Analyzing runs of an event occurring in a series with other kinds of events

A method for analyzing runs of an event occurring in a series with other kinds of events is presented. The first step of the analysis is to determine whether the event of interest occurs in longer runs than would be expected by chance. For this purpose, a cumulative frequency histogram, consisting of the relative proportions of runs as a function of length, is compared with a theoretically derived frequency histogram by means of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The theoretical histogram is the outcome of a Bernoulli process; it represents the distribution of run lengths that would be expected by chance for a given base-rate probability of occurrence of the event of interest. Iteratively applied Z tests are proposed as a post hoc procedure for use when the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test reveals that the histogram of runs is not comparable to the theoretical histogram. The results reveal how the two histograms differ. Performing the same analysis on the class of all other events reveals whether runs occur in proximity. When they do, the frequency histogram for the event should be recalculated, allowing for brief intervening runs of other events, and tested with the appropriate theoretical distribution.     

Imagining nice and nasty events in childhood or adulthood: recent positive events show the most imagination inflation

We explored whether event recency and valence affect people’s susceptibility to imagination inflation. Using a three-stage procedure, subjects imagined positive and negative events happening in their distant or recent past. First, subjects rated how confident they were that they had experienced particular positive and negative events in childhood or adulthood using a Life Events Inventory (LEI). Two weeks later, they imagined two positive and two negative events from the LEI. Finally, they rated their confidence on the LEI a second time. For positive events, subjects showed more imagination inflation for adulthood than childhood events. For negative events, they showed no difference in imagination inflation for adulthood and childhood events. We discuss factors that may influence source confusions for memories of the past and highlight directions for future research.     

Conditions for positive and negative recencies in running memory-span recognition

A positive recency effect in a running-span recognition procedure was obtained in Experiment 1 for hits and for intratrial false alarms. In running recall procedures, recency does not fit well with an active updating hypothesis. In Experiment 2, in which the beginning of the target set was marked with a cue upon presentation, the recency effects disappeared. In Experiments 3 and 4 participants were forced to maintain 2 items in memory until the last one was presented for recognition. These three items were the target set. When the last item presentation was uncertain—because of the variable length list—an unexpected negative recency effect appeared. An explanation for this change from positive to negative recency is offered based on the sharing of attentional resources put forward by others for similar procedures.     

Integration of Positive and Negative Affective Stimuli

The research reported in this article examines how multiple affective stimuli of differing valence (i.e., both positive and negative) are integrated into an overall affective response. Prior research on the integration of positive and negative information has not focused on affect, and previous affect integration research has not considered both positive and negative feelings. Two experiments investigate how positive and negative affective stimuli combine to influence overall affective responses to an advertisement, content‐specific beliefs, and overall ad evaluations. Both recency and contrast effects were observed on positive affective response and positive beliefs, but comparable effects on negative affective response and negative beliefs were not evident. The results support a motivational influence of affect on judgments.     

Does Time Fly When You are Having Fun? A Day Reconstruction Method Analysis

Duration-based measures of happiness from retrospectively constructed daily diaries are gaining in popularity in population-based studies of the hedonic experience. Yet experimental evidence suggests that perceptions of duration—how long an event lasts—are influenced by individuals’ emotional experiences during the event. An important remaining question is whether observational measures of duration outside the laboratory setting, where the events under study are engaged in voluntarily, may be similarly affected, and if so, for which emotions are duration biases a potential concern. This study assesses how duration and emotions co-vary using retrospective, 24-h diaries from a national sample of older couples. Data are from the Disability and Use of Time supplement to the nationally representative U.S. Panel Study of Income Dynamics. We find that experienced wellbeing (positive, negative emotion) and activity duration are inversely associated. Specific positive emotions (happy, calm) are not associated with duration, but all measures of negative wellbeing considered here (frustrated, worried, sad, tired, and pain) have positive correlations (ranging from 0.04 to 0.08; p < .05). However, only frustration remains correlated with duration after controlling for respondent, activity and day-related characteristics (0.06, p < .01). The correlation translates into a potentially upward biased estimate of duration of up to 10 min (20 %) for very frustrating activities. We conclude that estimates of time spent feeling happy yesterday generated from diary data are unlikely to be biased but more research is needed on the link between duration estimation and feelings of frustration.     

The hot hand fallacy and the gambler’s fallacy: Two faces of subjective randomness?

