An Examination of a Functional Mixed-Effects Modeling Approach to the Analysis of Longitudinal Data

Growth curve modeling is one of the main analytical approaches to study change over time. Growth curve models are commonly estimated in the linear and nonlinear mixed-effects modeling framework in which both the mean and person-specific curves are modeled parametrically with functions of time such as the linear, quadratic, and exponential. However, when more complex nonlinear trajectories need to be estimated and researchers do not have a priori knowledge of an appropriate functional form of growth, parametric models may be too restrictive. This paper reviews functional mixed-effects models, a nonparametric extension of mixed-effects models that permit both the mean and person-specific curves to be estimated without assuming a prespecified functional form of growth. Details of the model are presented along with results from a simulation study and an empirical example. The simulation study showed functional mixed-effects models performed reasonably well under various conditions commonly associated with longitudinal panel data, such as few time points per person, irregularly spaced time points across persons, missingness, and nonlinear trajectories. The usefulness of functional mixed-effects models is illustrated by analyzing empirical data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study – Kindergarten Class of 1998–1999.     

An Unscented Kalman Filter Approach to the Estimation of Nonlinear Dynamical Systems Models

In the past several decades, methodologies used to estimate nonlinear relationships among latent variables have been developed almost exclusively to fit cross-sectional models. We present a relatively new estimation approach, the unscented Kalman filter (UKF), and illustrate its potential as a tool for fitting nonlinear dynamic models in two ways: (1) as a building block for approximating the log–likelihood of nonlinear state–space models and (2) to fit time-varying dynamic models wherein parameters are represented and estimated online as other latent variables. Furthermore, the substantive utility of the UKF is demonstrated using simulated examples of (1) the classical predator-prey model with time series and multiple–subject data, (2) the chaotic Lorenz system and (3) an empirical example of dyadic interaction.     

Selectivity, scope, and simplicity of models: a lesson from fitting judgments of perceived depth.

When comparing psychological models a researcher should assess their relative selectivity, scope, and simplicity. The third of these considerations can be measured by the models' parameter counts or equation length, the second by their ability to fit random data, and the first by their differential ability to fit patterned data over random data. These conclusions are based on exploration of integration models reflecting depth judgments. Replication of Massaro's (1988a) results revealed an additive model (Bruno & Cutting, 1988), and Massaro's fuzzy-logical model of perception (FLMP) fit data equally well, but further exploration showed that the FLMP fit random data better. The FLMP's successes may reflect not its sensitivity in capturing psychological process but its scope in fitting any data and its complexity as measured by equation length.     

Factor copula models for mixed data

We develop factor copula models to analyse the dependence among mixed continuous and discrete responses. Factor copula models are canonical vine copulas that involve both observed and latent variables, hence they allow tail, asymmetric and nonlinear dependence. They can be explained as conditional independence models with latent variables that do not necessarily have an additive latent structure. We focus on important issues of interest to the social data analyst, such as model selection and goodness of fit. Our general methodology is demonstrated with an extensive simulation study and illustrated by reanalysing three mixed response data sets. Our studies suggest that there can be a substantial improvement over the standard factor model for mixed data and make the argument for moving to factor copula models.     

Generalized latent variable models with non‐linear effects

Until recently, item response models such as the factor analysis model for metric responses, the two‐parameter logistic model for binary responses and the multinomial model for nominal responses considered only the main effects of latent variables without allowing for interaction or polynomial latent variable effects. However, non‐linear relationships among the latent variables might be necessary in real applications. Methods for fitting models with non‐linear latent terms have been developed mainly under the structural equation modelling approach. In this paper, we consider a latent variable model framework for mixed responses (metric and categorical) that allows inclusion of both non‐linear latent and covariate effects. The model parameters are estimated using full maximum likelihood based on a hybrid integration–maximization algorithm. Finally, a method for obtaining factor scores based on multiple imputation is proposed here for the non‐linear model.     

Ordinal state-trait regression for intensive longitudinal data

In many psychological studies, in particular those conducted by experience sampling, mental states are measured repeatedly for each participant. Such a design allows for regression models that separate between- from within-person, or trait-like from state-like, components of association between two variables. But these models are typically designed for continuous variables, whereas mental state variables are most often measured on an ordinal scale. In this paper we develop a model for disaggregating between- from within-person effects of one ordinal variable on another. As in standard ordinal regression, our model posits a continuous latent response whose value determines the observed response. We allow the latent response to depend nonlinearly on the trait and state variables, but impose a novel penalty that shrinks the fit towards a linear model on the latent scale. A simulation study shows that this penalization approach is effective at finding a middle ground between an overly restrictive linear model and an overfitted nonlinear model. The proposed method is illustrated with an application to data from the experience sampling study of Baumeister et al. (2020, Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 46, 1631).     

