脑成像技术及其在决策研究中的应用

先进的无创神经影像技术(如EEG和fMRI)允许研究者直接观察被试在完成多种知觉、运动和认知任务时的大脑活动。将脑功能成像与严密的实验设计和数据分析方法结合起来, 我们可以考察大脑不同脑区的功能以及它们之间的交互作用。随着脑功能成像技术在研究人类决策行为中的日益成功运用, 一个被称为神经经济学的新兴领域正在逐渐形成和发展起来。本文中首先对脑成像技术进行一个总体介绍, 重点在于探讨近年来在多体素分析和多模态数据整合的最新进展。接下来, 我们以风险决策、跨时间选择以及社会决策领域的几个研究为例, 阐述神经影像技术如何能加深和拓展我们对人类决策的认识。最后, 我们讨论了神经经济学中研究中面临的一些挑战以及未来的研究方向。     

多时点结果跨期选择的决策效应及其心理机制

多时点结果跨期选择涉及两个及两个以上多个时点结果的权衡, 正日益成为跨期选择的研究重点。现有研究主要从两时点结果和序列结果两方面深入探讨了多时点结果跨期选择中的诸多决策效应, 包括：隐藏的零效应、象征效应、额外金额效应、前端金额效应以及序列效应, 并运用序列模型和权衡模型对上述决策效应进行阐释。未来还应深入探索同时涉及损益结果混合的多时点结果跨期选择, 运用决策过程追踪技术揭示决策效应的过程机制。     

动机冲突影响混合跨期决策：趋近-回避动机理论视角

组织与个人面临的许多决策, 既无纯粹获益, 也无纯粹损失, 往往需要同时对未来不同时间点的损益加以权衡, 这类损益兼具的决策称为混合跨期决策。过往研究通常沿用纯粹获益或损失跨期决策的理论框架, 缺乏与混合跨期决策相匹配的理论建构和决策过程探索。基于此, 本研究从趋近-回避动机理论出发, 探索动机冲突影响混合跨期决策的过程机制。研究1拟探讨混合跨期决策中动机冲突特点, 及其与决策行为之间的关系。研究2则计划分别操纵影响动机冲突程度的内源性因素(得失金额的相对差异程度)和外源性因素(资源有限程度), 试图揭示动机冲突程度与混合跨期决策之间的因果链条。研究3拟采用鼠标追踪技术, 基于决策过程指标进一步探索动机冲突影响混合跨期决策的过程机制。我们预期该研究结果有利于从动机冲突视角揭示并建构混合跨期决策的作用机制, 同时也将为涉及混合跨期情境的企业管理和个体消费决策提供科学依据。     

跨期决策的神经机制：基于体素形态学和弥散张量成像研究的证据

目前神经经济学的首要目标是探讨人们经济决策背后的认知机制和神经基础。随着脑成像技术的发展, 人们对于脑结构和功能的认识也越来越深入。跨期决策作为经济决策领域的一个重要分支, 对其理解可以丰富决策的理论内容。首先, 梳理了关于跨期决策神经机制研究, 阐述了跨期决策的四种理论, 分别为单一评价理论(single-valuation theory)、双评价理论(dual-valuation theory)、自我控制理论(self-control theory)和自我参照加工理论(self-referential processing theory), 以及脑损伤研究证据。其次, 分别整理了基于体素形态学和弥散张量成像技术在跨期决策领域中的应用, 并揭示前额叶灰质和白质体积以及背外侧前额叶-纹状体神经纤维连接对于决策冲动性的影响。最后, 未来研究需要注意其在研究方法、认知过程、决策冲动性评估模型上的创新与突破。     

The predictive accuracy of intertemporal‐choice models

How do people choose between a smaller reward available sooner and a larger reward available later? Past research has evaluated models of intertemporal choice by measuring goodness of fit or identifying which decision‐making anomalies they can accommodate. An alternative criterion for model quality, which is partly antithetical to these standard criteria, is predictive accuracy. We used cross‐validation to examine how well 10 models of intertemporal choice could predict behaviour in a 100‐trial binary‐decision task. Many models achieved the apparent ceiling of 85% accuracy, even with smaller training sets. When noise was added to the training set, however, a simple logistic‐regression model we call the difference model performed particularly well. In many situations, between‐model differences in predictive accuracy may be small, contrary to long‐standing controversy over the modelling question in research on intertemporal choice, but the simplicity and robustness of the difference model recommend it to future use.     

