Maximum likelihood estimation of multivariate polyserial and polychoric correlation coefficients

The method of finding the maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters in a multivariate normal model with some of the component variables observable only in polytomous form is developed. The main stratagem used is a reparameterization which converts the corresponding log likelihood function to an easily handled one. The maximum likelihood estimates are found by a Fletcher-Powell algorithm, and their standard error estimates are obtained from the information matrix. When the dimension of the random vector observable only in polytomous form is large, obtaining the maximum likelihood estimates is computationally rather labor expensive. Therefore, a more efficient method, the partition maximum likelihood method, is proposed. These estimation methods are demonstrated by real and simulated data, and are compared by means of a simulation study.     

A comparison of methods for estimating quadratic effects in nonlinear structural equation models

Two Monte Carlo simulations were performed to compare methods for estimating and testing hypotheses of quadratic effects in latent variable regression models. The methods considered in the current study were (a) a 2-stage moderated regression approach using latent variable scores, (b) an unconstrained product indicator approach, (c) a latent moderated structural equation method, (d) a fully Bayesian approach, and (e) marginal maximum likelihood estimation. Of the 5 estimation methods, it was found that overall the methods based on maximum likelihood estimation and the Bayesian approach performed best in terms of bias, root-mean-square error, standard error ratios, power, and Type I error control, although key differences were observed. Similarities as well as disparities among methods are highlight and general recommendations articulated. As a point of comparison, all 5 approaches were fit to a reparameterized version of the latent quadratic model to educational reading data.     

A study of algorithms for covariance structure analysis with specific comparisons using factor analysis

Several algorithms for covariance structure analysis are considered in addition to the Fletcher-Powell algorithm. These include the Gauss-Newton, Newton-Raphson, Fisher Scoring, and Fletcher-Reeves algorithms. Two methods of estimation are considered, maximum likelihood and weighted least squares. It is shown that the Gauss-Newton algorithm which in standard form produces weighted least squares estimates can, in iteratively reweighted form, produce maximum likelihood estimates as well. Previously unavailable standard error estimates to be used in conjunction with the Fletcher-Reeves algorithm are derived. Finally all the algorithms are applied to a number of maximum likelihood and weighted least squares factor analysis problems to compare the estimates and the standard errors produced. The algorithms appear to give satisfactory estimates but there are serious discrepancies in the standard errors. Because it is robust to poor starting values, converges rapidly and conveniently produces consistent standard errors for both maximum likelihood and weighted least squares problems, the Gauss-Newton algorithm represents an attractive alternative for at least some covariance structure analyses.Work by the first author has been supported in part by Grant No. Da01070 from the U. S. Public Health Service. Work by the second author has been supported in part by Grant No. MCS 77-02121 from the National Science Foundation.     

Multilevel SEM with random slopes in discrete data using the pairwise maximum likelihood

Pairwise maximum likelihood (PML) estimation is a promising method for multilevel models with discrete responses. Multilevel models take into account that units within a cluster tend to be more alike than units from different clusters. The pairwise likelihood is then obtained as the product of bivariate likelihoods for all within-cluster pairs of units and items. In this study, we investigate the PML estimation method with computationally intensive multilevel random intercept and random slope structural equation models (SEM) in discrete data. In pursuing this, we first reconsidered the general ‘wide format’ (WF) approach for SEM models and then extend the WF approach with random slopes. In a small simulation study we the determine accuracy and efficiency of the PML estimation method by varying the sample size (250, 500, 1000, 2000), response scales (two-point, four-point), and data-generating model (mediation model with three random slopes, factor model with one and two random slopes). Overall, results show that the PML estimation method is capable of estimating computationally intensive random intercept and random slopes multilevel models in the SEM framework with discrete data and many (six or more) latent variables with satisfactory accuracy and efficiency. However, the condition with 250 clusters combined with a two-point response scale shows more bias.     