A Note on Comparing the Estimates of Models for Cluster-Correlated or Longitudinal Data with Binary or Ordinal Outcomes

When using linear models for cluster-correlated or longitudinal data, a common modeling practice is to begin by fitting a relatively simple model and then to increase the model complexity in steps. New predictors might be added to the model, or a more complex covariance structure might be specified for the observations. When fitting models for binary or ordered-categorical outcomes, however, comparisons between such models are impeded by the implicit rescaling of the model estimates that takes place with the inclusion of new predictors and/or random effects. This paper presents an approach for putting the estimates on a common scale to facilitate relative comparisons between models fit to binary or ordinal outcomes. The approach is developed for both population-average and unit-specific models.     

随机截距因子分析模型在控制条目表述效应中的应用

本研究用中文修订版罗森博格自尊量表(RSES-R)考察随机截距因子分析模型在控制条目表述效应时的表现。用RSES-R和过分宣称问卷组成的量表调查621名中学生。结果表明,随机截距模型在建模时,拟合指数良好、因子方差与负荷合理,自尊因子分与RSES-R总分有极高相关,表明该模型能有效分离RSES-R得分的特质与表述效应。分离的表述效应因子分与受测者的自我提升水平具有显著但较弱的相关,表明表述效应与自受测者的社会赞许性有共同的成分。     

A Bayesian Model For The Estimation Of Latent Interaction And Quadratic Effects When Latent Variables Are Non-Normally Distributed

Structural equation models with interaction and quadratic effects have become a standard tool for testing nonlinear hypotheses in the social sciences. Most of the current approaches assume normally distributed latent predictor variables. In this article, we present a Bayesian model for the estimation of latent nonlinear effects when the latent predictor variables are nonnormally distributed. The nonnormal predictor distribution is approximated by a finite mixture distribution. We conduct a simulation study that demonstrates the advantages of the proposed Bayesian model over contemporary approaches (Latent Moderated Structural Equations [LMS], Quasi-Maximum-Likelihood [QML], and the extended unconstrained approach) when the latent predictor variables follow a nonnormal distribution. The conventional approaches show biased estimates of the nonlinear effects; the proposed Bayesian model provides unbiased estimates. We present an empirical example from work and stress research and provide syntax for substantive researchers. Advantages and limitations of the new model are discussed.     

A Newton procedure for conditionally linear mixed-effects models

This article reviews Newton procedures for the analysis of mean and covariance structures that may be functions of parameters that enter a model nonlinearly. The kind of model considered is a mixed-effects model that is conditionally linear with regard to its parameters. This means parameters entering the model nonlinearly must be fixed, whereas those entering linearly may vary across individuals. This framework encompasses several models, including hierarchical linear models, linear and nonlinear factor analysis models, and nonlinear latent curve models. A full maximum-likelihood estimation procedure is described. Mx, a statistical software package often used to estimate structural equation models, is considered for estimation of these models. An example with Mx syntax is provided.     

A nonlinear mixed model framework for item response theory

Mixed models take the dependency between observations based on the same cluster into account by introducing 1 or more random effects. Common item response theory (IRT) models introduce latent person variables to model the dependence between responses of the same participant. Assuming a distribution for the latent variables, these IRT models are formally equivalent with nonlinear mixed models. It is shown how a variety of IRT models can be formulated as particular instances of nonlinear mixed models. The unifying framework offers the advantage that relations between different IRT models become explicit and that it is rather straightforward to see how existing IRT models can be adapted and extended. The approach is illustrated with a self-report study on anger.     

Estimating, testing, and comparing specific effects in structural equation models: the phantom model approach

The phantom model approach for estimating, testing, and comparing specific effects within structural equation models (SEMs) is presented. The rationale underlying this novel method consists in representing the specific effect to be assessed as a total effect within a separate latent variable model, the phantom model that is added to the main model. The following favorable features characterize the method: (a) It enables the estimation, testing, and comparison of arbitrary specific effects for recursive and nonrecursive models with latent and manifest variables; (b) it enables the bootstrapping of confidence intervals; and (c) it can be applied with all standard SEM programs permitting latent variables, the specification of equality constraints, and the bootstrapping of total effects. These features along with the fact that no manipulation of matrices and formulas is required make the approach particularly suitable for applied researchers. The method is illustrated by means of 3 examples with real data sets.     

The integration of continuous and discrete latent variable models: potential problems and promising opportunities

Structural equation mixture modeling (SEMM) integrates continuous and discrete latent variable models. Drawing on prior research on the relationships between continuous and discrete latent variable models, the authors identify 3 conditions that may lead to the estimation of spurious latent classes in SEMM: misspecification of the structural model, nonnormal continuous measures, and nonlinear relationships among observed and/or latent variables. When the objective of a SEMM analysis is the identification of latent classes, these conditions should be considered as alternative hypotheses and results should be interpreted cautiously. However, armed with greater knowledge about the estimation of SEMMs in practice, researchers can exploit the flexibility of the model to gain a fuller understanding of the phenomenon under study.     

