A micro-level simulation for the prediction of intention and behavior

In this contribution we aim at anchoring Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) simulations in actual models of human psychology. More specifically, we apply unidirectional ABM to social psychological models using low level agents (i.e., intra-individual) to examine whether they generate better predictions, in comparison to standard statistical approaches, concerning the intentions of performing a behavior and the behavior. Moreover, this contribution tests to what extent the predictive validity of models of attitude such as the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) or Model of Goal-directed Behavior (MGB) depends on the assumption that peoples’ decisions and actions are purely rational. Simulations were therefore run by considering different deviations from rationality of the agents with a trembling hand method. Two data sets concerning respectively the consumption of soft drinks and physical activity were used. Three key findings emerged from the simulations. First, compared to standard statistical approach the agent-based simulation generally improves the prediction of behavior from intention. Second, the improvement in prediction is inversely proportional to the complexity of the underlying theoretical model. Finally, the introduction of varying degrees of deviation from rationality in agents’ behavior can lead to an improvement in the goodness of fit of the simulations. By demonstrating the potential of ABM as a complementary perspective to evaluating social psychological models, this contribution underlines the necessity of better defining agents in terms of psychological processes before examining higher levels such as the interactions between individuals.     

Exploratory Approaches for Studying Social Interactions,Dynamics, and Multivariate Processes in Psychological Science

In this article, I argue for the need of more use of exploratory techniques to identify dynamics in social interactions. I describe several approaches as they are applied to multivariate time series data. The first approach is an algorithm that searches for periods of variability and stability at the individual level as well as for patterns of overlap in such periods between the two individuals in a couple. These patterns describe the daily ups and downs in the couples' affect and are predictive of the state of the couples 1 to 2 years later. The second approach, hierarchical segmentation, is based on the idea of partitioning the time series in segments with distinct data patterns. In the case of data from dyads, as in the illustration, the patterns can be compared in terms of coherence between the 2 individuals in the dyad. The third approach is based on network analysis, and its use is shown as a method to examine data transitions at the individual and dyadic level as well as system-wide coherence in multivariate systems. For each approach, I provide examples of its use with empirical data. The article ends with general guidelines and recommendations for researchers interested in using exploratory methods as a way to examine psychological processes.     

Traps for Sacrifice: Bateson's Schizophrenic and Girard's Scapegoat

John Perceval (1803–1876), who suffered from schizophrenia, published two books on his experience, in 1836 and 1840. More than a century later, the anthropologist Gregory Bateson discovered in Perceval's memoirs a lucid anticipation of his own theories on schizophrenia. To Bateson, Perceval describes the interactive patterns between himself, his family, and the hospital psychiatrists, as examples of “double bind” interactions, in which he played the role of a “sacrificial victim.” The article underlines the strong convergence between Bateson's theory of schizophrenia and René Girard's theory of the scapegoat. In the anthropological theory of Girard, the sacrificial ceremonies are the main way of constructing social order. In that perspective, the schizophenic can be considered as a particular example of a scapegoat, that is, as an important figure in social life, and not as a mere phenomenon of psychopathology. This theoretical convergence is remarkable, in particular, because both anthropologists explain the sacrificial processes through a theory of social life based on the idea that the main unit of analysis is not the individual, but the interactive dynamic as a whole: patterns of relationships, to Bateson; reciprocal imitation (mymesis), to Girard.     

Buffer effects and threshold effects: An alternative interpretation of nonlinearities in the relationship between social support,stress, and depression

The common interpretation of statistical interactions of global measures of social support and stress in their effects on depression (the "buffer effect" of social support) as reflecting interactive processes within individuals was examined. It was argued that its adequacy depends on incorrect assumptions about the distribution of depressive symptoms within individuals over time and/or different levels of psychosocial adversity. With hypothetical data sets generated under the assumption of a threshold effect in the development of depression and of additive, rather than interactive, effects of social support and stress, it was demonstrated that spurious "buffer effects" of social support can appear in analyses of cross-sectional data. Methodological and substantive implications are discussed, and strategies for study design and data analysis are proposed that allow to assess whether empirical deviations from linearity are more adequately interpreted as a buffer or as a threshold effect.     

