基于增长模型的非随机缺失数据处理:选择模型和极大似然方法

对含有非随机缺失数据的潜变量增长模型,为了考察基于不同假设的缺失数据处理方法:极大似然(ML)方法与DiggleKenward选择模型的优劣,通过Monte Carlo模拟研究,比较两种方法对模型中增长参数估计精度及其标准误估计的差异,并考虑样本量、非随机缺失比例和随机缺失比例的影响。结果表明,符合前提假设的Diggle-Kenward选择模型的参数估计精度普遍高于ML方法;对于标准误估计值,ML方法存在一定程度的低估,得到的置信区间覆盖比率也明显低于Diggle-Kenward选择模型。     

协变量相关对时变效应模型参数估计的影响

时变效应模型被广泛应用于密集追踪研究中,研究者往往会同时纳入2个或以上协变量。然而,协变量相关对其参数估计的影响较少被研究者关注。本研究在不同类型协变量的情境下,采用蒙特卡洛模拟,探讨协变量相关对时变效应模型参数估计的影响,结果表明：（1）在两种协变量类型的情境下,协变量相关都会影响时变效应模型斜率函数β_1和斜率函数β_2参数估计的准确性;（2）两种协变量类型的情境下,协变量相关和样本量的交互作用都会影响时变效应模型斜率函数β_1和斜率函数β_2参数估计的准确性;（3）两种协变量类型的情境下,样本量、观测数据缺失率主要通过主效应影响时变效应模型参数估计的准确性。     

K-means、潜在类别模型和混合Rasch模型的比较

基于模拟研究比较了K-means方法、潜在类别模型和混合Rasch模型在二分外显变量情境下的聚类效果.结果表明：（1）潜在类别数量、变量数量、样本量、样本平衡和变量间相关对K-means方法、潜在类别模型和混合Rasch模型的分类准确性均有影响且因素间的交互作用存在;（2）除了在2个潜在类别的样本不平衡条件下K-means方法表现较差外,在其他条件下与潜在类别模型和混合Rasch模型的表现相当;（3）混合Rasch模型的分类一致性在2个潜在类别的情境下要好于潜在类别模型,但是在4个潜在类别的情境下要差于潜在类别模型.     

不同条件下拟合指数的表现及临界值的选择

在本模拟研究中设计了6种样本容量,6种因子载荷,和4种评分等级,并考察了正态和非正态分布两种情况。采用的错误模型为参数误置（真模型中每个因子各由5个题目来测量,错误模型中则是第一个因子由6个题测量,另两个因子各由4个和5个题来测量,即有一个因子载荷被误置）模型。结果发现（1）样本量、载荷量、评分等级数和分布形态都对GOF的取值确有影响。其中分布形态的影响最大。NNFI、IFI在不同条件下的平均值是最稳定的,其次是CFI、RMSEA和SRMR。它们都算是值得推荐的GOF,尤其是NNFI和IFI。（2）在正态分布中,当样本量≥1000时,根据NNFI、IFI、CFI、RMSEA、SRMR对模型是否拟合做出判断时有很低的两类错误率,在样本量<1000时则不理想。在偏态条件下无论选择哪个GOF两类错误率都很高。（3）采用2指数策略在很多情况下也不能显著降低两类错误率。（4）由于在数据分布非正态,或正态但样本量<1000时是难判断模型是否拟合的。因此我们提出了2界值策略。即为每个GOF确定上下两个界值。低于下界值时可判断模型是不正确的,而高于上界值时则可判断模型是正确的。GOF取值处于上下界值之间时难以判断模型是否拟合,只能说越高拟合的可能性越大。这时就要通过跨样本验证和增加样本量来确定模型是否正确     

置信区间宽度等高线图在线性混合效应模型样本量规划中的应用

线性混合效应模型在分析具有嵌套结构的心理学实验数据时具有明显优势。本文提出了置信区间宽度等高线图用于该模型的样本量规划。通过等高线图,确定同时符合检验力、效应量准确性以及置信区间宽度要求的被试量和试次数。结合关注被试内实验效应和被试变量调节效应的两类典型模型,通过两个模拟研究,采用基于蒙特卡洛模拟方法,探索效应量、随机效应大小和被试变量类型对置信区间宽度等高线图及样本量规划结果的影响。     

