A parameter analysis method for the weight‐set to satisfy preference orders of alternatives in additive multi‐criteria value models

In the context of the additive multi‐criteria value model, this paper investigates how the set of criteria weights (weight‐set hereafter) can be determined according to the preference orders of alternatives given by the decision maker. A construction method is proposed for the weight‐set for different intervals of β, where β is a differential amount of value between the preference information on two alternatives. The results of this paper are important for sensitivity analysis in multi‐criteria decision making (MCDM) problems and multi‐criteria group decision analysis. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Attribute‐based differentiation of alternatives

An intermediate step is introduced to the dialogue decision process for decision analysis. Alternatives are refined after they have been generated within a strategy table but before they are subject to more detailed evaluation. Two or more judges create a subjective mapping from alternatives to attributes that will later be mapped to criteria. In strategy tables, each of the alternative strategies consists of a coherent set of choices made across several decisions that are to be coordinated. These strategic alternatives are modified so as to increase their differentiation in the attribute space, rather than in the decision space alone. When criteria weights are unknown, the best alternative from the modified set may be superior to the best alternative from the original set. Furthermore, analysis of the resulting alternatives may yield a better mapping of the value response surface for the action space, in the sense that this mapping leads to eventual construction of a higher value alternative. Results are reported for a consulting engagement incorporating the proposed step. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Decision‐Analytic Approach for Water Sustainability Definition: A Higher Education Case Study

The purpose of this paper is to describe the development of a multi‐criteria decision analysis approach that can be used to circumscribe the definition of sustainability within an organization or institution with multiple operational divisions. Although our overall definition of sustainability is a process, the George Washington University (GW) definition of water sustainability is articulated through construction of an objective‐value hierarchy representing GW's strategic objectives and articulation of strength of preference among the attributes in that hierarchy. This study used multi‐criteria decision analysis methods, including structured interviews with four individual stakeholders and swing weighting. Three findings are of note. First, our stakeholders' thinking about their objectives was greatly influenced by perceived constraints and mandatory obligations on institutional performance implied by contracts or tradition. Second, in considering the trade‐off weights obtained from the swing‐weighting portion of the value assessment, all stakeholders placed similar emphasis on each of the fundamental objectives. Third, because of the decentralized nature of the university, the process through which the value assessment will be achieved must be transparent and accepted by each of the stakeholders supporting sustainability decisions. This case study illustrates a decision‐analytic sustainability approach that may be applied to large‐scale infrastructure systems, stakeholder engagement and negotiation in sustainability investments or alternatives assessments. Although the commitment to reduce climate impacts has been widespread, there have been fewer publicly announced water initiatives at the university level. At the university level, GW is only one of a handful of universities with a cohesive, visible, water plan. In addition, we demonstrate an approach in which explicit structuring of fundamental sustainability objectives may increase transparency for sustainability definition construction. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evolution of multi‐criteria analysis: a scientometric analysis

The field of multi‐criteria analysis has known very important developments during the last 20 years, if one considers the very large amount of activities that it has generated and continues to generate (papers in journals, a dedicated journal, books, meetings, applications, …). Even if multi‐criteria analysis has reached some maturity, its future is subject to questions and debate among its researchers: what is the evolution of the field? What is its structure? Is it integrating new topics? In order to answer such questions at least partially, we have studied multi‐criteria analysis literature by means of the method of associated words (scientometric analysis) and the software ‘Leximappe’. All the abstracts of the papers which are relative to multi‐criteria analysis and are included in the bibliographic ABI‐INFORM database from 1985 to 1996 have been analysed. In this paper, we will present some results of this study. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

On the advancement and software support of decision‐making in focused ultrasound therapy

Focused ultrasound therapy (FUS) is a modern and promising way for minimally invasive cancer treatment. Recent advances in treatment technology, bio‐physical models, and numerical simulation methods have given rise to a significant curative potential. However, clinical routine of FUS still features classical planning approaches, which widely fail in exploiting this potential. The structure of FUS planning problems strongly suggests interactive multi‐criteria decision‐making concepts in order to improve treatment quality. This research work introduces an multi‐criteria decision‐making approach to FUS planning and explains how to bridge the conceptual gap between the clinical state of the art and this new planning paradigm.     