情绪对跨期决策的影响：来自单维占优模型的解释

跨期决策的研究表明, 积极情绪和消极情绪状态下的跨期决策行为存在显著差异。本研究从单维占优模型的角度, 揭示情绪影响跨期决策的过程机制。实验1通过诱发被试的积极和消极情绪, 发现积极情绪下被试的时间折扣率更低, 有更强的选择延迟选项的倾向。实验2运用“模拟天平任务”测量了跨期决策时的维度间差异比较, 检验单维占优模型对情绪影响跨期决策的解释性。结果发现, 维度间差异比较在情绪对跨期决策的影响中起中介作用。实验3a和实验3b分别运用时间和金钱启动策略操纵维度间差异比较过程, 再次验证单维占优模型的解释作用。 结果发现, 情绪对跨期决策的效应随着时间和金钱的启动而消失, 进一步支持了维度间差异比较的中介作用。本研究从决策过程的角度, 揭示了情绪影响跨期决策的心理机制, 并进一步为单维占优模型对跨期决策行为的解释性增加了支持性证据。     

神经经济学及其相关研究

虽然神经科学已经有了很长的历史,但只是在最近若干年,这一学科才用于回答关于决策、选择、偏好、风险和快乐等问题。这一新的研究领域,被称为神经经济学,它试图揭示广泛的经济和消费行为的神经机能。该文主要回顾了神经经济学研究的重要发展过程、主要的研究主题。     

Neuroeconomics: cross-currents in research on decision-making

Despite substantial advances, the question of how we make decisions and judgments continues to pose important challenges for scientific research. Historically, different disciplines have approached this problem using different techniques and assumptions, with few unifying efforts made. However, the field of neuroeconomics has recently emerged as an inter-disciplinary effort to bridge this gap. Research in neuroscience and psychology has begun to investigate neural bases of decision predictability and value, central parameters in the economic theory of expected utility. Economics, in turn, is being increasingly influenced by a multiple-systems approach to decision-making, a perspective strongly rooted in psychology and neuroscience. The integration of these disparate theoretical approaches and methodologies offers exciting potential for the construction of more accurate models of decision-making.     

跨期决策中的维度差异偏好：眼动证据

在跨期决策研究领域,虽然基于维度的跨期模型得到了一些源自结果检验和过程检验的证据支持,但此类模型所假设的维度间差异比较的心理过程尚缺乏直接的过程证据。本研究通过两个眼动实验,系统考察了相关眼动指标对维度差异偏好的预测效应。结果发现,根据基于维度的权衡模型可有效拟合出个体在跨期决策中的维度差异偏好,并且反应时、眼跳注视熵和静态注视熵等指标均与维度差异偏好负相关,而基于维度的注意分配与维度差异判断正相关。这些研究发现支持了本研究所提出的跨期眼动模型的相关假设,证实了维度差异偏好与跨期决策的认知加工过程之间的联系,为基于维度的跨期模型提供了更直接的过程证据,并为今后跨期决策的眼动模型发展指明了新方向。     

Neuroeconomics,health psychology,and the interdisciplinary study of preventative health behavior

The goal of this article is to introduce readers to theories, tools, and evidence from the field of neuroeconomics and to describe how health psychology and neuroeconomics can be mutually informative in the study of preventative health behaviors. Preventative health behavior here refers to both individual actions that impact one's health (e.g., exercise) and broader behavioral patterns, such as those captured in personality constructs. Although neuroeconomic researchers have begun to incorporate health‐relevant behaviors into their studies, the full potential of this research to inform preventative health models is as yet unrealized. What is needed to “translate up” is the unification of rich theoretical content from health psychology with investigations by neuroeconomic researchers of the decision‐making process during health‐relevant choices. We identify choice as a central, shared feature across models of preventative health behavior that can serve as an inroad for neuroeconomics to contribute to existing models and highlight commonalities that might not otherwise be apparent. A central premise of our argument is that, because health decisions are nearly always multiply determined, a more precise and mechanistic understanding of how choices are made is an important but understudied topic in health psychology. A partnership between health psychologists and neuroeconomic researchers can yield valuable insights into how preventative health choice is made and to identify targets and methods for intervention.     