The representativeness heuristic has been invoked to explain two opposing expectations--that random sequences will exhibit positive recency (the hot hand fallacy) and that they will exhibit negative recency (the gambler's fallacy). We propose alternative accounts for these two expectations: (1) The hot hand fallacy arises from the experience of characteristic positive recency in serial fluctuations in human performance. (2) The gambler's fallacy results from the experience of characteristic negative recency in sequences of natural events, akin to sampling without replacement. Experiment 1 demonstrates negative recency in subjects' expectations for random binary outcomes from a roulette game, simultaneously with positive recency in expectations for another statistically identical sequence-the successes and failures of their predictions for the random outcomes. These findings fit our proposal but are problematic for the representativeness account. Experiment 2 demonstrates that sequence recency influences attributions that human performance or chance generated the sequence.     

A Distributed Representation of Temporal Context

The principles of recency and contiguity are two cornerstones of the theoretical and empirical analysis of human memory. Recency has been alternatively explained by mechanisms of decay, displacement, and retroactive interference. Another account of recency is based on the idea of variable context (Estes, 1955; Mensink & Raaijmakers, 1989). Such notions are typically cast in terms of a randomly fluctuating population of elements reflective of subtle changes in the environment or in the subjects' mental state. This random context view has recently been incorporated into distributed and neural network memory models (Murdock, 1997; Murdock, Smith, & Bai, 2001). Here we propose an alternative model. Rather than being driven by random fluctuations, this formulation, the temporal context model (TCM), uses retrieval of prior contextual states to drive contextual drift. In TCM, retrieved context is an inherently asymmetric retrieval cue. This allows the model to provide a principled explanation of the widespread advantage for forward recalls in free and serial recall. Modeling data from single-trial free recall, we demonstrate that TCM can simultaneously explain recency and contiguity effects across time scales.     

Scaling behavior in the temporal context model

The Temporal Context Model (TCM) postulates a distributed representation of temporal context that provides the cue for episodic recall tasks. TCM, coupled with the Luce Choice Rule for determining probability of recall, a conjunction referred to as TCMFR, is able to explain the existence of the long-term recency effect, as well as predicting the persistence of associative effects even with the inclusion of a delay between items. Here, quantitative predictions of TCMFR such as the magnitude of the delay interval is increased in continuous-distractor free recall are developed. The magnitude of the recency effect is operationally defined as the ratio of the probability of first recall (PFR) of the last list item to the PFR of the next-to-last item. Properties of associative effects are operationalized by using analogous measures derived from conditional response probability (CRP) curves. TCMFR predicts a decrease in recency with increasing delay. The rate of this decay and the qualitative pattern of change with increasing delay depend on the rate of contextual drift. For a range of values of the rate of contextual drift, TCMFR also predicts a transient increase in the recency effect as the length of the delay increases from zero. The model predicts that contiguity effects in free recall should follow a similar pattern, but that associative asymmetry, ubiquitously observed in free recall, should decay monotonically with increases in the delay interval.     

Generic cognitive adaptations to task interference in task switching

The present study investigated how the activation of previous tasks interferes with the execution of future tasks as a result of temporal manipulations. Color and shape matching tasks were organized in runs of two trials each. The tasks were specified by a cue presented before a task run, cueing only the first trials of each run. Response times (RTs) and error rates were measured for task switching and task repetition conditions. Task interference was varied as a function of response-cue interval (RCI of 300 and 900 ms), that is, the interval between the task runs. Keeping the response-stimulus interval within the task runs constant at 300 ms allowed the disentangling of the direct effects of RCI manipulation on performance (first trials) from the general effects on performance (both trials in the run). The data showed similar performance improvement due to RCI increase on both trials in the task run. Furthermore, increasing RCI improved both switch and repetition performance to a similar extent. Together, our findings provide further evidence for accounts stressing generic effects of proactive task interference in task switching.     

Correcting the correction of conditional recency slopes

Farrell (Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory, and Cognition, 36, 324–347, 2010) presented some analyses of free recall data that suggest that recency items initially become more accessible as recall progresses, in contrast to the assumptions of temporal drift models. Moran and Goshen-Gottstein (2013) present some challenges to Farrell’s (2010) analyses of the change in conditional recency across output position in free recall. Simulations using a very basic free recall model that controls conditional recency across recall show that Farrell’s (2010) analyses are not substantially biased, while the procedure proposed by Moran and Goshen-Gottstein introduces a substantial underestimation of the true slopes. The null slopes observed in immediate recall by Moran and Goshen-Gottstein are not informative of the true slopes characterizing the data. Accordingly, Farrell’s (2010) results continue to present a challenge to temporal drift models.     