Representing Sudden Shifts in Intensive Dyadic Interaction Data Using Differential Equation Models with Regime Switching

A growing number of social scientists have turned to differential equations as a tool for capturing the dynamic interdependence among a system of variables. Current tools for fitting differential equation models do not provide a straightforward mechanism for diagnosing evidence for qualitative shifts in dynamics, nor do they provide ways of identifying the timing and possible determinants of such shifts. In this paper, we discuss regime-switching differential equation models, a novel modeling framework for representing abrupt changes in a system of differential equation models. Estimation was performed by combining the Kim filter (Kim and Nelson State-space models with regime switching: classical and Gibbs-sampling approaches with applications, MIT Press, Cambridge, 1999) and a numerical differential equation solver that can handle both ordinary and stochastic differential equations. The proposed approach was motivated by the need to represent discrete shifts in the movement dynamics of \(n= 29\) mother–infant dyads during the Strange Situation Procedure (SSP), a behavioral assessment where the infant is separated from and reunited with the mother twice. We illustrate the utility of a novel regime-switching differential equation model in representing children’s tendency to exhibit shifts between the goal of staying close to their mothers and intermittent interest in moving away from their mothers to explore the room during the SSP. Results from empirical model fitting were supplemented with a Monte Carlo simulation study to evaluate the use of information criterion measures to diagnose sudden shifts in dynamics.     

Regression among factor scores

Structural equation models with latent variables are sometimes estimated using an intuitive three-step approach, here denoted factor score regression. Consider a structural equation model composed of an explanatory latent variable and a response latent variable related by a structural parameter of scientific interest. In this simple example estimation of the structural parameter proceeds as follows: First, common factor models areseparately estimated for each latent variable. Second, factor scores areseparately assigned to each latent variable, based on the estimates. Third, ordinary linear regression analysis is performed among the factor scores producing an estimate for the structural parameter. We investigate the asymptotic and finite sample performance of different factor score regression methods for structural equation models with latent variables. It is demonstrated that the conventional approach to factor score regression performs very badly. Revised factor score regression, using Regression factor scores for the explanatory latent variables and Bartlett scores for the response latent variables, produces consistent estimators for all parameters.     

Maximum Likelihood Analysis of Nonlinear Structural Equation Models With Dichotomous Variables

In this article, a maximum likelihood approach is developed to analyze structural equation models with dichotomous variables that are common in behavioral, psychological and social research. To assess nonlinear causal effects among the latent variables, the structural equation in the model is defined by a nonlinear function. The basic idea of the development is to augment the observed dichotomous data with the hypothetical missing data that involve the latent underlying continuous measurements and the latent variables in the model. An EM algorithm is implemented. The conditional expectation in the E-step is approximated via observations simulated from the appropriate conditional distributions by a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm within the Gibbs sampler, whilst the M-step is completed by conditional maximization. Convergence is monitored by bridge sampling. Standard errors are also obtained. Results from a simulation study and a real example are presented to illustrate the methodology.     

How to Generate Non-normal Data for Simulation of Structural Equation Models

A procedure for generating non-normal data for simulation of structural equation models is proposed. A simple transformation of univariate random variables is used for the generation of data on latent and error variables under some restrictions for the elements of the covariance matrices for these variables. Data on the observed variables is then computed from latent and error variables according to the model. It is shown that by controlling univariate skewness and kurtosis on pre-specified random latent and error variables, observed variables can be made to have a relatively wide range of univariate skewness and kurtosis characteristics according to the pre-specified model. Univariate distributions are used for the generation of data which enables a user to choose from a large number of different distributions. The use of the proposed procedure is illustrated for two different structural equation models and it is shown how PRELIS can be used to generate the data.     

潜变量交互效应建模: 告别均值结构

潜变量交互效应建模研究近年来有了长足的发展, 但模型中被认为不可缺少的均值结构往往让实际应用工作者却步。本文首先分析了潜变量交互效应模型中均值结构产生的根源; 然后讨论了指标变换与均值结构的关系; 接着提出了一个均值为零的潜变量交互结构, 所建立的模型不需要均值结构, 却不会改变主效应和交互效应等参数; 最后用模拟例子对无均值结构和有均值结构的两种模型的参数估计进行了比较, 结果符合理论预期, 困扰人们多年的均值结构问题从此可以终结。     

Multilevel and Latent Variable Modeling with Composite Links and Exploded Likelihoods

Composite links and exploded likelihoods are powerful yet simple tools for specifying a wide range of latent variable models. Applications considered include survival or duration models, models for rankings, small area estimation with census information, models for ordinal responses, item response models with guessing, randomized response models, unfolding models, latent class models with random effects, multilevel latent class models, models with log-normal latent variables, and zero-inflated Poisson models with random effects. Some of the ideas are illustrated by estimating an unfolding model for attitudes to female work participation. We wish to thank The Research Council of Norway for a grant supporting our collaboration.