enactment of the problematic pattern, now between the parents and professionals at the network meeting. The analysis of the phases of the conflict resolution by using DSA suggests that the impasse represented a re-enactment of the role positions of coercion and rebelliousness. The use of the original formulation at the meeting helped the conflicting parties to reach an observing stance to the pattern and a more empathic attitude to each other. The micro-analytic methodology by DSA used in this study allows to show the therapeutic potential of the network meeting and also how the development of an empathic stance is manifested in the discourse content.     

探究事件相关脑电/脑磁信号中的神经表征模式：基于分类解码和表征相似性分析的方法

探究不同心智活动下的神经表征差异, 是认知神经科学关注的核心问题之一。早期的脑电/脑磁分析方法主要关注组平均后的神经响应水平, 这要求在关注的时间进程上, 各个被试在相同刺激条件下事件相关电位/事件相关磁场的振幅大小和方向、以及地形图分布和极性均要有较高的一致性。近些年来, 研究者们将功能性磁共振成像研究中常用到的两种技术——机器学习中的分类算法(即基于分类的解码)和表征相似性分析——引入到了脑电/脑磁数据分析中。这两种新技术可以克服传统脑电/脑磁数据基于具体电压/磁感应强度波形平均分析的缺点, 具有在个体水平上探究神经表征编码的特点, 为人们探究大脑在不同时间进程上如何对特定的神经表征信息进行动态编码提供了新的思路。两种技术基于不同的方法学原理来抽提个体间一致的脑认知加工机制, 还为脑电/脑磁研究开展跨时域、跨任务、跨模态、跨群体比较不同认知过程中的表征差异提供了更多新颖的途径。我们首先通过与传统的脑电/脑磁分析方法进行比较, 系统性介绍了基于分类的解码和表征相似性分析的原理和操作流程, 之后对两种方法的应用场景进行了梳理, 并在最后对未来可供研究的方向提出了我们的见解。     

From one room to the other: a story of contamination. The relationship between child and adult analysis

Does the analyst who works with both children and adults using ostensibly the same theoretical model perform similar mental operations in these two fields? The author suggests that child analysis is rooted in a different creative process from that of adults. Comparing the analysis of children to painting and that of adults to writing, and making use of the debate between Virginia Woolf and her sister Vanessa Bell on the relative merits of words and images, the author explores the psychoanalytic debate on the role of child analysis in the development of psychoanalytic theory and practice. Child analysis, initially regarded as an application of psychoanalysis, ended up acting as a catalyst for a true epistemological revolution in the 20th century through the work of Klein and Bion. Playing is not only an alternative medium to words for representing the unconscious but a different method for giving shape to representations through a specific creative process. The reverie which is born in the child analyst’s consulting room reproduces itself through the body’s actions during play, whereas in the adults’ consulting room the analyst’s capacity to dream presupposes the suspension of action. Child analysis, deploying a distinctive creative process that makes use of the body and serves itself of action in its development, may be said to rest on a similar creative process to that of figurative art. For this reason, the child analyst’s mind relates to objects in a different way, being in a more prolonged state of fusion with these as a result of ‘concentration of the body’. The significance of the unspeakable things that take place can often only be conceptualized in après‐coup. Although this difference in the development of the process suggests a significant distinction between the two ‘arts’ of child and adult analysis, the aesthetic sensitivity acquired through child analysis can be profitably used with adults, as will be demonstrated with the help of several clinical examples.     

A predictive model for psychological reactions to crime in Italy: an analysis of fear of crime and concern about crime as a social problem

In this study a model for predicting fear of crime (FC) and concern about crime as a social problem (CC) in Italy has been built, using three sets of independent variables concerning: (a) the sociodemographic and criminal victimization domain; (b) the psychosocial domain; and (c) the mass media. A secondary analysis on data gathered by the Observatory of the North‐West (N = 3262, a mail panel that is representative of the Italian population over 18) has been performed. Results showed that FC and CC are related yet distinct constructs: FC is less widespread than CC, and has different predictors. FC predictors are sociodemographic, psychosocial and, above all, victimization variables; whereas mass media and psychosocial variables predict CC. Results were compared with the literature on the topic. Implications, limitations, and future directions are discussed. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Improving reading outcomes for children with learning disabilities: using brief experimental analysis to develop parent-tutoring interventions

The present study assessed the effects of summer parent tutoring on 3 children with learning disabilities using empirically derived reading interventions. Brief experimental analyses were used to identify customized reading fluency interventions. Parents were trained to use the intervention strategies with their children. Parents implemented the procedures during parent-tutoring sessions at home and results were measured continuously in high-word-overlap and low-word-overlap passages to determine whether generalization occurred. Parent and child satisfaction with the procedures was assessed. Results demonstrated generalized increases in reading fluency in both high-word-overlap and low-word-overlap passages as a function of parent tutoring. Also, acceptability ratings by children and their parents indicated that they viewed the interventions as acceptable and effective. Results are discussed in terms of structuring reading fluency interventions that promote generalization and maintenance of treatment effects.     