时间分解效应及其对跨期决策的影响

本文基于经典的分解效应, 提出并证实了一种影响人们判断与决策中时间知觉的新因素--时间分解效应。共包括两个研究, 分别在“时间够用”判断与跨期决策中检验了该效应的存在性与稳固性。实验结果表明：(1)相比未分解条件, 分解条件下的被试判断给定时间内完成某项任务的时间更够用, 即时间知觉更长。该效应受到任务难度的调节, 在较简单的任务中时间分解效应更显著; (2)在跨期决策中, 分解操纵增大了人们对较大较远的收益(larger & later, LL)选项中时间延迟的知觉, 证实了时间分解效应。此外, 还发现时间分解效应会导致人们在跨期决策中更偏好较小较近的收益(smaller & sooner, SS)选项, 对时间延迟的知觉中介了这一过程。总之, 本研究不仅在理论上提出了一种新的分解效应, 同时对现实生活中的决策(如计划制定等)有重要的应用价值。     

Normative and Descriptive Models of Military Decisions to Deploy Precision Strike Capabilities

Precision strike capabilities represent a significant and highly controversial part of present day military operations. And yet, there is a surprising dearth of empirical research on military decision making in this domain. In this article, we therefore review different psychological perspectives on how these decisions can be made. Specifically, we compare the application of normative models of judgment and choice against the empirical research on human decision making, which suggests that people are more likely to employ heuristic strategies. We suggest that several features of decision tasks in the precision strike domain evoke the use of intuitive (heuristic) decision making whereas other features such as the sometimes unfamiliar (or novel) nature of the decision task requires analytic strategies to generate good solutions. Therefore, decisions about precision strike capabilities are best made with a mixture of intuitive and analytic thought, a mode of thinking known as quasirationality.     

社会排斥影响跨期决策的心理机制探讨

社会排斥广泛存在于社会生活中, 并对人们的认知、情感、行为等诸多方面产生严重的消极影响。它会损害个体的认知功能, 导致个体不能进行理性的判断和决策。研究发现被排斥的个体在风险决策时倾向于风险寻求。跨期决策和风险决策都与人类的生存和发展息息相关, 但目前并不清楚社会排斥是否以及如何影响跨期决策。因此, 本研究拟从跨期决策的评估和选择两个阶段展开研究, 揭示社会排斥对其的作用机制。并在此基础上, 运用tDCS技术激活社会排斥的调节脑区, 以改善被排斥个体的跨期决策能力。研究结果将揭示人际情境因素与决策者个人因素对跨期决策的联合作用机制, 帮助被排斥者提高跨期决策能力, 提高被排斥者的个人成就和生活质量。     

Choice Environment, Market Complexity, and Consumer Behavior: A Theoretical and Empirical Approach for Incorporating Decision Complexity into Models of Consumer Choice

Most empirical models of choice in economics and consumer research assume that the decision maker assesses all alternatives and information in a perfect information-processing sense. The complexity of the choice environment, the ability of the individual to make complex decisions, and the effect of choice context on the decision strategy are generally not considered in statistical model development. One of the reasons for this omission is that theoretical literature on choice complexity and imperfect ability to choose that has developed in psychology and behavioral decision theory (BDT) literatures has not been translated into empirical econometric analysis. Second, the data used in economics and consumer research studies tend to be somewhat different from the data structures used in psychology and BDT literatures. In this paper we outline a theoretical model that simultaneously considers task complexity, effort applied by the consumer, ability to choose, and choice. We then construct a measure of task complexity and incorporate this in an analysis of a number of data series based on the random utility framework. We also examine the performance of our measure of task complexity in a composite data set that allows for increased variability in factors affecting decision context. Our approach provides a mechanism to link research in BDT and econometric modeling of consumer choice. Our findings suggest that task complexity does affect inferences about choice model parameters and that context effects, such as complexity, have a systematic impact on the parameters of econometric models of choice. The modeling approach provides a mechanism for inclusion of results from psychology and BDT in traditional economic models of consumer choice.     