Production planning of Pakistan Tobacco Company (PTC) using quantitative and multiple‐criteria decision analysis—A case in‐point

The main purpose of this paper is to improve the production planning of Pakistan Tobacco Company by selecting the most preferred brand and subsequently generating maximum profit from it. As the company produces a variety of products, the technique of multi criteria decision making is used to select the most preferred brand. To generate the maximum output from the preferred brand, different methods of qualitative managerial analysis are used, which include decision analysis to decide “why and where” the manufacturing should be carried out, transportation model to minimize the logistics cost while meeting the demand, and linear programming technique to maximize the profit generated in 2014–2015. The result obtained from analytical hierarchy process shows that the most preferred brand of the company with respect to price, quality, and comfort is John Player Gold Leaf. The decision analysis explains that this brand should be manufactured in the Jhelum factory of the company as it is more cost‐effective to produce and there is a high availability of resources. Transportation model minimizes the logistics cost of this brand from the 2 factories while meeting the demand at each provinces, central warehouse. Linear programming contributes in generating a profit of 32.738 billion PKR with an amount of 0.35 million PKR, which is more than that of the current profit of the company in the year. These results will allow the top management of the company to take corrective decisions well in time, gain a core competency in cost reduction, and make the supply chain process more efficient.     

An evaluation of multi‐criteria methods in integrated assessment of climate policy

Those who conduct integrated assessments (IAs) are aware of the need to explicitly consider multiple criteria and uncertainties when evaluating policies for preventing global warming. MCDM methods are potentially useful for understanding tradeoffs and evaluating risks associated with climate policy alternatives. A difficulty facing potential MCDM users is the wide range of different techniques that have been proposed, each with distinct advantages. Methods differ in terms of validity, ease of use, and appropriateness to the problem. Alternative methods also can yield strikingly different rankings of alternatives. A workshop was held in which climate change experts and policy makers evaluated the usefulness of MCDM for IA. Participants applied several methods in the context of a hypothetical greenhouse gas policy decision. Methods compared include value and utility functions, goal programming, ELECTRE, fuzzy sets, stochastic dominance, min max regret, and several weight selection methods. Ranges, rather than point estimates, were provided for some questions to incorporate imprecision regarding weights. Additionally, several visualization methods for both deterministic and uncertain cases were used and evaluated. Analysis of method results and participant feedback through questionnaires and discussion provide the basis for conclusions regarding the use of MCDM methods for climate change policy and IA analyses. Hypotheses are examined concerning predictive and convergent validity of methods, existence of splitting bias among experts, perceived ability of methods to aid decision‐making, and whether expressing imprecision can change ranking results. Because participants gained from viewing a problem from several perspectives and results from different methods often significantly differed, it appears worthwhile to apply several MCDM methods to increase user confidence and insight. The participants themselves recommended such multimethod approaches for policymaking. Yet they preferred the freedom of unaided decision‐making most of all, challenging the MCDM community to create transparent methods that permit maximum user control. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Determining the implementation order of a general plan by using a multicriteria method

We describe a real-life application of a new multicriteria method in the context of assisting the decision-making for a general plan in the municipality of Kirkkonummi in Uusimaa, Finland. At the time our group started working on the problem, a proposal for an overall plan had already been completed, but the order in which different regional parts of the plan should be implemented needed to be considered based on the environmental impact assessment (EIA) procedure. The EIA procedure generated a large amount of data about the different impacts of the alternatives. For this group decision making problem we developed the SMAA-3 decision support method which does not require any explicit preference information from the decision makers during the procedure. The uncertainty of the basic data is modelled using ELECTRE III-type pseudo-criteria with preference and indifference thresholds. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An application of visual interactive goal programming: a case in vendor selection decisions

This article presents the vendor selection problem of the hydraulic pump division of a US original equipment manufacturing company. The division wants to identify appropriate vendors and allocate purchase orders among them while minimizing product acquisition costs and maximizing total product quality and delivery reliability. Visual interactive goal programming is used as a multi‐criteria decision analysis tool. Interaction with decision makers during the model building and solution process, and implications are discussed. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A Theoretical Framework for Analysing the Notion of Relative Importance of Criteria