Finding "meaning" in psychology: a lay theories approach to self-regulation, social perception, and social development

Much of psychology focuses on universal principles of thought and action. Although an extremely productive pursuit, this approach, by describing only the "average person," risks describing no one in particular. This article discusses an alternate approach that complements interests in universal principles with analyses of the unique psychological meaning that individuals find in their experiences and interactions. Rooted in research on social cognition, this approach examines how people's lay theories about the stability or malleability of human attributes alter the meaning they give to basic psychological processes such as self-regulation and social perception. Following a review of research on this lay theories perspective in the field of social psychology, the implications of analyzing psychological meaning for other fields such as developmental, cultural, and personality psychology are discussed.     

Analysis of behavioral durations in observational studies of social interaction

Many social science disciplines investigate dyadic or triadic social interaction by recording the interactive behaviors as qualitative codes. This article introduces a method for analyzing and interpreting variation in the durations of coded behaviors obtained during such interactions. Using survival analysis and event history analysis as its basis, this article discusses the use of regression techniques that enable the researcher to assess how the distributions of behavioral durations depend on covariate observations. An analysis of conflicts between mothers and children illustrates the discussion, using the proportional hazards model. Behavioral and attitudinal differences among the mother-son dyad predicted variation in the durations of mothers' negative statements to their sons.     

Alignment in social interactions

According to the prevailing paradigm in social-cognitive neuroscience, the mental states of individuals become shared when they adapt to each other in the pursuit of a shared goal. We challenge this view by proposing an alternative approach to the cognitive foundations of social interactions. The central claim of this paper is that social cognition concerns the graded and dynamic process of alignment of individual minds, even in the absence of a shared goal. When individuals reciprocally exchange information about each other's minds processes of alignment unfold over time and across space, creating a social interaction. Not all cases of joint action involve such reciprocal exchange of information. To understand the nature of social interactions, then, we propose that attention should be focused on the manner in which people align words and thoughts, bodily postures and movements, in order to take one another into account and to make full use of socially relevant information.     

Work-related stress, the blind men and the elephant

Progress in understanding and developing effective responses to work-related stress has been elusive, patchy, and inconsistent. The reasons for this are reviewed, and the inadequacy of traditional stress management techniques and organisational interventions to tackle it are examined. Although necessary, clinical responses to distressed individuals and organisations in isolation can never deal effectively with the overall increasing levels of stress found. Neither can attempts to 'fit' individuals to cope with ever more demanding work patterns and practices. The reviewed evidence suggests that an integrated approach that acknowledges how social, economic, political, and organisational factors impact on individual needs and values is needed. This integrated approach is described, with its required input from communities and politicians, as well as occupational health specialists. The article concludes that work-related stress is the result of complex psychosocial interactions that simply cannot be effectively understood or treated by any one professional group or theoretical approach.     

Friendship Dissolution Within Social Networks Modeled Through Multilevel Event History Analysis

A social network perspective can bring important insight into the processes that shape human behavior. Longitudinal social network data, measuring relations between individuals over time, has become increasingly common—as have the methods available to analyze such data. A friendship duration model utilizing discrete-time multilevel survival analysis with a multiple membership random effect structure is developed and applied here to study the processes leading to undirected friendship dissolution within a larger social network. While the modeling framework is introduced in terms of understanding friendship dissolution, it can be used to understand microlevel dynamics of a social network more generally. These models can be fit with standard generalized linear mixed-model software, after transforming the data to a pair-period data set. An empirical example highlights how the model can be applied to understand the processes leading to friendship dissolution between high school students, and a simulation study is used to test the use of the modeling framework under representative conditions that would be found in social network data. Advantages of the modeling framework are highlighted, and potential limitations and future directions are discussed.     

Researching a Local Heroin Market as a Complex Adaptive System

This project applies agent-based modeling (ABM) techniques to better understand the operation, organization, and structure of a local heroin market. The simulation detailed was developed using data from an 18-month ethnographic case study. The original research, collected in Denver, CO during the 1990s, represents the historic account of users and dealers who operated in the Larimer area heroin market. Working together, the authors studied the behaviors of customers, private dealers, street-sellers, brokers, and the police, reflecting the core elements pertaining to how the market operated. After evaluating the logical consistency between the data and agent behaviors, simulations scaled-up interactions to observe their aggregated outcomes. While the concept and findings from this study remain experimental, these methods represent a novel way in which to understand illicit drug markets and the dynamic adaptations and outcomes they generate. Extensions of this research perspective, as well as its strengths and limitations, are discussed.     