多阶段混合增长模型的方法及研究现状

多阶段混合增长模型(PGMM)可对发展过程中的阶段性及群体异质性特征进行分析,在能力发展、行为发展及干预、临床心理等研究领域应用广泛。PGMM可在结构方程模型和随机系数模型框架下定义,通常使用基于EM算法的极大似然估计和基于马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛模拟的贝叶斯推断两种方法进行参数估计。样本量、测量时间点数、潜在类别距离等因素对模型及参数估计有显著影响。未来应加强PGMM与其它增长模型的比较研究;在相同或不同的模型框架下研究数据特征、类别属性等对参数估计方法的影响。     

基于情绪调节模型的教师情绪劳动的中介效应探讨

本研究以Grandey的情绪调节模型为框架,通过问卷调查的方法,探讨正性情绪、负性情绪、情绪劳动以及职业倦怠之间的关系。828名中小学教师的有效数据的回归分析结果显示:基于不同情绪感受的情绪劳动对职业倦怠的影响存在差异;情绪劳动各维度既充当正负情绪均值差距(M_N-P)影响职业倦怠各维度的部分中介变量,又充当正负情绪变异系数差距(CV_N-P)影响去个性化或个人成就感的部分中介变量;表层行为、深层行为在正负情绪均值差距(M_N-P)影响去个性化之间的部分中介效应受到性别的调节。     

潜在剖面模型的后续分析——比较分类分析法改进后的偏差

传统的分类分析法虽然是潜在类别模型常用的后续分析方法,但容易导致后续模型中潜在类别与其他变量之间关系的低估。现阶段已发展出多种改进的方法:一步法、基于模型的方法、Bartlett法,改进的分类分析法(包括ML三步法、BCH法、纳入式分类分析法)。本文对这些方法研究进行综述总结,进一步针对心理学研究数据的特点,使用模拟实验探讨适用于潜在剖面模型的分类分析方法,结果发现:传统方法低估潜在类别变量与因变量的关系;ML三步法只有在潜在类别概率分布平均时估计精确;BCH法估计最接近真值,但在低分类区分度、大效果量时出现概率估计为负值的情况;纳入法虽有轻微的高估,但在各种模拟条件下参数估计最为稳健。这些方法受分类区分度、类别概率均匀性以及潜在类别变量与附属变量关系的效果量所影响。     

纵向关系的探究：基于交叉滞后结构的追踪模型

基于交叉滞后结构的追踪模型对于揭示变量间纵向关系具有重要作用,也为因果关系的验证奠定了基础。交叉滞后面板模型在一定条件下可转换为其他形式的模型,如何选择适当的模型是重要的议题。研究对各模型进行概述,并从模型结构、预设轨迹、时间点要求等方面进行比较,最后通过一个实例说明如何选择适当的模型。结果表明,不同模型在变量关系的判断上可能给出很不同的结果,实际运用中应当有模型选择和模型比较的意识。     

二参数逻辑斯蒂模型项目参数的估计精度

项目参数的估计精度对于测验的编制尤其是题库的建立十分重要。目前,国内外对项目参数估计精度的研究,大部分是基于在已知项目参数真值的情况下,运用各种参数估计方法产生新的估计值,再和真值进行偏度(BIAS)和均方根差(RMSE)的比较,从而说明该种估计方法的有效性。但是这种方法不能提供不同的参数真值之间的估计误差的变化规律。为了弥补这一缺陷,本文尝试从项目参数估计信息函数的角度出发研究项目参数的估计精度问题。本研究以二参数Logistic模型作为研究对象,首先定义了项目参数的估计信息函数,然后基于完全随机实验设计,通过模拟研究的方法探索影响项目参数的估计精度的因素,实验共设计了(2×3×2)种情形。研究结果表明：(1)项目参数(a,b)的估计精度均随着被试样本量的增大而提高;(2)被试的能力分布对难度参数的估计精度影响较大,对区分度参数的估计精度影响相对较小;(3)难度参数和区分度参数的估计精度都分别受到参数a和参数b的共同作用。     

Growth modeling with nonignorable dropout: alternative analyses of the STAR*D antidepressant trial