Estimation Methods for Mixed Logistic Models with Few Clusters

For mixed models generally, it is well known that modeling data with few clusters will result in biased estimates, particularly of the variance components and fixed effect standard errors. In linear mixed models, small sample bias is typically addressed through restricted maximum likelihood estimation (REML) and a Kenward-Roger correction. Yet with binary outcomes, there is no direct analog of either procedure. With a larger number of clusters, estimation methods for binary outcomes that approximate the likelihood to circumvent the lack of a closed form solution such as adaptive Gaussian quadrature and the Laplace approximation have been shown to yield less-biased estimates than linearization estimation methods that instead linearly approximate the model. However, adaptive Gaussian quadrature and the Laplace approximation are approximating the full likelihood rather than the restricted likelihood; the full likelihood is known to yield biased estimates with few clusters. On the other hand, linearization methods linearly approximate the model, which allows for restricted maximum likelihood and the Kenward-Roger correction to be applied. Thus, the following question arises: Which is preferable, a better approximation of a biased function or a worse approximation of an unbiased function? We address this question with a simulation and an illustrative empirical analysis.     

A Newton-Raphson algorithm for maximum likelihood factor analysis

This paper demonstrates the feasibility of using a Newton-Raphson algorithm to solve the likelihood equations which arise in maximum likelihood factor analysis. The algorithm leads to clean easily identifiable convergence and provides a means of verifying that the solution obtained is at least a local maximum of the likelihood function. It is shown that a popular iteration algorithm is numerically unstable under conditions which are encountered in practice and that, as a result, inaccurate solutions have been presented in the literature. The key result is a computationally feasible formula for the second differential of a partially maximized form of the likelihood function. In addition to implementing the Newton-Raphson algorithm, this formula provides a means for estimating the asymptotic variances and covariances of the maximum likelihood estimators. This research was supported by the Air Force Office of Scientific Research, Grant No. AF-AFOSR-4.59-66 and by National Institutes of Health, Grant No. FR-3.     

Bayesian Modal Estimation for the One-Parameter Logistic Ability-Based Guessing (1PL-AG) Model

The calibration of the one-parameter logistic ability-based guessing (1PL-AG) model in item response theory (IRT) with a modest sample size remains a challenge for its implausible estimates and difficulty in obtaining standard errors of estimates. This article proposes an alternative Bayesian modal estimation (BME) method, the Bayesian Expectation-Maximization-Maximization (BEMM) method, which is developed by combining an augmented variable formulation of the 1PL-AG model and a mixture model conceptualization of the three-parameter logistic model (3PLM). By comparing with marginal maximum likelihood estimation (MMLE) and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) in JAGS, the simulation shows that BEMM can produce stable and accurate estimates in the modest sample size. A real data example and the MATLAB codes of BEMM are also provided.     

A Two-Tier Full-Information Item Factor Analysis Model with Applications

Motivated by Gibbons et al.’s (Appl. Psychol. Meas. 31:4–19, 2007) full-information maximum marginal likelihood item bifactor analysis for polytomous data, and Rijmen, Vansteelandt, and De Boeck’s (Psychometrika 73:167–182, 2008) work on constructing computationally efficient estimation algorithms for latent variable models, a two-tier item factor analysis model is developed in this research. The modeling framework subsumes standard multidimensional IRT models, bifactor IRT models, and testlet response theory models as special cases. Features of the model lead to a reduction in the dimensionality of the latent variable space, and consequently significant computational savings. An EM algorithm for full-information maximum marginal likelihood estimation is developed. Simulations and real data demonstrations confirm the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed methods. Three real data sets from a large-scale educational assessment, a longitudinal public health survey, and a scale development study measuring patient reported quality of life outcomes are analyzed as illustrations of the model’s broad range of applicability.     

Maximum likelihood estimation for Luce's choice model

A terminology for general choice models based on the choice axiom is given. It applies to all kinds of choice experiments, such as confusion choice experiments, paired comparisons, triadic comparisons, directional rankings, scores on binary test items, and others. Maximum likelihood estimation for such general choice models is considered. Conditions for the uniqueness of maximum likelihood estimates are given, and it is shown that the estimates can be derived by iterative proportional fitting. This offers the opportunity of a general test of the choice axiom for all kinds of choice experiments using the likelihood ratio. The estimation and testing procedure is applied to data from a form recognition experiment, reported by W. A. Wagenaar (Nederlands Tijdschrift voor de Psychologie, 1968, 23, 96–108).     