Multiple-criteria decision aid almost always requires the use of weights, importance coefficients or even a hierarchy of criteria, veto thresholds, etc. These are importance parameters that are used to differentiate the role devoted to each criterion in the construction of comprehensive preferences. Many researchers have studied the problem of how to assign values to such parameters, but few of them have tried to analyse in detail what underlies the notion of importance of criteria and to give a clear formal definition of it. In this paper our purpose is to define a theoretical framework so as to analyse the notion of the importance of criteria under very general conditions. Within this framework it clearly appears that the importance of criteria is taken into account in very different ways in various aggregation procedures. This framework also allows us to shed new light on fundamental questions such as: Under what conditions is it possible to state that one criterion is more important than another? Are importance parameters of the various aggregation procedures dependent on or independent of the encoding of criteria? What are the links between the two concepts of the importance of criteria and the compensatoriness of preferences? This theoretical framework seems to us sufficiently general to ground further research in order to define theoretically valid elicitation methods for importance parameters.     

MCDM methods in strategic planning of forestry on state‐owned lands in Finland: applications and experiences

The forests in Finland have been under intensive planning for decades. Currently, mathematical programming is widely used in planning of wood production. Today's multi‐functional forestry, however, calls for more flexible decision support methods. MCDM tools have been used in responding to fresh planning challenges. For example, the Finnish Forest and Park Service, entrusted with the care of the vast majority of state‐owned natural resources in Finland, endeavours to produce large‐scale natural resource plans satisfying the needs of both economic, social, and ecological sustainability. Participatory approach is applied in the process. Several forestry applications of MCDM methods, particularly those making use of the AHP or the HIPRE program, have been presented. Also, the outranking methods ELECTRE and PROMETHEE have been tested. Due to the nature of forestry applications, statistical techniques for analysing uncertainties in pairwise comparisons and for utilizing interval judgement data have been developed to improve the usability of the AHP. Recently, a hybrid method called A'WOT, making use of the AHP and SWOT, was also introduced into strategic forest planning. This paper summarizes the experiences gained in applying a MAVT and two outranking methods in connection with a participatory natural resource planning process in Finland. In addition, some results of the method development work related to application needs are briefly presented. The details of the planning cases reviewed here have previously been presented in forestry journals. The purpose of this paper is not only to show how MCDM methods have been applied in forestry, but also to discuss the usability and usefulness of MCDM methods from the viewpoint of supporting forestry decision making—and how they might further be improved. Also, some perspectives for the future development work of MCDM applications in the field of natural resource management are focused on. As a conclusion, the use of more than just one MCDM method in a single planning process is seen usually recommendable. In addition, developing hybrid MCDM methods is regarded as a potential direction for future research. Also, closer co‐operation between method developers and appliers is called for to produce more useful applications. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An Approach for Determining the Mix between Human and Automated Service Providers

With the growing popularity of self‐service technologies (SST), businesses have to determine how to combine traditional human service with SST technologies. These mix problems have not received adequate attention in the research literature. This paper offers a decision model for solving mix problems between human service channels and SSTs. The decision problem cannot be determined as a traditional max or min problem and it is fuzzy. In fuzzy problems, the decision maker (DM) is considered as the focal point with the relevant knowledge and preferences and therefore, the objective is to maximize the DM's preferences. This paper develops a decision support system for eliciting a DM's value function when the service channels are considered to be substitutes, but when the rate of substitution may change and then uses a linear‐fractional model to fit the DM's data and optimize the DM's preferences. A service mix problem for a grocery store with human service providers and SSTs is used to demonstrate how the decision model can be employed to analyze and solve service mix decision making problems. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Invited Review—Survey of Value‐Focused Thinking: Applications,Research Developments and Areas for Future Research

Criteria are the central focus of multi‐criteria decision analysis. Many authors have suggested using our values (or preferences) to define the criteria we use to evaluate alternatives. Value‐focused thinking (VFT) is an important philosophy that advocates a more fundamental view of values in our decision making in our private and professional lives. VFT proponents advocate starting first with our values and then using our values to create decision opportunities, evaluate alternatives and finally develop improved alternatives. It has been 20 years since VFT was first introduced by Ralph Keeney. This paper surveys the VFT literature to provide a comprehensive summary of the significant applications, describe the main research developments and identify areas for future research. We review the scope and magnitude of VFT applications and the key developments in theory since VFT was introduced in 1992 and found 89 papers written in 29 journals from 1992 to 2010. We develop about 20 research questions that include the type of article (application, theory, case study, etc.), the size of the decision space (which, when given, ranged from $200K to billions of dollars), the contribution documented in the article (application benefits) and the research contributions (categorized by preferences, uncertainties and alternatives). After summarizing the answers to these questions, we conclude the paper with suggestions for improving VFT applications and potential future research. We found a large number of significant VFT applications and several useful research contributions. We also found an increasing number of VFT papers written by international authors. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An investigation of the role of scale values in the DS/AHP method of multi‐criteria decision making