This article uses a general latent variable framework to study a series of models for nonignorable missingness due to dropout. Nonignorable missing data modeling acknowledges that missingness may depend not only on covariates and observed outcomes at previous time points as with the standard missing at random assumption, but also on latent variables such as values that would have been observed (missing outcomes), developmental trends (growth factors), and qualitatively different types of development (latent trajectory classes). These alternative predictors of missing data can be explored in a general latent variable framework with the Mplus program. A flexible new model uses an extended pattern-mixture approach where missingness is a function of latent dropout classes in combination with growth mixture modeling. A new selection model not only allows an influence of the outcomes on missingness but allows this influence to vary across classes. Model selection is discussed. The missing data models are applied to longitudinal data from the Sequenced Treatment Alternatives to Relieve Depression (STAR*D) study, the largest antidepressant clinical trial in the United States to date. Despite the importance of this trial, STAR*D growth model analyses using nonignorable missing data techniques have not been explored until now. The STAR*D data are shown to feature distinct trajectory classes, including a low class corresponding to substantial improvement in depression, a minority class with a U-shaped curve corresponding to transient improvement, and a high class corresponding to no improvement. The analyses provide a new way to assess drug efficiency in the presence of dropout.     

Estimating Incremental Validity Under Missing Data

A common form of missing data is caused by selection on an observed variable (e.g., Z). If the selection variable was measured and is available, the data are regarded as missing at random (MAR). Selection biases correlation, reliability, and effect size estimates when these estimates are computed on listwise deleted (LD) data sets. On the other hand, maximum likelihood (ML) estimates are generally unbiased and outperform LD in most situations, at least when the data are MAR. The exception is when we estimate the partial correlation. In this situation, LD estimates are unbiased when the cause of missingness is partialled out. In other words, there is no advantage of ML estimates over LD estimates in this situation. We demonstrate that under a MAR condition, even ML estimates may become biased, depending on how partial correlations are computed. Finally, we conclude with recommendations about how future researchers might estimate partial correlations even when the cause of missingness is unknown and, perhaps, unknowable.     

Missing not at random models for latent growth curve analyses

The past decade has seen a noticeable shift in missing data handling techniques that assume a missing at random (MAR) mechanism, where the propensity for missing data on an outcome is related to other analysis variables. Although MAR is often reasonable, there are situations where this assumption is unlikely to hold, leading to biased parameter estimates. One such example is a longitudinal study of substance use where participants with the highest frequency of use also have the highest likelihood of attrition, even after controlling for other correlates of missingness. There is a large body of literature on missing not at random (MNAR) analysis models for longitudinal data, particularly in the field of biostatistics. Because these methods allow for a relationship between the outcome variable and the propensity for missing data, they require a weaker assumption about the missing data mechanism. This article describes 2 classic MNAR modeling approaches for longitudinal data: the selection model and the pattern mixture model. To date, these models have been slow to migrate to the social sciences, in part because they required complicated custom computer programs. These models are now quite easy to estimate in popular structural equation modeling programs, particularly Mplus. The purpose of this article is to describe these MNAR modeling frameworks and to illustrate their application on a real data set. Despite their potential advantages, MNAR-based analyses are not without problems and also rely on untestable assumptions. This article offers practical advice for implementing and choosing among different longitudinal models.     

Effects of skewness and kurtosis on normal-theory based maximum likelihood test statistic in multilevel structural equation modeling

A simulation study investigated the effects of skewness and kurtosis on level-specific maximum likelihood (ML) test statistics based on normal theory in multilevel structural equation models. The levels of skewness and kurtosis at each level were manipulated in multilevel data, and the effects of skewness and kurtosis on level-specific ML test statistics were examined. When the assumption of multivariate normality was violated, the level-specific ML test statistics were inflated, resulting in Type I error rates that were higher than the nominal level for the correctly specified model. Q-Q plots of the test statistics against a theoretical chi-square distribution showed that skewness led to a thicker upper tail and kurtosis led to a longer upper tail of the observed distribution of the level-specific ML test statistic for the correctly specified model.     

Estimating age change in list recall in asset and health dynamics of the oldest-old: the effects of attrition bias and missing data treatment

Average change in list recall was evaluated as a function of missing data treatment (Study 1) and dropout status (Study 2) over ages 70 to 105 in Asset and Health Dynamics of the Oldest-Old data. In Study 1 the authors compared results of full-information maximum likelihood (FIML) and the multiple imputation (MI) missing-data treatments with and without independent predictors of missingness. Results showed declines in all treatments, but declines were larger for FIML and MI treatments when predictors were included in the treatment of missing data, indicating that attrition bias was reduced. In Study 2, models that included dropout status had better fits and reduced random variance compared with models without dropout status. The authors conclude that change estimates are most accurate when independent predictors of missingness are included in the treatment of missing data with either MI or FIML and when dropout effects are modeled.     

