A case study of expert judgment: Economists' probabilities versus base-rate model forecasts

In this case study of economists' forecasts concerning economic downturn, we examine key issues concerning the psychology of prediction and the controversy surrounding the value of expertise in forecasting. We examine when experts' knowledge promotes forecast accuracy and whether biases found in psychological studies (including underutilization of relevant base rates and tendencies to extreme prediction) occur in these economic forecasts. Experts' forecasts were compared to forecasts derived from base-rate models that relied on the historical frequencies of economic downturns. The performance patterns of the experts and models crossed over the forecast horizon. Experts outperformed models in shorter-term forecasting, whereas models outperformed experts in longer-term forecasting. These results highlight the abilities and limits of experts and models in prediction and the sources of their inaccuracy.     

Frequency of measurement and data utilization as factors in standardized behavioral assessment of academic skill

A study was conducted to investigate the effects on students' spelling achievement of variations in teacher assessment procedures. Teachers measured student spelling performance at a constant level of task difficulty using different measurement frequencies and different rules to interpret the data. Each teacher wrote two consecutive 3-week goals for improved spelling performance for two sets of 100 spelling words and then measured student performance either daily or weekly by dictating randomly selected words from each 100-word list. Teachers were trained to apply either a predetermined set of decision rules or their own judgment to the data to decide if the spelling program they had implemented for the student was effective. Ineffective programs were changed or modified. Results indicated that daily measurement was significantly more effective than weekly measurement in increasing spelling achievement and that, under certain conditions, decision rules were more effective than teacher judgment in determining when to make program changes or modifications.This research was conducted pursuant to Contract 300-77-0491 between the Bureau of Education for the Handicapped (now called Special Education Programs) and the University of Minnesota Institute for Research on Learning Disabilities.     

The Situational Test of Emotional Management – Brief (STEM-B): Development and validation using item response theory and latent class analysis

This study uses a 3-Parameter Logistic item response theory (IRT) model to develop an 18-item short-form of the Situational Test of Emotion Management (STEM). In a sample of 900 people, the short form showed acceptable reliability (reliability index = .87; Cronbach’s alpha = .84) and a meaningful correlation with another indicator of emotional intelligence (i.e., r = .30 with the Situational Test of Emotional Understanding). Latent class analysis of the short-form detected two classes. For all items, participants in Class 2 had a higher probability of selecting the best option than Class 1. When response options were coded to represent different emotion regulation strategies, Class 2 had a higher probability of endorsing “situation modification” and Class 1 had a higher probability of endorsing “no regulation”. These results provide validity evidence for the STEM-B as an assessment of emotion regulation.     

论元认知和智力的相互关系

元认知水平与智力活动之间关系密切。元认知由三部分组成：元认知知识、元认知体验和元认知技能,它与智力中的元成分、操作成分和知识获得成分密切相关。人知在人类智力因素中占有重要作用,是智力活动中的核心因素之一。智力也会影响元认知活动。它们之间相互影响、相互作用。     

Teachers facing school failure: the social valorization of effort in the school context

This paper describes two studies concerning teachers’ classroom interventions facing school failure. The role of two main variables is investigated: the lack of effort as a cause of failure students are held responsible for by teachers, and teacher’s social representations of intelligence. The first study (Study 1) explored the impact of “lack of effort” causal attribution for student’s failure on the intervention strategies adopted by 122 high school teachers. Study 2 analyzed the impact of social representations of intelligence, held by 202 high school teachers, on “lack of effort” causal inference and on behavioral interventions. Results highlight that teachers mostly choose more severe educational interventions with retributive purpose when failure is ascribable to an absence of effort expenditure by the student. Moreover, the findings support the role of teachers’ social representations of intelligence in failure explanations and in educational practices, showing that “lack of effort” attribution and practices with retributive purpose are predicted by the social representation of intelligence “as a gift”. Results are analyzed and discussed by considering the effort as a normative parameter of the school environment. This research was supported financially in part by MURST “University funds, 2004 (Ex 40%)”. Portions of these results were presented at the 8th International Conference on Social Representations, Rome.     

Calibration of sensory and cognitive judgments: A single model for both

In a recent issue of this journal, Winman and Juslin (34 , 135–148, 1993) present a model of the calibration of subjective probability judgments for sensory discrimination tasks. They claim that the model predicts a pervasive underconfidence bias observed in such tasks, and present evidence from a training experiment that they interpret as supporting the notion that different models are needed to describe judgment of confidence in sensory and in cognitive tasks. The model is actually part of the more comprehensive decision variable partition model of subjective probability calibration that was originally proposed in Ferrell and McGoey (Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 26 , 32–53, 1980). The characteristics of the model are described and it is demonstrated that the model does not predict underconfidence, that it is fully compatible with the overconfidence frequently found in calibration studies with cognitive tasks, and that it well represents experimental results from such studies. It is concluded that only a single model is needed for both types of task.     

类别使用的特征诊断效应

运用预备实验评定过的鱼轮廓图,考察了类别判断和特征预测这两种类别使用方式下的特征诊断效应。被试是48名大学生,学习材料是两类鱼的类别成员,在测验阶段,实验1判断新项目类别标签,实验2预测新项目的缺失特征。结果表明,类别判断条件下,单个特征诊断力加强和诊断性特征数量增加都对类别判断有促进作用;特征预测条件下,只有单个特征诊断力加强可以促进特征预测,诊断性特征数量增加无助于特征预测     

BEHAVIOR ANALYSIS: THRIVING,BUT HOW ABOUT ITS FUTURE?

Behavior analysis has been thriving by continuing to make important theoretical and empirical contributions to a wide array of problems, as well as by contributing to interdisciplinary research. Applied research in behavior analysis is flourishing. Despite these positive signs there may be an erosion of support for basic research in animal learning and behavior, including behavior analysis. Increased attention by behavior analysts to fundamental problems in areas of cognition, including decision-making and language, may help behavior analysis to evolve more successfully. An experimental analysis of gambling may prove particularly fruitful.     

情感预测中的聚焦错觉

聚焦错觉是个体在进行情感预测时,错误地估计了聚焦事件会对情绪造成影响的一种倾向.聚焦错觉是造成情感预测偏差的重要原因.其心理机制主要包括直觉预测和可得性模型.聚焦错觉的影响因素主要有预测事件的情感效价、性质,情境因素、个体习惯和文化差异等.其应对策略主要有去焦点化和情感平均.未来的研究应从聚焦错觉与忽视情绪适应的关系、聚焦错觉的产生根源以及聚焦错觉与其他聚焦效应的关系等方面来进一步探讨.