A timely account of the role of duration in decision making

The current work takes a general perspective on the role of time in decision making. There are many different relationships and interactions between time and decision making, and no single summary can do justice to this topic. In this paper we will describe a few of the aspects in which time and decision making are interleaved: (a) temporal perspectives of decisions--the various temporal orientations that decision-makers may adopt while making decisions, and the impact of such temporal orientations on the decision process and its outcomes; (b) time as a medium within which decisions take place--the nature of decision processes that occur along time; (c) time as a resource and as a contextual factor--the implications of shortage in time resources and the impact of time limits on decision making processes and performance; (d) time as a commodity--time as the subject matter of decision making. The paper ends with a few general questions on the role of duration in decision making.     

Temporal expectation and information processing: a model-based analysis

People are able to use temporal cues to anticipate the timing of an event, enabling them to process that event more efficiently. We conducted two experiments, using the fixed-foreperiod paradigm (Experiment 1) and the temporal-cueing paradigm (Experiment 2), to assess which components of information processing are speeded when subjects use such temporal cues to predict the onset of a target stimulus. We analyzed the observed temporal expectation effects on task performance using sequential-sampling models of decision making: the Ratcliff diffusion model and the shifted-Wald model. The results from the two experiments were consistent: temporal expectation affected the duration of nondecision processes (target encoding and/or response preparation) but had little effect on the two main components of the decision process: response-threshold setting and the rate of evidence accumulation. Our findings provide novel evidence about the psychological processes underlying temporal-expectation effects on reaction time.     

Seeing the Forest or the Trees: Implications of Construal Level Theory for Consumer Choice

Like many important theories that were originally tested in one domain, construal level theory has broadened the notion of temporal distance to psychological distance and examined the wide ranging implications of this construct on evaluation and behavior. This commentary seeks to take a step back to admire the “forest” that has been created and suggest additional extensions and implications along the different stages of consumer decision making: goal pursuit, evaluation by way of consideration‐set formation and receptivity, and finally choice influenced by context, comparability of options, and post‐choice happiness and regret.     

心理距离视角下的行为决策

决策是指决策者对将产生不同结果的多个备择方案的评估与选择。无论决策结果涉及的是金钱、健康、环境或是其他事物,它们都同时具有多重属性,如发生的概率,发生的时间,发生的地点,发生在谁身上等,这些属性会和结果量一起影响人们对结果效用的评价和对备择方案的选择。以往有关风险决策、跨期决策和社会决策的理论分别探究结果的概率属性、时间属性和人际属性如何与结果量一起共同决定人们的效用评估与选择,并提出了各自不同的决策模型。然而,心理距离理论则认为,决策结果的概率、时间、空间、人际等属性本质上都可被表征为结果在决策者心中的心理距离。这意味着风险、跨期和社会决策模型有可能经由心理距离而得以统一。近几年来,众多研究围绕这一思想开展了一系列实验研究,分析了各种心理距离的同质性,探索了基于心理距离的心理折扣现象及其规律,探讨了时间、概率、人际、空间距离对个体决策的影响。在此基础上,未来研究还应更加重视对多特征决策的研究,探索心理距离之间的替换率和通币问题,探究心理距离的本质及其整合方式,以期形成统一的决策理论模型。     

因果与权重：决策的眼动模型

结合眼动注视的漂移扩散模型可较好描述个体的决策行为,但尚存两个问题未得解决：注视与决策的因果关系以及决策过程中累积证据的权重问题。本研究采用基于注视的操纵范式考察了基于价值的决策中注视与决策的关系,发现操纵被试对选项的注视时间可影响其选择,注视操纵主要影响决策后期时程,且模型参数估计结果更支持近因模型。研究结果支持了漂移扩散模型的近因假设,为今后的模型发展指明了新方向。     

概率贴现和时间贴现在人脑中的分离

本研究运用ERP技术来检验概率贴现和时间贴现是否反映了相同的神经机制过程。在本研究中,我们在一个刺激中同时操纵概率贴现（风险vs.安全）和时间贴现（1个月后vs.今天）水平。通过对两个过程上的ERN以及全时间段的ERP分析来确定它们是否反映了相同的认知过程。结果发现,这两者在ERN上存在差异,同时这两个效应在ERP的时程和出现的电极点上都存在差异。这些差异表明这两者可能包含着不同的神经机制过程。     

A Hierarchical Multi‐Attribute System Approach to Personnel Selection

In this paper, an approach to decision making in managing human resources that integrates multi‐attribute decision making techniques with expert systems is described. The approach is based on the explicit articulation of qualitative decision knowledge which is represented by a tree of attributes and decision rules. The decision making process is supported by DEXi, a specialized expert system shell for interactive construction of the knowledge base, evaluation of options, and explanation of the results. Practical use of the shell is illustrated by an application in the field of personnel selection for a top manager position.     