Bias in longitudinal data analysis with missing data using typical linear mixed‐effects modelling and pattern‐mixture approach: An analytical illustration

We analytically derive the fixed‐effects estimates in unconditional linear growth curve models by typical linear mixed‐effects modelling (TLME) and by a pattern‐mixture (PM) approach with random‐slope‐dependent two‐missing‐pattern missing not at random (MNAR) longitudinal data. Results showed that when the missingness mechanism is random‐slope‐dependent MNAR, TLME estimates of both the mean intercept and mean slope are biased because of incorrect weights used in the estimation. More specifically, the estimate of the mean slope is biased towards the mean slope for completers, whereas the estimate of the mean intercept is biased towards the opposite direction as compared to the estimate of the mean slope. We also discuss why the PM approach can provide unbiased fixed‐effects estimates for random‐coefficients‐dependent MNAR data but does not work well for missing at random or outcome‐dependent MNAR data. A small simulation study was conducted to illustrate the results and to compare results from TLME and PM. Results from an empirical data analysis showed that the conceptual finding can be generalized to other real conditions even when some assumptions for the analytical derivation cannot be met. Implications from the analytical and empirical results were discussed and sensitivity analysis was suggested for longitudinal data analysis with missing data.     

Bayesian Inference for Growth Mixture Models with Latent Class Dependent Missing Data

Growth mixture models (GMMs) with nonignorable missing data have drawn increasing attention in research communities but have not been fully studied. The goal of this article is to propose and to evaluate a Bayesian method to estimate the GMMs with latent class dependent missing data. An extended GMM is first presented in which class probabilities depend on some observed explanatory variables and data missingness depends on both the explanatory variables and a latent class variable. A full Bayesian method is then proposed to estimate the model. Through the data augmentation method, conditional posterior distributions for all model parameters and missing data are obtained. A Gibbs sampling procedure is then used to generate Markov chains of model parameters for statistical inference. The application of the model and the method is first demonstrated through the analysis of mathematical ability growth data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, 1997). A simulation study considering 3 main factors (the sample size, the class probability, and the missing data mechanism) is then conducted and the results show that the proposed Bayesian estimation approach performs very well under the studied conditions. Finally, some implications of this study, including the misspecified missingness mechanism, the sample size, the sensitivity of the model, the number of latent classes, the model comparison, and the future directions of the approach, are discussed.     

Examining Nonnormal Latent Variable Distributions for Non-Ignorable Missing Data

Missing not at random (MNAR) modeling for non-ignorable missing responses usually assumes that the latent variable distribution is a bivariate normal distribution. Such an assumption is rarely verified and often employed as a standard in practice. Recent studies for “complete” item responses (i.e., no missing data) have shown that ignoring the nonnormal distribution of a unidimensional latent variable, especially skewed or bimodal, can yield biased estimates and misleading conclusion. However, dealing with the bivariate nonnormal latent variable distribution with present MNAR data has not been looked into. This article proposes to extend unidimensional empirical histogram and Davidian curve methods to simultaneously deal with nonnormal latent variable distribution and MNAR data. A simulation study is carried out to demonstrate the consequence of ignoring bivariate nonnormal distribution on parameter estimates, followed by an empirical analysis of “don’t know” item responses. The results presented in this article show that examining the assumption of bivariate nonnormal latent variable distribution should be considered as a routine for MNAR data to minimize the impact of nonnormality on parameter estimates.     

认知诊断缺失数据处理方法的比较：零替换、多重插补与极大似然估计法

数据缺失在测验中经常发生, 认知诊断评估也不例外, 数据缺失会导致诊断结果的偏差。首先, 通过模拟研究在多种实验条件下比较了常用的缺失数据处理方法。结果表明：(1)缺失数据导致估计精确性下降, 随着人数与题目数量减少、缺失率增大、题目质量降低, 所有方法的PCCR均下降, Bias绝对值和RMSE均上升。(2)估计题目参数时, EM法表现最好, 其次是MI, FIML和ZR法表现不稳定。(3)估计被试知识状态时, EM和FIML表现最好, MI和ZR表现不稳定。其次, 在PISA2015实证数据中进一步探索了不同方法的表现。综合模拟和实证研究结果, 推荐选用EM或FIML法进行缺失数据处理。