Languages and designs for probability judgment

Theories of subjective probability are viewed as formal languages for analyzing evidence and expressing degrees of belief. This article focuses on two probability langauges, the Bayesian language and the language of belief functions (Shafer, 1976). We describe and compare the semantics (i.e., the meaning of the scale) and the syntax (i.e., the formal calculus) of these languages. We also investigate some of the designs for probability judgment afforded by the two languages.     

An experimental analysis of impulsivity and impulse control in humans

In choosing between small, immediate and large, delayed reward, an organism behaves impulsively if it chooses the small reward and shows impulse control if it chooses the large reward. Work with nonhumans suggests that impulsivity and impulse control may be derived from gradients of delayed reinforcement. A model developed by Ainslie and by Rachlin suggests that preference for the rewards should be a function of when the choice is made: small reward with no delay may be preferred to large reward with delay X, but adding delay T to both alternatives should shift preference to the large reward. Three experiments investigated this preference reversal in humans, using termination of 90 dba white noise as the reinforcing event. Experiment 1 showed that under some instructional conditions 90-sec noise off with no delay was preferred over 120-sec noise off after a 60-sec delay, but that preference shifted to the large reward when a 15-sec delay (T) was added to both alternatives. Experiment 2 replicated this preference reversal under two conditions of large, delayed reward, and with three rather than two values of T. Experiment 3 confirmed this effect of T and showed that some humans committed themselves to the large reward when commitment could be made some time before presentation of the reward alternatives. These data support the Ainslie-Rachlin model and extend it to human choice behavior.     

The development of sex typing: Themes from recent research

A conceptual framework for organizing the constructs and content areas included in research on sex typing is presented in this review of recent research on the development of sex typing. Two major themes are discussed. First, sex-typed play activities and interests emerge clearly in the first few years of life. Both play activities and peer preferences are sex typed earlier and more definitely than are personality traits and social behaviors such as aggression or dependency. It is suggested that researchers have underemphasized the importance of interests, activities, and peer associations while overemphasizing personality attributes as the core of sex typing. The second theme is that cognitions and concepts about sex typing are important in the acquisition of gender typing, but they are not sufficient by themselves for understanding the process by which sex-typed behavior is acquired. Children's sex-role concepts are sometimes related to their behavioral preferences, but other factors are also important influences on behavior.     

The effectiveness of attentional diversion and situation redefinition for reducing stress due to a nonambiguous Threat

After receiving a sample shock, subjects in a Threat Condition were told that they would receive additional painful shocks while subjects in a Nonthreat Condition were not threatened with additional shocks. Subjects in an Attentional Diversion Condition were then instructed to read and think about an amusing story, subjects in a Situation Redefinition Condition were instructed to write down reasons why they should not be afraid in this situation, and subjects in a Control Condition were not given any instructions for coping with stress. (Coping Conditions were factorially crossed with Threat Conditions and 192 subjects were employed.) Physiological measures (pulse rate, finger pulse volume, skin resistance) indicated that unlike the results of previous research, attentional diversion was effective in reducing stress but situation redefinition was not. Discussion was focused on the parameters which determine whether or not a coping strategy will be effective.     

Developmental changes in units of processing in reading

A visual search task was used to investigate the development of word processing skills used in reading meaningful prose. Children from the second and fourth grades and college students were asked to locate a prespecified letter, syllable, word, or category exemplar as they read through sentences. Target detection time, sentence reading time, and sentence comprehension were measured. The results provide converging evidence that whole words were the preferred units of processing during reading for all three grade levels. Reading rates for sentences in the word search condition were comparable to normal reading rates. The search for smaller units required additional processing time, but word and category search times differed only for the youngest subjects.     

On the relationship between empathy and the actor versus observer hypothesis

Subjects listened to a tape recording of a dyadic interaction. It was predicted that the observational set instructions received by the subjects (to empathize with one member of the dyad or not to empathize with this person) would create evaluation effects similar to those created for attributions of responsibility by actor-observer differences: The actor would receive credit for his positive outcome and blame for his negative outcome more when evaluated by nonempathizing observers, and the social environment would receive credit and blame for the actor's outcomes more when evaluated by empathizing observers. The predicted three-way interaction was obtained. Additional results are discussed in terms of previous empathy research.     

The self-serving attributional bias: Beyond self-presentation

An experiment was conducted to provide empirical support for the notion that asymmetrical causal attributions for favorable and unfavorable outcomes result from a self-serving attributional bias that occurs independently of self-presentational concerns. Subjects did either well or poorly on an ego-involving test for which their performance, attributions, and evaluations of the test were either public or private. A pattern of self-serving responses for subjects' attributions and evaluations of the test was found in the private conditions, thus providing evidence of the influence of outcome favorability on individuals' perceptions of causality. Theoretical and practical implications of these finding are discussed and suggestions for future research are offered.     