DS/AHP is a method of multi‐criteria decision making based on the Dempster–Shafer theory of evidence and the analytic hierarchy process. Central to the utilization of DS/AHP is the composing of preference judgements on identified groups of decision alternatives (DA) across a number of criteria against all the DA present in the problem in question. This paper exposits a series of results whose objectives are to aid in the development of an effective set of preference scale values for use within DS/AHP. These results relate directly to the concomitant level of ignorance (uncertainty) with the judgements made on a single criterion. Two particular directions of investigation are undertaken, firstly in determining the necessary number of scale values available and secondly finding the necessary differences between scale values, dependent on whether an arithmetic or geometric progression is the basis for the scale values. Through an example, the implications and utilization of these results within DS/AHP are illustrated. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Integration of Analytic Hierarchy Process with Regression Analysis to Identify Attractive Locations for Market Expansion

Selection of new geographies in which to expand is a key decision for businesses aspiring to go beyond the opportunities in the existing markets. The conventional approaches of market selection can only provide a set of systematic steps for problem solving without considering the relationships between the decision factors. Decision models based on statistical techniques are able to examine the relationship between decision factors but are unable to effectively assist decision makers in identifying the most promising market, particularly in terms of prioritizing across decision factors. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a commonly used approach for choosing alternatives by prioritizing across multiple decision factors. The typical AHP modelling requires knowledge of criteria and/or alternatives along with their relative weights, generally elicited from field experts. Quite often, firms encounter situations where decision makers are aware of only the overall objective and a set of earmarked geographies for setting up market locations while being relatively unaware of decision criteria and relative weights. This precludes using AHP to identify promising market locations. This paper conceptualizes a market selection decision model that integrates AHP with statistical modelling techniques to identify the attractive market locations for the purpose of expansion. The model first uses principal component analysis and multiple regression to determine significant decision criteria and their weights. Thereafter, it applies AHP to prioritize the market locations across the decision criteria. This integrative approach is illustrated for identifying the attractive locations in rural markets for a steel firm in India. The major advantage of this approach is that unlike the existing models, it works in situations when firms have not enough knowledge about factors for evaluating alternative market locations. Another key advantage of the proposed model is that of economizing resources for data collection on variables representing decision factors. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Dynamic decision making: a comparison of approaches

This paper is concerned with a specific type of problem, namely dynamic decisions, for which most techniques fail to provide adequate solutions. Here, we present two of the most promising optimization techniques, partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDP) and dynamic decision networks (DDN), while arguing which is the most suitable for this problem domain. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reduction of pairwise comparisons in decision making via a duality approach

Although pairwise comparisons have been seen by many as an effective and intuitive way for eliciting qualitative data for multi‐criteria decision making problems, a major drawback is that the number of the required comparisons increases quadratically with the number of the entities to be compared. Thus, often even data for medium size decision problems may be impractical to be elicited via pairwise comparisons. The more the comparisons are, the higher is the likelihood that the decision maker will introduce erroneous data. This paper introduces a dual formulation to a given multi‐criteria decision making problem, which can significantly alleviate the previous problems. Some theoretical results establish that this is possible when the number of alternatives is greater than the number of decision criteria plus one. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The contributions of multi‐criteria decision making to the development of decision support systems subspecialties: an empirical investigation

This study focuses on examining the structure of decision support systems (DSS) research, with a particular emphasis on assessing the contributions of multi‐criteria decision making (MCDM) to the development of each of the DSS subspecialty areas. This study traces how concepts and findings by researchers in the MCDM area have been picked up by DSS researchers to be applied, extended and refined in the development of DSS research subspecialties. In doing so, factor analysis is applied to an author cocitation frequency matrix derived from a large database file of comprehensive DSS literature. This study concludes that researchers in the MCDM area have made crucial contributions to the development of DSS research subspecialties. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.