EM algorithms for ML factor analysis

The details of EM algorithms for maximum likelihood factor analysis are presented for both the exploratory and confirmatory models. The algorithm is essentially the same for both cases and involves only simple least squares regression operations; the largest matrix inversion required is for aq ×q symmetric matrix whereq is the matrix of factors. The example that is used demonstrates that the likelihood for the factor analysis model may have multiple modes that are not simply rotations of each other; such behavior should concern users of maximum likelihood factor analysis and certainly should cast doubt on the general utility of second derivatives of the log likelihood as measures of precision of estimation.     

Exact tests,confidence regions and estimates

This paper proposes a uniform method for constructing tests, confidence regions and point estimates which is called exact since it reduces to Fisher's so-called exact test in the case of the hypothesis of independence in a 2 × 2 contingency table. All the wellknown standard tests based on exact sampling distributions are instances of the exact test in its general form. The likelihood ratio and x₂ tests as well as the maximum likelihood estimate appears as asymptotic approximations to the corresponding exact procedures.     

Problems with EM algorithms for ML factor analysis

Rubin and Thayer recently presented equations to implement maximum likelihood (ML) estimation in factor analysis via the EM algorithm. They present an example to demonstrate the efficacy of the algorithm, and propose that their recovery of multiple local maxima of the ML function “certainly should cast doubt on the general utility of second derivatives of the log likelihood as measures of precision of estimation.” It is shown here, in contrast, that these second derivatives verify that Rubin and Thayer did not find multiple local maxima as claimed. The only known maximum remains the one found by Jöreskog over a decade earlier. The standard errors obtained from the second derivatives and the Fisher information matrix thus remain appropriate where ML assumptions are met. The advantages of the EM algorithm over other algorithms for ML factor analysis remain to be demonstrated.     

A three-stage estimation procedure for structural equation models with polytomous variables

This paper is concerned with the analysis of structural equation models with polytomous variables. A computationally efficient three-stage estimator of the thresholds and the covariance structure parameters, based on partition maximum likelihood and generalized least squares estimation, is proposed. An example is presented to illustrate the method.This research was supported in part by a research grant DA01070 from the U.S. Public Health Service. The production assistance of Julie Speckart is gratefully acknowledged.     

On structural equation modeling with data that are not missing completely at random

A general latent variable model is given which includes the specification of a missing data mechanism. This framework allows for an elucidating discussion of existing general multivariate theory bearing on maximum likelihood estimation with missing data. Here, missing completely at random is not a prerequisite for unbiased estimation in large samples, as when using the traditional listwise or pairwise present data approaches. The theory is connected with old and new results in the area of selection and factorial invariance. It is pointed out that in many applications, maximum likelihood estimation with missing data may be carried out by existing structural equation modeling software, such as LISREL and LISCOMP. Several sets of artifical data are generated within the general model framework. The proposed estimator is compared to the two traditional ones and found superior.The research of the first author was supported by grant No. SES-8312583 from the National Science Foundation and by a Spencer Foundation grant. We wish to thank Chuen-Rong Chan for drawing the path diagram.     

Quantile maximum likelihood estimation of response time distributions

Queen’s University, Kingston, Ontario, Canada We introduce and evaluate via a Monte Carlo study a robust new estimation technique that fits distribution functions to grouped response time (RT) data, where the grouping is determined by sample quantiles. The new estimator, quantile maximum likelihood (QML), is more efficient and less biased than the best alternative estimation technique when fitting the commonly used ex-Gaussian distribution. Limitations of the Monte Carlo results are discussed and guidance provided for the practical application of the new technique. Because QML estimation can be computationally costly, we make fast open source code for fitting available that can be easily modified     

A general class of latent variable models for ordinal manifest variables with covariate effects on the manifest and latent variables

Previous work on a general class of multidimensional latent variable models for analysing ordinal manifest variables is extended here to allow for direct covariate effects on the manifest ordinal variables and covariate effects on the latent variables. A full maximum likelihood estimation method is used to estimate all the model parameters simultaneously. Goodness‐of‐fit statistics and standard errors are discussed. Two examples from the 1996 British Social Attitudes Survey are used to illustrate the methodology.     