Effects of instructions, biofeedback, reward, and cognitive mediation on the control of heart rate and the application of that control in a stressful situation

Subjects in Phase 1 of this experiment were (a) instructed to try to either increase or decrease their heart rate, (b) with or without the use of biofeedback, and (c) with or without the promise of money for successful performance, whereas no-treatment subjects were given no instructions, no biofeedback, and no promise of reward. Results indicated that (a) when simply instructed to do so, subjects could increase but not decrease their heart rates relative to no treatment controls, (b) the promise of money for good performance aided subjects in increasing but not decreasing heart rate, and (c) biofeedback did not aid subjects in either increasing or decreasing heart rate. Various cognitive strategies employed by subjects in controlling their heart rates are discussed.In Phase 2, subjects in a stress condition were told that they would receive a series of painful electric shocks, whereas subjects in a no stress condition were not told about shocks. All subjects were instructed to try to decrease their heart rates during the “shock” period. Heart rate and self report data revealed that (a) the manipulation was successful in increasing stress, and (b) previous training in decreasing heart rate, with or without biofeedback, did not aid subjects in decreasing their heart rates in the face of the stress.     

Effects of instructions and biofeedback on EEG-alpha production and the effects of EEG-alpha biofeedback training for controlling arousal in a subsequent stressful situation

In Phase One, 44 subjects participated in a 2 (instructions to increase alpha, no instructions to increase alpha) × 2 (alpha biofeedback, no alpha biofeedback) factorial experiment. Results indicated that increases in alpha production were due to instructions to increase alpha and that biofeedback had no effect on alpha production. In Phase Two, the 44 subjects from Phase One were exposed to a threat of shock whereas 11 additional subjects in a control condition were not. The design employed in Phase Two was a 2 (previous instructions and stress, no previous instructions and stress) × 2 (previous biofeedback and stress, no previous biofeedback and stress) plus 1 (no previous instructions/no previous biofeedback, no stress). Results indicated that the threat of shock was effective in increasing arousal (as measured by heart rate and skin resistance) but previous EEG-alpha biofeedback training was not effective in helping subjects decrease arousal while in the stressful situation. The results indicate that it is the instructions (and related information concerning alpha) rather than the biofeedback that is critical in alpha biofeedback training and that this training does not appear to have utility for controlling arousal under stress.     

A model of cognitive development across the life span

A model of cognitive development across the life span was proposed. A distinction was drawn between an individual's unexercised potential, which refers to the level of performance that would be expected if the individual had no exercise and/or training on the ability in question, and an individual's optimally-exercised potential, which refers to the level of performance that would be expected if the individual had optimal exercise and training. Both unexercised and optimally-exercised potential levels were proposed to increase with age up to early adulthood and decrease gradually thereafter. The region between the two types of potential, which was also suggested to increase during childhood and decrease during later adulthood, indicates the extent to which exercise and/or training can affect performance. This model was shown to be consistent with a number of different types of empirical findings.     

Exercise, changes in aerobic capacity, and changes in self-perceptions: An experimental investigation

Subjects in an exercise training condition participated in a 10-week aerobic exercise class, whereas subjects in waiting-list control and independent control conditions did not. The results indicated that subjects in the training condition evidenced reliably greater improvements in physical fitness (aerobic capacity) and reported reliably greater improvements in their abilities and confidence in both the physical area (e.g., ability to run distances) and nonphysical area (e.g., frustration tolerance) than did subjects in the control conditions. On the other hand, improvements in physical fitness were not related to reported improvements in abilities and confidence. These findings are of interest because they indicate that some of the important personal changes that are associated with physical fitness training are not due to changes in fitness, but appear to be due to other factors (e.g., group participation and expectancies).     

Caregiver behavior in center and family day care

In an effort to examine relationships between variations within day care settings and adult caregiving behaviors the social experiences of 40 toddlers and their caregivers in family and center care were systematically observed. Caregivers were interviewed and conditions of caregiving recorded. Caregivers in both settings with fewer children in their care, who worked shorter hours, with less housework responsibilities engaged in more facilitative social stimulation, expressed more positive affect, were more responsive, and less restrictive and negative. Family day care caregivers who worked in spaces specifically designed to be safe and appropriate for children were less restrictive of toddler activity. Adult-child ratio and caregiver training appeared to be the best indicators of quality care in center day care, while a safe and appropriate caregiving environment and small groups appeared as quality indicators in family day care.     