信任还是设防？互动博弈中社会善念对合作行为的促进效应

社会善念是个体在人际互动中充满善意地关注、尊重并保护他人选择的需要和权利的行为,通过实施社会善念有助于提升他人的合作行为。为检验这一假设,本实验设置了“施—受”双方的互动博弈情境,采用“物品选择游戏”操纵实施者的社会善念水平,分别利用信任博弈和公共物品游戏测查接受者在互动过程中的信任水平和合作行为。结果发现：相比于低社会善念组,被试在高社会善念组中表现出更高的信任水平和合作行为。进一步路径分析也发现,信任在感知社会善念与合作行为间发挥着部分中介作用。由此可见,社会善念行为的实施为互动双方建立信任关系提供了重要线索,降低了人们时时“设防”的监控动机,使合作带来的利益双赢成为可能。     

Social Context in HCl: A New Framework for Mental Models,Cooperation, and Communication

This article considers current research in computer-supported cooperative work (CSCW), computer-mediated communication (CMC), and distributed artificial intelligence (DAl). These areas need an articulated model of social contexts to bridge the persisting gap between social and technological dimensions in computer system design and use. A conceptual model of context is presented to account for both cooperation-conflict and communication-negotiation processes. The model conceives of contexts as including not only physical objects and other people but also social norms which influence both individuals and organizations. It assumes that computer system use occurs in social scenarios in which the features cannot be reduced to any type of input or data in the world that designers and users can process along with other information coming from the current task. The model is built on three levels: from social contexts as normative order (Level 1), to specific and intrinsically complex situations (Level 2), to person-computer interactions for the performance of particular tasks (Level 3). The model has three main implications. First, Human-Computer Interaction (HCl) studies—especially scenario-based design—may profit from a fresh topdown approach to designers' and users' mental models taking into account normative social processes which have been neglected in previous research. Second, CSCW may realize how deeply discrepant perspectives affect multi-agent environments and why in real working life negotiation is intertwined with cooperation. Designers may use this insight to design systems allowing more place for negotiation among actors. Third, we should dismiss the view that CMC lacks adequate social cues and fosters impulsive behavior. Cognitive processes such as categorization, stereotype construction, and social identification can make electronic environments even more strongly sensible to social norms than face-to-face communication. Context, according to our model, is not restricted to the physical copresence of other people but consists mainly of processes providing situations with socially recognizable meaning.     

Cultural evolution: interpersonal influence, issue importance, and the development of shared attitudes in college residence halls

This article investigates cultural evolution in four college residence halls. Up to four attitude surveys were completed by 1,252 participants in a semester. Participants' attitudes became more similar to those living closest to them over time as a result of localized interpersonal influence processes. Correlations between attitudes also increased with time as these cultural attributes grew increasingly interdependent. These basic findings support the predictions of dynamic social impact theory. However, these effects were stronger for more important issues even when controlling for discussion. These findings are likely the result of (a) individual-level selective attention to personally important information, (b) greater attitude-behavior consistency for important issues, and/or (c) nonlinear attitude change processes for important issues as suggested by the catastrophe theory of attitudes. These results suggest that intrapsychic processes as well as interpersonal processes contribute to cultural evolution.     

A method in modeling interactive pedestrian crossing and driver yielding decisions during their interactions at intersections

Investigating pedestrian crossing and driver yielding decisions should be an important focus considering the high risks of pedestrians in exposed to motorized traffic. Limitations, however, exist in previous studies – variables considered previously have been limited; how their behavior affect each other (defined as interactive impacts) were not sufficiently considered. This paper aims to provide a methodological approach for pedestrian crossing and driver yielding decisions during their interactions, considering of different variable types including interactive impact variables, traffic condition variables, road design variables, and environment variables. A Distance-Velocity (DV) framework proposed in an earlier study is introduced for definitions and concepts in studying pedestrian-vehicle interactions. Logistic regression, support vector machines, neural networks and random forests, are introduced as candidate models. A case study involving six crosswalk locations is conducted, focusing on interactions between pedestrians and right-turn vehicles. The proposed methodological approach is applied, with the performance of the four machine learning methods compared in terms of model generalization and confusion matrix. The model with the best performance is further compared to the typical gap-based model. Results show that random forest and logistic regression models performed the best in modeling pedestrian crossing and driver yielding decisions respective, in terms of model generalization. Besides, the DV-based modeling method (average accuracy of over 90% for pedestrians and 80% for drivers) outperformed the traditional gap-based method in all test seeds. As a key finding, interactive impacts from each other (the pedestrian and the driver) act as a key contributing variable on their decisions.     