时间感知在跨期决策中的作用——时间决策模型的新探索

“时间”是跨期决策的“必需品”, 人们感知到的延迟时间决定跨期决策的结果。近年来, 研究者发现“时间长度感知”、“时间资源感知”和“时间框架感知”是时间感知作用于跨期决策的主要方式。时间感知的神经作用机制包含微观层面和宏观层面两种。“对数/指数时间折扣模型”、“感知时间基础模型”及“多模态漂移扩散模型”解释了时间感知的作用方式。然而, 现有理论模型还存在诸多局限, 主要包括“长短时距预测偏差”和“实际决策与预期决策偏差”两个方面。因此, 深入探讨时间感知影响跨期决策的基本方式, 分析现有理论模型的局限性并提出整合的机制框架具有十分重要的意义。未来研究亟需进一步整合时间感知的理论模型, 开展脑机制与应用方面的研究, 从深层揭露时间感知的作用本质, 帮助个人与社会更理性地决策。     

时间距离对于验证性信息加工的影响

研究基于解释水平理论考察时间距离对于验证性信息加工的影响, 即在个体和组织决策情境中, 人们倾向于偏好选择和高估与自身观点和决策相一致的信息, 而不是非一致性信息。通过4个情境决策实验, 研究结果一致表明近期决策会提高信息搜寻和评估中的验证偏差, 而远期决策会降低它们的验证偏差, 知觉到的决策确定性在其中起到部分中介作用(实验1b)。解释水平(实验2)和期许性/可行性表征(实验3)分别在时间距离对验证性信息加工的影响中起到调节作用, 结果依次表明在低解释水平(高可行性-低期许性特征)条件下, 时间距离与验证性信息加工的负相关关系会得到显著增强, 而在高解释水平(高期许性-低可行性特征)条件下, 时间距离与验证性信息加工的负相关关系会得到显著降低。     

Does the brain calculate value?

How do people choose between options? At one extreme, the 'value-first' view is that the brain computes the value of different options and simply favours options with higher values. An intermediate position, taken by many psychological models of judgment and decision making, is that values are computed but that the resulting choices depend heavily on the context of available options. At the other extreme, the 'comparison-only' view argues that choice depends directly on comparisons, with or even without any intermediate computation of value. In this paper, we place past and current psychological and neuroscientific theories on this spectrum, and review empirical data that have led to an increasing focus on comparison rather than value as the driver of choice.     

Anterior insula activity predicts the influence of positively framed messages on decision making

The neural mechanisms underlying the influence of persuasive messages on decision making are largely unknown. We address this issue using event-related fMRI to investigate how informative messages alter risk appraisal during choice. Participants performed the Iowa Gambling Task while viewing a positively framed, negatively framed, or control message about the options. The right anterior insula correlated with improvement in choice behavior due to the positively framed but not the negatively framed message. With the positively framed message, there was increased activation proportional to message effectiveness when less-preferred options were chosen, consistent with a role in the prediction of adverse outcomes. In addition, the dorsomedial and the left dorsolateral prefrontal cortex correlated with overall decision quality, regardless of message type. The dorsomedial region mediated the relationship between the right anterior insula and decision quality with the positively framed messages. These findings suggest a network of frontal brain regions that integrate informative messages into the evaluation of options during decision making. Supplemental procedures and results for this article may be downloaded from http://cabn.psychonomic-journals.org/content/supplemental.     

助推目标实现：时间标记的动力效应

时间标记是指日常生活中所有突出的独特性事件。个体在经历当下的时间标记或期待未来的时间标记时, 其追求目标的动机水平得到提高, 并表现出更多的目标相关行为, 即时间标记具有一种动力效应。时间标记可能增加了个体对不同时间自我之间的分离感, 继而通过自我效能感、保持一致的自我形象、损失规避及缩小差距等心理过程提高追求目标的动机。未来研究应进一步探讨时间标记在动力效应中的角色定位及动力效应的持续时间、探究时间标记动力效应的普适性、检验可能的心理机制并在实践领域开展时间标记助推行为决策的应用研究。     