Facilitating cognitive performance in children: A comparison of strategy modeling and strategy modeling with overt self-verbalization

Children, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, and 10 years old, were randomly divided into three training conditions—a strategy modeling condition, a strategy modeling with overt self-verbalization condition, and a control condition. The subjects in the two modeling conditions were given training on four cognitive tasks, a signal task, a match-to-standard task, a paired-associates task, and a twenty-questions task. A 6 (age) × 2 (sex) × 3 (treatment) × 2 (trial) analysis of variance was performed on each of the dependent variables associated with each of the four tasks. The results of these analyses indicate that both modeling conditions facilitated performance on the signal and match-to-standard tasks for all six age groups. However, the two modeling procedures facilitated performance on the paired-associates and twenty-questions tasks only in the three older age groups. Since the two modeling procedures did not differ in effectiveness, it was suggested that strategy modeling without overt self-verbalization is the more practical and efficient procedure for facilitating cognitive performance in normal children.     

Multiple sessions of systolic blood pressure biofeedback: Its effects on ability to control systolic pressure during training,after training,and its effects on pulse rate

Seventy-one normotensive subjects participated in four training sessions in which they were either (a) instructed to increase their blood pressure, (b) instructed to decrease their blood pressure, or (c) not instructed to change their blood pressure. The subjects either (a) were provided with biofeedback concerning systolic blood pressure or (b) were not provided with biofeedback concerning systolic blood pressure. After the last training session, subjects participated in a transfer session in which they were again instructed concerning changes in pressure but were not provided with biofeedback. Analyses conducted on data from the training and transfer sessions indicated that subjects who were instructed to increase pressure and given biofeedback to aid them showed higher pressure than subjects in other conditions and that there were no differences among those other conditions; that is, biofeedback was effective for teaching subjects to increase pressure but was not effective for teaching subjects to decrease pressure. Additional training sessions did not add to the effect achieved in the first training session. During training sessions, subjects who were instructed to increase pressure showed higher heart rates than subjects in other conditions. The results raise questions concerning the interpretation of earlier experiments that did not include no-treatment, instructions-only, and attention control conditions.     

When celebrities talk,children listen: An experimental analysis of children's responses to TV ads with celebrity endorsement

Two studies tested the effects of TV ads with celebrity endorsement on the product preference and understanding of 8- to 14-year-old boys. Study 1 compared two ads for a model racer. One had celebrity endorsement (by a famous race driver) and footage of real automobile racing featuring the celebrity (live action); the second had neither feature. Study 2 employed one ad for a different brand of model racer edited to generate a 2 (endorser presence) by 2 (inclusion of live racetrack action) factorial design. A total of 415 boys were exposed to one of the experimental ads or a control ad, embedded in a new animated children's adventure program. Preference for the advertised brand of model racer (pre- and postviewing) and a number of cognitive variables were assessed. Exposure to endorsement led to increased preference for the toy and belief that the celebrity was expert about the toy. Live action led to exaggerated estimates of the physical properties of the toy and the belief that the ad was not staged. The 8- to 10-year-olds associated the glamour of the endorser with the toy and were more reliant on his advice than were 11- to 14-year-olds. However, the two age groups were not differentially affected by the ads. Contrary to the speculation of many researchers, understanding about advertising intent and techniques and cynicism about ads had almost no influence on product preference after viewing.     

Arousal transfer: The influence of fear arousal on subsequent sexual arousal for subjects with high and low sex guilt

Male subjects (N = 128) with high or low sex guilt either were or were not threatened with shock (fear arousal manipulation) and then viewed either an erotic or a neutral film (sex arousal manipulation). Then all subjects viewed and rated slides of attractive women and slides of landscapes (neutral control slides). If fear arousal was specifically transferred to sexual arousal as is often predicted rather than simply causing a general increase in arousal, then it would be expected that subjects who had been exposed to the threat would show high arousal in response to the slides of women and low arousal to the slides of landscapes, whereas subjects who had not been threatened would show low arousal to both the slides of women and landscapes. Physiological (pulse rate, skin resistance), self-report, and word association measures consistently indicated that (a) both of the arousal manipulations were effective, (b) the slides of women were arousing, (c) sex guilt influenced responses as would be expected from previous research, but (d) did not indicate support for arousal transference. These findings (a) provide information concerning the influence of guilt on drives, (b) raise questions about the transfer of arousal that was noted in less controlled investigations, and (c) highlight the need for additional controls in research of this type.     

Stimulus context and infant orientation discrimination

In three experiments, the effect of additional "contextual" elements on the discrimination of the orientation of linear and curvilinear segments was investigated with 4-month-old infants. In Experiment 1, paired visual matrices (one which contained some irregularity in orientation of internal elements, vs one which contained no irregularities) were presented. Infants detected irregular matrices significantly better than chance, but such detection was not aided by contextual elements. Discrimination of orientation in Experiment 2 was assessed with a paired-comparison familiarization-novelty paradigm. It was found that the addition of elements here significantly aided discrimination of linear segment orientation, but not curvilinear segment orientation. Experiment 3 investigated why this effect was not found for curvilinear segments; after equating the curvilinear stimuli to linear ones used in Experiment 2 with respect to the closedness of figure, discrimination of curvilinear orientation was observed.