跨期选择中偏好反转的心理机制

通过直接测量近期和远期选择中备选项激活的情绪、间隔的时间知觉及对备选项金额差异和时间间隔的重视程度,以探究跨期选择中偏好反转产生的心理机制。结果表明：（1）近期选择中,备选项激活的情绪强度差异显著,而远期选择中两者的差异不显著;（2）近期和远期选择中,情绪强度差异和时间知觉差异能够预测偏好反转的发生。研究结果支持了偏好反转的情绪激活差异假说和时间知觉差异假说。     

自我对跨期决策的影响——基于个人-集体主义文化视角

跨期决策是指发生在不同时期的收益和成本的权衡决策。已有研究发现, 决策者的自我意识对跨期决策有着重要影响, 个人?集体主义文化在自我形成中起着重要作用, 但当文化因素被纳入自我对跨期决策影响的研究中时, 三者间的关系显得模糊不清。为了从已有文献中厘清三者间的理论关系, 我们基于个人?集体主义文化视角, 综述了自我对跨期决策影响的相关研究：介绍了跨期决策的相关概念及理论, 详细阐述了跨期决策中的两种自我理论(多重自我模型和自我连续性模型), 探讨了个人?集体主义文化对自我的影响, 并简要介绍了个人主义与集体主义文化下人们的跨期决策偏好差异及其心理机制。最后, 分别从研究内容、研究方法与实际应用三个方面, 提出了将个人?集体主义文化这一因素纳入自我对跨期决策影响过程、系统地考虑三者间关系的研究构想, 以期为未来研究提供新的思路, 深化人们对跨期决策机制的理解。     

金钱崇拜对个体跨期决策偏好的影响

采用经典跨期选择任务范式,以个体的金钱喜好差异为切入点,通过问卷调查和行为实验考察金钱崇拜对个体跨期决策偏好的影响。结果发现:(1)个体的金钱崇拜水平与其跨期折扣倾向显著负相关;(2)无论跨期决策任务的难易和兑现时间的长短,高金钱崇拜者更倾向于选择较大的延迟奖赏,而低金钱崇拜者更倾向于选择较小的即时奖赏;(3)高、低金钱崇拜者的跨期决策反应时没有明显的差异,但二者的反应时都明显地受到任务难度的影响,即在容易条件下的反应速度显著快些。结果表明,个体的金钱崇拜水平在跨期决策过程中发挥着重要的作用,致使高金钱崇拜者更愿意等待延迟大奖赏的到来。     

Interrupting the cascade: orienting contributes to decision making even in the absence of visual stimulation

Most systematic studies of human decision making approach the subject from a cost analysis point of view and assume that people make the highest utility choice. Very few articles investigate subjective decision making, such as that involving preference, although such decisions are very important for our daily functioning. We have argued (Shimojo, Simion, Shimojo, & Scheier, 2003) that an orienting bias effectively leads to the preference decision by means of a positive feedback loop involving mere exposure and preferential looking. The illustration of this process is a continually increasing gaze bias toward the eventual choice, which we call the gaze cascade effect. In the present study, we interrupt the natural process of preference selection, but we show that gaze behavior does not change even when the stimuli are removed from observers' visual field. This demonstrates that once started, the involvement of orienting in decision making cannot be stopped and that orienting acts independently of the presence of visual stimuli. We also show that the cascade effect is intrinsically linked to the decision itself and is not triggered simply by a tendency to look at preferred targets.     

时间感知在跨期决策中的作用——时间决策模型的新探索

“时间”是跨期决策的“必需品”, 人们感知到的延迟时间决定跨期决策的结果。近年来, 研究者发现“时间长度感知”、“时间资源感知”和“时间框架感知”是时间感知作用于跨期决策的主要方式。时间感知的神经作用机制包含微观层面和宏观层面两种。“对数/指数时间折扣模型”、“感知时间基础模型”及“多模态漂移扩散模型”解释了时间感知的作用方式。然而, 现有理论模型还存在诸多局限, 主要包括“长短时距预测偏差”和“实际决策与预期决策偏差”两个方面。因此, 深入探讨时间感知影响跨期决策的基本方式, 分析现有理论模型的局限性并提出整合的机制框架具有十分重要的意义。未来研究亟需进一步整合时间感知的理论模型, 开展脑机制与应用方面的研究, 从深层揭露时间感知的作用本质, 帮助个人与社会更理性地决策。     

Do you look to the future or focus on today? The impact of life experience on intertemporal decisions

In this research, we investigate the impact of significant life experiences on intertemporal decisions among young adults. A series of experiments focus specifically on the impact of experiencing the death of a close other by cancer. We show that such an experience, which bears information about time, is associated with making decisions that favor the long-term future over short-term interests (Studies 1 and 2). Underlying this effect appears to be increased salience and concreteness regarding one’s future life course, shifting focus away from the present toward the long run (Studies 3 and 4). Finally, we explore the shift caused by a cancer death of a public figure and examine its stability over time (Study 5). Implications for research on intertemporal decision making and the impact of life events on perceptions and preferences are discussed.