Take the first heuristic, self-efficacy, and decision-making in sport

Can taking the first (TTF) option in decision-making lead to the best decisions in sports contexts? And, is one's decision-making self-efficacy in that context linked to TTF decisions? The purpose of this study was to examine the role of the TTF heuristic and self-efficacy in decision-making on a simulated sports task. Undergraduate and graduate students (N = 72) participated in the study and performed 13 trials in each of two video-based basketball decision tasks. One task required participants to verbally generate options before making a final decision on what to do next, while the other task simply asked participants to make a decision regarding the next move as quickly as possible. Decision-making self-efficacy was assessed using a 10-item questionnaire comprising various aspects of decision-making in basketball. Participants also rated their confidence in the final decision. Results supported many of the tenets of the TTF heuristic, such that people used the heuristic on a majority of the trials (70%), earlier generated options were better than later ones, first options were meaningfully generated, and final options were meaningfully selected. Results did not support differences in dynamic inconsistency or decision confidence based on the number of options. Findings also supported the link between self-efficacy and the TTF heuristic. Participants with higher self-efficacy beliefs used TTF more frequently and generated fewer options than those with low self-efficacy. Thus, not only is TTF an important heuristic when making decisions in dynamic, time-pressure situations, but self-efficacy plays an influential role in TTF.     

Decision processes in temporal discrimination

The processing dynamics underlying temporal decisions and the response times they generate have received little attention in the study of interval timing. In contrast, models of other simple forms of decision making have been extensively investigated using response times, leading to a substantial disconnect between temporal and non-temporal decision theories. An overarching decision-theoretic framework that encompasses existing, non-temporal decision models may, however, account both for interval timing itself and for time-based decision-making. We sought evidence for this framework in the temporal discrimination performance of humans tested on the temporal bisection task. In this task, participants retrospectively categorized experienced stimulus durations as short or long based on their perceived similarity to two, remembered reference durations and were rewarded only for correct categorization of these references. Our analysis of choice proportions and response times suggests that a two-stage, sequential diffusion process, parameterized to maximize earned rewards, can account for salient patterns of bisection performance. The first diffusion stage times intervals by accumulating an endogenously noisy clock signal; the second stage makes decisions about the first-stage temporal representation by accumulating first-stage evidence corrupted by endogenous noise. Reward-maximization requires that the second-stage accumulation rate and starting point be based on the state of the first-stage timer at the end of the stimulus duration, and that estimates of non-decision-related delays should decrease as a function of stimulus duration. Results are in accord with these predictions and thus support an extension of the drift–diffusion model of static decision making to the domain of interval timing and temporal decisions.     

Group‐analytic network process for balancing stakeholder views on fire protection of steel‐framed buildings

To select appropriate fire protection options for buildings during their design stage, economic, safety, environmental, and societal criteria need to be accounted for. The divergent and sometimes conflictual desires from different fire design stakeholders involved in the process present a multicriteria decision problem. Design decision criteria and fire protection options can be interdependent, and so there is a need to manage these desires with an advanced decision analysis technique, thereby reducing uncertainties in the complex decision‐making process. The aim of this paper is to use the weighted/geometric mean method‐analytic network process (W/GMM‐ANP) to balance the opinions of fire design stakeholders extracted from 42 structured stakeholder interviews on selecting the most suitable fire protection option for buildings constructed of steel frames. Different categories of interdependent decision elements were developed from 22 design decision criteria and 5 proposed fire protection options to produce a network of decision clusters for multicriteria decision analysis. In the synthesis and ranking of fire protection options, the W/GMM‐ANP accounted for the multiple interdependencies of weighted and unweighted stakeholder desires and managed the complexity of the decision‐making problem. The technique is proposed for approaching suitable group decisions in structural fire design of steel‐framed buildings as well as other performance‐based engineering decision making that may involve multidisciplinary stakeholders.     

Revisiting the Bay of Pigs and Vietnam Decisions 25 Years Later: How Well Has the Groupthink Hypothesis Stood the Test of Time?