The effects of recency and story content on children's moral judgments

Sixteen stories were read to children at ages 4, 7, and 11 years and to college freshmen (n = 24 per age level) to investigate the effects of recency and specific story content on the development of moral reasoning. The stories consisted of either positive or negative intention and either positive or negative consequence in one of four situations: rule breaking, property damage, property damage with peer interaction, or injury to a person. At each age level, half of the subjects heard the stories with the intention first and the consequence second, and half heard them in the reverse order. Analyses confirmed that in general younger children judged on consequence, whereas older children utilized intention, and that on stories containing intentional injury to a person, the younger child took intention into account. Recency effects were evidenced for both the 4- and 7-year-olds. In the 4-year-old group, however, the recency effects failed to override the salience of negative consequence in contexts of positive intention and negative consequence. This suggests that preschool children may respond primarily to the negative aspect of the story, whether intention or consequence.     

Transgression and altruism: A case for hedonism

A model to account for the positive relationship between transgression and altruism was proposed and tested against three alternative formulations—Guilt, Social Justice, and Self-esteem Bolstering. The proposed model, Negative State Relief, asserts that people in a transgression situation behave charitably in order to reduce a general, negative affective state which is induced by exposure to harm-doing and that if the negative state is relieved by some other means, benevolent activity will be rendered unnecessary. All of the experimental subjects were exposed to an act of transgression; half performed the act themselves while half only witnessed it. In one set of experimental conditions (the relief conditions), a positive event—the receipt of either money or approval—was interposed between the harmful act and a fellow-student's request for aid. In another set of experimental conditions (the norelief conditions), no such positive event occurred. It was found, as predicted, that subjects who received a positive event were significantly less helpful than those who did not, but were not different from a control group which had never been exposed to the transgression. It was also found that harm-doers and harm-witnesses were identical in benevolent tendency. The results were interpreted as favoring a hedonistic conception of the nature of altruism. Finally, it was contended that a U-shaped relationship exists between mood state and helping tendency.     

Children's binary prediction of partially learnable sequences followed by an all-correct procedure

Six groups of 20 subjects each were run individually in a binary prediction situation with each alternative occurring equally often. Two age groups were employed; subjects were either in second or sixth grades. For one-third of the subjects at each age level, the events occurred in runs of either two or six; another third observed events which occurred in runs of either five or six; the other subjects received a random sequence of events. All subjects then received an additional 50 trials in which every prediction was correct. The results indicated some sensitivity to run length characteristics. Fewer errors of all types were made in the prediction of 5–6 sequences. The verbal reports and all-correct trial protocols revealed that at least the sixth graders employed some simple run length structure rules, although many instances of runs other than those presented in training occurred, showing much processing error. The results were discussed in terms of a general limited-capacity model of information-processing.     

The test taker's fallacy: How students guess answers on multiple‐choice tests

Many students and applicants take multiple‐choice tests to demonstrate their competence and achievement. When they are unsure, they guess the most likely answer to maximize their score. Despite the impact of guessing on test reliability and individual performance, studies have not examined how patterns of answer sequences in multiple‐choice tests affect guessing. This research presents the test taker's fallacy, which refers to an individual's tendency to expect a different answer to appear for the next question given a run of the same answer choices. The test taker's fallacy exhibits negative recency, similar to the gambler's fallacy. However, extending the sequential judgment literature, the test taker's fallacy shows that negative recency arises even when sequences may or may not be randomly generated. In three studies, including a survey and experiments, the test taker's fallacy is robustly observed. The test taker's fallacy is consistent with the operation of the representativeness heuristic. This research explains what and how test takers guess given a streak of answers and extends judgment under uncertainty to the test‐taking context.     