Functional magnetic resonance imaging responses relate to differences in real-world social experience

Although neuroimaging techniques have proven powerful in assessing neural responses, little is known about whether scanner-based neural activity relates to real-world psychological experience. A joint functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI)/experience-sampling study investigated whether individual differences in neurocognitive reactivity to scanner-based social rejection related to: (a) moment-to-moment feelings of social rejection during real-world social interactions ("momentary social distress") and (b) the extent to which these momentary feelings corresponded with end-of-day global assessments of social disconnection ("end-of-day social disconnection"). Individuals who showed greater activity in regions associated with affective and pain processing (dorsal anterior cingulate cortex, amygdala, periaqueductal gray) during scanner-based social rejection reported feeling greater momentary social distress during their daily social interactions. In contrast, individuals who showed greater activity in regions associated with memory and self-referential memory encoding (hippocampus, medial prefrontal cortex) showed a stronger correspondence between momentary social distress and end-of-day social disconnection, such that greater momentary social distress was associated with greater end-of-day social disconnection. These findings complement previous work showing a dissociation between momentary and retrospective reports of affect and suggest that these processes rely on dissociable neural systems.     

On the outside looking in: loneliness and social monitoring

The skill-deficit view of loneliness posits that unskilled social interactions block lonely individuals from social inclusion. The current studies examine loneliness in relation to social attention and perception processes thought to be important for socially skilled behavior. Two studies investigate the association between social monitoring (attention to social information and cues) and self-reported loneliness and number of close social ties. In Study 1, higher levels of loneliness are related to increased rather than decreased incidental social memory. In Study 2, individuals with fewer reported friends show heightened decoding of social cues in faces and voices. Results of these studies suggest that the attentional and perceptual building blocks of socially skilled behavior remain intact, and perhaps enhanced, in lonely individuals. Implications for recent models of belonging regulation and theories of loneliness are discussed.     

fNIRS在自闭症脑功能研究中的应用与展望

社会交往能力是人类生存的基本技能。社交能力的缺失会导致严重的行为障碍和精神疾病,如自闭症。由于自闭症儿童的特殊性,绝大多数的自闭症脑成像研究多集中在年龄较大的高功能自闭症儿童在静息态或简单的任务态下的脑激活模式或功能连接状态。自闭症的核心症状—社会交往障碍和语言交流障碍却较少有研究触及。近年来,近红外光学脑功能成像技术的发展为我们在真实的交流和互动中研究自闭症儿童的神经病理机制提供了新的工具和机遇。     

Social Comparisons on Subjective Well-Being: The Role of Social and Cultural Capital

Using the German Socio-Economic Panel, we analyze the relevance of modeling social comparisons to determine their effect on subjective well-being. We find that it is important to model social comparisons in such a way that captures the sensitivity of individuals to proximity. The impact on subjective well-being differs depending on the manner in which proximity is modeled, revealing that the underlying processes in comparisons are not homogenous along the income distribution. Additionally, our results point out that social and cultural capital modify the effect of social comparisons and such modification depends on the sensitivity to proximity.     

The Study of Socioethical Issues in Systems Biology

Systems biology is the rapidly growing and heavily funded successor science to genomics. Its mission is to integrate extensive bodies of molecular data into a detailed mathematical understanding of all life processes, with an ultimate view to their prediction and control. Despite its high profile and widespread practice, there has so far been almost no bioethical attention paid to systems biology and its potential social consequences. We outline some of systems biology's most important socioethical issues by contrasting the concept of systems as dynamic processes against the common static interpretation of genomes. New issues arise around systems biology's capacities for in silico testing, changing cultural understandings of life, synthetic biology, and commercialization. We advocate an interdisciplinary and interactive approach that integrates social and philosophical analysis and engages closely with the science. Overall, we argue that systems biology socioethics could stimulate new ways of thinking about socioethical studies of life sciences.