Even after a quarter of a century, the groupthink hypothesis remains an influential framework for understanding the origins of group decision making fiascoes. Much of the original empirical evidence for this hypothesis was derived from a series of incisive qualitative studies of major policy fiascoes, including the ill-fated Bay of Pigs invasion and U.S. military escalation of the Vietnam War. In the 25 years since the groupthink hypothesis was first formulated, new evidence, including recently declassified documents, rich oral histories, and informative memoirs by key participants in these decisions have become available to scholars, casting new light on the decision making process behind both the Bay of Pigs and Vietnam. Much of this new evidence does not support Janis's original characterization of these processes. In particular, it suggests that dysfunctional group dynamics stemming from group members' strivings to maintain group cohesiveness were not as prominent a causal factor in the deliberation process as Janis argued. Instead, the evidence suggests that the decision making process was heavily influenced by how Presidents Kennedy and Johnson construed their options. Both Kennedy and Johnson tended to evaluate their alternatives primarily in terms of their political consequences, especially the desire to avoid what they construed as unacceptable political losses and potential damage to their reputations. Viewed in aggregate, this new evidence suggests that the groupthink hypothesis overstates the influence of small group dynamics, while understating the role political considerations played in these decisions. Thus, although both decisions may have been seriously flawed, the logic of this failure should be attributed to political psychological rather than social psychological processes.     

Choice-Process Satisfaction: The Influence of Attribute Alignability and Option Limitation

This research investigates how choice-process satisfaction is influenced by limitation of choice option and by the types of features used to represent the options. Studies of choice satisfaction have focused on how satisfied the decision maker feels about the choice that has been made and have overlooked the importance of the process through which the decision maker makes a choice, i.e., choice-process satisfaction. We show that the comparability of choice options through alignable features increases choice-process satisfaction, whereas option limitation (i.e., making one option unavailable from a set of equally attractive options) decreases choice-process satisfaction. Further, this decrease in satisfaction, relative to all options being available, occurs for people who are given a set of options in which the difference features are alignable (i.e., differences of a corresponding dimension) but not for people who are given a set of options in which the difference features are nonalignable (i.e., differences of unique dimensions). We propose that alignable differences are easier to compare and have more weight in people's attribute processing, and thus give rise to a perception of a greater amount of information about the option set that is relevant for choice. Making an option unavailable in this case would have a bigger impact than in a situation in which all options have nonalignable differences. Nonalignable differences are difficult to process and are less likely to make people aware that there is very much information about the options for decision making. This explanation and the interaction effect between option limitation and feature alignability are tested in four experiments.     

情绪对跨期决策的影响：来自单维占优模型的解释

跨期决策的研究表明, 积极情绪和消极情绪状态下的跨期决策行为存在显著差异。本研究从单维占优模型的角度, 揭示情绪影响跨期决策的过程机制。实验1通过诱发被试的积极和消极情绪, 发现积极情绪下被试的时间折扣率更低, 有更强的选择延迟选项的倾向。实验2运用“模拟天平任务”测量了跨期决策时的维度间差异比较, 检验单维占优模型对情绪影响跨期决策的解释性。结果发现, 维度间差异比较在情绪对跨期决策的影响中起中介作用。实验3a和实验3b分别运用时间和金钱启动策略操纵维度间差异比较过程, 再次验证单维占优模型的解释作用。 结果发现, 情绪对跨期决策的效应随着时间和金钱的启动而消失, 进一步支持了维度间差异比较的中介作用。本研究从决策过程的角度, 揭示了情绪影响跨期决策的心理机制, 并进一步为单维占优模型对跨期决策行为的解释性增加了支持性证据。     

整合模型还是占优启发式模型? 从齐当别模型视角进行的检验

实验从齐当别模型的视角,通过对决策过程反应时的考察分别对以累积预期理论(cumulative prospect theory)为代表的整合模型和启发式模型家族的重要成员--占优启发式模型(priority heuristic)--进行检验。结果表明,决策过程反应时并未随着占优启发式模型所假定的决策步骤的增加而变慢;也未随着选项之间整体值差值的变大而变快;模糊决策过程的反应时反而快于风险决策过程的反应时。无论是以累积预期理论为代表的整合模型还是占优启发式模型均不能满意地描述和解释人们的实际决策过程,而齐当别模型则能解释大部分实验结果。文章建议多角度、多指标探讨人们的决策过程,检验、修改、完善,以及建立新的启发式模型或决策过程模型(process model),以增进对人们如何进行风险决策的理解。     

Effects of ego-depletion on choice behaviour in a multi-attribute decision task

When a choice has to be made between two options and decision-relevant information about the options is completely available, the Take-The-Best (TTB) heuristic only considers the most important information that discriminates between the options and bases its choice on it. Choices in line with TTB thus allow a decision maker to save time and effort, and they may become more likely therefore under conditions of limited self-control strength (ego-depletion). Ego-depletion was manipulated prior to making a series of choices in a multi-attribute decision task. Choices could have been in line with either TTB or more effortful compensatory decision strategies. As predicted, compared with non-depleted participants, ego-depleted participants were more likely to make TTB-consistent choices.