Identifying ICT-Related Affective Events Across Life Domains and Examining their Unique Relationships with Employee Recovery

The purpose of this study was to investigate the role of information and communication technology (ICT) use for employees by exploring affective ICT events and their relation to employee recovery. We conducted two daily diary studies with knowledge workers in Germany. In study 1 (N = 153), we followed a qualitative approach by developing a taxonomy of negative and positive ICT events at work and at home. We found 11 negative (e.g., multichannel use, work e-mails in the evening) and 10 positive ICT event clusters (e.g., utilizing idle times, availability at home). In study 2 (N = 154), we examined how the occurrence of ICT-related events in the evening is related to detachment from work and sleep quality using a multilevel design. Study 2 provided a differentiated picture of relationships between evening ICT events and recovery. Overall, results indicate that work-related ICT events in the evening—even in cases where they are appraised as positive—are detrimental for employee recovery. Our study contributes to the refinement of the operationalization of ICT use for future analyses of ICT impacts and sheds light on the differential effects of specific types of ICT events. ICT use conceptualized as the occurrence of affective events helps to advance our understanding of the diversity of ICT-related experiences. The negative effects of handling work e-mails at home imply that organizations should engage in optimizing their “e-mail culture.”     

More than a feeling: Emotional cues impact the access and experience of autobiographical memories

Remembering is impacted by several factors of retrieval, including the emotional content of a memory cue. Here we tested how musical retrieval cues that differed on two dimensions of emotion—valence (positive and negative) and arousal (high and low)—impacted the following aspects of autobiographical memory recall: the response time to access a past personal event, the experience of remembering (ratings of memory vividness), the emotional content of a cued memory (ratings of event arousal and valence), and the type of event recalled (ratings of event energy, socialness, and uniqueness). We further explored how cue presentation affected autobiographical memory retrieval by administering cues of similar arousal and valence levels in a blocked fashion to one half of the tested participants, and randomly to the other half. We report three main findings. First, memories were accessed most quickly in response to musical cues that were highly arousing and positive in emotion. Second, we observed a relation between a cue and the elicited memory’s emotional valence but not arousal; however, both the cue valence and arousal related to the nature of the recalled event. Specifically, high cue arousal led to lower memory vividness and uniqueness ratings, but cues with both high arousal and positive valence were associated with memories rated as more social and energetic. Finally, cue presentation impacted both how quickly and specifically memories were accessed and how cue valence affected the memory vividness ratings. The implications of these findings for views of how emotion directs the access to memories and the experience of remembering are discussed.     

Effects of event valence on long-term memory for two baseball championship games

We investigated how event valence affected accuracy and vividness of long-term memory for two comparable public events. In 2008, 1,563 fans answered questions about objective details concerning two decisive baseball championship games between the Yankees (2003 winners) and the Red Sox (2004 winners). Both between- and within-groups analyses indicated that fans remembered the game their team won significantly more accurately than the game their team lost. Fans also reported more vividness and more rehearsal for the game their team won. We conclude that individuals rehearse positive events more than comparable negative events, and that this additional rehearsal increases both vividness and accuracy of memories about positive events. Our results differ from those of prior studies involving memories for negative events that may have been unavoidably rehearsed; such rehearsal may have kept those memories from fading. Long-term memory for an event is determined not only by the valence of the event, but also by experiences after the event.     

预期想象对拖延的影响:想象过程和想象结果的效应分离

摘要 为了考察预期想象对不同拖延水平个体拖延行为的影响,本研究采用一般拖延量表(General Procrastination Scale)选取高拖延被试和低拖延被试,要求被试在进行模拟现实的拖延任务之前分别对任务过程和任务结果进行预期想象,比较不同拖延水平的被试在预期想象作用下拖延行为的变化。结果表明：(1)在两组被试中,相比于无想象条件下的拖延行为,对任务过程的预期想象增强拖延行为,对任务结果的预期想象削弱拖延行为;(2)对任务不同成分的预期想象所引发的情绪与拖延行为的变化相关显著。这说明情绪和预期想象是影响拖延的重要因素,合理地操纵对任务不同成分的预期想象可以有效干预拖延行为。     

The Effects of Life Events Inventory

There has been some disagreement in the literature regarding the wisdom of including negative and positive life events in life event scales. However, underlying much of this discussion has been the assumption that the negativity or positivity of various events may be denoted a priori. The present study investigated the relative desirability and impact of 66 life events rewritten to suit the culture of the samples used. In addition, the effect of recency of occurrence of these events was explored. Results clearly indicated that some apparently negative life events were experienced as desirable by some participants, and that some apparently positive events were experienced as undesirable by several participants. Differences in response patterns according to age, gender, anxiety level, and type of presenting problem were also examined. The implications of these findings for assessment in clinical and research situations are discussed.