Linking patterns of infant eye movements to a neural network model of the ventral stream using representational similarity analysis

Little is known about the development of higher-level areas of visual cortex during infancy, and even less is known about how the development of visually guided behavior is related to the different levels of the cortical processing hierarchy. As a first step toward filling these gaps, we used representational similarity analysis (RSA) to assess links between gaze patterns and a neural network model that captures key properties of the ventral visual processing stream. We recorded the eye movements of 4- to 12-month-old infants (N = 54) as they viewed photographs of scenes. For each infant, we calculated the similarity of the gaze patterns for each pair of photographs. We also analyzed the images using a convolutional neural network model in which the successive layers correspond approximately to the sequence of areas along the ventral stream. For each layer of the network, we calculated the similarity of the activation patterns for each pair of photographs, which was then compared with the infant gaze data. We found that the network layers corresponding to lower-level areas of visual cortex accounted for gaze patterns better in younger infants than in older infants, whereas the network layers corresponding to higher-level areas of visual cortex accounted for gaze patterns better in older infants than in younger infants. Thus, between 4 and 12 months, gaze becomes increasingly controlled by more abstract, higher-level representations. These results also demonstrate the feasibility of using RSA to link infant gaze behavior to neural network models. A video abstract of this article can be viewed at https://youtu.be/K5mF2Rw98Is     

Police evaluation research: an experimental and cost-benefit analysis of a helicopter patrol in a high crime area

The significance of a helicopter patrol procedure directed toward prevention of home burglaries was evaluated from experimental and cost-benefit perspectives. The helicopter patrolled one city zone from 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. for two 12-day periods. Each 12-day period was separated by a baseline period in which only normal patrol-car levels were maintained. Significantly reduced burglary levels during the intervention periods, compared to baseline periods, documented the experimental significance of the helicopter procedure. The cash costs of implementing the patrol procedure were compared to two estimates of the resulting cash benefits. This latter cost-benefit analysis was supplemented by a discussion of the intangible costs and benefits of the helicopter procedure. Taken together, these analyses documented that the marginal costs of the helicopter intervention were exceeded by all estimates of benefits.     

Applied behavior analysis is ideal for the development of a land mine detection technology using animals

The detection and subsequent removal of land mines and unexploded ordnance (UXO) from many developing countries are slow, expensive, and dangerous tasks, but have the potential to improve the well-being of millions of people. Consequently, those involved with humanitarian mine and UXO clearance are actively searching for new and more efficient detection technologies. Remote explosive scent tracing (REST) using trained dogs has the potential to be one such technology. However, details regarding how best to train, test, and deploy dogs in this role have never been made publicly available. This article describes how the key characteristics of applied behavior analysis, as described by Baer, Wolf and Risley (1968, 1987), served as important objectives for the research and development of the behavioral technology component of REST while the author worked in humanitarian demining.     

An examination of the validity and reliability of a measure of sexual orientation identity exploration,resolution, and affirmation

The processes of identity exploration and resolution are salient during adolescence and young adulthood, and awareness of sexual orientation identity (SOI), in particular, is heightened in early adolescence. Much of the research on SOI development has focused on identity milestones (e.g., age of awareness and disclosure) or internalized homonegativity, rather than the developmental processes of exploration and resolution. Psychometric properties of the Sexual Orientation Identity Development Scale, which was adapted from a developmentally-informed measure of ethnic-racial identity, were evaluated in a sample of 382 Latina/o sexual minority adolescents and young adults. Results supported the reliability and validity of the adapted measure, as well as measurement equivalence across language (Spanish and English) and development (adolescence and young adulthood).     

Using the dual‐criteria methods to supplement visual inspection: An analysis of nonsimulated data

The purpose of our study was to examine the probability of observing false positives in nonsimulated data using the dual‐criteria methods. We extracted data from published studies to produce a series of 16,927 datasets and then assessed the proportion of false positives for various phase lengths. Our results indicate that collecting at least three data points in the first phase (Phase A) and at least five data points in the second phase (Phase B) is generally sufficient to produce acceptable levels of false positives.