Factorial invariance in multilevel confirmatory factor analysis

This paper presents a procedure to test factorial invariance in multilevel confirmatory factor analysis. When the group membership is at level 2, multilevel factorial invariance can be tested by a simple extension of the standard procedure. However level‐1 group membership raises problems which cannot be appropriately handled by the standard procedure, because the dependency between members of different level‐1 groups is not appropriately taken into account. The procedure presented in this article provides a solution to this problem. This paper also shows Muthén's maximum likelihood (MUML) estimation for testing multilevel factorial invariance across level‐1 groups as a viable alternative to maximum likelihood estimation. Testing multilevel factorial invariance across level‐2 groups and testing multilevel factorial invariance across level‐1 groups are illustrated using empirical examples. SAS macro and Mplus syntax are provided.     

Analysis of Interactions and Nonlinear Effects with Missing Data: A Factored Regression Modeling Approach Using Maximum Likelihood Estimation

Abstract

When estimating multiple regression models with incomplete predictor variables, it is necessary to specify a joint distribution for the predictor variables. A convenient assumption is that this distribution is a multivariate normal distribution, which is also the default in many statistical software packages. This distribution will in general be misspecified if predictors with missing data have nonlinear effects (e.g., x²) or are included in interaction terms (e.g., x·z). In the present article, we introduce a factored regression modeling approach for estimating regression models with missing data that is based on maximum likelihood estimation. In this approach, the model likelihood is factorized into a part that is due to the model of interest and a part that is due to the model for the incomplete predictors. In three simulation studies, we showed that the factored regression modeling approach produced valid estimates of interaction and nonlinear effects in regression models with missing values on categorical or continuous predictor variables under a broad range of conditions. We developed the R package mdmb, which facilitates a user-friendly application of the factored regression modeling approach, and present a real-data example that illustrates the flexibility of the software.     

Random effects and extended generalized partial credit models

In this paper it is shown that under the random effects generalized partial credit model for the measurement of a single latent variable by a set of polytomously scored items, the joint marginal probability distribution of the item scores has a closed-form expression in terms of item category location parameters, parameters that characterize the distribution of the latent variable in the subpopulation of examinees with a zero score on all items, and item-scaling parameters. Due to this closed-form expression, all parameters of the random effects generalized partial credit model can be estimated using marginal maximum likelihood estimation without assuming a particular distribution of the latent variable in the population of examinees and without using numerical integration. Also due to this closed-form expression, new special cases of the random effects generalized partial credit model can be identified. In addition to these new special cases, a slightly more general model than the random effects generalized partial credit model is presented. This slightly more general model is called the extended generalized partial credit model. Attention is paid to maximum likelihood estimation of the parameters of the extended generalized partial credit model and to assessing the goodness of fit of the model using generalized likelihood ratio tests. Attention is also paid to person parameter estimation under the random effects generalized partial credit model. It is shown that expected a posteriori estimates can be obtained for all possible score patterns. A simulation study is carried out to show the usefulness of the proposed models compared to the standard models that assume normality of the latent variable in the population of examinees. In an empirical example, some of the procedures proposed are demonstrated.     

A generalized estimating equations approach to mixed‐effects ordinal probit models

Clustered ordinal responses, which are commonplace in behavioural and educational research, are often analysed using mixed‐effects ordinal probit models. Likelihood‐based inference for these models can be computationally burdensome, and may compromise the consistency of estimators if the model is misspecified. We propose an alternative inferential approach based on generalized estimating equations. We show that systems of estimating equations can be specified for mixed‐effects ordinal probit models that avoid the potentially heavy computational demands of maximum likelihood estimation, and can also provide inferences that are robust with respect to some forms of model misspecification—particularly serial effects in longitudinal data.